2019 Green Bay Packers offseason - OTAs/minicamps

[cannondale]

3 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Y'all remember that conversation we had when I said you could not easily replace Trevor Davis as a punt returner and half this board tried to convince me that it was stupid to keep Davis as a punt returner? 

I guess in hindsight they were right.  If Davis had been healthy, we'd have scored more points, maybe won one more game and we would have missed out on Gary. 

Before you pat yourself on the back too much - the Packers didn't even try to replace Davis. At least no more than bringing in me to replace Kenny Clark. You are confusing cheap and expendable with good

Edited May 27, 2019 by cannondale

[Shanedorf]

14 hours ago, squire12 said:

Is there really some key benefit that leads to better scoring with an elite punt returner/kick returner?

Yeah, I think there is some benefit. Although I don't think you need to invest in elite capabilities to realize that benefit
What I've asked of the return teams is to get us the first 1st down. On a kick return, that means getting it out to the 33-35 yard line
( much tougher with the rules changes)
On a punt return, that means adding 5 yards to the 2018 average return of 6.6 yds... and netting 10 yards+ per return. That helps flip the field and shorten it too
If you play around on Football Outsiders Drive pages, you can see how much of a difference it makes.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff

In the above link, the difference between the Packers offense (# 12) in 2018 and the top-rated Chefs, was 5 yards per drive. Get us 5 more yards from the PR team and we're sitting pretty in terms of net yards per drive.

If you have a guy like Hyde who occasionally popped a PR for 30 yards, that's a huge boost and even Davis has delivered occasionally. Its tough to win in this league and there will be days when the Packers need the STs to boost them. Potent STs are also the sign of a deep and talented team - and it becomes even more important late in the season as attrition attacks the roster and the inclement weather impacts the kicking game.

I don't think we need an elite returner or elite ST's, GB just needs to be above average in order to challenge for a Title. And in order to be above average in the NFL, your KR/PR crew needs to pop one for 25yds + from time to time.
Out of the 90 guys on the roster, who can do that in 2019 ?

[firstdown]

14 hours ago, squire12 said:

Kickoff return and team scoring PPG ranks.

 

 

									Scoring						KO Return
RK	TEAM	YDS	YDS/G	PASS	P YDS/G	RUSH	R YDS/G	PTS	PTS/G		RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
1	Kansas City	6810	425.6	4955	309.7	1855	115.9	565	35.3		8	Kansas City	40	975	24.4	97	0
2	LA Rams	6738	421.1	4507	281.7	2231	139.4	527	32.9		23	LA Rams	39	834	21.4	40	0
3	New Orleans	6067	379.2	4042	252.6	2025	126.6	504	31.5		10	New Orleans	23	560	24.3	50	0
4	New England	6295	393.4	4258	266.1	2037	127.3	436	27.3		2	New England	28	755	27	95	1
5	Indianapolis	6179	386.2	4461	278.8	1718	107.4	433	27.1		29	Indianapolis	17	337	19.8	29	0
	LA Chargers	5962	372.6	4089	255.6	1873	117.1	428	26.8		13	LA Chargers	28	653	23.3	40	0
6	Pittsburgh	6453	403.3	5008	313	1445	90.3	428	26.8		31	Pittsburgh	32	619	19.3	35	0
	Seattle	5653	353.3	3093	193.3	2560	160	428	26.8		14	Seattle	29	669	23.1	84	0
9	Chicago	5502	343.9	3564	222.8	1938	121.1	421	26.3		32	Chicago	23	440	19.1	31	0
10	Atlanta	6226	389.1	4653	290.8	1573	98.3	414	25.9		17	Atlanta	31	689	22.2	53	0
11	Houston	5802	362.6	3781	236.3	2021	126.3	402	25.1		9	Houston	20	487	24.4	36	0
12	Tampa Bay	6648	415.5	5125	320.3	1523	95.2	396	24.8		26	Tampa Bay	31	631	20.4	38	0
13	Baltimore	5999	374.9	3558	222.4	2441	152.6	389	24.3		18	Baltimore	32	707	22.1	39	0
	Carolina	5972	373.3	3836	239.8	2136	133.5	376	23.5		16	Carolina	26	582	22.4	37	0
14	Green Bay	5905	369.1	4238	264.9	1667	104.2	376	23.5		21	Green Bay	30	644	21.5	38	0
16	NY Giants	5697	356.1	4047	252.9	1650	103.1	369	23.1		7	NY Giants	45	1097	24.4	51	0
17	Cincinnati	4972	310.8	3290	205.6	1682	105.1	368	23		5	Cincinnati	43	1071	24.9	77	0
18	Philadelphia	5845	365.3	4275	267.2	1570	98.1	367	22.9		19	Philadelphia	33	725	22	48	0
19	Minnesota	5529	345.6	4036	252.3	1493	93.3	360	22.5		6	Minnesota	22	540	24.5	46	0
20	Cleveland	5900	368.8	4007	250.4	1893	118.3	359	22.4		28	Cleveland	44	884	20.1	35	0
21	San Francisco	5769	360.6	3867	241.7	1902	118.9	342	21.4		4	San Francisco	36	944	26.2	97	1
22	Dallas	5501	343.8	3538	221.1	1963	122.7	339	21.2		20	Dallas	13	283	21.8	35	0
23	NY Jets	4787	299.2	3165	197.8	1622	101.4	333	20.8		3	NY Jets	46	1238	26.9	99	1
24	Denver	5602	350.1	3695	230.9	1907	119.2	329	20.6		27	Denver	30	604	20.1	35	0
25	Detroit	5236	327.3	3576	223.5	1660	103.8	324	20.3		11	Detroit	20	482	24.1	45	0
26	Miami	4638	289.9	2900	181.3	1738	108.6	319	19.9		12	Miami	39	938	24.1	102	1
27	Tennessee	4998	312.4	2975	185.9	2023	126.4	310	19.4		1	Tennessee	23	737	32	94	1
28	Oakland	5379	336.2	3751	234.4	1628	101.8	290	18.1		15	Oakland	29	663	22.9	34	0
29	Washington	4795	299.7	3021	188.8	1774	110.9	281	17.6		30	Washington	29	570	19.7	44	0
30	Buffalo	4778	298.6	2794	174.6	1984	124	269	16.8		24	Buffalo	38	807	21.2	49	0
31	Jacksonville	4832	302	3109	194.3	1723	107.7	245	15.3		25	Jacksonville	26	532	20.5	47	0
32	Arizona	3865	241.6	2523	157.7	1342	83.9	225	14.1		22	Arizona	25	536	21.4	36	0

Nice stats. Football Outsiders has some interesting Special Teams numbers. They rate a team's punt and kickoff returns by "how many points the return is worth compared to average" Not exactly sure what that means, but it has something to do with where you start your drives after kickoff and punt returns. Here's our stats for the last two years-

Kick returns

2018 -4.5 points (no Davis)

2017 +.2 points (with Davis)

Punt returns

2018 -9.2 points (no Davis)

2017 +4.0 points (with Davis)

 

I'll put it another way-

2018 -3.9 net yards per return vs our opponents (no Davis)

2017 + 4.5 net yards per return vs our opponents (with Davis)

At approximately 60 returns per year, in 2017 we won Special Teams field position when Davis was the returner and gunner, he netted us an additional 280 extra yards of field position compared to our returners in 2018. One guy, who you all hate, accounted for a 6 1/2% increase our total yardage all by himself. 

 

Here's one example how important Special Teams are. In the Seattle game last year, we lost by 3 points. Davis had a 55 yard kickoff return called back. On that one play, that holding call (not even close to where Davis was running), cost us 13% of our total yardage for the day. Instead of starting at our 45 yard line (worth 2 1/2 points by Football Outsiders), we started at the Seattle 10 yard line (a starting position worth -1 points). A 45 yard loss in field position, and a 3 1/2 point difference that could have won the game. I know it's not a given that we would have scored, but the metrics are based on the NFL's season's stats, so there's logical calculations behind those numbers.

Bottom line, we need Trevor Davis. 

[Joe]

2 hours ago, smetana34 said:

We do? The guy is only going into his 3rd year. And each year has been a different system. 

I buy the concern about learning a new system, but outside of functionality in the offense he's proven to sorely lack pocket awareness and accuracy.

[squire12]

2 hours ago, firstdown said:

Nice stats. Football Outsiders has some interesting Special Teams numbers. They rate a team's punt and kickoff returns by "how many points the return is worth compared to average" Not exactly sure what that means, but it has something to do with where you start your drives after kickoff and punt returns. Here's our stats for the last two years-

Kick returns

2018 -4.5 points (no Davis)

2017 +.2 points (with Davis)

Punt returns

2018 -9.2 points (no Davis)

2017 +4.0 points (with Davis)

 

I'll put it another way-

2018 -3.9 net yards per return vs our opponents (no Davis)

2017 + 4.5 net yards per return vs our opponents (with Davis)

At approximately 60 returns per year, in 2017 we won Special Teams field position when Davis was the returner and gunner, he netted us an additional 280 extra yards of field position compared to our returners in 2018. One guy, who you all hate, accounted for a 6 1/2% increase our total yardage all by himself. 

 

Here's one example how important Special Teams are. In the Seattle game last year, we lost by 3 points. Davis had a 55 yard kickoff return called back. On that one play, that holding call (not even close to where Davis was running), cost us 13% of our total yardage for the day. Instead of starting at our 45 yard line (worth 2 1/2 points by Football Outsiders), we started at the Seattle 10 yard line (a starting position worth -1 points). A 45 yard loss in field position, and a 3 1/2 point difference that could have won the game. I know it's not a given that we would have scored, but the metrics are based on the NFL's season's stats, so there's logical calculations behind those numbers.

Bottom line, we need Trevor Davis. 

Starting field position after punts is likely more a function of defense than it is punt return

[ReadyToThump]

Give me Jawill Davis over Trevor Davis. 

[HighCalebR]

53 minutes ago, ReadyToThump said:

Give me Jawill Davis over Trevor Davis.

Have you watched Jawills few returns? Definitely nothing above average there.

[smetana34]

20 hours ago, Joe said:

I buy the concern about learning a new system, but outside of functionality in the offense he's proven to sorely lack pocket awareness and accuracy.

I'm not ready to write him off yet. Rodgers looked pretty lost his first couple years too. He's only 23 and talented enough to be a quality backup in the league

[Dubz41]

20 hours ago, Joe said:

I buy the concern about learning a new system, but outside of functionality in the offense he's proven to sorely lack pocket awareness and accuracy.

Kizer is a year younger than Boyle.  Kizer looked like Rodgers last year, neither was really impressive, but Kizer is only 23 and has quite a few snaps under his belt.  He's a plus athlete and if he doesn't work out at QB try him at TE he's got the size.

[Shanedorf]

Cheesehead TV with their take on Packers STs going into 2019

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/improving-special-teams-in-2019-127

"...It wasn’t all bad. The unit had its share of highlight reel moments, too. In Week 2, Geronimo Allison blocked a Vikings punt that Josh Jackson caught in the end zone for a touchdown. In Week 10 against the Dolphins, Raven Greene successfully executed a fake punt sneak that went for 26-yards and gave the Packers a first down. Those moments were few and far between all season, however, with special teams proving to be so lackluster that coordinator Ron Zook was fired after four seasons with the team"

 

[Joe]

3 hours ago, smetana34 said:

I'm not ready to write him off yet. Rodgers looked pretty lost his first couple years too. He's only 23 and talented enough to be a quality backup in the league

I'd rather not write him off either. Just think Boyle has a bit more potential at this point.

 

3 hours ago, Dubz41 said:

Kizer is a year younger than Boyle.  Kizer looked like Rodgers last year, neither was really impressive, but Kizer is only 23 and has quite a few snaps under his belt.  He's a plus athlete and if he doesn't work out at QB try him at TE he's got the size.

The fact that he's a plus athlete has kept him in this league IMHO. 

 

...again, my biggest concern is pocket awareness; something that Rodgers didn't exactly struggle with IIRC.

[Shanedorf]

from PackersNews

Watch for James Crawford at inside linebacker

An undrafted rookie out of Illinois a year ago, Crawford made the team and a significant contribution on special teams in 2018. He played just one defensive snap. At the combine in February, Gutekunst took exception to the assertion that the 6-foot, 2-inch, 239-pounder is just a special teamer.

“I disagree with you about James because I think James could potentially help us on defense,” Gutekunst said. “I think he has a lot of potential there.”

 

“I’m kind of interested to see what Crawford can do, too, he had such a good year on special teams,” Gutekunst said. “We were moving him back and forth from inside to outside, I think he’ll probably settle inside. He does have the versatility to play outside, but he has the frame and the skill set to do some of those things, too.”     Last week, new inside linebackers coach Kirk Olivadotti defined Crawford’s role going forward.

“We have settled him in a little bit at the inside linebacker spot,” Olivadotti said. “He's learning the defense through the inside linebacker spot. That's kind of an easy place to do it because you have to be in on the coverage, in on the front and know what's going on pretty much everywhere around you. I think that's an advantage for him.”

[Arthur Penske]

Get used to that from MVS @Outpost31 

 

 

[Arthur Penske]

Good WRs or bad DBs? Ha

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Arthur Penske

[Cheesehawk]

50 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Good WRs or bad DBs? Ha

 

Sweet, just what we need in the offense. More deep balls.