So, the 2019 Chiefs...

[game3525]

Quote

Better defense means less shootouts which in turn means less TDs.

It depends on how much better the defense actually is. A team can "improve" and still be bad. The Saints were like this for years. 

 

[Shanedorf]

"Mike Clay of ESPN laid out the statistical case for why regression toward the mean is likely after the kind of outlier season Mahomes had last year: Mahomes was in the Top 15 seasons in NFL history with 13.3 yards per completion, 8.8 yards per pass and 8.6 percent of his passes going for touchdowns.

Every other quarterback who has had a season in the Top 15 in any of those statistical categories has declined the following year "

 

hardly a revelation, but interesting just the same

[Bearerofnews]

4 hours ago, Chiefer said:

Nelson isnt good.

I see it as a lateral move

Nelson is better than any CB on Chiefs roster. He just is. He had better raw numbers and better advanced metrics. If fuller left and nelson stayed, i believe KC fans would be saying the same that Nelson is better than Fuller. Either way; KC can have Nelson, Fuller, Breeland and Josh Norman and their secondary is still not in the same neighborhood as the Chargers.

[Buckweath]

32 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Nelson is better than any CB on Chiefs roster. He just is. He had better raw numbers and better advanced metrics. If fuller left and nelson stayed, i believe KC fans would be saying the same that Nelson is better than Fuller. Either way; KC can have Nelson, Fuller, Breeland and Josh Norman and their secondary is still not in the same neighborhood as the Chargers.

Kendall Fuller is clearly better than Steven Nelson but why should I be surprised by just another of your clueless takes.

You literally won't find one Chiefs fan who has ever thought Nelson is better. Most Chiefs fans actually wanted Nelson gone.

I personnally think Nelson is decent but when Blake Bortles tries to pick on you again and again, you know that's not a lockdown corner by any means.

Not a fan of getting a 31-year-old Norman but if the Chiefs acquired Patrick Peterson, their secondary would be pretty much equal to the Chargers whether you like it or not. 

Now, I do realize that trade seems unlikely for now as he has been suspended and the Cards Gm seems to overvalue him or so say the rumors. 

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Buckweath

[Bearerofnews]

28 minutes ago, Buckweath said:

Kendall Fuller is clearly better than Steven Nelson but why should I be surprised by just another of your clueless takes.

You literally won't find one Chiefs fan who has ever thought Nelson is better. Most Chiefs fans actually wanted Nelson gone.

I personnally think Nelson is decent but when Blake Bortles tries to pick on you again and again, you know that's not a lockdown corner by any means.

Not a fan of getting a 31-year-old Norman but if the Chiefs acquired Patrick Peterson, their secondary would be pretty much equal to the Chargers whether you like it or not. 

Now, I do realize that trade seems unlikely for now as he has been suspended and the Cards Gm seems to overvalue him or so say the rumors. 

 

You lost all credibility on CB analysis when you put Fuller as equal to Desmond King. Desmond who was an all pro and the 2nd rated CB in the NFL. Takes dont get any more delusional than that. I remember all year KC fans talking up Nelson. PFF also had him rated as your highest DB and his raw numbers were the best. Just the eye test alone told me he was the best. If you go into the season with fuller as your best CB, ill be hard pressed to find worse CBs in the NFL.

[Buckweath]

16 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

You lost all credibility on CB analysis when you put Fuller as equal to Desmond King. Desmond who was an all pro and the 2nd rated CB in the NFL. Takes dont get any more delusional than that. I remember all year KC fans talking up Nelson. PFF also had him rated as your highest DB and his raw numbers were the best. Just the eye test alone told me he was the best. If you go into the season with fuller as your best CB, ill be hard pressed to find worse CBs in the NFL.

Fuller was the best slot CB in the league in the 2017-2018 season with actually a higher PFF grade than Desmond King had last year. 

I never said King wasn't clearly better last year.

But projecting into next year, I think they are comparable. I guess one would prefer to go with King because he just had the better year but Fuller being better next year wouldn't be a surprise at all. CBs, more so than other positions, fluctuate quite a bit IMO. 

PFF also didn't have Nelson rated higher than Fuller last year. 

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Buckweath

[Bearerofnews]

43 minutes ago, Buckweath said:

Fuller was the best slot CB in the league in the 2017-2018 season with actually a higher PFF grade than Desmond King had last year. 

I never said King wasn't clearly better last year.

But projecting into next year, I think they are comparable. I guess one would prefer to go with King because he just had the better year but Fuller being better next year wouldn't be a surprise at all. CBs, more so than other positions, fluctuate quite a bit IMO. 

PFF also didn't have Nelson rated higher than Fuller last year. 

 

Youre right (first for everything) Nelson was 72.1 and Fuller was 72.4. 

I mean if we are going off 2017, Casey was 1st and Trevor Williams was 10th, to go with King's 2nd in 2018. Hell in 2018 Michael Davis had a 71.2 grade. Chargers are way too stacked and deep at DB for KC to be close, even with Patrick Peterson.

This isn't me being a homer. Alot of people agree. Chargers have the best secondary in the league.

 

 

[coltstrong]

The chiefs defense wasnt as bad as people say .  they had a elite defensive line   with 3 pro bowlers  last year .   they blew up and destroyed the colts o line last year , and had tight coverage all game .     i think coaching hurt the defense .   When you have a elite offense dominating teams start throwing heavy to catch up  and get a lot of yards in garbage time to make the stats look worse .      

the offense will go down a bit , no way they put up the same numbers as last year .   they will probably still be a elite team ,maybe one more loss or two but still a playoff team that can make a run .

Edited June 2, 2019 by coltstrong

[blizofoz45]

1 hour ago, coltstrong said:

The chiefs defense wasnt as bad as people say .  they had a elite defensive line   with 3 pro bowlers  last year .   they blew up and destroyed the colts o line last year , and had tight coverage all game .     i think coaching hurt the defense .   When you have a elite offense dominating teams start throwing heavy to catch up  and get a lot of yards in garbage time to make the stats look worse .      

the offense will go down a bit , know way they put up the same numbers as last year .   they will probably still be a elite team ,maybe one more loss or two but still a playoff team that can make a run .

Ya the "everybody needs to go" crowd don't understand anything about how the NFL works.  Outside of the quarterback position, every team already has the best players available.  What you need is good gameplanning and realtime coaching after kickoff.  Reid had no choice but to fire Sutton because that defense should have been better.

Offensively I don't expect the Chiefs to be as explosive but then again they exploded on New England with a scrub RB.  That comes from the extreme talent in Mahommes and how he interacts with a sport that is biased toward quarterbacks.  They've adjusted the rules so much that average QBs looks great sometimes and the really good ones are impossible to stop.

[coltstrong]

3 minutes ago, blizofoz45 said:

Ya the "everybody needs to go" crowd don't understand anything about how the NFL works.  Outside of the quarterback position, every team already has the best players available.  What you need is good gameplanning and realtime coaching after kickoff.  Reid had no choice but to fire Sutton because that defense should have been better.

Offensively I don't expect the Chiefs to be as explosive but then again they exploded on New England with a scrub RB.  That comes from the extreme talent in Mahommes and how he interacts with a sport that is biased toward quarterbacks.  They've adjusted the rules so much that average QBs looks great sometimes and the really good ones are impossible to stop.

the only way to be a good defense today is to have a elite defensive line that can get pressure every play .  with the new rules without pressure its like playing monkey in the middle , easy throws all day the chiefs have a elite defensive line.

the giants in 07 had  average linebackers and corners but elite d - line and brady only scored 14 points  with randy moss and the best weapons of his career .   

 

the cheifs d line struggled to get to brady that is why they lost .   bad games happen  .  if they can get to brady the chiefs win the game by multiple scores .    people forget one penalty changed the game it would have been over brady got picked .   the penalty did not affect the play .

[Buckweath]

1 hour ago, coltstrong said:

The chiefs defense wasnt as bad as people say .  they had a elite defensive line   with 3 pro bowlers  last year .   they blew up and destroyed the colts o line last year , and had tight coverage all game .     i think coaching hurt the defense .   When you have a elite offense dominating teams start throwing heavy to catch up  and get a lot of yards in garbage time to make the stats look worse .      

the offense will go down a bit , no way they put up the same numbers as last year .   they will probably still be a elite team ,maybe one more loss or two but still a playoff team that can make a run .

I agree that the Chiefs defense wasn't as bad as some people say. I see some people saying it was the #31 overall D but if you're going to use stats, you should use PPG and the Chiefs' D was #24 overall.

The Chiefs D also had the most sacks in the league.

And they did have a few strong outings, the playoffs game against the Colts being one. People thought that Colts Oline was going to maul the Chiefs Dline and Luck score at will on them but the Chiefs D would have none of it.

This being said, for the most part that defense was bad. The safeties and linebackers were worst of the league bad. The run D was terrible.

It is a whole new D though this year.

It could be a good one. The Dline will be great for sure.

[coltstrong]

1 hour ago, Buckweath said:

I agree that the Chiefs defense wasn't as bad as some people say. I see some people saying it was the #31 overall D but if you're going to use stats, you should use PPG and the Chiefs' D was #24 overall.

The Chiefs D also had the most sacks in the league.

And they did have a few strong outings, the playoffs game against the Colts being one. People thought that Colts Oline was going to maul the Chiefs Dline and Luck score at will on them but the Chiefs D would have none of it.

This being said, for the most part that defense was bad. The safeties and linebackers were worst of the league bad. The run D was terrible.

It is a whole new D though this year.

It could be a good one. The Dline will be great for sure.

 if the chiefs offense wasnt as good i think the stats would look much better .  they are not a elite defense at all but prob a middle of the pack average defense with elite pass rushers

 

they remind me of the colts defense with manning good rushers bad linebackers and corners

Edited June 2, 2019 by coltstrong

[HTTRDynasty]

Another tick in the "regression incoming" column for Mahomes.

Adjusted Interceptions 2018

Our leaders in adjusted interceptions for last season were a pair of first-year starters. Mahomes and Darnold finish with 21 adjusted interceptions apiece. That's a pretty typical league-leading total; DeShone Kizer had 23 in 2017. Mahomes had 12 official interceptions. As mentioned, he benefitted from 10 dropped/defensed interceptions, while throwing one on a Hail Mary (on the last play of the first half in a Week 9 win over Cleveland). Darnold's numbers are similar. He had 15 official picks, one behind Roethlisberger for most in the league, while benefitting from nine dropped/defensed interceptions, also one fewer than the league leaders. However, we then subtract the two Hail Mary-esque interceptions discussed earlier, plus one more pick that was tipped by a receiver, to get to a total of 21.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/adjusted-interceptions-2018

[Nightime]

2 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Another tick in the "regression incoming" column for Mahomes.

Adjusted Interceptions 2018

Our leaders in adjusted interceptions for last season were a pair of first-year starters. Mahomes and Darnold finish with 21 adjusted interceptions apiece. That's a pretty typical league-leading total; DeShone Kizer had 23 in 2017. Mahomes had 12 official interceptions. As mentioned, he benefitted from 10 dropped/defensed interceptions, while throwing one on a Hail Mary (on the last play of the first half in a Week 9 win over Cleveland). Darnold's numbers are similar. He had 15 official picks, one behind Roethlisberger for most in the league, while benefitting from nine dropped/defensed interceptions, also one fewer than the league leaders. However, we then subtract the two Hail Mary-esque interceptions discussed earlier, plus one more pick that was tipped by a receiver, to get to a total of 21.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/adjusted-interceptions-2018

That’s assuming Mahomes doesn’t improve in this area. Most second year starters throw fewer picks

It also looks like he’s gonna have Tyreek Hill, atleast for the end of the season. 

This is a stacked roster in Kansas City

Edited June 10, 2019 by Nightime

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, Nightime said:

That’s assuming Mahomes doesn’t improve in this area. Most second year players throw fewer picks

It also looks like he’s gonna have Tyreek Hill, atleast for the end of the season. 

This is a stacked roster in Kansas City

Even if he throws fewer interceptible passes, he is still likely to throw more interceptions than the 12 he had last year, since more of his interceptible passes will likely be picked off this year.

Here's a good stream of his dropped INTs last year: https://[LINK ERROR]/nxsux