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So, the 2019 Chiefs...


Hunter2_1

How will they do this season?  

160 members have voted

  1. 1. The 2019 Chiefs...

    • They consolidate - either the first or second seed in the AFC, not dropping off
      43
    • They drop off slightly - win at least 2 fewer games than last season
      98
    • They drop off markedly - miss playoffs, and end up with a record around .500 or below
      19


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5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Again, that data speaks to frequency, not success.

Mahomes was actually the most accurate passer on tight window throws in the NFL last season. He just went for fewer of them. He was actually the most accurate QB on tight window throws PFF has ever tracked.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-most-accurate-nfl-qbs-by-separation-in-2018

You're trying to make AGG% mean like a dozen things that it doesn't mean.

With less attempts, efficiency goes up. Case and point lies in #2 on that list. That is just common laws of avgs. He did it less, so he had an increased success probability. When he is doing it at the upperend of the league in attempts, than we can talk about success rate.

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2 hours ago, Nightime said:

Bro, watch the tape

One guy is an MVP, the other guy is looking for his first shred of relevance since 2007

One guy is a hall of famer and one guy is a one year wonder.... who is dependent on a system that made Alex Smith look good. The other guy is the system. 

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4 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

One guy is a hall of famer and one guy is a one year wonder.... who is dependent on a system that made Alex Smith look good. The other guy is the system. 

You really have no idea if he's a one year wonder yet. He's a one year wonder only by the fact that he's played and started only one year. 

You really have no idea if he's dependent on that system because you've never seen him in any other system at the NFL level, but probably just as important, it's not like that system is going anywhere right now, so even if he were a system quarterback, it wouldn't much matter. Joe Montana may have been a "system" quarterback, but because that system never went anywhere, he won 4 super bowls. 

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19 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

NEXT GEN STATS had Mahomes as the 3rd lowest percentage of tight window throws. With only Brock Osweiler and Mullins with lower percentages. If you think this wide open passing windows will be available in 2019, then that is as bold of a prediction as there is. 

So knocking a guy for throwing it to the open man huh? For years it angered us fans when Alex Smith couldnt do that.

And yes, im predicting  Andy Reid will be able to scheme guys open.(bold prediction i know) And when he cant, Mahomes will use his eyes to manipulate coverages and get guys open.(like he did all last year, another bold prediction i know)

Edited by Chiefer
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3 hours ago, Forge said:

You really have no idea if he's a one year wonder yet. He's a one year wonder only by the fact that he's played and started only one year. 

You really have no idea if he's dependent on that system because you've never seen him in any other system at the NFL level, but probably just as important, it's not like that system is going anywhere right now, so even if he were a system quarterback, it wouldn't much matter. Joe Montana may have been a "system" quarterback, but because that system never went anywhere, he won 4 super bowls. 

Ya we won't be able to separate Mahomes from Reid and the talent around him.

No one is doubting that he's a phenomenal talent. But how good he is compared to other top guys, i.e. Russell Wilson is very hard to say.

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9 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Damien Williams and Anthony Sherman. 

Who's Got Better?

Equal to, or better:

Rams: Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee - Deeper group, as both Kupp and Woods offer premiums over Watkins/Robinson. Hill is a better deep threat than Cooks and Kelce is obviously a major upgrade over Higbee/Everett, but then comes Gurley. 

Eagles: Alshon Jeffery, Desean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Darren Sproles, Mack Hollins - Similar to the Rams in that they are much more solid across the board at receiver and have a better receiving back, despite not having a guy like Hill. Kelce edges out Ertz IMO but Goedert adds depth and versatility. 

Saints: Michael Thomas, Tedd Ginn Jr., Cameron Meredith, Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, Alvin Kamara - Receiving groups are a toss up. Kelce beats Cook, though Cook is no slouch, and Kamara is by far the better receiver to Williams. 

Browns: OBJ, Landry, Callaway, Duke Johnson, David Njoku - Wins across the board besides tight end. 

The Chiefs have an elite duo in Hill and Kelce, a decent receiving back, and then unknowns at receiver. Watkins is above average but never healthy and Robinson has never seen full time snaps. Hill/Kelce might be the best duo you’ll find, but if you’re introducing depth/running backs, then they fall behind.

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11 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

So knocking a guy for throwing it to the open man huh? For years it angered us fans when Alex Smith couldnt do that.

And yes, im predicting  Andy Reid will be able to scheme guys open.(bold prediction i know) And when he cant, Mahomes will use his eyes to manipulate coverages and get guys open.(like he did all last year, another bold prediction i know)

Its a little insane to think that Reid won't continue to be able to continue getting guys open in my opinion. He's been doing this forever. Guys like Reid just know how to scheme. Reid has a lot of faults, but he's still one of the more brilliant offensive minds we've seen in the coaching ranks. 

One of the people below Mahomes on that list was Nick Mullens for the 49ers. I bring this up because he's coached by Kyle Shanahan. Shanny hasn't proven that's a quality head coach yet, but as an offensive mind, he's certainly top shelf. And he managed to create an offense where Nick Mullens was throwing to wide open guys (per the separation rules) more often than Reid with Mahomes. Again, this is a Nick Mullens lead team that managed to throw consistently to wide open receivers, rank 13th in yards per drive, 20th in offensive points per drive, 16th in net yards per drive. For those unaware, the 49ers offense was basically George Kittle and then nobody else of note. The quarterback was Nick Mullens. The top wide receiver? Kendrick Bourne, a second year undrafted free agent with less than 500 yards receiving on the year. Dante Pettis was the best on a per game average averaging a whopping 39 yards per game. One of their running backs was good (Matt Breida), but couldn't stay healthy and only carried the ball 150 times, while the other two were not (Alfred Morris and Jeff Wilson carried the ball 180 times and yard per attempt nearly a full 1.5 yards per attempt less than Breida). That's what coaching does for you. Coaching allowed the 49ers to field what was largely an average offense on an efficiency basis against the rest of the nfl despite being led by a second year undrafted free agent quarterback with no notable NFL quality traits, a second year undrafted free agent as their top receiver, a second year undrafted free agent as their top running back, and a rookie secound round receiver as their most notable receiver on a per game average (though he couldn't fully stay healthy). I have no reason to doubt that Reid can continue what he did last year, and has largely always proven capable of doing. 

Will Mahomes be as good? That's asking a lot. But thinking he's going to fall off a cliff or something is asking a lot as well.  

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28 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

There's gonna be a dropoff, but they should win the weak division

Playoffs are anyone's game though, but they won't be a frontrunner to win the super bowl

I predict 10-6 and lose in divisional round 

It’s not a weak division.

KC shares the AFCW with the loaded Chargers

And LAC went 12-4 last year. KC still won the division, but there is absolutely nothing “weak” about the AFC West. The 2nd place AFCW team is almost a lock for the 5th seed.

The “bottom feeder” in this division has Antonio Brown at WR, Carr at QB, and a SB champion HC 

Wow. 

Edited by Nightime
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32 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Equal to, or better:

Rams: Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee - Deeper group, as both Kupp and Woods offer premiums over Watkins/Robinson. Hill is a better deep threat than Cooks and Kelce is obviously a major upgrade over Higbee/Everett, but then comes Gurley. 

Eagles: Alshon Jeffery, Desean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Darren Sproles, Mack Hollins - Similar to the Rams in that they are much more solid across the board at receiver and have a better receiving back, despite not having a guy like Hill. Kelce edges out Ertz IMO but Goedert adds depth and versatility. 

Saints: Michael Thomas, Tedd Ginn Jr., Cameron Meredith, Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, Alvin Kamara - Receiving groups are a toss up. Kelce beats Cook, though Cook is no slouch, and Kamara is by far the better receiver to Williams. 

Browns: OBJ, Landry, Callaway, Duke Johnson, David Njoku - Wins across the board besides tight end. 

The Chiefs have an elite duo in Hill and Kelce, a decent receiving back, and then unknowns at receiver. Watkins is above average but never healthy and Robinson has never seen full time snaps. Hill/Kelce might be the best duo you’ll find, but if you’re introducing depth/running backs, then they fall behind.

Yeah there is not a single group of those you named which are better than the Chiefs. 

The Chiefs just had arguably a top 5 offense in the history of the game and part of the reason is that group of weapons which is the best in the league.

Some other teams are close but Chiefs are #1.

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36 minutes ago, Nightime said:

It’s not a weak division.

KC shares the AFCW with the loaded Chargers

And LAC went 12-4 last year. KC still won the division, but there is absolutely nothing “weak” about the AFC West. The 2nd place AFCW team is almost a lock for the 5th seed.

The “bottom feeder” in this division has Antonio Brown at WR, Carr at QB, and a SB champion HC 

Wow. 

I'd bet that the AFC west finishes with the lowest number of wins

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8 hours ago, Chiefer said:

Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Damien Williams and Anthony Sherman. 

Who's Got Better?

Kelce isnt a WR. So take him out and LAR, LAC, Houston, Browns, Raiders, Cincy, Atlanta, Minn, GB... im sure i can keep going.

 

KC's pure WR group is not top 10, no one can make an argument they are. Throw in TE's they are. Throw in RB's too, they fall back out top 10. 

 

Can non Chiefs fans come and please make an argument for KC based off talent... not system or last year's production which very well could be a fluke. But purely the individual talent that would be translatable in any system as one of the top units. NOO WAY JOSE. Dont play yourselfs. Time to buckle down and get realistic up in here. Football is around the corner.  

 

Edited by Bearerofnews
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11 hours ago, Forge said:

You really have no idea if he's a one year wonder yet. He's a one year wonder only by the fact that he's played and started only one year. 

You really have no idea if he's dependent on that system because you've never seen him in any other system at the NFL level, but probably just as important, it's not like that system is going anywhere right now, so even if he were a system quarterback, it wouldn't much matter. Joe Montana may have been a "system" quarterback, but because that system never went anywhere, he won 4 super bowls. 

Right now the data says he is in fact a 1 year wonder and not the other way around. So until he proves he can do it for more than 1 year, he is merely a 1 year wonder... on the cusp of a positional fluke, an anomaly. Data tracks trends and create consistent barometers based off those trends. Right now, Mahomes doesnt have that. He very likely can be absolutely abysmal next year and beyond. Until proven otherwise, all scenarios are possible.... even the worst ones imaginable. That doesnt exist for Rivers. He has proven to be a consistent HOF qb. 

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