Official 2020 QB Thread

[BayRaider]

I’m surprised Jordan Love scored a wonderlic of 27. His biggest issue is reading and understanding defenses, that score shows he is smart enough to learn them. 
 

Tuas 19 and Hurts 18 really is concerning though. I’d still select Tua if picking in the Top 5, but wonderlics should (and probably do) take a small part in QB Evaluation. Shows IQ, and more importantly, how fast their brain can solve problems (like a QB going through progressions).

Average Wonderlic for a Super Bowl Winning QB is 30.7. And thats without including Brady six times, Eli twice, etc. Only counts everyone once. 
 

And the percentages of QBs under 20 is really horrid. You have outliers like Marino at 16 and Jim Kelly at 14. But from a percentage standpoint, it’s really unlikely to succeed. Lamar had 13 but he is not a good pure passer at all, very curious how he’ll do without Greg Roman in the future who also make Kaepernick look like a Top 8-10 QB. 
 

Edited April 20, 2020 by BayRaider

[BayRaider]

12 hours ago, Counselor said:

His Dad made the right call

Yeah if I’m a QB with multiple offers I’m staying away from the entire Pac 12 and to a lesser extent, Alabama. QB transition to the NFL isn’t pretty from those schools. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

7 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I’m surprised Jordan Love scored a wonderlic of 27. His biggest issue is reading and understanding defenses, that score shows he is smart enough to learn them. 
 

LOL No it doesn't. It shows he can take a test. There are plenty of people who are awful test takers but really smart and people who are excellent test takers but have the common sense that resembles a rock. I'm not saying that's your boy but I am saying it doesn't really mean anything except he scored well on a test.

The Wonderlic is a joke of a measuring stick.

Edited April 20, 2020 by JTagg7754

[Teen Girl Squad]

1 hour ago, JTagg7754 said:

LOL No it doesn't. It shows he can take a test. There are plenty of people who are awful test takers but really smart and people who are excellent test takers but have the common sense that resembles a rock. I'm not saying that's your boy but I am saying it doesn't really mean anything except he scored well on a test.

The Wonderlic is a joke of a measuring stick.

Agreed. The only think that it does is show the truly dumb/lazy preparers (low end of the spectrum) and that is really a)most for QBs and b)far from definite.  It would just make me dig in a bit deeper. The difference between 20, 30, 40 is completely meaningless as far as talent eval.

[Awsi Dooger]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I’m surprised Jordan Love scored a wonderlic of 27. His biggest issue is reading and understanding defenses, that score shows he is smart enough to learn them. 
 

Tuas 19 and Hurts 18 really is concerning though. I’d still select Tua if picking in the Top 5, but wonderlics should (and probably do) take a small part in QB Evaluation. Shows IQ, and more importantly, how fast their brain can solve problems (like a QB going through progressions).

Average Wonderlic for a Super Bowl Winning QB is 30.7. And thats without including Brady six times, Eli twice, etc. Only counts everyone once. 
 

And the percentages of QBs under 20 is really horrid. You have outliers like Marino at 16 and Jim Kelly at 14. But from a percentage standpoint, it’s really unlikely to succeed. Lamar had 13 but he is not a good pure passer at all, very curious how he’ll do without Greg Roman in the future who also make Kaepernick look like a Top 8-10 QB. 
 

Wonderlic should play more than a small part. The odds of that 30+ being a fluke are increasingly low, as the sample size rises. I saw somebody here mock the Wonderlic based on Marino scoring low and Fitzpatrick very high. That was hilarious. Are you really going to allow outlier mentality to play a role on this site? That should be shouted down here and everywhere. Outliers are worthless bar stool caliber thinking. In a bar stool setting as soon as somebody hoists an outlier example the other guy says, "That's a good point." They toast and then the conversation changes. I am never popular in that setting because I emphasize it is not a good point. It is nothing but a meaningless deflection. The spotlight needs to be on the totality, not the outlier. Once you are desperately summoning an outlier it means you are making the other guy's point, not your own. 

And the Wonderlic averaging really it should include the number for every title, not just once. Let's say a quarterback with a Wonderlic of 8 won the Super Bowl 6 times. How often do you think we'd hear about that from the deniers? Nonstop. Yet somehow those deniers think it's perfectly fine to include Brady's 33 only once and mostly dismiss the entirety as nothing but a creation of Bill Belichick.

Tape needs to play a steadily lesser role. That is where we are headed, whether the conventional wisdom types like it or not. More of a math-based focus. And as that happens it is well earned. Nobody would need to do all the advanced stats like quarterback accuracy at all ranges if the subjective versions based on tape held any type of competency level over the decades. It really shouldn't be possible for the quarterback connect percentages to be so incompetent. Film caused it. 

I'm not surprised at Jordan Love's 27. During that 2018 season there were numerous articles and videos mentioning how smart he was. Love obviously has never had ideal coaching. Otherwise there is no chance he would be forcing the ball to outside receivers so frequently. I provided those numbers a few weeks ago, that Love somehow throws the ball to outside receivers 42% of the  time compared to only 38% to slot receivers. The NFL now targets 55% to slot receivers. Joe Burrow was the only prospect in this draft who was close to the pro tendency at 47% to slot receivers and only 29% to outside receivers. That is an indication of superior coaching and instincts. Burrow knows where to prioritize at the snap while Love is still in playground mentality where it's big plays to the outside. 

I'm not claiming it's an immediate fix. Love has other issues like longer than ideal delivery. But once a sharp coaching staff gets him into a room and conditioning to look inside-out there is potential for Love to return to 2018 level quicker than we expect. 

 

[BayRaider]

6 hours ago, JTagg7754 said:

LOL No it doesn't. It shows he can take a test. There are plenty of people who are awful test takers but really smart and people who are excellent test takers but have the common sense that resembles a rock. I'm not saying that's your boy but I am saying it doesn't really mean anything except he scored well on a test.

The Wonderlic is a joke of a measuring stick.

Wonderlic shows fast your brain can solve problems, it's a timed test. It's not a joke or lie that some peoples brains work faster than others.

As a QB you need to solve problems fast (progressions, among other things). This is why wonderlic has historically translated to the NFL for QBs. 20 and less succeeding rarely ever happens. And scoring a 30 shows how fast your brain can solve them, Super Bowl average is 30.7. The evidence is all there. There is a direct correlation with wonderlic and QBs. But only QBs. Do I think there's a difference from 30 and 40? Not really.

Edited April 20, 2020 by BayRaider

[NYRaider]

23 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Wonderlic shows fast your brain can solve problems, it's a timed test. It's not a joke or lie that some peoples brains work faster than others.

As a QB you need to solve problems fast (progressions, among other things). This is why wonderlic has historically translated to the NFL for QBs. 20 and less succeeding rarely ever happens. And scoring a 30 shows how fast your brain can solve them, Super Bowl average is 30.7. The evidence is all there. There is a direct correlation with wonderlic and QBs. But only QBs. Do I think there's a difference from 30 and 40? Not really.

Tua was excellent at getting through his progressions, making quick decisions, and limiting mistakes at Alabama. Kyler Murray scored a 20, DeShaun Watson scored a 20, and Lamar Jackson scored a 13. Doesn't seem to have hurt any of them in the NFL. 

They take the test in Indianapolis right? To me that plays a significant role in all of this. If I was a top prospect getting ready to do the most important workout of my life, I'd be pretty stressed out and not focused on the test at all. Furthermore if I was coming for medical checkups that could and will likely have a major effect on my NFL career I'd be even more stressed. 

[NYRaider]

3 of the last 5 QB's to win MVP scored a 24 or lower. 

[VanS]

Joe Burrow = Alex Smith

I can see Burrow having a similar career.  Solid starter with some ups and downs but never worthy of being the 1st pick in a draft. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by VanS

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

3 of the last 5 QB's to win MVP scored a 24 or lower. 

It's all about the agenda you're trying to push which is why I didn't even continue the conversation. "Don't focus on that which contradicts what I want to be right, focus on this which validates it". All this test does is show the ability to take a test. Some people are great at it, some are not.

Edited April 21, 2020 by JTagg7754

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, VanS said:

Joe Burrow = Alex Smith

I can see Burrow having a similar career.  Solid starter with some ups and downs but never worthy of being the 1st pick in a draft. 

That's not a terrible comparison, I'd personally compare him to Tony Romo. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

That's not a terrible comparison, I'd personally compare him to Tony Romo. 

It's not a good one either.

29 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

That's interesting. It's obviously not infallible, but it is interesting to see that the guys who ranked highly tended to do well.

[Forge]

Favorite pure developmental quarterback in this draft (rounds 4-7)?

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Tua was excellent at getting through his progressions, making quick decisions, and limiting mistakes at Alabama. Kyler Murray scored a 20, DeShaun Watson scored a 20, and Lamar Jackson scored a 13. Doesn't seem to have hurt any of them in the NFL. 

They take the test in Indianapolis right? To me that plays a significant role in all of this. If I was a top prospect getting ready to do the most important workout of my life, I'd be pretty stressed out and not focused on the test at all. Furthermore if I was coming for medical checkups that could and will likely have a major effect on my NFL career I'd be even more stressed. 

I hate when people name a few guys to hoist up an example. My argument is the percentages. The percentages of QBs doing well with a sub 20 wonderlic is horrid and usually doesn’t translate. And the Super Bowl average is 30.7. 
 

Also, Lamar is not a good pure passer at all. I’m very curious to see how he’ll do without Greg Roman in the future, who also made One Read Kaepernick look like a Superstar.