Jump to content

So, the 2019 Chiefs...


Hunter2_1

How will they do this season?  

160 members have voted

  1. 1. The 2019 Chiefs...

    • They consolidate - either the first or second seed in the AFC, not dropping off
      43
    • They drop off slightly - win at least 2 fewer games than last season
      98
    • They drop off markedly - miss playoffs, and end up with a record around .500 or below
      19


Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

So not as knowledgeable as you seem😂

Never claimed I was the smartest guy around. But it doesn’t really take much to see that even the GOATs don’t hit 35 TDs on their worst days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Being unhealthy is a part of a worst case scenario - either for Mahomes or the players around him. It wouldn’t make sense to say “this is his floor, if everyone remains healthy, the key pieces around him don’t regress, and Reid keeps doing his thing”. Surrounding the “floor” comment with things that need to go right, just defeats the purpose of the comment.

If you're including a lack of health, though, his floor, and everyone's floor, is by necessity, zero. When someone says what a floor is, it absolutely assumes health. Otherwise the whole thing becomes pointless.

We're more talking a realistic floor than a theoretical floor. Theoretically everyone's floor would be 0, while the ceiling would be whatever amount of TDs is physically possible within the time constraints of an NFL season, which would likely be something in the 100s. So yes, pieces around him can regress, but it isn't like Kelce is going to suddenly become a bottom 5 TE. It is a safe bet that he will still have a great TE. It is a safe bet that Reid will keep calling plays well, as he has for almost two decades. It is a safe bet that Hill will still be faster than 99% of the league. These are things that could, theoretically, go a different direction, but those aren't realistic things to try to factor in when deciding a floor. Maybe Kelce regresses to a low end top 10 TE or something, but he isn't going to suck. Maybe Reid designs plays a little more poorly, but he isn't going to suddenly become Brian Daboll or something.

I'm not surrounding the floor comment with things that need to go right, I'm surrounding the floor comment with things we know. If I asked you the Patriots floor for wins this year, I doubt you'd tell me 0, or even the 2 you think they'd get without Brady or something. You'd likely factor in the fact that, hey, we know they have a HOF QB. Hey, we know they have a HOF HC. That raises the floor a bit. Sure, Bill Belichek could spontaneously combust next weekend, and that would likely through a wrench in things, but that's not really useful to that kind of question.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

If you're including a lack of health, though, his floor, and everyone's floor, is by necessity, zero. When someone says what a floor is, it absolutely assumes health. Otherwise the whole thing becomes pointless.

I said as much. The floor/ceiling statements are always hyperbolic, because the floor is always 0. But outside of taking it literally, why would anyone ever assume health when it comes to a group of players? 

Quote

We're more talking a realistic floor than a theoretical floor. Theoretically everyone's floor would be 0, while the ceiling would be whatever amount of TDs is physically possible within the time constraints of an NFL season, which would likely be something in the 100s. So yes, pieces around him can regress, but it isn't like Kelce is going to suddenly become a bottom 5 TE. It is a safe bet that he will still have a great TE. It is a safe bet that Reid will keep calling plays well, as he has for almost two decades. It is a safe bet that Hill will still be faster than 99% of the league. These are things that could, theoretically, go a different direction, but those aren't realistic things to try to factor in when deciding a floor. Maybe Kelce regresses to a low end top 10 TE or something, but he isn't going to suck. Maybe Reid designs plays a little more poorly, but he isn't going to suddenly become Brian Daboll or something.

This goes back to the unforeseen circumstances, though. Sometimes you can see regression a mile away, sometimes you can’t. It’s happened with the GOATs and it’ll happen to the Chiefs/Mahomes. 

Does it guarantee to put Mahomes under 35 TDs? Obviously not. But does having the same main pieces as last year, make his floor 35 TDs? Also, obviously not.

Quote

I'm not surrounding the floor comment with things that need to go right, I'm surrounding the floor comment with things we know. If I asked you the Patriots floor for wins this year, I doubt you'd tell me 0, or even the 2 you think they'd get without Brady or something. You'd likely factor in the fact that, hey, we know they have a HOF QB. Hey, we know they have a HOF HC. That raises the floor a bit. Sure, Bill Belichek could spontaneously combust next weekend, and that would likely through a wrench in things, but that's not really useful to that kind of question.

Let’s be clear - I humor the floor comments. Not swooping in here to say it ought to be 0. But there’s a big difference between predictions and floors, even pessimistic worries and floors. 

What would Brady’s TD floor be with 620+ pass attempts? Because he had 25, following three consecutive at ~35.

If it’s possible to be less than the floor, than why even mention the floor? The whole point of the floor is to say absolute bottom.

EDIT: And I’d throw the Pats’ floor at 4-5 wins. Brady bottoms out the way zombie-Peyton did and NE doesn’t have the skill position players/rabid defense that Denver did. 

Edited by Yin-Yang
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, SBLIII said:

As long he has Hill I think around 40 TDs are realistic. If Hill is out, suspended or whatever his production will drop off significantly.

 

 

Fam, im literally guaranting Mahomes wont throw for more than 26 tds and him and Hill as well as Kelce will play 16 games. Yall didnt see how i move last year, because i joined this site late. Yall about to respect my word around here. GUARANTEE he doesnt pass for over 26 tds all next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Fam, im literally guaranting Mahomes wont throw for more than 26 tds and him and Hill as well as Kelce will play 16 games. Yall didnt see how i move last year, because i joined this site late. Yall about to respect my word around here. GUARANTEE he doesnt pass for over 26 tds all next year.

Are you related to Ace? He makes yearly guarantees to that turn to .... and rarely happen too? Just saying you might want to check Ancestry.Com and see?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

GUARANTEE he doesnt pass for over 26 tds all next year.

Is the bold part your escape route? 

After Mahomes throws 53TD next year you'll say "Mahomes didn't have 26 tds all year,  He didn't get to 26 until week 7.  Weeks 1 through 6 he was under 26 just like I predicted RESPECT ME"

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

Fam, im literally guaranting Mahomes wont throw for more than 26 tds and him and Hill as well as Kelce will play 16 games. Yall didnt see how i move last year, because i joined this site late. Yall about to respect my word around here. GUARANTEE he doesnt pass for over 26 tds all next year.

Why?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said:

Are you related to Ace? He makes yearly guarantees to that turn to .... and rarely happen too? Just saying you might want to check Ancestry.Com and see?

If he's never right, we arent related. Im creepily (if that is a word) right alot. Maybe dumb luck or knowledgable, cant confirm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Piquel said:

Is the bold part your escape route? 

After Mahomes throws 53TD next year you'll say "Mahomes didn't have 26 tds all year,  He didn't get to 26 until week 7.  Weeks 1 through 6 he was under 26 just like I predicted RESPECT ME"

 

Huh? He wont exceed 26 tds, in 2019 if he plays 16 regular season games. 26 tds passing. He will have about 8 rushing tds and chiefs rbs, while none will have 1000 yds. They will be top 3 in rushing tds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Why?

Because this is the NFL and defenses are too smart, players are too smart. So many of his tds where scheme driven rather than Mahomes making crazy td throws in tight coverage. When that is the case, the league catches up fast. SCARY FAST. Mahomes had flashy throws for sure, as much as we've ever seen a single qb have in a season. But alot of those werent the td passes. 

KC is gonna run a ton in the redzone this year. They will lead the league by alot in rush attempts in the redzone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...