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Official 2020 QB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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On 3/10/2020 at 3:11 AM, Awsi Dooger said:

I don't know why anyone cares about Jordan Love in 2019. It was blatantly obvious how much that team and specifically the offense would plummet. I remember posting warnings about that on several sites immediately following the 2018 season. There was some discussion that Love would turn pro at that point. He wasn't ready but it made sense anyway given the inevitable freefall in 2019.

The one thing I've always stood by is that if you're coming up with qualifiers as to why to discredit data, you're probably not arguing from the strongest platform to begin with.  And it wasn't like he had a bunch of players drafted into the NFL last year.  Darwin Thompson was the only one drafted.  If you want to argue the coaching staff change affected him, that's probably a more legitimate argument.

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21 hours ago, samsel23 said:

I get the Mahomes comparisons for Love.  It makes sense.  
 

Not sure it’s as much of an accuracy issue, as field vision.  Imo that’s where Mahomes really shines, is his ability to see the whole field and know what the key on.    Mahomes still struggles with accuracy as well,   But mainly when he misreads the defense.   If Love goes to a coach that really takes the time to teach Love what to look for,  he can be a special player.

Love is more akin to Kaepernick. He's going to come in and be a project from a school in the smaller western conference with a big frame and athletic capability.

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On 3/11/2020 at 11:27 AM, CWood21 said:

The one thing I've always stood by is that if you're coming up with qualifiers as to why to discredit data, you're probably not arguing from the strongest platform to begin with.  And it wasn't like he had a bunch of players drafted into the NFL last year.  Darwin Thompson was the only one drafted.  If you want to argue the coaching staff change affected him, that's probably a more legitimate argument.

But how legit is it? Wells went to TT who was awful. It's just a bunch of excuses for a guy that they want to like. The proof is right in front of them, purposely being ignored so they can believe what they want. 2019 is far more relevant than 2018 b/c things that happen now are far more important than things that happened in the past. He regressed, big time. Still has potential but he's not even close to being first round material IMO.

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22 hours ago, Danger said:

Love is more akin to Kaepernick. He's going to come in and be a project from a school in the smaller western conference with a big frame and athletic capability.

I also feel like there is a bit of Halo Effect going on. Daniel Jones flashed pretty well his rookie year despite his predraft status among most. Because of that, people are more likely to explain away faults due to external rather than internal factors, ala Jordan Love.

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I’ll use the “all Wisconsin RBs won’t make it in the NFL because of history” to explain why Justin Herbert won’t last in the NFL.

By that same logic Justin Herbert should be passed over in the draft. History of Oregon QBs drafted high.

Akili Smith

Joey Harrington

Marcus Mariota

As a caveat I don’t actually believe this but I haven’t actually seen anyone make this argument yet. Everyone uses it as to why a guy like Jonathan Taylor won’t be successful. Just thought it was an interesting anecdote. 
 

Carry on.

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19 minutes ago, badgers0821 said:

I’ll use the “all Wisconsin RBs won’t make it in the NFL because of history” to explain why Justin Herbert won’t last in the NFL.

By that same logic Justin Herbert should be passed over in the draft. History of Oregon QBs drafted high.

Akili Smith

Joey Harrington

Marcus Mariota

As a caveat I don’t actually believe this but I haven’t actually seen anyone make this argument yet. Everyone uses it as to why a guy like Jonathan Taylor won’t be successful. Just thought it was an interesting anecdote. 
 

Carry on.

Didn't Gordon already kinda break that myth though?

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27 minutes ago, badgers0821 said:

I was more or less making a joke that people still use that as an argument. Yea, Gordon broke that logic down...but I still hear “but he’s the only one”. People are ridiculous.

I am not a fan of that argument.

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1 hour ago, badgers0821 said:

I was more or less making a joke that people still use that as an argument. Yea, Gordon broke that logic down...but I still hear “but he’s the only one”. People are ridiculous.

 

1 hour ago, badgers0821 said:

I was more or less making a joke that people still use that as an argument. Yea, Gordon broke that logic down...but I still hear “but he’s the only one”. People are ridiculous.

I will say though, When I see talented Offensive Linemen Prospect coming out of Wisconsin, I favor him until someone else really wows me. So there is something to be said about how a school produces certain positions. Kinda like TE B. Jordan out of Miami is already one of my top TE's because of what they have produced in the past. It's alright to use it as a tiebreaker or starting point IMO 

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9 hours ago, vikes635 said:

 

I will say though, When I see talented Offensive Linemen Prospect coming out of Wisconsin, I favor him until someone else really wows me. So there is something to be said about how a school produces certain positions. Kinda like TE B. Jordan out of Miami is already one of my top TE's because of what they have produced in the past. It's alright to use it as a tiebreaker or starting point IMO 

Agreed, but success for a position at a school is much more telling than failures.

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On 26/02/2020 at 1:00 PM, BayRaider said:

Love and Eason play absolutely nothing like Allen and do not have his skillset. I don’t box score scout. Just because I don’t think Herbert is a 1st Round talent doesn’t mean I hate him. I just think think he’s seriously over valued as a prospect. Like #6 to the Chargers is over-the-top ridiculous. 

Honestly, Josh Allen is like...if you somehow merged Love and Eason.  He's got the size and arm of the latter, with the mobility of the former.  They both have traits that are really intriguing...but neither of them comes close to the "ideal traits total package" that made teams look so hard at Josh Allen as a prospect coming out of nowhere with underwhelming stats.

 

On 26/02/2020 at 2:38 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

For reference, this was last year's:

EDIT:  And 2018.

 

 

I mean, it's nice to chart some games an partially arbitrary measures and it's nice and easy to look at the pretty colours for what's red/orange/yellow/green...and determine who is going to be a good QB based on that.  But it doesn't seem to have done the greatest job of doing that as a model tbh.  Highlights some weaknesses in some here and there, while suggesting other strengths.  Where in the real world of NFL football...things have been pretty different.

 

On 28/02/2020 at 4:00 PM, HoboRocket said:

It can be surmised by the totals, though. However, as has been specified by this dude before, it's based off of what he deems an accurate pass or not. So some completed passes actually go AGAINST the QB. Likewise, incomplete passes may be counted in favor of the quarterback if the receiver failed to make a play on the ball or dropped it. This generally hurts inaccurate QBs playing in wide-open schemes, because if they throw a bad pass and the target bails them out, it'll be counted as a negative. So Hurts' numbers are more or less legit. The way these passes are charted creates scheme parity - at least partially. I'll get into that next.

Now, with Love, it wouldn't really help him despite his tendency to throw a great football because he's playing while throwing into really tight windows. Now, you may be thinking "Oh, that's okay. The tight-window throws will be listed as accurate even if they weren't completed. Great." However, this isn't the case, because DBs were constantly in position to make plays on his passes. It doesn't matter if your passes are thrown into tight windows that most QBs couldn't DREAM of fitting the ball into if the DB can still intercept or knockdown the pass. That's why this is only partial parity. Even with the assumed penalty to spread and air raid QBs, there's not really a way for the NUMBERS to gauge the accuracy of a QB playing in a situation where they're throwing into tight windows IF the DBs can make a play on the ball. And even if Love is throwing a tight spiral and fitting it into a tight window, it probably doesn't help his numbers that he can't read the field like AT ALL so his passes probably aren't being thrown to the most efficient location.

This is certainly part of it.  But i think it goes deeper.  In that it's just so darn difficult to truly account for differences in systems, surrounding talent, and scheme.  What is the QB even being asked to do?  It's the same problem as things like PFF...where it's guesstimating as to assignments, it's ill-equipped to weight the effect of better/worse surrounding/opposi cast who might be more or less open, or more or less likely to be in place to make an interceptions...and it really just comes down to the opinion of the person "charting" the examples.

 

On 04/03/2020 at 7:48 AM, SteelKing728 said:

Is Jacob Eason just another Jake Locker?

Not even remotely.  Jake Locker coming out was much more like a "poor man's Josh Allen".  Run around and do stuff type QB.  Eason is far more...pocket statue Carson Palmer type, with that big arm if you can keep a pocket clean.  Totally radically different types of QB prospect.

 

On 04/03/2020 at 8:52 AM, Fullback said:

My initial (lazy) Herbert comp was Josh Allen. I haven't figured Herbert out yet. One rep he gets it and then he doesn't. Something seems wrong when he aims even the easiest passes, but I can't tell what it is yet. Then watching another rep he gets it and is fluid. Maybe he needs to get in a groove. Ultimately, after watching 2 tapes of Herbert I think he can immediately be a more effective passer than Josh Allen was as a rookie. Put Herbert into the right offensive scheme and he can shine. Force him to start early in an old school offense will make him look worse than he is. I was lower on him initially, but ultimately he is a legit 1st round QB. Which nowadays basically means that he is a top 10 lock.

As for Love, I get the "poor man's Mahomes" comp. They have some similarities. But even as a prospect with question marks that Mahomes has been, I got a much better vibe about Mahomes as a prospect in terms of decisions and safe ball placement. Mahomes had to fight against his own defense (worst in the nation) more so than against the defenses he was facing. Yet having to air it out and take high risks on each possession, Mahomes didn't throw as many dangerous balls as pundits claimed. Love couldn't even protect the football in much better circumstances than Mahomes. It's partly a mental thing, but probably one of the single most important traits of the QB position.

Love gets a 2nd round grade from me. No doubt some team will get their hands on him in the 1st. Wouldn't shock me at all if it's in the the low teens. But I'd definitely take Herbert over Love after digging deeper into Herbert. Their ceilings are about the same. Herbert needs refinement as well. But he is at a more advanced stage when comparing mental aspects. Love might never hit that stage.

The comp for me with Herbert...is basically...Blake Bortles with a more natural throwing motion.

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