Is Pace Trubisky Proof

[WindyCity]

Just now, SLCbear said:

Cheaper not cheap  ... starter quality qbs not ever going to be cheap 

Dak's not an awful comp but can't see even the crapboys overpaying like that  ! 

Pace and MT >>>>

"Cheaper" does not allow you to keep this level of talent around him.

Right now he makes 7/season if you multiply that by 4 you are removing guys at other spots and need to go cheap in other areas.

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I would really like to see the Bears draft someone on day 3 next year to at least get another young guy in the pipeline.

There is literally no downside and it could provide them some insurance.

Downside is you have really hit on most of draft picks to restock roster because of MT, Mack, Miller and Montgomery trades.

I think thing with QBs now is you get them as rookies as go with it until they succeed or fail completely.  If they succeed great.  That's your QB until he is too hurt or old.   If they fail then you start over with another rookie via draft slot or trade up.

But I guess if for some reason a QB with high potential falls to 3rd why not?  Doesn't seem to many of those and they are hard to identify.  

 

 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, SLCbear said:

...and solid coaching

Meh

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, SLCbear said:

...and solid coaching

I sat in 3rd row behind bench for two NBA finals games for Bulls and like 5 Milwaukee Bucks games.

Coaches did zero in game coaching for all 7 games.  Zero.  Nothing.  Nada.  Zip.   They gave zero advice.  Drew up zero plays.  Called zero plays during the game.  Made zero adjustments.  During commercials and time outs they didn't even talk to players.  Sometimes they pretended to during a huddle, but nothing was actually happening if you were there and could hear which I was.  

Players did everything.  Now Tex Winters I am sure laid the schemes and plays in pre-season, but for a veteran team it is pretty much auto pilot from there.  

I know not all NBA coaches do that, Tibbs definitely doesn't do that, and probably none do it for young teams, but that is my first hand experience for 8 NBA games including 2 finals games.  

They watched the game and made player substitutions which star players could refuse.  That's it.  

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by dll2000
math error

[SLCbear]

7 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I sat in 3rd row behind bench for two NBA finals games for Bulls and like 5 Milwaukee Bucks games.

Coaches did zero in game coaching for all 7 games.  Zero.  Nothing.  Nada.  Zip.   They gave zero advice.  Drew up zero plays.  Called zero plays during the game.  Made zero adjustments.  During commercials and time outs they didn't even talk to players.  Sometimes they pretended to during a huddle, but nothing was actually happening if you were there and could hear which I was.  

Players did everything.  Now Tex Winters I am sure laid the schemes and plays in pre-season, but for a veteran team it is pretty much auto pilot from there.  

I know not all NBA coaches do that, Tibbs definitely doesn't do that, and probably none do it for young teams, but that is my first hand experience for 8 NBA games including 2 finals games.  

They watched the game and made player substitutions which star players could refuse.  That's it.  

 

Pop   Brad Stevens   Eric Spolstra Coach K ... overall schemes ability to make in-game/game to game playoff series adjustments are critical when you don't have 5 all-stars (2 top 5 players, the best 2way shooter in Klay and super-utility Draymond) like Golden State ...along with designed plays out of timeouts

The Ws could player manage without Kerr bc of their insane collection of complimentary talent ... Bill Russell player-coached my Celtics to a title 

Phil Jackson was good at managing the superstar ego, and boning Buss's playboy daughter ....he is sooooooo overrated imo  !!!  His stint as Knicks GM demonstrated his overall handle on the game ...

[topwop1]

On 5/15/2019 at 11:48 AM, WindyCity said:

I got into this debate on another board and I thought it was an interesting conversation.

Has Pace built the team and his resume to the point that he can survive the Trubisky evaluation and trade?

 

It was a pretty common thought that if Pace blew the Trubisky evaluation that he was going to get fired, but with the Mack trade and the Nagy hire has he protected himself enough. My thought is that he has drafted well enough and made the right coaching hire to the point where he can survive the Trubisky situation.

At this moment the Trubisky pick has to be looked at as a bad evaluation. On top of Trubisky currently being the 3rd best QB from that draft class, Pace doubled down on his evaluation by trading up. Now Trubisky may take a big step this season and move closer to Watson, but it does not appear he is ever going to be the best QB in the draft.

IMO yes as long as they keep stringing together seasons where they are competing for a playoff spot and/or championship.  

MT10 is not yet there in terms of polish but he is certainly more talented than some QBs have won Super Bowls in the past (i.e. Flacco, Eli, etc.) so while he may never be as good as Mahomes (Perennial All Pro) or Watson (who I'm not entirely sold on) you can definitely still win with this guy and I think that's all that matters at the end of the day.  It's not about stats it's about wins.

Back to the main point, I think Pace has done enough to warrant more trust if the Trubisky experiement were to ever fail, but I personally don't see that happening. Mitch is too talented, smart, hungry and driven to fail.  We don't ever have to worry about him not giving his all for this team. 

[soulman]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Because that is what we do on a message board, debate things.

Yeah, I know that but what I've been responding to was the question your OP asked.  I actually read posts.  LOL

You asked: "Has Pace built the team and his resume to the point that he can survive the Trubisky evaluation and trade?"

And my responses have all been answers based on that question albeit nothing more then personal opinion because we lack anything factual that could even be debated because so far he has survived it.  Now, it he's ever fired for it then in my way of looking at things we can debate whether it was fair or not.  Otherwise an opinion is just that and neither right or wrong provided there are no facts to debate.  In this case there are none, only opinions.

Sorry.....I'm really not trying to be a PIA and the Big Lebowski meme was only meant as a joke. 

And even if I am truly a PIA at least I'm not a nasty "troll like" one.   

[soulman]

5 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

Uhhh... Pace has already doubled-down on Trubisky being good enough to build a win-now-and-****-the-future team,  that would be quadrupling down

 

I _think_ Trubisky is going to be good, or at least good enough, but I would be really upset if they did that early.  This team is built with a short window, and I'm prepared to see them go balls to the wall for 2019 and 2020, and then a big adjustment period after that where the team is letting big names walk and probably regressing. 

Oh no doubt he has.  He's very committed to him as well he should be at least for now.  I also believe this year will tell us a lot about how well Mitch is progressing.  But also IMHO Mitch doesn't need to be statistically superior to others in his draft class to show he was the right pick.  All he has to do is win.   Isn't that how Tom Brady went from a 6th round afterthought to possibly a GOAT HOF QB?

I don't know whether or not Pace would even think of approaching Mitch on an extension as early as 2020 but if not he'll have his 5th year option to contend with which in Mitch's case would be the same as a one year Franchise Tag, so maybe $30 mil or so?  If after 2019 he plans to extend him he'll more than likely want to do that prior to the 2021 season to avoid that kind of cap hit, right?

Extending him in 2020 won't impact our current cap for 2020 if most if not all of the new money comes in 2021 and thereafter.  And as I've posted before I think we're looking at a major increase in the cap in 2021 and thereafter.  To be clear, I'm not saying we should extend Mitch now.  He still has to earn that extension.  I'm only saying that if Pace decides to do that negotiations may happen earlier than we think.

[soulman]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Obviously, what Trubisky becomes independently of anyone else is what Pace will truly be judged on.

But, I think a comparison between him and others in the draft class is fair when discussing Pace's ability to evaluate the QB position.

 

The Glennon move was an epic turd and if the Trubisky move becomes less than we hope that would be 2 misses at the position.

In Pace's defense Glennon proved to be much worse than expected but then so did John Fox and Dowell Loggains.  And AZ gave him $8 mil for 2 years after we let him go, then released him in March to clear cap room.  Two weeks later Gruden signed him for $2 mil.  So if we're gonna use Glennon as a yardstick of Pace's ability to evaluate QBs there are others who would also need to appear on that list including "guru" Chucky.

Besides we now know signing Glennon was a major part of the "smoke screen" Pace was creating surrounding his Trubisky pick.  He was a one year place holder whom Fox would accept because an immobile pocket passer was his antiquated idea of his perfect QB.  I'm gonna go even deeper with this and surmise Pace didn't want Fox or Glennon to succeed.  All he wanted to do was get through the 2017 season as best he could without appearing to totally tank the season then dump both of them which of course he did.

But I'll also reinforce that IDGAF how Mitch's stats compare to Mahomes or Watson as long as he wins.  That's the only stat that has anything to do with actually winning a championship.  If Mitch can do that no one will care about the rest.

[soulman]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think Pace gets another QB because of the team he built regardless of the QB spot. This time around he will have Nagy, which should help.

If 2018 Trubisky is all Trubisky becomes, I think that would be pretty devastating to Pace, because of how committed he was to the pick, and Nagy would become the more powerful member of the team.

And this I believe would be a wise move.

As we become more cap starved due to having to extend our core players coming off to their rookie deals what we have to pay for a competent #2 QB will come into play.  At $5 mil per year Daniel may seem pricey but overall given what he can provide both as a mentor, on the sidelines on game day, and as a player when needed he's been worth it IMHO.  On top of that prices for good vet backups will only rise in the future.

So even if Mitch is becoming that franchise QB we all hope he can be we're still gonna need another young QB in the pipeline we can develop.

The way Pace wheels and deals during his drafts and how he picks based on BPA it would not shock me at all to see him use a higher pick on a rookie QB in 2020 if one falls to him he ranks ahead of all other options as he did with Ridley, or maneuvering to trade up for one he likes.  Few winning teams are gonna be willing to go it without two QBs capable of starting and winning games no matter how good their #1 is.

Garoppolo kept NE winning while Brady was out.  Philly had both Wentz and Foles.  Conversely when GB lost Rodgers they tanked.

So for many reasons I believe we need to draft another good young QB to back Mitch or possibly replace him if he fails to win.

[Heinz D.]

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Jim Kelly was the 3rd best QB in the 83 draft.

Eli was the 3rd best in the 2004 draft.

Well, then that's entirely different. And, it's the point I often make about Pace drafting Trubisky. If Mitch ends up a guy who can win you a Super Bowl, then I don't see how there's any fallout from Pace's move at all. 

[Sugashane]

7 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Well, then that's entirely different. And, it's the point I often make about Pace drafting Trubisky. If Mitch ends up a guy who can win you a Super Bowl, then I don't see how there's any fallout from Pace's move at all. 

Right. The only question will be if he is the Jim McMahon - who was good enough to won with an insanely stacked team - or if he is a guy who will drive your team to postseason success. 

 

On a rookie deal the former is just fine, but he will need to continue to progress or else his 2nd contract could be poor value. I think he will grow and be worth the big deal though. 

[Sugashane]

7 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Well, then that's entirely different. And, it's the point I often make about Pace drafting Trubisky. If Mitch ends up a guy who can win you a Super Bowl, then I don't see how there's any fallout from Pace's move at all. 

Right. The only question will be if he is the Jim McMahon - who was good enough to won with an insanely stacked team - or if he is a guy who will drive your team to postseason success. 

 

On a rookie deal the former is just fine, but he will need to continue to progress or else his 2nd contract could be poor value. I think he will grow and be worth the big deal though. 

[Heinz D.]

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The Glennon move was an epic turd and if the Trubisky move becomes less than we hope that would be 2 misses at the position.

I'm tired of this argument as it is nonsense. Pace always intended to draft a quarterback. Glennon was paid low end starter money to be average/high quality backup for a year, or two, if the rookie QB needed that much time to get onto the field. Nothing, and I repeat, NOTHING suggested that Glennon would collapse in the way he did. A lot of people at the time thought he could still be a good starter. It was essentially like a draft pick that busted--except, he was never seen as a long term solution anyhow. Glennon also provided a valuable smokescreen for the draft. 

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think Pace gets another QB because of the team he built regardless of the QB spot. This time around he will have Nagy, which should help.

If 2018 Trubisky is all Trubisky becomes, I think that would be pretty devastating to Pace, because of how committed he was to the pick, and Nagy would become the more powerful member of the team.

So, your assumption is, obviously, that Trubisky is going to fail. What do you base that on?

6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would really like to see the Bears draft someone on day 3 next year to at least get another young guy in the pipeline.

There is literally no downside and it could provide them some insurance.

They're going to have to draft a QB early next year. Daniel's age, and the salary cap, demand it. 

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

"Cheaper" does not allow you to keep this level of talent around him.

Right now he makes 7/season if you multiply that by 4 you are removing guys at other spots and need to go cheap in other areas.

Continually swapping an older quarterback for a younger, cheaper one is an interesting conversation to have, and somewhat separate from this Trubisky talk, I think. 

For it to work, I think you'd have to build a truly formidable team outside of the position, and draft absolutely correctly at the QB spot every time. There's also continuity to consider.

It's not impossible to make it work that way. But I think there's a very good reason that nobody does it. 

[playthrough2001]

The guy just finished his second year.  He’s already been in two offensive systems.  He was considerably better in year two.  The team won 12 games and made the playoffs.  When the money was on the line in the playoff game, he put the team in position to win.  

Suggesting Trubisky was a “bad evaluation” is just nonsense at this point.  If the Bears were dumb enough to fire Pace, he would be snatched up immediately.  History is littered with a lot of great QBs that did not come out of the gate producing at a high level so a little patience and understanding of context goes a long way.  

 

Edited May 17, 2019 by playthrough2001