2020 NFL Draft Thread

[OldManWillis]

2 hours ago, SBXISBXVSBXVIII said:

This will never happen. But I am going to ask anyway because I'm interested what everyone's take will be. The Raiders get Lamb at 12. Then for 19, Jeudy or Ruggs are still available. Do the Raiders take a 2nd receiver?

I would not, simple reason is to compete with KC we need more talent on defense. I do however, absolutely think we need one of the 3 top WR. 

[Devilshark69]

just read an interesting article from b Williamson about z baun at 19, interesting take on him being able to be a slb during run downs and helping pass rush on throwing downs. that's a very good point, getting value at 2 positions is possible. food for thought. good points.https://justblogbaby.com/2020/03/30/why-the-raiders-should-take-lb-zack-baun-in-round-1/

Edited March 30, 2020 by Devilshark69

[BayRaider]

6 hours ago, Geezy said:

Would hate Ruggs in Denver. Him, Sutton and Fant would be scary good. Also, having to deal with Hill and Ruggs 1/4 of the year would be ugly. 

Yeah Ruggs in Denver is something I do NOT want happening. I view Sutton as a true WR1, and then you have Ruggs who has WR1 potential and insane speed. Ruggs, Sutton, Fant... please god no. 
 

Personally I think Denvers Top 2 targets will be Ruggs III and Kinlaw. I don’t think they’d draft Lamb at 15. They want speed. 
 

11 hours ago, Trojan said:

This is how I see the draft going in the top 15

Cincinnati Bengals - This pick is almost assuredly Joe Burrow, the second place is Joe Burrow to Miami for an asinine amount of compensation and third Chase Young

Washington Redskins -  I think this pick is as frequently written in as Chase Young, but I think it's significantly less likely. I think this is the spot trade calls come in as Detroit makes a lot of sense and whatever team is in the race for Detroit's pick is going to offer it to Washington also because why wouldnt you. Miami's 5th and 18th for example is an attractive starting point that likely a winning trade to Detroit and an appealing one for the Skins to consider. If the trade offer exists I think this is 60% trade down (5+18 basis point trade, might expand to another significant pick with including Trent Williams) and 40% Chase Young. I think the trade up is more likely too, as a team might feel Young is worth coming up for. Another idea is the Redskins are on the clock with the deal in place with Miami or whatever, and then force Detroit to pay a Bears/49ers Trubiski trade up style to get Young first, then execute the Miami deal at 3 squeeze additional value.

Detroit Lions - I think this is Chase Young's floor and he is near 100% the pick if the Skin's pass. Aside for that I think trade down is the most likely option followed by a trio of Jeff Okudah, Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons.

New York Giants - I think this is another trade down spot, and I think the most likely is the Jaguars moving up for Jeff Okudah for 9 and 42 as the basis point of the trade. Alternatively I think the Chargers have a shout out move here with leaping Miami if the QB board falls in a certain way and everyone has stayed put and the Chargers love a QB. I think this is the one team that -could- trade up to 1 with the Bengals and take Chase Young, with it not being highly likely but I could see Cincinnati accepting a ransom to move to 4 (worst case scenario the third QB is on the board and they would need to not be all in on Joe Burrow, like Tua and Herbert/or/Love would need close evals) the compensation package would likely look dummy gross for a non-QB top pick trade up but I don't think it's completely ridiculous as it also keep Young off the Redskins and kinda forces them into an awkward draft room 15 minutes into the draft. Staying in place though with Burrow and Young 100% gone, Tua likely gone (trade up to WAS or DET), and Derrick Brown, Jeff Okudah, and Isaiah Simmons likely available but having been previously considered -- I think the Giants would target in order Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Isaiah Simmons and Jedrick Wills. The tackles storm the board with them being the greatest benefit to improving previous high selections of Jones and Barkley and Brown and Okudah slide out of contention here with high investments in DL (Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams trade) and CB (DeAndre Baker, like he was burned but was a 1st rounder last year can't swing all that frequently at the same position without seeing them through).

Miami Dolphins - I think the most likely, as I've said, is them moving up likely to 2 or 3, but  should they offer the Skins' and the Skins reject and go Young, then the Lions go on the clock really seemingly ready to wheel the pick, I think Miami could say YOLO let the board fall. The reasoning is that one of the QBs is here, even if that QB is Love later with support from a LT here. I think Miami's board is likely in order Tua, Herbert, Wirfs, Thomas, Wills, Becton. Once again players that have been considered in Okudah, Simmons and Brown I don't think are legit threats to go here barring a trade up, and I don't see that as likely either with Miami's needs at QB and LT, however if the Skins moved to 5 and 18, I could see 5 being listed for sale again to like the Jaguars for the same basis Okudah trade up scenario netting Washington 9, 18, and 42 while keeping their sights on a LT while also still shopping Trent Williams (maybe 56 in a package to MIA when they went to 2).


Thats the first 5 picks so I'll make a mock list real quick:
1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
2. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
3. Lions: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
4. Giants: Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville
5. Jaguars: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State

Los Angeles Chargers - In the above scenario it's a does the Chargers value Herbert or protection. Given how bad their OL has been for years and that they traded their tackle for a guard, I think this is the second LT off the board with I think a real feeling of QBs at this point are developmental and it's a wildcard shot argument Bills style with Tyrod with protection. I think such a plan could have taken root around the time they floated the idea of benching Rivers, I'd have Andrew Thomas leading the pack followed by the rest of the LT prospects, then Herbert and I think this is basically Herbert's ceiling unless Tua failed Miami's medicals or something crazy.

Carolina Panthers - This team needs a bunch of things on the defensive side of the ball with like three building block core pieces in Short, Burns and Shaq Thompson. I've read they are looking at being a multiple defense so flexible prospects are really attractive and the most flexible on the board previously considered would be Isaiah Simmons. He somewhat fills the void of Luke's retirement and has versatility at linebacker inside and outside as well as a safety. Having said that, their is also argument for Okudah and Derrick Brown. I would assume Simmons is the pick for reasons stated, but that also leaves a pretty full board up to this point for the Panthers and this is the range where trading up from the middle of the first becomes more affordable, and in this scenario I have Justin Herbert on board. I could see the Patriots going for it here. It wouldn't be full value for a premium QB and if they don't accept your offer there is few threats to take Herbert and many potential trade partners -- something like 23 and the three thirds is 1100 points and then float a future first with the potential to either be a high pick if it was Brady that was the element of success in NE and it has to be a little enticing. Should Okudah be here, one has to think the Vikings would consider leaping the Jaguars as well to get Okudah. With that all said I think the Panthers would take the Patriots deal and have ammo in 2021 to take Lawrence if Teddy isn't a starter or completely redefine the defense if he is.

Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals locked up their LT and traded for DeAndre Hopkins so the obvious picks here aren't really needs, but they could easily consider one of the tackles to bookend Humphries. I think this becomes another primed trade down spot, but not as far down as the Panthers as I don't think the Cardinals would be as interested in future picks, just enhanced value. In the scenario where Okudah is available I think the Raiders knock for a trade for example. In this scenario though I could see the Buccaneers offering 14 and 45 for 8, 114 and 131. That places the Cardinals back into the second round after trading for Hopkins while still delivering a top 15 select the Buccaneers would be motivated by Becton and Thomas being off the board with the OL needy Redskins, Browns and Jets coming up shortly with a need to protect Brady -- and Tristan Wirfs blows the athletic profile out of the water and Arians took an athletic LT for Arizona back in the day in Humphries so I think the fit should be there. Staying as is potentially I think the board includes those tackles available, but needs don't outweigh value in recouping the second.

Jacksonville Jaguars -- Had they not traded up for Okudah, taking him here would be my top prediction, but I don't think they risk that happening given a Raiders to Arizona's pick seems so easy, the Jaguars other selections that make sense to me are Tristan Wirfs to compete with Cam Robinson at LT and replace AJ Cann at RG as a fall back, Derrick Brown to pair next to Abry Jones if Taven Bryan is considered more of a DE to them, or Isaiah Simmons. Here this is the Redskins pick though, and with the Giants, Chargers, and Buccaneers having grabbed LTs and the Browns and Jets ondeck, the Redskins grab the fourth of the big four in Jedrick Wills with consideration going to pairing Scary Terry with another WR for Haskins development. I think they will be happy with protection though.

Cleveland Browns -- The Browns just saw the last of the big four go, and turn their eyes towards Isaiah Simmons and  Derrick Brown as pretty true BPA arguments, and I feel as if Isaiah Simmons makes the better case as the Browns cut Kirksey and lost Schobert to the Giants. I think Ceedee Lamb also makes sense, but requires a trade of Odell Beckham which is a little difficult to find a value for after a down year in Cleveland and Hopkins going to for little. However Ceedee's relationship with Baker and a new front office that may want to separate from Odell it's a option I think.

That's the next 5 picks making it
1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
2. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
3. Lions: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
4. Giants: Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville
5. Jaguars: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
6. Chargers: Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia
7. Patriots: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
8. Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs, LT Iowa
9. Redskins: Jedrick Wills, LT Alabama
10. Browns: Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson

New York Jets -- With the tackles off the board and I guess the Jets could argue they "addressed" the position in FA anyways, and having lost Robby Anderson to a 10mil per year deal to Carolina, Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy really stand out as options. Although I have Ceedee considered previously for other teams I feel like Jerry Jeudy is the better option for the Jets with his route running.

Las Vegas Raiders -- Derrick Brown and Ceedee Lamb are the two available that I think we would target here. Ceedee is the bigger need of the two but also the "good value" pick at the deeper position in the class, whereas Derrick Brown has top 5 pick potential so "great value", a shallower position in the class and is also a lesser need. Both seem like good character prospects to me, but Derrick Brown is my favorite prospect in the draft a Lott IMPACT (Integrity, Maturity, Performance, Academics, Community, and Tenacity) awardee (Carl Nassib was too, btw). Check his leadership resume: https://auburntigers.com/news/2019/1/20/football-the-leader-all-sec-defensive-lineman-derrick-brown.aspx . The reason I think he -may- be here is I see the potential major threats to take him as Detroit, Jacksonville, and Cleveland -- an in my mock they land Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, and Isaiah Simmons all of which are also blue chip prospects.

San Francisco 49ers -- I have to think there would be a lot of consideration towards Ceedee Lamb here, but also towards Javon Kinlaw should Solomon Thomas not be viewed as more than rotational. The success of the DL was instrumental in their run up to the SB, which included games where JimmyG essentially didn't have to pass the ball. If Kinlaw is what runs that back, I think that's the pick and it's certainly in the correct range. The threat of the passing game truly opens up though if you pair Ceedee with Deebo outside with Kittle in between. I think they  roll with Ceedee here, but it's not an absolute slam dunk over all other considerations. I feel as if the 49ers could be targeting a similar board as the Raiders in the range, but the lack of 2nd round picks will make it interesting to see if one jumps the other (ie. 49ers jump to Jets for Derrick Brown, which is reliant on Jets liking Jeudy and Lamb similarly as it's then the Raiders who make the WR pick, and they have to gamble that the 49ers don't go Jeudy/Lamb then the Raiders take the other and the Jets are left with the tackles and WRs run on leaving them with Ruggs, Josh Jones or like CJ Henderson which is a legit gamble given the compensation is unpredictable as it would take the 49ers two firsts for the Jets first and two thirds or something similar).

Tampa Bay  Buccaneers -- I have them trading up for Tristan Wirfs here, and I'm not sure they would be fans of how the board has fallen had they stayed and may consider moving down with Philadelphia targeting Josh Jones Austin Jackson for the Eagles looking at Ruggs at 14, a pick before Denver (who also may like Jackson and Jones). The other option I would see is maybe Javon Kinlaw with Suh only returning on a 1 year deal. However here it's the Cardinals pick, and the Cardinals can take K'Lavon Chaisson to pair with Chandler Jones, once again Javon Kinlaw would be considered but with their selection of Zach Allen last year and cutting Suggs I feel the edge player takes precedence.

Denver Broncos -- Henry Ruggs III to pair opposite Sutton and give Lock a fighting chance, the other candidates I see for this pick are Javon Kinlaw to replace Derek Wolfe and Josh Jones to replace Garrett Bolles whose penalties are an issue for Denver.

That's 5 more picks so we are at:
1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
2. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
3. Lions: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
4. Giants: Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville
5. Jaguars: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
6. Chargers: Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia
7. Patriots: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
8. Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs, LT Iowa
9. Redskins: Jedrick Wills, LT Alabama
10. Browns: Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson
11. Jets: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
12. Raiders: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
13. 49ers: Ceedee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
14. Cardinals: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge LSU
15. Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama

Atlanta Falcons -- Defensive line is an issue worth addressing with Javon Kinlaw once again appearing in contention, and others include a cornerback like CJ Henderson to replace Trufant, along the lines of Kinlaw is AJ Epenesa should combine matter less than Kinlaw's hip and knee concerns. I have Chaisson going with his injury history in range and I feel as if Kinlaw to Falcons just makes too much sense and he feels like a good pairing with Fowler and Tak McKinley to bring a more interior pressure and pick 47 should be in CB range.

 

I don’t agree with a lot of this but it was a very good read, and very very detailed! Must of took forever, so props. 
 

3 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

 

 

I definitely don’t expect it to happen, even if he’s on the board at 12, but if Love is the selection, I’d be all on board. All the tools you want in a QB. 
 

3 hours ago, Justwinning said:

Working on a mock myself, and I was thinking about this scenario being likely. DEN has two 3rd rounders so they can spare at least one (and them some) to go get their guy. Would help Lock immensely. 

 

In one of my mocks I had Okudah falling to 11. Denver jumped us by offering 3rd/4th to the Jets to nab him. Only time I’ve ever had Okudah falling past 9, and I’ve done like 50 mocks. 
 

24 minutes ago, Devilshark69 said:

just read an interesting article from b Williamson about z baun at 19, interesting take on him being able to be a slb during run downs and helping pass rush on throwing downs. that's a very good point, getting value at 2 positions is possible. food for thought. good points.https://justblogbaby.com/2020/03/30/why-the-raiders-should-take-lb-zack-baun-in-round-1/

 

Zack Baun is one of my personal favorites in this draft. He’s much better suited as a 3-4 EDGE but he’d also be a very good 4-3 SLB, and can play in Nickel Formations. For a 4-3 team like us, I prefer Queen. I feel Queen is more of a pure LB. They have similar skillsets but Queen has more coverage range and Baun is a way better pass rusher. 4-3 team I take Queen, 3-4 team I take Baun. 

[Justwinning]

I think Zach Baun goes to NE at #23.

[BayRaider]

Just now, Justwinning said:

I think Zach Baun goes to NE at #23.

100% agree with you man. EDGE is their biggest need besides QB if NE doesn’t trade up for Love/Herbert. Baun and/or Jordan Love trade up has been all of my recent Mock Drafts. Baun is such a good scheme fit on the Pats that it makes too much sense!

[raidr4life]

2 hours ago, Darbsk said:

I get it if he's clearly BPA at that spot, but to then take another WR in the 3rd seems a bit like overkill to me, even if he is great value. We would then have Lamb, Ruggs, Williams, Renfrow, one of the above, Jones, Ateman and Doss. I guess we'd be trading Williams in that scenario and cutting the lower guys? 

Sorry I meant take Ruggs at 12, I really don't think Jets pass on Cee Dee

[Trojan]

What's your main disagreements with it BayRaider? The trades? Or generally where the prospects go (if so who are the biggest differences, and were the differences in my considered)?

Also thanks, I stayed up a little too late last night writing it and not paying attention to the time, was intending on going full first round but obviously stopped at ATL as 16 and posted it as a top15 lol. I spent like 20 minutes thinking about Cowboys do in that situation then saw the time. I think Cowboys look to move down a little as well and CJ Henderson is my top pick for them either as is or down a bit and Xavier McKinney and Grant Delpit are options 2 and 3. I might have missed a guy that is an obvious candidate though for the boys. I think trying to move down a slight bit and get a third would make sense to replace Travis Frederick with said third.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Trojan

[BayRaider]

2 minutes ago, Trojan said:

What's your main disagreements with it BayRaider? The trades? Or generally where the prospects go (if so who are the biggest differences, and were the differences in my considered)?

Mostly the trades. 
 

- I can see the Patriots trade up to the teens, but Bill is not the type of guy to give up crazy capital. To trade from 23 to 7 you’re looking at Pick 23, 2021 1st, and probably a 2021 2nd. Also Love is a way better scheme fit for McDaniels than Herbert. I think the Pats would rather trade up to 14-17 and try to get Love. 
 

- I don’t see Jags trading up at all unless they trade for Tua and shock the world (certainly possible). Otherwise they stay put and let Okudah, Simmons, or Derrick Brown fall right into their lap. 
 

The Bucs trade up is certainly a huge possibility, and the Redskins trade down if they trade Trent Williams is also a big possibility. I’m not sure those happens, but highly realistic. 
 

I’m all for Derrick Brown at 12 though. He’s my 5th Ranked Player in this class and he would make Maxx/Ferrell miles better. That’s the thing about DL’s, it’s like a domino effect. Brown can handle double teams, and therefore Ferrell/Maxx don’t face double teams. 
 

I’d jump up and down like a maniac if we got Derrick Brown. 
 

Post was pretty good overall. Just the Pats trade mostly that I didn’t agree with. 

[Trojan]

I didn't get further in, but the way it was heading I would have likely had Love going to Jacksonville with my reasoning being Jay Gruden and I remember in the Kaepernick/Dalton draft Jay reportedly really liking Kaepernick and I think Love could be a similar developmental but insane tools type guy (less running obviously and not the same type of prospect as a comp but a raw that would be awesome to develop type thing for Jay).

[Darbsk]

39 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

Sorry I meant take Ruggs at 12, I really don't think Jets pass on Cee Dee

Ah, that makes more sense! In that case then I would like to double dip on a receiver in the third if, as expected a player who presents great value is there.

[Bitty 2.0]

2 hours ago, OldManWillis said:

I would not, simple reason is to compete with KC we need more talent on defense. I do however, absolutely think we need one of the 3 top WR. 

 You’re right the Raiders were up by 17 and lost by a ton.

[oakdb36]

 

[NYRaider]

7 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

I'm sure Ruggs was targeted a lot less than Jeudy and Lamb over the last 2 years. I have no number to back up that claim but since he had a lot less receptions that would be logical. So a guy getting 100 targets (for example) with 9% coming on slants would have been targeted more frequently than the one with 60 targets with 13% coming on slants.

Also, i don't really understand this when the % don't add up to 100%. Where did the not listed targets go?

Not sure why those numbers don't add up to 100%. But based on PFF's draft guides over the last two years.

Ruggs was targeted 163 times during the last two years which breaks down to:

• Screens: 16 targets

• Go Route: 14 targets

• Crossing Route: 13 targets

• Slant Route: 18 targets

Jeudy was targeted 209 times during the last two years which breaks down to: 

• Screens: 31 targets

• Go Route: 23 targets

• Crossing Route: 12 targets

• Slant Route: 26 targets

Lamb was targeted 177 times during the last two years which breaks down to:

• Screens: 16 targets

• Go Route: 36 targets

• Crossing Route: 16 targets

• Slant Route: 16 targets

Edited March 31, 2020 by NYRaider

[oakdb36]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Ruggs was targeted 163 times during the last two years which breaks down to:

That's a surprisingly high number. So he roughly caught 50% of his targets?

[NJ Raider]

I want four main things to happen on the 23rd:

1.) Raiders get one of the top three wrs.

2.) They end up with an impact player at corner or safety at 19 or somewhere in the twenties in the event of a trade down.

3.) Chargers do not end up with Tua.

4.) Denver does not end up with one of the top three wrs. 

If those things happen, I will be quite content.