Jump to content
Shanedorf

2019 Green Bay Packers offseason - OTAs/minicamps

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Y'all remember that conversation we had when I said you could not easily replace Trevor Davis as a punt returner and half this board tried to convince me that it was stupid to keep Davis as a punt returner? 

I guess in hindsight they were right.  If Davis had been healthy, we'd have scored more points, maybe won one more game and we would have missed out on Gary. 

Before you pat yourself on the back too much - the Packers didn't even try to replace Davis. At least no more than bringing in me to replace Kenny Clark. You are confusing cheap and expendable with good

Edited by cannondale

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, squire12 said:

Is there really some key benefit that leads to better scoring with an elite punt returner/kick returner?

Yeah, I think there is some benefit. Although I don't think you need to invest in elite capabilities to realize that benefit
What I've asked of the return teams is to get us the first 1st down. On a kick return, that means getting it out to the 33-35 yard line
( much tougher with the rules changes)
On a punt return, that means adding 5 yards to the 2018 average return of 6.6 yds... and netting 10 yards+ per return. That helps flip the field and shorten it too
If you play around on Football Outsiders Drive pages, you can see how much of a difference it makes.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff

In the above link, the difference between the Packers offense (# 12) in 2018 and the top-rated Chefs, was 5 yards per drive. Get us 5 more yards from the PR team and we're sitting pretty in terms of net yards per drive.

If you have a guy like Hyde who occasionally popped a PR for 30 yards, that's a huge boost and even Davis has delivered occasionally. Its tough to win in this league and there will be days when the Packers need the STs to boost them. Potent STs are also the sign of a deep and talented team - and it becomes even more important late in the season as attrition attacks the roster and the inclement weather impacts the kicking game.

I don't think we need an elite returner or elite ST's, GB just needs to be above average in order to challenge for a Title. And in order to be above average in the NFL, your KR/PR crew needs to pop one for 25yds + from time to time.
Out of the 90 guys on the roster, who can do that in 2019 ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, squire12 said:

Kickoff return and team scoring PPG ranks.

 

 

                  Scoring          
KO Return
   
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G   RK TEAM ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
1 Kansas City 6810 425.6 4955 309.7 1855 115.9 565 35.3   8 Kansas City 40 975 24.4 97 0
2 LA Rams 6738 421.1 4507 281.7 2231 139.4 527 32.9   23 LA Rams 39 834 21.4 40 0
3 New Orleans 6067 379.2 4042 252.6 2025 126.6 504 31.5   10 New Orleans 23 560 24.3 50 0
4 New England 6295 393.4 4258 266.1 2037 127.3 436 27.3   2 New England 28 755 27 95 1
5 Indianapolis 6179 386.2 4461 278.8 1718 107.4 433 27.1   29 Indianapolis 17 337 19.8 29 0
  LA Chargers 5962 372.6 4089 255.6 1873 117.1 428 26.8   13 LA Chargers 28 653 23.3 40 0
6 Pittsburgh 6453 403.3 5008 313 1445 90.3 428 26.8   31 Pittsburgh 32 619 19.3 35 0
  Seattle 5653 353.3 3093 193.3 2560 160 428 26.8   14 Seattle 29 669 23.1 84 0
9 Chicago 5502 343.9 3564 222.8 1938 121.1 421 26.3   32 Chicago 23 440 19.1 31 0
10 Atlanta 6226 389.1 4653 290.8 1573 98.3 414 25.9   17 Atlanta 31 689 22.2 53 0
11 Houston 5802 362.6 3781 236.3 2021 126.3 402 25.1   9 Houston 20 487 24.4 36 0
12 Tampa Bay 6648 415.5 5125 320.3 1523 95.2 396 24.8   26 Tampa Bay 31 631 20.4 38 0
13 Baltimore 5999 374.9 3558 222.4 2441 152.6 389 24.3   18 Baltimore 32 707 22.1 39 0
  Carolina 5972 373.3 3836 239.8 2136 133.5 376 23.5   16 Carolina 26 582 22.4 37 0
14 Green Bay 5905 369.1 4238 264.9 1667 104.2 376 23.5   21 Green Bay 30 644 21.5 38 0
16 NY Giants 5697 356.1 4047 252.9 1650 103.1 369 23.1   7 NY Giants 45 1097 24.4 51 0
17 Cincinnati 4972 310.8 3290 205.6 1682 105.1 368 23   5 Cincinnati 43 1071 24.9 77 0
18 Philadelphia 5845 365.3 4275 267.2 1570 98.1 367 22.9   19 Philadelphia 33 725 22 48 0
19 Minnesota 5529 345.6 4036 252.3 1493 93.3 360 22.5   6 Minnesota 22 540 24.5 46 0
20 Cleveland 5900 368.8 4007 250.4 1893 118.3 359 22.4   28 Cleveland 44 884 20.1 35 0
21 San Francisco 5769 360.6 3867 241.7 1902 118.9 342 21.4   4 San Francisco 36 944 26.2 97 1
22 Dallas 5501 343.8 3538 221.1 1963 122.7 339 21.2   20 Dallas 13 283 21.8 35 0
23 NY Jets 4787 299.2 3165 197.8 1622 101.4 333 20.8   3 NY Jets 46 1238 26.9 99 1
24 Denver 5602 350.1 3695 230.9 1907 119.2 329 20.6   27 Denver 30 604 20.1 35 0
25 Detroit 5236 327.3 3576 223.5 1660 103.8 324 20.3   11 Detroit 20 482 24.1 45 0
26 Miami 4638 289.9 2900 181.3 1738 108.6 319 19.9   12 Miami 39 938 24.1 102 1
27 Tennessee 4998 312.4 2975 185.9 2023 126.4 310 19.4   1 Tennessee 23 737 32 94 1
28 Oakland 5379 336.2 3751 234.4 1628 101.8 290 18.1   15 Oakland 29 663 22.9 34 0
29 Washington 4795 299.7 3021 188.8 1774 110.9 281 17.6   30 Washington 29 570 19.7 44 0
30 Buffalo 4778 298.6 2794 174.6 1984 124 269 16.8   24 Buffalo 38 807 21.2 49 0
31 Jacksonville 4832 302 3109 194.3 1723 107.7 245 15.3   25 Jacksonville 26 532 20.5 47 0
32 Arizona 3865 241.6 2523 157.7 1342 83.9 225 14.1   22 Arizona 25 536 21.4 36 0

Nice stats. Football Outsiders has some interesting Special Teams numbers. They rate a team's punt and kickoff returns by "how many points the return is worth compared to average" Not exactly sure what that means, but it has something to do with where you start your drives after kickoff and punt returns. Here's our stats for the last two years-

Kick returns

2018 -4.5 points (no Davis)

2017 +.2 points (with Davis)

Punt returns

2018 -9.2 points (no Davis)

2017 +4.0 points (with Davis)

 

I'll put it another way-

2018 -3.9 net yards per return vs our opponents (no Davis)

2017 + 4.5 net yards per return vs our opponents (with Davis)

At approximately 60 returns per year, in 2017 we won Special Teams field position when Davis was the returner and gunner, he netted us an additional 280 extra yards of field position compared to our returners in 2018. One guy, who you all hate, accounted for a 6 1/2% increase our total yardage all by himself. 

 

Here's one example how important Special Teams are. In the Seattle game last year, we lost by 3 points. Davis had a 55 yard kickoff return called back. On that one play, that holding call (not even close to where Davis was running), cost us 13% of our total yardage for the day. Instead of starting at our 45 yard line (worth 2 1/2 points by Football Outsiders), we started at the Seattle 10 yard line (a starting position worth -1 points). A 45 yard loss in field position, and a 3 1/2 point difference that could have won the game. I know it's not a given that we would have scored, but the metrics are based on the NFL's season's stats, so there's logical calculations behind those numbers.

Bottom line, we need Trevor Davis. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, smetana34 said:

We do? The guy is only going into his 3rd year. And each year has been a different system. 

I buy the concern about learning a new system, but outside of functionality in the offense he's proven to sorely lack pocket awareness and accuracy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, firstdown said:

Nice stats. Football Outsiders has some interesting Special Teams numbers. They rate a team's punt and kickoff returns by "how many points the return is worth compared to average" Not exactly sure what that means, but it has something to do with where you start your drives after kickoff and punt returns. Here's our stats for the last two years-

Kick returns

2018 -4.5 points (no Davis)

2017 +.2 points (with Davis)

Punt returns

2018 -9.2 points (no Davis)

2017 +4.0 points (with Davis)

 

I'll put it another way-

2018 -3.9 net yards per return vs our opponents (no Davis)

2017 + 4.5 net yards per return vs our opponents (with Davis)

At approximately 60 returns per year, in 2017 we won Special Teams field position when Davis was the returner and gunner, he netted us an additional 280 extra yards of field position compared to our returners in 2018. One guy, who you all hate, accounted for a 6 1/2% increase our total yardage all by himself. 

 

Here's one example how important Special Teams are. In the Seattle game last year, we lost by 3 points. Davis had a 55 yard kickoff return called back. On that one play, that holding call (not even close to where Davis was running), cost us 13% of our total yardage for the day. Instead of starting at our 45 yard line (worth 2 1/2 points by Football Outsiders), we started at the Seattle 10 yard line (a starting position worth -1 points). A 45 yard loss in field position, and a 3 1/2 point difference that could have won the game. I know it's not a given that we would have scored, but the metrics are based on the NFL's season's stats, so there's logical calculations behind those numbers.

Bottom line, we need Trevor Davis. 

Starting field position after punts is likely more a function of defense than it is punt return

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, ReadyToThump said:

Give me Jawill Davis over Trevor Davis.

Have you watched Jawills few returns? Definitely nothing above average there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Joe said:

I buy the concern about learning a new system, but outside of functionality in the offense he's proven to sorely lack pocket awareness and accuracy.

I'm not ready to write him off yet. Rodgers looked pretty lost his first couple years too. He's only 23 and talented enough to be a quality backup in the league

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Joe said:

I buy the concern about learning a new system, but outside of functionality in the offense he's proven to sorely lack pocket awareness and accuracy.

Kizer is a year younger than Boyle.  Kizer looked like Rodgers last year, neither was really impressive, but Kizer is only 23 and has quite a few snaps under his belt.  He's a plus athlete and if he doesn't work out at QB try him at TE he's got the size.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheesehead TV with their take on Packers STs going into 2019

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/improving-special-teams-in-2019-127

"...It wasn’t all bad. The unit had its share of highlight reel moments, too. In Week 2, Geronimo Allison blocked a Vikings punt that Josh Jackson caught in the end zone for a touchdown. In Week 10 against the Dolphins, Raven Greene successfully executed a fake punt sneak that went for 26-yards and gave the Packers a first down. Those moments were few and far between all season, however, with special teams proving to be so lackluster that coordinator Ron Zook was fired after four seasons with the team"

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, smetana34 said:

I'm not ready to write him off yet. Rodgers looked pretty lost his first couple years too. He's only 23 and talented enough to be a quality backup in the league

I'd rather not write him off either. Just think Boyle has a bit more potential at this point.

 

3 hours ago, Dubz41 said:

Kizer is a year younger than Boyle.  Kizer looked like Rodgers last year, neither was really impressive, but Kizer is only 23 and has quite a few snaps under his belt.  He's a plus athlete and if he doesn't work out at QB try him at TE he's got the size.

The fact that he's a plus athlete has kept him in this league IMHO. 

 

...again, my biggest concern is pocket awareness; something that Rodgers didn't exactly struggle with IIRC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

from PackersNews

Watch for James Crawford at inside linebacker

An undrafted rookie out of Illinois a year ago, Crawford made the team and a significant contribution on special teams in 2018. He played just one defensive snap. At the combine in February, Gutekunst took exception to the assertion that the 6-foot, 2-inch, 239-pounder is just a special teamer.

“I disagree with you about James because I think James could potentially help us on defense,” Gutekunst said. “I think he has a lot of potential there.”

 

“I’m kind of interested to see what Crawford can do, too, he had such a good year on special teams,” Gutekunst said. “We were moving him back and forth from inside to outside, I think he’ll probably settle inside. He does have the versatility to play outside, but he has the frame and the skill set to do some of those things, too.”     Last week, new inside linebackers coach Kirk Olivadotti defined Crawford’s role going forward.

“We have settled him in a little bit at the inside linebacker spot,” Olivadotti said. “He's learning the defense through the inside linebacker spot. That's kind of an easy place to do it because you have to be in on the coverage, in on the front and know what's going on pretty much everywhere around you. I think that's an advantage for him.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Good WRs or bad DBs? Ha

 

Sweet, just what we need in the offense. More deep balls. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×