2020 NFL Draft Thread

[jimkelly02]

3 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

You don't move on this year, but that's why people are advocating for double dipping at WR if you get a Ruggs and a guy like Pittman or People-Jones later now you are set up for 2021. Or Lamb, Hamler

Exactly.  If you can replace an expensive starter in ‘21 with 3rd rounder from ‘20 it’s good move.  
 

Example: Draft Pittman at 80 over Robertson... in ‘21 cut Williams and Joyner and take that 20M and sign a nice slot CB for 5M (max 7 for an elite one) and spend the other 13-15M elsewhere.  

While you never want to sacrifice value and the likelihood a draft pick works out, you have to place some value on the potential savings of replacing a starter at an expensive position vs a cheap one.  It’s an opportunity cost scenario that should be factored into the value of drafting one player over the other.

[StocktonSav]

40 minutes ago, Trojan said:

I made kinda a nightmare scenario, what would you do here:

001. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
002. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, Edge Ohio State
003. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State || DET 009 + Yannick Ngakoue JAX 003
004. New York Giants: K’lavon Chaisson, Edge LSU
005. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
006. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
007. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
008. Atlanta Falcons: Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson || ARI 016 + 047 // ATL 008
009. Detroit Lions: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
010. Cleveland Browns: Ceedee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
011. New York Jets: Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
012. New England Patriots: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon || LVR 023 + 2021 1st // NE 012
013. San Francisco 49ers: Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina
014. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs, LT Iowa
015.  Denver Broncos: Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia
016. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Wills, RT Alabama
017. Dallas Cowboys: CJ Henderson, CB Florida
018. Miami Dolphins: Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville
019. Las Vegas Raiders: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
020. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
021. Philadelphia Eagles: Xavier McKinney, S
022. Minnesota Vikings: AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa
023. Las Vegas Raiders: Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah || NE 012 // LVR 23 + 2021 1st
024. New Orleans Saints: Patrick Queen, LB LSU
025. Minnesota Vikings: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
026. Miami Dolphins: Cesar Ruiz, IOL Michigan
027. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross Matos, Edge Penn State
028. Baltimore Ravens: Zach Baun, LB Wisconsin
029. Tennessee Titans: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
030. Green Bay Packers: Josh Jones, LT Houston
031. Cleveland Browns: Ezra Cleveland, LT Boise State || SF Odell Beckham + 074 // CLE 031
032. Kansas City Chiefs: Ross Blacklock, DT TCU

All 3 top WR being gone before 12 isnt ideal but Id be stocked if that type of trade back was available. Especially when it gives us 2 1sts next year.

Personally, not particularly high on Jefferson and just havent seen enough Johnson. If another trade back isnt available at 19, I would probably go Aiyuk and Terrell instead.

[jimkelly02]

Also in that scenario I’d try to get Ari to take 12,80,91 over 16, 47 and then take Simmons.

I can’t see a real scenario where None is the top 4 OT don’t go before 12.  If that’s the case I’d move up for one from 19, just because of value.

[roi34]

1 hour ago, raidr4life said:

You don't move on this year, but that's why people are advocating for double dipping at WR if you get a Ruggs and a guy like Pittman or People-Jones later now you are set up for 2021. Or Lamb, Hamler

So we agree. Lol 

[Devilshark69]

On 4/18/2020 at 12:51 PM, NYRaider said:

I like Johnson in the 4th/5th, he could be like a lesser version of Crabtree in the league. 

In the 4th would be great, 5th would be stealing him. Lol 

[drfrey13]

1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said:

Exactly.  If you can replace an expensive starter in ‘21 with 3rd rounder from ‘20 it’s good move.  
 

Example: Draft Pittman at 80 over Robertson... in ‘21 cut Williams and Joyner and take that 20M and sign a nice slot CB for 5M (max 7 for an elite one) and spend the other 13-15M elsewhere.  

While you never want to sacrifice value and the likelihood a draft pick works out, you have to place some value on the potential savings of replacing a starter at an expensive position vs a cheap one.  It’s an opportunity cost scenario that should be factored into the value of drafting one player over the other.

Thank you for that one.  It put a smile on my face.  

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

The argument to double dip on a WR isn’t to get a slot WR it’s to get two starting WRs.  

What starting level WR are we getting outside of the 2nd round this year? A ton of developmental guys but do those guys beat out Agholor or Jones for a roster spot?

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said:

Exactly.  If you can replace an expensive starter in ‘21 with 3rd rounder from ‘20 it’s good move.  
 

Example: Draft Pittman at 80 over Robertson... in ‘21 cut Williams and Joyner and take that 20M and sign a nice slot CB for 5M (max 7 for an elite one) and spend the other 13-15M elsewhere.  

Pittman is coming off of the board way before 80. He's likely going to be a top 50 pick. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said:

Also in that scenario I’d try to get Ari to take 12,80,91 over 16, 47 and then take Simmons.

Trading up for Simmons would be such a fail. He's going to be good but what role does he fill that players on our roster can't? Abram/Littleton do everything that Simmons would bring to our defense. We need to keep as much draft capital as possible and continue to build depth across the roster, giving up 3 picks for an off ball LB would be terrible value. 

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, Trojan said:

I made kinda a nightmare scenario, what would you do here:

001. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
002. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, Edge Ohio State
003. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State || DET 009 + Yannick Ngakoue JAX 003
004. New York Giants: K’lavon Chaisson, Edge LSU
005. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
006. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
007. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
008. Atlanta Falcons: Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson || ARI 016 + 047 // ATL 008
009. Detroit Lions: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
010. Cleveland Browns: Ceedee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
011. New York Jets: Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
012. New England Patriots: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon || LVR 023 + 2021 1st // NE 012
013. San Francisco 49ers: Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina
014. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tristan Wirfs, LT Iowa
015.  Denver Broncos: Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia
016. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Wills, RT Alabama
017. Dallas Cowboys: CJ Henderson, CB Florida
018. Miami Dolphins: Mekhi Becton, LT Louisville
019. Las Vegas Raiders: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
020. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
021. Philadelphia Eagles: Xavier McKinney, S
022. Minnesota Vikings: AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa
023. Las Vegas Raiders: Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah || NE 012 // LVR 23 + 2021 1st
024. New Orleans Saints: Patrick Queen, LB LSU
025. Minnesota Vikings: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
026. Miami Dolphins: Cesar Ruiz, IOL Michigan
027. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross Matos, Edge Penn State
028. Baltimore Ravens: Zach Baun, LB Wisconsin
029. Tennessee Titans: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
030. Green Bay Packers: Josh Jones, LT Houston
031. Cleveland Browns: Ezra Cleveland, LT Boise State || SF Odell Beckham + 074 // CLE 031
032. Kansas City Chiefs: Ross Blacklock, DT TCU

Although the pick next year from NE could be very good I might look into trading back with Cinci also.  They would have their choice of the top OT.  I do not like Johnson at 19 but if we get #33 from Cinci I would take him their.  Trade back with Cinci #12 for #33, #107, and 2021 1st.  Then trade back with #19.  #19 and #107 for #34 and 44 from the Colts.  Colts get their OT since the top ones will be gone before #34 and Rivers needs protection.  Win now mode.  I like the value in the first half of the 2nd more than the back half of the 1st.  We probably get a top 7 pick from Cincy next year.  Could get AJ, Higgins or Mims, and whoever is the top talent at #44.  There would still be a lot to pick from.  It would be a luxury pick that we could even trade away for another 2021 1st.  I might take Madubuike and look to get Dantzler, Brooks, and Hurts.  Then another WR like Claypool or Edwards if they are there in the 4th.

33 - CB AJ Terrell

34 - WR Tee Higgins

44 - DT Justin Madubuike

80 - QB Jalen Hurts

81 - OLB/ILB Jordyn Brooks

91 - CB Cameron Dantzler

121 - WR Bryan Edwards

159 - RB AJ Dillion

Bengals 2021 1st

I made you some lemonade.  Could just be a pipe dream also.

[jimkelly02]

56 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Trading up for Simmons would be such a fail. He's going to be good but what role does he fill that players on our roster can't? Abram/Littleton do everything that Simmons would bring to our defense. We need to keep as much draft capital as possible and continue to build depth across the roster, giving up 3 picks for an off ball LB would be terrible value. 

That’s your opinion and certainly fine but i think he can be an elite defender and worth every penny.  His coverage is nice and all but I think he can be a 8-12 sack player.  I don’t feel we need a ton of roster spots filled and getting an elite player is worth it.

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

What starting level WR are we getting outside of the 2nd round this year? A ton of developmental guys but do those guys beat out Agholor or Jones for a roster spot?

No one knows how WRs are going to Fall on the board.  If I say Pittman or Claypool you’ll say they’ll be gone. I think one of the top 12 WRs could make it to 80 though.  And if we had to trade up for Pittman, etc id have I problem doing it.  I think we’re past the point of needing to draft just for depth and should be targeting a smaller amount of impactful players.

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

Thank you for that one.  It put a smile on my face.  

No one ever talks about the value of drafting a player at a position it would either cost a high amount of money to sign in FA or the savings of replacing a veteran on the roster.  That’s why slot CB is one of my least valued draft positions.  They’re always (and still are some in FA) plentiful and cheap in FA.  I value the position to the appropriate degree but if I’m picking at 80, for instance, and i can get equally rated players... both guys will be solid starters by year 2, then I’m taking a WR (or LT) over a slot CB (or RB) every time.  I’m theoretically getting a $10M WR (Or $12M LT) for $2M and can sign my choice of slot CB for $3-5M (or RB for $2-6M).  

We all believe in drafting BPA over need is the key to success.  Every team has limited resources ( salary cap space and draft picks).  It’s important to fill your roster with as many quality draft picks (on cheap rookie deals) at positions that command top dollar in FA as possible.  Then you can fill in the cheaper positions (RB, slot CB, S, etc) with free agents on low cost deals.  

Now i’m not saying don’t draft slot CB, RB, S.  What im saying is if you have equal quality of players and believe they both will have equal quality careers it’s better to take the one that at more expensive position to fill in FA.

[Trojan]

3 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

If Love is there at 19 Indy/Chicago could offer a 2nd plus Future first.  
 

Note: I think it’s way more plausible to get a deal like 2 2nds for 19 but i don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibilities a team who thinks Love is a franchise QB (and values a rookie deal QB), is unlikely to draft high in ‘21, and has tight cap situation in future years, would be willing to pay a little now (2nd) and a first in the future for a QB.

Love went 6th in the scenario though

[jimkelly02]

11 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Love went 6th in the scenario though

Sorry I missed that.  Definitely a unique scenario.