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Official 2020 QB Thread

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13 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Cole McDonald baby!

Kinda has the hitch wind up like Flip, looks designed in a lab for San Diego, do the right thing Chargers, take your boy and move back home.

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2 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

Kinda has the hitch wind up like Flip, looks designed in a lab for San Diego, do the right thing Chargers, take your boy and move back home.

He’s not my boy lol I think it’s hilarious he declared. He throws the ball like Uncle Rico

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Counselor said:

He’s not my boy lol I think it’s hilarious he declared. He throws the ball like Uncle Rico

I was talking more so to the Chargers haha. I’ll admit, I’d be more interested in him than some of the other QBs thought to be late round talents. Good size, athleticism, strange delivery but he seems to know how to use it, maneuvers within a pocket decent enough. By no means claiming him as some great talent but there’s some tools to keep me interested if I’m a coach looking for a QB 3. 

Edited by Fureys49ers

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12 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Jamie Newman?  He is in the transfer portal so pretty sure that is a sign he is not declaring early for the draft.  Also Love is a much better long term talent and has far superior arm talent than Jalen Hurts, Jalen has him in terms of toughness and leadership sure but Love could throw circles around Jalen Hurts.  Shea Patterson is pretty damn good and arguably the best passer on the run in motion of anyone on this list.  

 

Newman applying for the transfer portal around the time Fromm declared....sounds like a match (Georgia & Newman).   Dude can sling it.

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I split the data in my model to test it against out-of-sample data, and made some changes based on that (correlation is 0.50). With just one game left in the college season, my model's rankings stand at:

Z20U8rpca3xsjC_RQPIATq6_iWobXFE0yGczg0LqFK7kwJjoWifLaVOhdGMI5kCEoR8OxhCG6V43S7rkT6E0mQYiAoTptaF1pnQ0otRoCwuZhNIwPdtLBho-MUJkIxpP8PuEgFkj

  • Model adjustment bumps Burrow down to 5th since 2006 (Newton)
  • Model adjustment flips Stanley and Eason

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Final projections for this year:

There's a new red variable here that's the probability that each quarterback matches the average from the 2006-2016 Rounds 1-3 sample that I used to create the model, which was around 89 rather than 100. 

BLG2YoZ3UOLkhf7-NyG8ecFXa8ZJZPitPbsrWRq5DDWLplQSd-QRPtBocw6s4sxH1pYaxMCju7iOmEglzBMan8_gzImfhwRxMA4QkE62WiiAgkMrITg89GaagOHSwXRWNGdteDYr

  • Burrow's championship game performance boosted him above Newton and Mayfield to 3rd since 2006 (Murray, Mariota).

Hopefully I'll get some time to do some tape study with these guys to get some complete grades (probably weighting it half-and-half).

And the raw point estimate for ANY/A+ (can be interpreted as a rough 0-100 grade):

F9b-2MZKaEm5TQ24K95mnC4h1m15mNPFSo1UIixtOqq55I-9A9Ia-9wlIeeZNgtNciVTgn1W4yKaX6mujFG3k90T4Tcg0TRqkCytM4Zw32qFgmNr8f3CM2ly4tSlJwKjOltMRzJT

Obviously it wasn't exactly created for this purpose so some of the intervals between players seem pretty small.

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This thread really opened my eyes to Anthony Gordon, QB Washington State. Dude has crazy physical traits and could develop into something special with time. He will be at the Senior Bowl next week.

 

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3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

This thread really opened my eyes to Anthony Gordon, QB Washington State. Dude has crazy physical traits and could develop into something special with time. He will be at the Senior Bowl next week.

 

Take him instead of Burrow.

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2 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Has Herbert ever thrown a pass that isn't a 1,000mph fast ball?

Still, if Josh Allen and Daniel Jones can enjoy draft seasons that seduce teams into spending top five picks on them then Herbert is absolutely gifted enough to do the same.

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56 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Still, if Josh Allen and Daniel Jones can enjoy draft seasons that seduce teams into spending top five picks on them then Herbert is absolutely gifted enough to do the same.

Josh Allen went 7th and Jones went 6th

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On 1/8/2020 at 10:51 PM, Counselor said:

Can’t wait for Fromm to prove everyone wrong 

Doubt it.  He lacks consistent accuracy, has poor vision, and fails to go through his reads.  Unless he completely does a 180', I don't see it. 

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8 hours ago, Counselor said:

Josh Allen went 7th and Jones went 6th

Okay and neither had the rep Herbert has coming in and both ended up being pushed up as the draft season wore on. The need to QBs is so seductive and when you're as toolsy as Herbert, he's not just gonna drift into the arms of the Colts at 13.

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On 1/8/2020 at 8:18 PM, HoboRocket said:

Nope. Not worth a top-20 pick unless he proves otherwise. I watched a lot of his games this year and came back underwhelmed. He can make a splashy throw every once in a while, but Love seems to be much more Paxton Lynch than Patrick Mahomes in my book.

Mahomes was a first-round prospect all the way. Unreal production, unreal tools, and QB character. Not sure about Love's QB character, he didn't seem like a ra-ra leader guy or a smoldering intensity on the field type either. He has above average tools, possibly top-10 starting QB tools. But he doesn't read the field at all. And he has Josh Allen moments with his accuracy, where it's more shotgun than rifle. Not as mobile as Allen to make up for it, either.

However, we may learn a lot more on Love as the draft process continues. If he aces interviews and I hear glowing reports about his work ethic/character, then I'll believe. Because for me, I avoid looking at tools-guys as first-round prospects unless they either have good production against good competition, fantastic production against mediocre competition, or the character and intelligence that makes me believe they will work hard enough to develop and understand enough to actually do so.

Starting to come around on Love the more I see of him.

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