Is Pace Trubisky Proof

[soulman]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Right. The only question will be if he is the Jim McMahon - who was good enough to won with an insanely stacked team - or if he is a guy who will drive your team to postseason success. 

 

On a rookie deal the former is just fine, but he will need to continue to progress or else his 2nd contract could be poor value. I think he will grow and be worth the big deal though. 

Most teams who win Super Bowls are "insanely stacked" and have the benefit of remaining healthy throughout the year.  It's either that or have a very deep roster which given a hard cap is practically impossible any longer.

Despite his many personal flaws Mac knew how to win games despite Ditka actually holding him back at times.  He set NCAA passing records at BYU and IMHO has was a much better passer than he'll ever be given credit for but all of that was packaged in an undersized body that couldn't handle the abuse NFL QBs took back then.  Now days he'd be far better protected and a guy like Charles Martin would be suspended for a year and fined up the *** for his stunt.

But that also brings us to the point of a need for two QBs who can play at a high level and win as Philly was able to do with Wentz and Foles.  We have our Wentz but need a Foles.  IMHO Daniel is a capable #2 but not good enough to beat top teams in playoff competition.  Mitch has the size and speed to either handle some hits or avoid them but as with any mobile passer he's always gonna be vulnerable to injuries so we still need a Foles type #2.

My belief is basically that any evaluation of Mitch's ceiling isn't possible yet.  For all intents he's just come off his rookie year in an unfamiliar offense that's very complex compared to anything he's run before.  I saw a lot of mistakes last year but they also lessened throughout the year as he progressed and his late drive in the playoff game against Philly was as good as anyone could expect from any vet QB.  So he has progressed already.

IMHO these discussions we're having now would best be put on the back burner for another year.  He's still on his rookie deal through 2020 when Pace will undoubtedly pick up his 5th year option as well then negotiate an extension for 2021 and beyond.  Mitch will still have to earn it but unless he regresses badly this season I don't see any chance that it won't work out that way.  Pace is building his offense around him.

Edited May 17, 2019 by soulman

[soulman]

16 hours ago, WindyCity said:

"Cheaper" does not allow you to keep this level of talent around him.

Right now he makes 7/season if you multiply that by 4 you are removing guys at other spots and need to go cheap in other areas.

Mitch's 2019 cap hit is just under $8 mil and his 2020 cap his is just over $9 mil.

But when he gets his extension his cap hit won't immediately increase three or four fold in 2021.

A significant amount will be his signing bonus that will be spread out over 5 years (or more) so at most only 20% of that will be a cap charge in 2021 and each year thereafter and other options could include annual roster bonuses much like his current contract contains.  Those could then be reduced by a restructure or offset by trade.  In a typical extension his initial salary will be low then escalate from year two on so we can adjust for it over time.

And the final factor is a new CBA taking place in 2021 which should greatly increase the cap from where we are now.  As it stands the 2020 cap is projected at around $200 mil.  Another increase in 2021 coupled with increases in the revenue sharing percentage could easily push it to $220 mil or more by then.  That alone is $32 mil more than the 2019 cap and it will potentially increase by $10-$12 mil a year thereafter and I'm being conservative.

Windy you've been around the game for a long time so you know this.  I'm sure Pace and Laine have mapped out their rising cap costs vs the hard cap and projected them out over the next 3-5 years that will be impacted most by rising player costs and new money deals.  I don't want to seem flippant or downplay the importance of proper cap management but my feeling is they "got this" and we can trust them to manage their cap well.

[WindyCity]

8 hours ago, soulman said:

Mitch's 2019 cap hit is just under $8 mil and his 2020 cap his is just over $9 mil.

But when he gets his extension his cap hit won't immediately increase three or four fold in 2021.

A significant amount will be his signing bonus that will be spread out over 5 years (or more) so at most only 20% of that will be a cap charge in 2021 and each year thereafter and other options could include annual roster bonuses much like his current contract contains.  Those could then be reduced by a restructure or offset by trade.  In a typical extension his initial salary will be low then escalate from year two on so we can adjust for it over time.

And the final factor is a new CBA taking place in 2021 which should greatly increase the cap from where we are now.  As it stands the 2020 cap is projected at around $200 mil.  Another increase in 2021 coupled with increases in the revenue sharing percentage could easily push it to $220 mil or more by then.  That alone is $32 mil more than the 2019 cap and it will potentially increase by $10-$12 mil a year thereafter and I'm being conservative.

Windy you've been around the game for a long time so you know this.  I'm sure Pace and Laine have mapped out their rising cap costs vs the hard cap and projected them out over the next 3-5 years that will be impacted most by rising player costs and new money deals.  I don't want to seem flippant or downplay the importance of proper cap management but my feeling is they "got this" and we can trust them to manage their cap well.

There is going to be a cap crunch next year no matter what they do in terms of structure and bonuses.

When Trubisky's deal comes up even if they are creative with numbers there is no way to reduce 28 million/season into much less than a 18-20 million dollar cap hit.

If they get to the point where Mitch needs to be paid the team is going to fundamentally have to change how they are building and how they are paying and extending players.

[WindyCity]

For example Jimmy G's lowest cap hit is this season is 19.5 million, and that was after a 37 million cap hit in 2018.

You just cannot hide that level of money even in creative ways.

[soulman]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

There is going to be a cap crunch next year no matter what they do in terms of structure and bonuses.

When Trubisky's deal comes up even if they are creative with numbers there is no way to reduce 28 million/season into much less than a 18-20 million dollar cap hit.

If they get to the point where Mitch needs to be paid the team is going to fundamentally have to change how they are building and how they are paying and extending players.

First year cap hit shouldn't be anywhere near that large.  More like half that.  But we're still so far off from that I don't want to project it now.  Next year will be soon enough.

We had a cap crunch this year and Pace and Laine handled it.  I already assume we'll be cap tight in 2020 as well so we may lose a few key vets and I think we've already projected who some of them may be.

But just to use an example; If the cap increases by $10-$12 mil and only Amukamara is released that's $20-$22 mil alone plus whatever amount we might rollover.....if any.  But that's 2020 and in some cases new money won't hit the cap all that much 'til 2021.

I agree with you that for now we aren't gonna have a ton of free cap space but we're now more likely to be releasing higher cap vets than signing them in FA.  Now it's all about keeping our own guys and leaning on draftees and UDFAs to ascend to core starting positions.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

For example Jimmy G's lowest cap hit is this season is 19.5 million, and that was after a 37 million cap hit in 2018.

You just cannot hide that level of money even in creative ways.

Hide, no but you can defer bigger numbers via how a deal is structured.

JG had a $37 mil 2018 cap hit because SF used it's huge amount of free cap space to give him a $28.8 mil roster bonus and a much smaller signing bonus.  Had that been his signing bonus only $5.6 mil would have hit the 2018 cap and when combined with his $6.2 mil salary and $600k workout bonus his 2018 cap hit would have been $12.4 mil and it could have been even less with a lower salary.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/jimmy-garoppolo-14472/

So even though his deal has an AAV of $27.5 mil his first year cap hit could have been just 45% of that or possibly even less.  Because SF had plenty of free cap space in 2018 they chose to feed the cap monster now rather than later.  It's highly unlikely we would do it that same way.

I realize it's about kicking the can down the road but that's what contract negotiations and cap management is all about.  If you can defer cash payments and/or cap hits against a rising income stream and a rising cap and do it well you can keep much of your core in place throughout their prime years.  Then hopefully the 30 year old guys will be replaced by 25 year old guys just entering their prime.

 

Edited May 17, 2019 by soulman

[WindyCity]

39 minutes ago, soulman said:

First year cap hit shouldn't be anywhere near that large.  More like half that.  But we're still so far off from that I don't want to project it now.  Next year will be soon enough.

We had a cap crunch this year and Pace and Laine handled it.  I already assume we'll be cap tight in 2020 as well so we may lose a few key vets and I think we've already projected who some of them may be.

But just to use an example; If the cap increases by $10-$12 mil and only Amukamara is released that's $20-$22 mil alone plus whatever amount we might rollover.....if any.  But that's 2020 and in some cases new money won't hit the cap all that much 'til 2021.

I agree with you that for now we aren't gonna have a ton of free cap space but we're now more likely to be releasing higher cap vets than signing them in FA.  Now it's all about keeping our own guys and leaning on draftees and UDFAs to ascend to core starting positions.

Currently the Bears are 4 million over the cap with a 10 million bump factored in. If they release Amukamara they will have 4 million in cap space.

This year was tight, but next year is the serious year for the Bears. This year they had limited room, but had almost no on internally that was going to command money. Amos and Callahan were not priority players.

Next year they have real FAs and extension eligible players.

Edited May 17, 2019 by WindyCity

[WindyCity]

If you structure the deal with only a 12.4 million dollar cap hit in year 1, in the next 4 years you have average cap hits of 31.3 million/year.

1. Players do not like deals that are that significantly backloaded.

2. It is hard to pay out the guaranteed money that way as that is most often dealt with in the first 3 years of a deal.

[soulman]

Just now, WindyCity said:

Currently the Bears are 4 million over the cap with a 10 million bump factored in. If they release Amukamara they will have 4 million in cap space.

 

I haven't looked at 2020 numbers yet and I won't until I see who we extend and what other roster changes we make.  So I can neither confirm or deny that.

Number one it's a waste of time for me this early and number two Pace and Laine are well aware of what their 2020 cap projections look like so why the phuc are we worrying about it now?  They get paid millions to know that.  We don't.

Once we have our 53 man roster set and any extensions handed out this summer are in the mix then I can look at stuff and make some educated guesses as to who our cap casualties may be but right now we don't for sure what 53 will be on this years roster let alone next years.

[WindyCity]

1 minute ago, soulman said:

I haven't looked at 2020 numbers yet and I won't until I see who we extend and what other roster changes we make.  So I can neither confirm or deny that.

Number one it's a waste of time for me this early and number two Pace and Laine are well aware of what their 2020 cap projections look like so why the phuc are we worrying about it now?  They get paid millions to know that.  We don't.

Once we have our 53 man roster set and any extensions handed out this summer are in the mix then I can look at stuff and make some educated guesses as to who our cap casualties may be but right now we don't for sure what 53 will be on this years roster let alone next years.

It really is pretty simple math, we do not have to have blind faith in Pace and Laine.

Next year is going to be extremely cap tight on a projected 200 million dollar cap. There are going to be significant cuts to make room for extensions.

There are currently no deals on the Bears books that will add significant salary cap to the 2020 cap. The only thing that would, would be a Floyd extension.

[soulman]

Just now, WindyCity said:

If you structure the deal with only a 12.4 million dollar cap hit in year 1, in the next 4 years you have average cap hits of 31.3 million/year.

1. Players do not like deals that are that significantly backloaded.

2. It is hard to pay out the guaranteed money that way as that is most often dealt with in the first 3 years of a deal.

1) Like and get aren't the same thing.  Players sign for what they can get.

2) Signing bonuses are paid out upon signing but are amortized over the life of the deal.  Roster bonuses are paid in the year they've been earned and charged against the cap in that year.  A lot of cap casualties come about as a result of a roster bonus due to them in March.

The AAV of the deal will not change.  Only how it impacts the cap each year and whether or not any monies are paid out after the guarantee has been met.  So in reality AAV doesn't mean much unless a player plays out his entire contract.  The AAV up to the end of all guarantees paid is a more accurate way to view actual cost in dollars.  In JG case it's $59.9 mil so his AAV over the first two years is about $30 mil per year.  Then it declines while his cap cost rises. So they front loaded year one because they could and then have more manageable increasing cap costs in years 2-5.

If he busts SF can release him after 2019 with only a $4.2 mil dead cap hit.

[soulman]

14 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

It really is pretty simple math, we do not have to have blind faith in Pace and Laine.

Next year is going to be extremely cap tight on a projected 200 million dollar cap. There are going to be significant cuts to make room for extensions.

There are currently no deals on the Bears books that will add significant salary cap to the 2020 cap. The only thing that would, would be a Floyd extension.

It's more complex than some realize once you toss in various types of bonuses and how those are accounted for cap wise.

That said we actually do have to have blind faith in Pace and Laine simply because they know more about their actual cap situation and how to navigate it than we can using guesstimates from Spotrac or OTC.  Those always come with a proper disclaimer because they may or may not be 100% accurate.

In addition it's Pace and Laine who control the roster and the contracts not us so all we are is arm chair GMs playing our forum games.  They have to play it for real and that's why I'm not gonna lose sleep over 2020 or any other year.  Pace seems motivated to keep his younger core intact and I will trust him to do just that not that he won't have some challenges on his hands to accomplish it.

But now that we're being seen as a winning organization it may be easier to attract the best UDFAs and established vets like HHCD looking to resurrect their careers may be more willing to sign short term deals here and plug holes we need to fill.  Who could have predicted that signing back in Feb. or Lynch returning for $1.5 mil to fill yet another hole.  $5 mil for both.  That's less than the guaranteed money it would have cost to keep Callahan and a whole lot less than what Amos was guaranteed.

My point is we can't possibly know every little nuance of their plans or all of the tricks a team can use to manipulate the cap.  We only get the big picture.  They have all of the details.

[Heinz D.]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

There is going to be a cap crunch next year no matter what they do in terms of structure and bonuses.

When Trubisky's deal comes up even if they are creative with numbers there is no way to reduce 28 million/season into much less than a 18-20 million dollar cap hit.

If they get to the point where Mitch needs to be paid the team is going to fundamentally have to change how they are building and how they are paying and extending players.

Is the answer to never pay a franchise quarterback, then? Not being snarky, simply alluding to what I mentioned before. 

Now it should be clear why the Raiders traded Mack...

[abstract_thought]

23 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Is the answer to never pay a franchise quarterback, then? Not being snarky, simply alluding to what I mentioned before. 

Now it should be clear why the Raiders traded Mack...

It depends. If you have a generational top 4-5 QB, he's probably worth paying. If not, you end up in a weird situation where you hope for a few great draft classes in a row because that's the only way you can contend.

The question Pace needs to answer is whether Trubisky is good enough to keep the Bears in contention when many of the pieces around him go away. Could Trubisky lead a team like the Packers or Vikings to the playoffs?

[Heinz D.]

36 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

It depends. If you have a generational top 4-5 QB, he's probably worth paying. If not, you end up in a weird situation where you hope for a few great draft classes in a row because that's the only way you can contend.

The question Pace needs to answer is whether Trubisky is good enough to keep the Bears in contention when many of the pieces around him go away. Could Trubisky lead a team like the Packers or Vikings to the playoffs?

Matt Ryan isn't a top 4-5 guy, but if Dmitrioff does well around him, the Falcons are in contention. Should the Falcons be paying Ryan, or moving on?