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Hunter2_1

So, the 2019 Chiefs...

How will they do this season?  

160 members have voted

  1. 1. The 2019 Chiefs...

    • They consolidate - either the first or second seed in the AFC, not dropping off
      43
    • They drop off slightly - win at least 2 fewer games than last season
      98
    • They drop off markedly - miss playoffs, and end up with a record around .500 or below
      19


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On 7/11/2019 at 7:20 AM, ManningGM said:

Hmm? Kansas City was favored majorly over Indy that game. On the road, in winter-like weather conditions? No one was picking the Chiefs to win? You guys had an all-time offense last season, it would've been a major upset had y'all lost. 

Uh?

KC was only favored by 5 points. Most pundits believed the weather favored the Colts, not the Chiefs. The Colts were a very popular pick to win the game

After the 31-13 blowout, people pretended that they knew KC was gonna win all along. But I’d say about 50% of predictions had the Colts winning.

 

Many even assumed that Andrew Luck was the better cold weather QB. My oh my how wrong they were!

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Nightime said:

Uh?

KC was only favored by 5 points. Most pundits believed the weather favored the Colts, not the Chiefs. The Colts were a very popular pick to win the game

After the 31-13 blowout, people pretended that they knew KC was gonna win all along. But I’d say about 50% of predictions had the Colts winning.

 

Many even assumed that Andrew Luck was the better cold weather QB. My oh my how wrong they were!

The pundits only believed the weather favored us because we had a solid run game going on at the time. I'm sure those same pundits second guessed themselves when they didn't see any snow on the field, and once they saw that our starting safety in Hooker was inactive.

What people saw during the Divisional Round was a team that had the luxury of beating a mediocre at best, 11-5 Texans team the weekend prior. (I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Texans had no business winning the division, but I digress.) Were we the hottest team in the NFL at the time? Yes, but we also had one of the weakest schedules in the 2nd half. So to finally come face to face with an above-average team after all of that, I'm not surprised at the result. I'm more surprised at how many people had us winning that game...we were not battle tested at all during the regular season.

 

Edited by ManningGM

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4 minutes ago, ManningGM said:

The pundits only believed the weather favored us because we had a solid run game going on at the time. I'm sure those same pundits second guessed themselves when they didn't see any snow on the field, and once they saw that our starting safety in Hooker was inactive.

What people saw during the Divisional Round was a team that had the luxury of beating a mediocre at best, 11-5 Texans team the weekend prior. (I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Texans had no business winning the division, but I digress.) Were we the hottest team in the NFL at the time? Yes, but we also had one of the weakest schedules in the 2nd half. So to finally come face to face with an above-average team after all of that, I'm not surprised at the result. I'm more surprised at how many people had us winning that game...we were not battle tested at all during the regular season.

 

I didn’t see any average teams in the 2018 playoffs.

The Colts had a good team.

But not nearly enough to beat an elite team like KC. Especially not in the snow 

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This was just posted on a fan site. Everyone knows the defense will be different, but it's still a bit of a shock. Only five defensive players return to the starting lineup, and two of those are Reggie Ragland and Anthony Hitchens. Projected starters Alex Okafor, Frank Clark, Damien Wilson, Bashaud Breeland, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill were not even on the team last season.

2018 2019
Allen Bailey (DE) Alex Okafor (DE)
Chris Jones (DE) Chris Jones (DT)
Derrick Nnadi (NT) Derrick Nnadi (DT)
Dee Ford (OLB) Frank Clark (DE)
Anthony Hitchens (ILB) Anthony Hitchens (WLB)
Reggie Ragland (ILB) Reggie Ragland (MLB)
Justin Houston (OLB) Damien Wilson (SLB)
Steven Nelson (CB) Bashaud Breeland (CB)
Kendall Fuller (CB) Kendall Fuller (CB)
Eric Murray (S) Tyrann Mathieu (S)
Ron Parker (S) Juan Thornhill (S)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/7/17/20696914/dixons-ap-mailbag-all-about-steve-spagnuolos-defense

 

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I think we see a regression to 10 wins or so.

I expect we've seen Pat Mahomes best statistical season of his career already (or close to it).  Not that he's going to be bad or anything, but a regression to a more normal 35-40 TD's should be expected.

Even without Hunt and (assuming) Hill they should be formidable though.

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7 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

This was just posted on a fan site. Everyone knows the defense will be different, but it's still a bit of a shock. Only five defensive players return to the starting lineup, and two of those are Reggie Ragland and Anthony Hitchens. Projected starters Alex Okafor, Frank Clark, Damien Wilson, Bashaud Breeland, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill were not even on the team last season.

2018 2019
Allen Bailey (DE) Alex Okafor (DE)
Chris Jones (DE) Chris Jones (DT)
Derrick Nnadi (NT) Derrick Nnadi (DT)
Dee Ford (OLB) Frank Clark (DE)
Anthony Hitchens (ILB) Anthony Hitchens (WLB)
Reggie Ragland (ILB) Reggie Ragland (MLB)
Justin Houston (OLB) Damien Wilson (SLB)
Steven Nelson (CB) Bashaud Breeland (CB)
Kendall Fuller (CB) Kendall Fuller (CB)
Eric Murray (S) Tyrann Mathieu (S)
Ron Parker (S) Juan Thornhill (S)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/7/17/20696914/dixons-ap-mailbag-all-about-steve-spagnuolos-defense

 

That's not even mentioning the entirely different coaching staff and scheme.

It's pretty much a completely different defense but many people don't care and will just assume the defense will be poor because it was poor last year.

That defense is actually an unknown because it's completely different from last year but on paper it looks fair to say it should rank between 10th and 20th best defense of the league. Really strong and deep DL, below-average LBs, good safeties and average CBs (expecting a trade to add one more). That's how I see it.

 

 

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1 hour ago, theJ said:

I think we see a regression to 10 wins or so.

I expect we've seen Pat Mahomes best statistical season of his career already (or close to it).  Not that he's going to be bad or anything, but a regression to a more normal 35-40 TD's should be expected.

Even without Hunt and (assuming) Hill they should be formidable though.

If not injured, 35TDs is the absolute floor for Mahomes this upcoming season IMO.

My guess would be he will throw in the low 40s TDs.

In case you didn't know, he is by a rather big margin the favorite to win MVP.

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16 minutes ago, Buckweath said:

If not injured, 35TDs is the absolute floor for Mahomes this upcoming season IMO.

My guess would be he will throw in the low 40s TDs.

In case you didn't know, he is by a rather big margin the favorite to win MVP.

OMG, you do realize the number of QBs to throw 40+ TDs in a season all time is very small, the number of QBs to do it multiple times is even smaller.  To say that that is his floor is just ignorant.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

OMG, you do realize the number of QBs to throw 40+ TDs in a season all time is very small, the number of QBs to do it multiple times is even smaller.  To say that that is his floor is just ignorant.

They say he might be the next big thing. Just watch.

And just in case you didn't read properly I said 35 is his floor (talking only about this upcoming season).

Edited by Buckweath

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Buckweath said:

They say he might be the next big thing. Just watch.

4, there are 4 QBs with multiple 40+ TD seasons, each of those 4 only has 2.  You are being willfully ignorant if you think 40 TDs is a floor. 

Edited by Superman(DH23)

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11 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

4, there are 4 QBs with multiple 40+ TD seasons, each of those 4 only has 2.  You are being willfully ignorant if you think 40 TDs is a floor. 

You had 3 lines to read. And you couldn't read properly.

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2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

OMG, you do realize the number of QBs to throw 40+ TDs in a season all time is very small, the number of QBs to do it multiple times is even smaller.  To say that that is his floor is just ignorant.

The number of QBs that did something comparable to Mahomes in 2018 can be listed on one hand. He's already in elite company and BW did not say 40 was the floor. He said he looked for Mahomes to be the 5th QB on the list this season. 

That said, Brady has been more of a winner than a stat accumulator. He's the guy Mahomes uses as a role model. 

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3 hours ago, Buckweath said:

If not injured, 35TDs is the absolute floor for Mahomes this upcoming season IMO.

My guess would be he will throw in the low 40s TDs.

In case you didn't know, he is by a rather big margin the favorite to win MVP.

I know it's hard to imagine anything less than a stellar season from him, because that's all we've seen.  But i guarantee he is human.  The thing is that we have one season's worth of data points on the guy, and thousands of seasons from other QB's.  The odds are in favor of the guy throwing 39 TD's or less.  Is 35 the floor?  No i don't necessarily agree with that, but i haven't conducted a thorough study to say with any solid reasoning what the floor is.

But to put into context what you're saying: Drew Brees has 4 seasons of 35+ TD's.  Just four.  And tons of his seasons are 30+ TD's, but amazingly that's still not his floor because he threw just 23 two years ago.

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On 7/12/2019 at 1:23 PM, Nightime said:

Uh?

KC was only favored by 5 points. Most pundits believed the weather favored the Colts, not the Chiefs. The Colts were a very popular pick to win the game

After the 31-13 blowout, people pretended that they knew KC was gonna win all along. But I’d say about 50% of predictions had the Colts winning.

 

Many even assumed that Andrew Luck was the better cold weather QB. My oh my how wrong they were!

 

To be fair, that was more about the Chiefs weird playoff thing. If you kept the Chiefs players and gave them almost any other team's jersey, nobody would have picked the Colts in that game.

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