So, the 2019 Chiefs...

[Chiefs_5627]

1 hour ago, theJ said:

  Is 35 the floor?  No i don't necessarily agree with that, but i haven't conducted a thorough study to say with any solid reasoning what the floor is.

Settle down there Bill Nye lol

I don't get into much for predictions but it's not some outlandish statement to say that a guy who just tossed 50 TDS to throw 35 the following year. I don't get why it's so controversial. He could throw 25 for all we know but a VERY optimistic poster saying he thinks 35 is the floor is about a 2 on the homer scale compared to some of the other stuff being flung around here lately. 

[Chiefs_5627]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

To be fair, that was more about the Chiefs weird playoff thing. If you kept the Chiefs players and gave them almost any other team's jersey, nobody would have picked the Colts in that game.

I tend to lean more so with this. Colts did have the win streak and Chiefs had the crap defense so there was definitely some question but the whole "Chiefs vs Colts" playoff history had me tied in knots moreso than anything else.

[KewlBeanz]

Patrick, Reid, their systems(offense and defense-bend don’t break) will assure them a playoff bid, barring injuries of course.

[Soko]

3 hours ago, Chiefs_5627 said:

Settle down there Bill Nye lol

I don't get into much for predictions but it's not some outlandish statement to say that a guy who just tossed 50 TDS to throw 35 the following year. I don't get why it's so controversial. He could throw 25 for all we know but a VERY optimistic poster saying he thinks 35 is the floor is about a 2 on the homer scale compared to some of the other stuff being flung around here lately. 

It’s not controversial to predict 35 TDs, it’s controversial to say the floor is 35. The greatest QBs of all time threw for less than 35 more often than not. It would’ve tied for 3rd in the league in one of the most pass-happy seasons we’ve ever seen. The whole “ceiling/floor” statements are always hyperbolic (because the floor is always 0), but 35 is a stretch. 

It’s a pretty big homer take. 

[HolmesPriest]

If the defense can keep some of them stronger teams from putting up 40+ on us, there is no chance for the rest of the league. Mahomes won't have to do 50 td's to make this offence good. Tyreek Hill isn't the question. The pressure pretty much all resides on the Defense, whether it should or not  

[onejayhawk]

Meh. It's a fan take, not a homer take.

The game is pass oriented like never before. In many ways Marino's 48 TD and 5000 yards was much more impressive than Mahome's 50 and 5000. So, some stat inflation is acceptable. Bear in mind 35 is almost a full TD per game less than last season.

[Soko]

13 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Meh. It's a fan take, not a homer take.

The game is pass oriented like never before. In many ways Marino's 48 TD and 5000 yards was much more impressive than Mahome's 50 and 5000. So, some stat inflation is acceptable. Bear in mind 35 is almost a full TD per game less than last season.

It’s pass oriented like never before, and 35 TDs still would’ve been good for third in the league. 

Aaron Rodgers has had 4/11 seasons at 35 or higher. 

Tom Brady 4/17. 

Peyton Manning 4/17.

Drew Brees 4/17.

And at Mahomes’ absolute worst, if all goes to hell, he’ll do 35? Please. 

He very well may do it. But it’s not his floor.

[onejayhawk]

The point is that the you are talking 1/4 to 1/3 of a career. Yes these are elite passers, but how many of their seasons have been basically healthy? That was always the stipulation. 

I agree it isn't the floor, but it probably the norm or close to it, in this offense, with these weapons.

[Jakuvious]

11 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

It’s pass oriented like never before, and 35 TDs still would’ve been good for third in the league. 

Aaron Rodgers has had 4/11 seasons at 35 or higher. 

Tom Brady 4/17. 

Peyton Manning 4/17.

Drew Brees 4/17.

And at Mahomes’ absolute worst, if all goes to hell, he’ll do 35? Please. 

He very well may do it. But it’s not his floor.

I dont agree with Buck, exactly, because a floor should be a worst case scenario kind of thing. But you should add context to those numbers. The prediction obviously assumes Mahomes's health. The benefits still exist from last year in a strong OT duo, Reid at head coach, and Hill/Kelce/Watkins. Many of the years the QBs you list didn't hit that mark were because of clear unfavorable situations. Or poor health. Or season's in the early 2000s when running in the red zone was the league wide norm.

Take Rodgers. 4/11. Two of those years were half injured. So that's 4/9 when healthy. And 3 of those missed years were to start his career, before his first all pro or superbowl. Before elite Rodgers, really. Since he has been 4/6 when healthy. With one of the two remaining being last year when the support clearly wasnt there.

Brady, similarly, had a 5 year start to his career without them. In a run heavy league on a defense oriented Patriots team. 2 years injured. So since his first, he is 4/10 when healthy.

Peyton, again. 6 years without in the early 2000s. 4/10 once he got his first, including a 3/3 run to end his career.

This isn't about every year of Mahomes's career, it's just about next year. We know things about next year that raise the odds in ways that Peyton didn't have in 2001 or Brady in 2005 or whatever. It isn't a rushing league. The coach is there. The weapons are there. The need to score is there with our defense. Mahomes doing it next year is different from someone doing it over their career. A lot changes in 17 years. There's a lot of reasons in those different seasons that those QBs didn't pass for 35.

[Chiefer]

It must be pretty homeristic to suggest Mahones can average a little over 2 touch downs a game next season. God forbid.

If you look at the tape all you can hope for is throwing the kitchen sink at him and hope he misses some throws. Even the defensive mastermind, Belicheck could only hold him back for a half.

[SBLIII]

5 hours ago, Chiefer said:

It must be pretty homeristic to suggest Mahones can average a little over 2 touch downs a game next season. God forbid.

If you look at the tape all you can hope for is throwing the kitchen sink at him and hope he misses some throws. Even the defensive mastermind, Belicheck could only hold him back for a half.

As long he has Hill I think around 40 TDs are realistic. If Hill is out, suspended or whatever his production will drop off significantly.

 

 

[Chiefer]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

As long he has Hill I think around 40 TDs are realistic. If Hill is out, suspended or whatever his production will drop off significantly.

 

 

Hill aint suspended

And the Chiefs added another 4.3 speed WR in the draft.

Now if the defense could just get off the field on 3rd down and give Mahomes one more drive a game.

[Soko]

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I dont agree with Buck, exactly, because a floor should be a worst case scenario kind of thing. But you should add context to those numbers. The prediction obviously assumes Mahomes's health. The benefits still exist from last year in a strong OT duo, Reid at head coach, and Hill/Kelce/Watson. Many of the years the QBs you list didn't hit that mark were because of clear unfavorable situations. Or poor health. Or season's in the early 2000s when running in the red zone was the league wide norm.

Being unhealthy is a part of a worst case scenario - either for Mahomes or the players around him. It wouldn’t make sense to say “this is his floor, if everyone remains healthy, the key pieces around him don’t regress, and Reid keeps doing his thing”. Surrounding the “floor” comment with things that need to go right, just defeats the purpose of the comment.

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Take Rodgers. 4/11. Two of those years were half injured. So that's 4/9 when healthy. And 3 of those missed years were to start his career, before his first all pro or superbowl. Before elite Rodgers, really. Since he has been 4/6 when healthy. With one of the two remaining being last year when the support clearly wasnt there.

A solid stable of backs, Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham, and a strong OL isn’t what I’d call no-support, but sure, he wasn’t playing with the loaded deck that Mahomes is. But the fact that Rodgers couldn’t/can’t stay upright this whole time is a part of his floor. 

Also, it’s not like Rodgers wasn’t balling before his SB. His production beforehand was as good or better than his 2010 SB season. 

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Brady, similarly, had a 5 year start to his career without them. In a run heavy league on a defense oriented Patriots team. 2 years injured. So since his first, he is 4/10 when healthy.

I’d like to highlight this type of comment whenever a GOAT debate goes down the stats-alleyway. Anyways...

Including 07, Brady is 4/11. And you can mention the pre-era stuff, but Brady was still putting the ball downfield 520+ times in those seasons. In fact in 02’, he passed more than Mahomes did in 18’. Of course the focus/rule change comes into play with all that, but the era-stuff isn’t significant enough to nullify all those seasons. 

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Peyton, again. 6 years without in the early 2000s. 4/10 once he got his first, including a 3/3 run to end his career.

Even if we’re excluding his last season, what you said should speak volumes. 1 season at 49, followed by 6 seasons of none, and finished up with 3 straight. So 6 in a row under 35 TDs. 

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

This isn't about every year of Mahomes's career, it's just about next year. We know things about next year that raise the odds in ways that Peyton didn't have in 2001 or Brady in 2005 or whatever. It isn't a rushing league. The coach is there. The weapons are there. The need to score is there with our defense. Mahomes doing it next year is different from someone doing it over their career. A lot changes in 17 years. There's a lot of reasons in those different seasons that those QBs didn't pass for 35.

It doesn’t really work like that with “floor”, though. Because things we don’t foresee can always go wrong. 

Brady in 09 with a similar offense put up barely over half the TDs he did in 07. 

Peyton followed up his 49 TD all-time great season with 28. 

Aaron Rodgers made a huge statistical jump from 2010 to 2011 with a cast that was pretty much the same. 

So yeah, there are sometimes things we can see to point the arrow either up or down. But there are also things we can’t see that do the same, which is why the “floor” comment is going to be nuts, no matter which way it gets spun.

[ManningGM]

Eh...

Edited July 19, 2019 by ManningGM

[Chiefer]

6 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Being unhealthy is a part of a worst case scenario - either for Mahomes or the players around him. It wouldn’t make sense to say “this is his floor, if everyone remains healthy, the key pieces around him don’t regress, and Reid keeps doing his thing”. Surrounding the “floor” comment with things that need to go right, just defeats the purpose of the comment.

A solid stable of backs, Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham, and a strong OL isn’t what I’d call no-support, but sure, he wasn’t playing with the loaded deck that Mahomes is. But the fact that Rodgers couldn’t/can’t stay upright this whole time is a part of his floor. 

Also, it’s not like Rodgers wasn’t balling before his SB. His production beforehand was as good or better than his 2010 SB season. 

I’d like to highlight this type of comment whenever a GOAT debate goes down the stats-alleyway. Anyways...

Including 07, Brady is 4/11. And you can mention the pre-era stuff, but Brady was still putting the ball downfield 520+ times in those seasons. In fact in 02’, he passed more than Mahomes did in 18’. Of course the focus/rule change comes into play with all that, but the era-stuff isn’t significant enough to nullify all those seasons. 

Even if we’re excluding his last season, what you said should speak volumes. 1 season at 49, followed by 6 seasons of none, and finished up with 3 straight. So 6 in a row under 35 TDs. 

It doesn’t really work like that with “floor”, though. Because things we don’t foresee can always go wrong. 

Brady in 09 with a similar offense put up barely over half the TDs he did in 07. 

Peyton followed up his 49 TD all-time great season with 28. 

Aaron Rodgers made a huge statistical jump from 2010 to 2011 with a cast that was pretty much the same. 

So yeah, there are sometimes things we can see to point the arrow either up or down. But there are also things we can’t see that do the same, which is why the “floor” comment is going to be nuts, no matter which way it gets spun.

So whats Mahomes floor then? Since your so knowledgeable and all?