Official 2020 WR Thread

[Ragnarok]

Just now, beekay414 said:

Lazy might not have been the right word. LIS, I thought he looked slow in short area stuff for his supposed 4.5 time. I don't see the fluidity that others see and I definitely don't see how someone can call him the most fluid WR of this class when Jeudy is far more fluid than anyone else. I just don't want a learning curve WR for Green Bay. I also don't see a 1st round grade when I watch him but that much should be obvious. At 62? Maybe. That would depend on the board but he's just too raw and comes from a system I can't stand. Mims  is similar but he's got better physical tools than Aiyuk and Reagor seems like he's better in space. We all have our guys. I get it. I just don't have a great feeling about Aiyuk. 

Oh, I completely agree Jeudy is the most fluid WR in this class.  No question.  if you told me we could give up our first this year and next(which would likely be the cost), to get Jeudy...I might do it.

As for Aiyuk, I saw some routes where he would play 'slow' to set up a screen or underneath route.  Now, he can have some issues against press and needs to get a little better with his handfighting.  So maybe that's what you saw?  But the 4.50 speed was at the combine and I was surprised he was that slow.

I think any WR that GB can realistically get will have a learning curve.  

I have Mims a touch behind Aiyuk and do think he will be good.  I would let someone else draft Reagor.  At some point, soft tissue injuries take their toll and he scares me.  I could see Reagor being like Will Fuller.  Dynamic when he can actually get on the field...which isn't that often.

[Awsi Dooger]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

WR's always fall later than expected. Every year. No matter how ridiculously hyped up the the WR class is. I have the WRs falling much more farther than most.

12. Jerry Jeudy - LV

13. Henry Ruggs III - SF

19. CeeDee Lamb - PHI (trade up over Jac)

30. Justin Jefferson - GB

40. Denzel Mims - HOU

46. Brandon Aiyuk - DEN

I have Reagor, Higgins, and Hamler going shortly after this in Round 2.

I do not think Vikings will draft a WR in the 1st Round, even with Jefferson on the board. They need an OT, the 49ers literally embarrassed them in the trenches in the divisional game like they were a High School team. I think they go OT like Josh Jones or Austin Jackson at 22 and CB at 25. And Hamler at 58. As for the Broncos skipping WR, I have Kinlaw falling in their lap. Perfect 3-4 DE. And Colts will trade 34/44 into the 1st to get Love imo. So no WR at 34/44.

There's a reason wide receivers slide. And they should slide further. Very difficult position to evaluate. The league has a poor history in drafting wide receivers, whether you evaluate the short term or the long term. There's no reason to expect that to change.

CommonManFootball is one of my favorite analytics evaluators on YouTube. He doesn't have as much content this year but a few days ago he had an interesting breakdown of the draft success rate by position and by round, using 1969 as starting point and also 2005 as starting point. Success is defined as 64+ starts. I realize people will quibble about that as opposed to also using stats or other amendments. But it is the correct type of focus. The idea is to include high numbers in the sample and not keep slicing and slicing and slicing until your "success" definition is so narrow, and varied by position, that it's virtually meaningless. 

Quarterback and wide receiver were the only positions that fell below 50% success rate as early as the second round, whether the spotlight is long term or short term.

It is excusable at quarterback, given the extreme payoff at that position when you do click. With wide receiver it appears to be a position that is simply over coveted and over drafted.

IMO, the reason scouts fail at wide receiver is that the offseason clouds what that position has become. Everyone prefers to view it as gazelle's gliding into space and grabbing a perfectly placed bomb. Yeah, that was the NFL of old, when passes were seldom and consequently you had to make the most of them. It was the Bob Hayes, Don Maynard, Cliff Branch, Isaac Curtis NFL. Speed mattered. Nowadays the passing game is like the running game of old so the necessities are like the running backs of old. It is the grinding, tenacious, clutch, instinctive, mentally and physically taxing move the chains part of the game. Prima donnas and speed merchants don't work anymore, as much as the boxing types who can sustain just the correct blend of composure and athletic arrogance. I can't imagine drafting a wide receiver high without getting to know the personality far beyond anything seen on tape:

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Awsi Dooger

[battle2heaven]

So I like Aiyuk, but I can see why some people don’t. For me, he’s behind the top 3 plus Jefferson, mims, and reagor. He’s in the beginning of that next tier with Hamler. 
 

some of the negatives:

-27th percentile in breakout age. 
-Largest % of his production was screens compared to his peers. 
-limited route tree: screen(26%), go(19%), and skinny posts(25%). 
-doesn’t currently have a successful plan in beating press coverage. 
 

[Ray Reed]

I don’t get the Mims hype - I really don’t. 

I’d have Aiyuk, Higgins, Reagor, and Hamler all in front of him.

[goldfishwars]

25 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

I don’t get the Mims hype - I really don’t. 

I’d have Aiyuk, Higgins, Reagor, and Hamler all in front of him.

Watch the Oklahoma game

[Forge]

41 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

I don’t get the Mims hype - I really don’t. 

 

H / W / S. Does make some spectacular catches, but he can't catch well. It's the amazing catches that people remember though. 

I think he will struggle at the next level, personally. Great athletic profiles don't always translate if you can't do the little stuff (or big stuff). I don't know that he can consistently make catches when a corner has good coverage on him. I don't know that his hands will ever be consistent. These are notable problems for me. I like him in the mid to late second round, but I view him as a project. 

On a personal level, tired of being fooled by Baylor receivers LOL 

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

WR's always fall later than expected. Every year. No matter how ridiculously hyped up the the WR class is. I have the WRs falling much more farther than most.

Do they though?  Going back the last five years, in two of those five years we've seen at least two of them go in the top 10.  In a third year, the first WR went off the board at 15.  Comparatively speaking, which WR class would you compare this year's class to?  I think this class is similar to the 2015 class.  That WR class was heavily hyped, and this year's WR class should be no different.  Between 11-15, you could legitimately make an argument that all those teams could take a WR.

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, VanS said:

About a year ago ya'll got on me when I said Jerry Jeudy was not an elite WR prospect because his physical tools were unexceptional.  Chris Simms the other day essentially cosigned that take.  He doesn't have Jeudy as a top 5 WR in this draft.

And you would both be wrong.

[THE DUKE]

I'll take Greg Cosell's opinion over Chris Simms 100 times out of 100

[sherm]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

 

On a personal level, tired of being fooled by Baylor receivers LOL 

???

[Ragnarok]

3 hours ago, battle2heaven said:

So I like Aiyuk, but I can see why some people don’t. For me, he’s behind the top 3 plus Jefferson, mims, and reagor. He’s in the beginning of that next tier with Hamler. 
 

some of the negatives:

-27th percentile in breakout age. 
-Largest % of his production was screens compared to his peers. 
-limited route tree: screen(26%), go(19%), and skinny posts(25%). 
-doesn’t currently have a successful plan in beating press coverage. 
 

He was JUCO, so I'm not too worried about his breakout age.  I also don't think you can fault him for running the plays ASU designed.

I do agree he has to work on his route tree.  But year one, you have him do underneath stuff and deep shots while developing the intermediate part.  Also agree he has to get better getting off press.

[G08]

@goldfishwarsand others... any burners you like in the 5-7 range?

[Jeezla]

3 minutes ago, G08 said:

@goldfishwarsand others... any burners you like in the 5-7 range?

Quez Watkins
Darrell Mooney

Watkins should go in the 4th though.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Jeezla

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

@goldfishwarsand others... any burners you like in the 5-7 range?

@Jeezla mentioned a couple I like Quez Watkins and Darnell Mooney. Trishton Jackson from Syracuse is a vertical deep threat receiver, who won't give you much else. 

Joe Reed from Virginia is my favorite late round receiver though, big time return game and an underrated workout at the combine. He was crazy in high school and became a primary deep threat and a speedy/screen receiver in the passing game at Virginia, which was kind of limited. I think he's better that what he's been able to put out on tape. 

[BleedTheClock]

If you’re looking for a pure burner late, Jeff Thomas. But he had a small catch radius and a ridiculous ego for the meh player he is.