Is Pace Trubisky Proof

[Sugashane]

It just depends on how often the Bears win. If the Bears win a Super Bowl and own the division then it won't matter if Tru even develops. 

I'll go as far as saying Tru could never even get a 2nd contract from Chicago (let's say he was traded before the draft while entering his 5th year option) and Pace would be allowed to draft another if the Bears were winning enough, and he felt Tru was the limiting factor of the offense and the defense was carrying the team.  

The only thing that could get Pace  fired soon - scandals side - is missing the playoffs each of the next few seasons IMO.  

Edited May 15, 2019 by Sugashane

[abstract_thought]

The answer to this entirely depends on how they handle Trubisky's next contract. They'll contend while he's on a rookie deal. If he sucks and they sign him to a mega deal, the competitive window will close quickly and people will point fingers at Pace.

[soulman]

8 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

No one has suggested that you base the entire evaluation on Trubisky.

The entire point is that he has built a roster and hired a coach that would make a mistake at QB survivable, which was  not the prevailing thought in 2017.

If I understand your point you're asking whether Pace gets demerit points for not only drafting Mitch but for trading up a spot to do it.  Right?

My answer is no.  I won't ding him for that not only because of all positions college QBs may be the toughest to evaluate but also because IMHO Mitch was the right pick for us and for this offense.

If by chance Mitch should fail I would still be looking at Pace's overall success in rebuilding a roster that became a mess under Fox and for hiring Nagy and his staff as well as being able to retain Vic Fangio as a DC until he finally got his shot as a HC.

The door on the past closed for good once Fox was terminated.  IMHO that was the final step in Phillips and GMcC handing over the keys to football ops to Pace.  The first step was bypassing Fox completely to draft Mitch to begin with.

This is only how I view it.  Others may see it differently.

[WindyCity]

19 minutes ago, soulman said:

If I understand your point you're asking whether Pace gets demerit points for not only drafting Mitch but for trading up a spot to do it.  Right?

My answer is no.  I won't ding him for that not only because of all positions college QBs may be the toughest to evaluate but also because IMHO Mitch was the right pick for us and for this offense.

If by chance Mitch should fail I would still be looking at Pace's overall success in rebuilding a roster that became a mess under Fox and for hiring Nagy and his staff as well as being able to retain Vic Fangio as a DC until he finally got his shot as a HC.

The door on the past closed for good once Fox was terminated.  IMHO that was the final step in Phillips and GMcC handing over the keys to football ops to Pace.  The first step was bypassing Fox completely to draft Mitch to begin with.

This is only how I view it.  Others may see it differently.

He 100% should get demerits for it. That would be a massive expenditure of draft capital and a bad evaluation to boot.

I won't call for his job, but it would be a body blow to his tenure.

Again it depends on where Trubisky settles out, Eli was the 3rd best QB in his draft and has 2 rings and was a really good NFL QB. If that happens Pace will be celebrated, but if the Bears do not win anything and Trubisky is clearly the 3rd best QB in the draft then he should take some heat.

But at this point, at least for 3 more years I think he has made himself Trubisky proof.

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, abstract_thought said:

The answer to this entirely depends on how they handle Trubisky's next contract. They'll contend while he's on a rookie deal. If he sucks and they sign him to a mega deal, the competitive window will close quickly and people will point fingers at Pace.

The contract is a good point,

That is why I thought the Kaplan rumor that they wanted to extend him after this season was crazy. At this moment he is a league average QB paying him would cripple the team becuase RIGHT NOW you are not getting big money production from him.

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

At this point taking him over Watson is pure homerism.

Watson had a great, and far superior, season last year while getting killed behind a brutal OL.

We are not assessing the thought process, we are assessing the results, the NFL is a results business not a process business.

How was Watsons season far superior when they put up damn near identical #s?  I can at least understand all the Mahommes stuff bc he just won MVP.  Watson had a higher passer efficiency rating.  Tru had a higher QBR.  Watsons playoff performance was garbage.  Tru had one of the best first playoff games for a QB ever.  Of the 4 first timers, Tru's was far superior to the other 3, and the only other one to have a positive performance was Mahommes.  I'm sorry, bu RT anybody trying to say drafting Tru is a negative for Ryan Pace needs to reassess their assessment.  4th in flipping QBR.  1 was the MVP, 2 was the guy who probably should have won MVP, and 3 was a 2 time superbowl champ who is going into the HOF on the first ballot.  I say all this as a Watson guy.  Get real man.

[WindyCity]

14 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

How was Watsons season far superior when they put up damn near identical #s?  I can at least understand all the Mahommes stuff bc he just won MVP.  Watson had a higher passer efficiency rating.  Tru had a higher QBR.  Watsons playoff performance was garbage.  Tru had one of the best first playoff games for a QB ever.  Of the 4 first timers, Tru's was far superior to the other 3, and the only other one to have a positive performance was Mahommes.  I'm sorry, bu RT anybody trying to say drafting Tru is a negative for Ryan Pace needs to reassess their assessment.  4th in flipping QBR.  1 was the MVP, 2 was the guy who probably should have won MVP, and 3 was a 2 time superbowl champ who is going into the HOF on the first ballot.  I say all this as a Watson guy.  Get real man.

QBR takes into account wins and loses, which is a team stat, which will always bias it.

Watson

More yards

More TDs

Less Turnovers

More Yards Per Completion

Higher Completion Percentage

More rushing yards and TDs.

 

All of that while be being battered behind the worst line in football coming off an ACL.

He had a superior season last year.  They are not miles apart like Mahomes, but they are apart.

Edited May 15, 2019 by WindyCity

[Pool]

Yes Pace is Trubisky proof. If Trubisky were a total bust then maaaaaaaaybe his job would be in jeopardy but Trubisky has performed well enough that I don't think there's much of a chance of that happening.

[Superman(DH23)]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

QBR takes into account wins and loses, which is a team stat, which will always bias it.

Watson

More yards

More TDs

Less Turnovers

More Yards Per Completion

Higher Completion Percentage

More rushing yards and TDs.

 

All of that while be being battered behind the worst line in football coming off an ACL.

He had a superior season last year.  They are not miles apart like Mahomes, but they are apart.

He played 2 more games Windy.  MT had a higher TD%.  MT attempted 70 less passes.  Watson was throwing to perhaps the best WR corps in the NFL, while the Bears were much improved, they weren't even in the top 12 in the league.  MT had the better ypr.  So yeah Watson had better bulk stats, again 2 more damn games. And QBR does not factor wins.  It used to be highly subjective, it's now an actual black box calculation that highly factors 3rd down and 4th qtr efficiency, where Tru was off the charts.  All year long until Tru had the injury his and Watsons #s were essentially the same.  After Tru came back they were essentially the same.  The difference was the 2 games that Tru missed Watson was terrific in. 

Just to drive this point home, bc it's an argument that drives me nuts, Watson avg 294 total ypg, Tru avg 260 total ypg, however Watson lost 24 ypg in sacks, Tru lost 9 ypg.  So in reality Watson produced 270 ypg to Trus 251.  Not a big difference there.  Watson fumbled 9 times, Tru fumbled 6.  If we add fumbles + Ints Watson is 18 and Tru is at 17.  I'm sorry but the narrative that Watson was clearly better than Tru is just that, a narrative.  Yeah Watsons oline was bad, was it 40 more sacks bad than the Bears?  I have a hard time believing that.  The fact is that Tru is just a better escape artist than Watson.  That's why he avg 6.2 ypr to Watsons 5.1.  Total TDs.  In 2 more games Watson had 4 more total TDs.  Just.  Stop.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Superman(DH23)

[Heinz D.]

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

This is assuming he stays on that schedule.

I am not trying to be hard on Trubisky, I am trying to determine how much heat Pace should take if he clearly picked the worse QB in that draft?

You're not, huh?

Worst QB in that draft? 

Interesting...

[soulman]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

He 100% should get demerits for it. That would be a massive expenditure of draft capital and a bad evaluation to boot.

I won't call for his job, but it would be a body blow to his tenure.

Again it depends on where Trubisky settles out, Eli was the 3rd best QB in his draft and has 2 rings and was a really good NFL QB. If that happens Pace will be celebrated, but if the Bears do not win anything and Trubisky is clearly the 3rd best QB in the draft then he should take some heat.

But at this point, at least for 3 more years I think he has made himself Trubisky proof.

You're entitled to yours.  I have mine.  And they aren't the same. 

Except why bother to even ask for an opinion if when it's expressed you decide to debate it?

It's only an opinion.

[soulman]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The contract is a good point,

That is why I thought the Kaplan rumor that they wanted to extend him after this season was crazy. At this moment he is a league average QB paying him would cripple the team becuase RIGHT NOW you are not getting big money production from him.

Maybe that would make an extension cheaper now than after he won an NFC Championship or a Super Bowl.  That could be a motive for doing it now.

[WindyCity]

14 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

You're not, huh?

Worst QB in that draft? 

Interesting...

Jim Kelly was the 3rd best QB in the 83 draft.

Eli was the 3rd best in the 2004 draft.

[WindyCity]

14 hours ago, soulman said:

You're entitled to yours.  I have mine.  And they aren't the same. 

Except why bother to even ask for an opinion if when it's expressed you decide to debate it?

It's only an opinion.

Because that is what we do on a message board, debate things.

[dll2000]

Windy meant best of Mahomes, Watson and MT which is fair in sense that they were in same class and Bears had first choice. 

But as a class it turns out people overlooked that QB class in favor of ones before and one coming after.

I think Mariota and Winston haven't lived up to anything.  Nobody would trade MT for either right now.  I certainly wouldn't.  People still believe, but they are average at best and likely below average.

Goff,  Wentz and Lynch. Goff has looked like garbage and looked great.  He has not been good in crunch time or perhaps he is simply bad when he lacks a run game as so much if his success comes off play action.

  Wentz looked great for a while, but he can't stay healthy and that's a problem.  Could be really good if you were healthy and playing doesn't help.  He also didn't look good early last year and his back up Foles has often played as good or better than him with same personnel. 

Lynch has been hot garbage.  

Prescott has been average as well, but he might be most consistent of group.  Take away an all world RB though and he comes to Earth real fast. 

That brings us to 2017 class.

Mahomes is best young QB in NFL.  I think he showed that last year.  He might tail off some as his team potentially implodes, but his talent was certainly on display and evident in 2018.  That is a tough and unfair standard to hold someone to - Most talented guy in league.  

Watson, like Wentz, has looked great when healthy, but hasn't been able to stay healthy and that is a problem.  Hard to to be great in training room. 

MT sat and watched in practice behind Mike Glennon all offseason and then got to hand off for remainder of regular season under Fox.  Next year he got keys and was up and down.  It is a multiple offense, but you can only master so many concepts in limited time.  

Nagy plan was to start season with power run game with Howard and RPO out of mostly two TE sets. Then work in more complicated and difficult concepts as season went. Well Shaheen got hurt and Howard and/or O line decided to mostly stink at running and run blocking for first half of season (Howard for whole season).  

Guess what Mitch you get to now carry us offensively out of three WR sets featuring a rookie 2nd round pick, a guy coming off an ACL and one of Atlanta's back up receivers - all new to system as you are. (Not saying they aren't good, but it is what it is). Oh and we havent really practiced that look very much, but season is here now so what are we supposed to do?  Every war plan doesn't survive enemy contact.   Sorry and good luck bud. 

He still did okay considering he completely lacked run game or experience.  What he had going for him was defense kept getting him ball back for more tries.  

I see a guy that is smart, talented and works hard.  I don't see a guy as arm talented or atheltic as Mahomes, but really no one is except maybe young Buffalo QB (forgot his name) but highly unlikely Buffalo QB puts it all together like Mahomes did last year.  Buffalo QB doesn't seem to have same accuracy either and certianly doesnt have surrounding cast or coaching. 

But Mitch is plenty talented enough to be very good if he continues to learn game.  He is every bit as athletic and talented as Drew Brees and Drew Brees is one of best ever.  He just doesnt have Brees knowledge and who knows if he will get there.  Odds say no, but he could.  To me that's his ceiling right now and its quite a ceiling. Remember Chargers were fine with getting rid of Brees very early in his career, granted he had an injury but still they did it.  Nobody knew Brees would get that good in New Orleans under Payton.  Again will that happen for MT?  Highly unlikely, but not inconceivable either.