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Official 2020 QB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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On 11/16/2019 at 1:42 PM, NoDakViking said:

Who is this guy and how does he know exact specifics of the injury already?

If his dislocation caused any damage to arteries in that area, it's possible blood flow to the femoral head will compromised causing AVN.  His career would be over and will need a total hip replacement if that is the case   

That is what happened to Bo and I have seen a femoral head with AVN erode in less than 6 months.

I hope that is not the case but it may be a career ender.  

Edited by Frankie2Gunz
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I don't see why people see Herbert as so overrated.  Like, He has made Oregon a better team when he's on the field vs off, he's improved year to year, and most importantly, he has the tools. I feel were seeing with Burrow now, if with the right coach, you can overcome your inconsistencies. But Herbert has been playing pretty well this year IMO overall considering he doesn't have a dominant skill position player.  I will say he has a good line, so he could be a dominant prospect. But at the same time, he's been playing well as he has his entire college career, which is a big plus in terms of consistency which is promising, and he has a high end physical skillset.  I mean, I feel have a guy like Eli Manning to Phillip Rivers at their peaks in terms of passing. A road in between because they both have the same inconsistency, but the guy has the ability to improve a lot and in the draft, that has to be evaluated. 

Compared to Burrow, I feel he's the more talented QB prospect. Burrow just seems to have that innate sense though which is why he should go higher. Just, the sense the he will be a great QB regardless of physical skills.  Id compare it to Matt Ryan.  Matt Ryan was never an elite athlete, he was an older QB prospect, but the guy was a high end QB prospect despite lacking clear high end physical tools.  Just watching him, I feel I got the sense .  Cant explain it and I'm not scout, so can't really argue that point much more.

In terms of Tua I feel has always been overrated. He just has too much of a talented team around him to properly evaluate him for me at least. Like, its hard to say he has great vision over the field when his WRs are always sprinting past everyone because they can destroy throwing windows themselves. I think he would have been a Dwayne Haskins type prospect that saw struggle initially and would have to adjust to the same issues Haskins is having to now in terms of arm talent. He's gotta make decisions a lot faster, just like Haskins now has to. He and Haskins don't have a physical advantage in the NFL unlike Herbert or even Jones from a year ago in terms of a big body that can escape sacks. Tua's a small QB who maybe can, we don't see it with him,  but one that doesn't scramble.  His entire college career is going to change based on his physical skillset.  To me, Tuas upside is a current Kirk Cousins type QB, which is a really damn good QB, but only fits certain offenses/skillsets.  

But I feel personally too much is made about Tua's production vs Herberts physical skillset being best in the class and Burrows complete ability to dominate with, in Burrows sense, a bigger body that can handle hits and his NFL QB sense at the college level I can't really explain.  But i truly believe that Burrow will be the top QB picked and Herbert will be a much closer 2nd than people expect. Just as I expect Herbert would have been and is a top 10 pick right after him. Because if we look at Daniel Jones from a year ago, Herbert seems at worse a similar prospect and arguably better.  So why shouldn't be be evaluated higher

Edited by PacAttack04
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8 hours ago, PacAttack04 said:

But Herbert has been playing pretty well this year.

I will say he has a good line, so he could be a dominant prospect.

But at the same time, he's been playing well as he has his entire college career, which is a big plus in terms of consistency which is promising, and he has a high end physical skillset.  

These 3 statements kind of sum up Herbert for many. I'll give you my take as someone who isn't high on him. 

1. Exactly, he's been playing "pretty well". Not exactly fantastic outside of the box score, but pretty good. He's also played some bad teams, and often plays down to inferior competition while failing to show up against equal or more dominant competition as you'd expect a high 1st Rounder to. 

2..He also takes silly sacks and tends to.run backwards while forgetting to throw the ball away. It's hard to look bad when your line is as good as Oregon's, yet low and behold, he's found a way to look mercilessly underwhelming at times. 

3. Yes again, he's been highly consistently good against bad teams and mediocre against good teams. He's had a few flashes. But I'm just not seeing a whole lot of development. Not to say he hasn't, but we all know the folly of the "pro ready QB". I'd say he came in ready to be an NFL backup and will leave as someone who can win.a handful of games. I question his ceiling and whether or.not it's a case pf people being obsessed with "tools". 

Not necessarily saying he'll be a bad QB in the NFL, but I know myself and a few other Ducks fans have been largely underwhelmed by him and still just don't see 1st round talent out of him. 

That being said, this is a low key ugly QB class now IMO, so I don't see Herbert's stock dropping at all under any circumstances at this point.

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This far into the CFB season, here's my QB model's draft projections:

Quarterback College Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance
J. Burrow LSU 6.33 41.29% 49.34%
J. Hurts Okahoma 5.97 46.82% 44.06%
T. Tagovailoa Alabama 5.95 47.21% 43.68%
J. Herbert Oregon 5.24 58.23% 33.16%
J. Fromm Georgia 4.19 74.66% 17.46%

This is assuming their draft position based on some things I've read (ex.: Burrow in the top 10). It's not a perfect system and I've noticed some potential issues (ex.: there currently isn't a great SOS adjustment), so it might be back to the drawing board with it, but for now this is how things shake out.

(And if Justin Fields could declare he'd be the No. 1 at 6.42). 

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