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2019 CFB/2020 Draft Prospects


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6 hours ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

I would only consider the bolded busts. i woulda say 11/17 is probably well above league average!

I think there is a category that needs to be created for the purpose of this argument, successful career but not worthy of a second round pick.  I’d put Weaver, Chester, and Upshaw  in there.  Terry, Cody, Jernigan, and Williams were busts. Bowser, perhaps it’s too early to tell, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations.  

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1 hour ago, alfalcone said:

I think there is a category that needs to be created for the purpose of this argument, successful career but not worthy of a second round pick.  I’d put Weaver, Chester, and Upshaw  in there.  Terry, Cody, Jernigan, and Williams were busts. Bowser, perhaps it’s too early to tell, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations.  

I think some of the questions also stem from how we rate "safe prospects". I considered Ray Rice safe, Upshaw safe, Arthur Brown safe. Bowser was a project and we bet on upside.

While I don't think we particularly drafted "safe" players who then busted in the NFL, I certainly believe we have to do some scrutiny towards the types of players we take a chance on in the 2. round. It is really bad that Ray Rice basically is the only 2. contract guy we got in that group.

If we have to take into account what most experts say, the talent pool from pick 25-50/60 is basically the same amount of talent as these players are one big cluster where teams preferences dictate draft position rather than the player being a top tier talent

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27 minutes ago, Danand said:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14 minutes ago, Danand said:

I think some of the questions also stem from how we rate "safe prospects". I considered Ray Rice safe, Upshaw safe, Arthur Brown safe. Bowser was a project and we bet on upside.

While I don't think we particularly drafted "safe" players who then busted in the NFL, I certainly believe we have to do some scrutiny towards the types of players we take a chance on in the 2. round. It is really bad that Ray Rice basically is the only 2. contract guy we got in that group.

If we have to take into account what most experts say, the talent pool from pick 25-50/60 is basically the same amount of talent as these players are one big cluster where teams preferences dictate draft position rather than the player being a top tier talent

I think we have historically had a different philosophy in the second round as compared to the first, and that that philosophy has been less successful. If we do the same list back to 2002, I come up with Boller, Clayton, Elam, Perriman, and Hurst as busts, With Oher as a fine player, but not living up to expectations (not sure what Grubbs was, as I think he was best in his 5th year and for other teams).  (I will leave my long documented Flacco hatred out of this discussion).  Boller and Perriman were high-risk picks, whereas Clayton and Hurst were thought to be day 1 contributions with limited upside.  I don't know how to categorize Elam in that on the field he was a stud, but he clearly had some undocumented character issues, ironic given we passed on the Honey Badger because of weed. Of the boom guys, I would call Mosley and Stanley safe picks (would we have taken Tunsil if not for the gas mask) the rest had some embedded risk.

In short, I think when you draft day one contributors with limited upside, they often never contribute as imagined. I'd prefer to draft the athlete, (and be conscious of age) fix their flaws, and find them a role.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/draft.htm

2002 Ed Reed

2003 Terrell Suggs, Kyle Boller

2005 Mark Clayton

2006 Haloti Ngata

2007 Ben Grubbs

2008 Joe Flacco

2009 Michael Oher

2011 Jimmy Smith

2013 Matt Elam

2014 CJ Mosley

2015 Breshad Perriman

2016 Ronnie Stanley

2017 Marlon Humphrey

2018 Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson

2019 Marquise Brown 

 

Edited by alfalcone
Grubbs
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I don't think it's fair to call Hurst a bust at all (there seems to be a trend that you're much more liberal with that term). He played well for us but was blocked by a probowler who emerged from the same class. We traded him before his contract was over, but it was for a second, not peanuts.

Edited by sp6488
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Daniel Jeremiah said something went wrong in the scouting of Boller. They had the anticipation, that he would be able to learn to read defenses in the NFL (he came from Tedfords system in CAL), but they already learned in the preseason in 7on7 drills, that he could not read the field and he never learned it, and in retrospect the scouts was told that should be of more emphasis.

Clayton most likely struggled due to his quarterback situation, and he did put up decent numbers with the Rams, but was most likely overdrafted. 

Oher we had some part of ourselves, as we did nothing to help him with constant position schifts. 

Elam was just drafted too high and we used him incorrectly and many other reasons.

Perriman was a classic bet on a player with big upside that never turned out. I suggest people read Zierleins write up on Perriman, as that is maybe the most precise description of a players career pre-draft I have ever seen. Perriman is 100% that description it is scary.

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12 hours ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

I would only consider the bolded busts. i woulda say 11/17 is probably well above league average!

I've made my thoughts on Dwan Edwards known in the past (see below). Was he the greatest player of all time? No. But to call him a bust severely overrates what SHOULD be the median expectation for most draft picks.

 

On 3/18/2020 at 1:37 PM, sp6488 said:

One quibble, Dwan Edwards was a decent player.

Sometimes I think we overstate the hit probability of draft picks in general. This is probably a symptom of (1) the Ravens generally drafting well historically, creating elevated expectations generally and (2) it's not as noticeable when other teams' players fail to make expected impact (thus we miss valuable perspective).

Using Dwan Edwards as an example... Based on profootballreference's AV measure*, there were only 7 players (out of 31) in the 2004 2nd round with greater career AV than Edwards. Admittedly, a fair amount of that was accumulated post-Ravens, but even counting just AV accumulated with drafting team, he's #16 of 31 (thus 15 ahead of him). So, by this quick measure, his tenure with the drafting team was exactly at the median for a 2004 2nd round pick and his total career was in the top quartile. If we take a step back, I think that counts as at least holding serve on the round in terms of evaluating the FO's performance.

*AV is obviously not a perfect measure by any stretch, but useful for this exercise - further, gap-filling DE/DT are probably among the most underrated by this measure, so if it's wrong it's likely in a direction that helps the case here.

I would add to this that he was the 51st selection in the 2004 draft. He has the 54th most career AV per profootballreference, (a metric that's likely to underrate non-pass rushing DL). To suggest that he failed relative to reasonable levels of expectation is a bridge too far. For the topic at hand, I think that fits the low ceiling/high floor concept quite well.

Using guys like Ray Rice and Torrey Smith as the barometer for non-bust is crazy as those represent absolute home runs re: value for a second rounder.

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Anyone up for playing detective and trying to figure some things out on that draft board? I'm kind of hoping they put out a fake list there just in case other teams are able to garner any intel from it, but it's fun to speculate. It sort of looks like it's organized by position and then round/tiered grading with the 1st/elite tier being highly selective - and if I'm really squinting hard it looks like that 4th position from left is WR with just one or two guys in the 1st tier (Lamb?) and bunch of guys grouped into the 2nd tier together, which isn't altogether surprising. 

Looks like no QB's on our draft board till late which isn't surprising but is maybe noteworthy considering how some ppl still like to mock Hurts to us as a Day 2 pick. 

Also, looks like he was viewing St. Johns tape... scouting Ben Bartsch most likely? 

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

What could something for tomorrow night be about that isn't about our pick tho... :|

i asked him if he was Jay Glazering us and i can’t tell if he’s being serious or if he’s mocking Glazer because that’s pretty much exactly what Jay said haha

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Maybe he just found out Lamar has 103 speed on Madden? 😂

But forreal before he said it’s not about transactional news such as a trade or a signing, I thought it was that Matt Judon was likely to be traded for a 2nd round pick... which didn’t involve “tomorrow” or didn’t involve that pick.

The second message makes it too vague to comprehend. Could be a player doing something heroic? Could be Marshal Yanda deciding to put weight back on and unretire, perhaps? As I’m not sure if that counts as transactional or not (did he file his paperwork, if not, might be a grey area where it’s not “transactional”?)

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1 hour ago, M.10.E said:

New unis?

That'd be a pretty dope reveal. But I dunno why they would have kept that a secret unlike every other team that redid their unis this offseason...

My guess is that it's something to do with someone heartwarming/noteworthy announcing our pick or even leaguewide with the league arranging to have 'essential workers' announce every pick or something like that. 

Or maybe OJ Brigance for the Ring of Honor? But I dunno why they'd  do that announcement tomorrow. 

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Actually yeah that's the guess I'm gonna roll with. Ravens have  OJ Brigance announce our 1st round pick and in the process drop the news that he's the latest Ring of Honor inductee. 

Having it be pick-announcement related would explain why he doesn't want to see us trade out of the 1st. 

Edited by BaltimoreTerp
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1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

Maybe he just found out Lamar has 103 speed on Madden? 😂

But forreal before he said it’s not about transactional news such as a trade or a signing, I thought it was that Matt Judon was likely to be traded for a 2nd round pick... which didn’t involve “tomorrow” or didn’t involve that pick.

The second message makes it too vague to comprehend. Could be a player doing something heroic? Could be Marshal Yanda deciding to put weight back on and unretire, perhaps? As I’m not sure if that counts as transactional or not (did he file his paperwork, if not, might be a grey area where it’s not “transactional”?)

Don’t you tease me like that!

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