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Official 2020 QB Thread

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On 9/25/2019 at 4:48 PM, Ozzy said:

Yeah all this Jalen Hurts is a top 3 pick talk needs to stop.  The guy has played literally no one this season, and will not play any legit defense till he plays Texas and then again with Iowa State.  Heck Texas has tons of injuries on defense so even that game might not be a good challenge either.  Those two games matter though if Texas can get back healthy, the rest it does not really matter especially in the Big 12 because the defense is just awful.

Put Hurts against Ohio State or Clemson he would look like a different player, he better hope they do not get to the college football playoff.  If he is a top 3 pick that means he is getting picked over Tua or Herbert and believing that is pathetic because there will not be 3 QBs drafted in a row because Chase Young will be in that mix for top 3 or will be #1 overall.

I'm all about squashing the Jalen Hurts as a top 5 pick, but you've got to come up with better logic then this.  Was Baker Mayfield a lesser prospect when he faced UTEP and Tulane as part of his non-conference schedule?  Was Kyler Murray a non-prospect because he played FAU, UCLA, and Army in his non-conference schedule?  No.  It's awful logic even if the premise is right.  He's not a top-5 prospect because he's not a great prospect.  Not because he's played a mediocre non-conference schedule.  Call it lazy, but this is Dak Prescott all over again.  Not the most impressive physical tools, but he's got enough tools to keep you interested.  Not a ton of upside and not a ton of physical projection, but a guy who is going to make good reads and limit turning the ball over.  Would you take Dak Prescott in the top 3?

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7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm all about squashing the Jalen Hurts as a top 5 pick, but you've got to come up with better logic then this.  Was Baker Mayfield a lesser prospect when he faced UTEP and Tulane as part of his non-conference schedule?  Was Kyler Murray a non-prospect because he played FAU, UCLA, and Army in his non-conference schedule?  No.  It's awful logic even if the premise is right.  He's not a top-5 prospect because he's not a great prospect.  Not because he's played a mediocre non-conference schedule.  Call it lazy, but this is Dak Prescott all over again.  Not the most impressive physical tools, but he's got enough tools to keep you interested.  Not a ton of upside and not a ton of physical projection, but a guy who is going to make good reads and limit turning the ball over.  Would you take Dak Prescott in the top 3?

Dak to me had a far better career up to this point compared to Jalen.  Was around much less talent than Jalen has been but was more productive and brought that Miss State team to new heights they have rarely reached since he has left.  Amazing leader, great teammate and played damn good football those past two seasons.  Sure was a runner a lot and that helps in the NFL at times but as a leader that is why he is doing well in the NFL, great leader of the football team and great character.

Jalen might be a great leader as well but is more the quiet type not the inspirational type like Dak was.  Similar prospects?  Maybe but Dak was better in the pocket I feel and has a better throwing motion.

 

I am saying how Jalen looks against these crap defenses does not really say much especially when he is on that OU roster.  Again I will wait till he plays a great defense and see how he performs this year.  Crap logic?  Watch him throw, it is not the same as Kyler or Mayfield.  You do realize Mayfield beat Tennessee on the road as a RS SOPH right early in the year?  Then as a RS JR a ranked Houston team looked decent even in a loss, then a ranked Ohio State team as well, then the next year played Ohio State on the road and beat them as a RS SR.  Yeah pretty impressive competition early season and performance from RS SOPH year on.  Sure Kyler did not have those opportunities but has a rare type of arm talent and that is also shown in his ability to play baseball.  Also if Kingsbury was not the coach at Arizona and needed a QB like Kyler and liked Kyler for his system so much, he probably would have not been the 1st pick overall anyway, 1st round probably but no way 1st overall.  

Will be very interesting how Jalen does as the year goes on, I know tons love his production currently and say he is the clear Heisman favorite which I disagree with.  But honestly a ton of QBs are playing well and Jalen is what 14th overall in passing yards in the nation when people are acting like he is #1 overall and destroying the record books.  Again will wait and see how he looks against a real defense, not Texas Tech.  His completion percentage and rating is super high sure but again in that system apparently anyone and everyone can succeed as long as you have a little ability, kind of like Washington State, Gordon has come out of no where just like Minshew did last year and is leading the nation in passing.  Guess one should not be surprised by that type of thing anymore in systems like that.  

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7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Would you take Dak Prescott in the top 3?

With revisionist history that year, maybe (over Goff, Wentz, and Bosa is tough, and if he really expects $40 million a year, then I wouldn't touch him).  Looking at what I thought of him as an NFL prospect?  Absolutely not.  I thought he was a fringe first rounder, based on what I'd seen, and that was before his DUI.  Being wrong doesn't change how he was as a prospect.  It's the same with Pat Mahomes.  Him blowing up and turning into a monster immediately doesn't change the fact that he was from a gimmicky system that hadn't produced an NFL QB, and had no impressive wins in his history.  He wasn't a god-like prospect that everyone miffed on, he's a guy who fell into the right situation to be way more successful than it looked like he would.  That's why we talk about upside and floors all the time.

Players outperform their evaluations all the time.  It doesn't necessarily mean that they were better prospects than people gave them credit for.

Jalen has some bad looks to make up for, and four games against nobody schools in a QB friendly system is not enough to overcome that.  If we'd never seen him play before, you'd have a point, but not in this situation.  He needs to show that he can play that well against tough defenses before I think he's even a fringe first rounder.

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4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Dak to me had a far better career up to this point compared to Jalen.  Was around much less talent than Jalen has been but was more productive and brought that Miss State team to new heights they have rarely reached since he has left.  Amazing leader, great teammate and played damn good football those past two seasons.  Sure was a runner a lot and that helps in the NFL at times but as a leader that is why he is doing well in the NFL, great leader of the football team and great character.

Jalen might be a great leader as well but is more the quiet type not the inspirational type like Dak was.  Similar prospects?  Maybe but Dak was better in the pocket I feel and has a better throwing motion.

Find me a better comp for Hurts than Dak.  It's not about finding perfect ones.  It's about finding good enough ones.  I think you'd be hard pressed to find a better comp than Dak for Hurts.  If you didn't like Dak, you probably don't like Hurts.

4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

I am saying how Jalen looks against these crap defenses does not really say much especially when he is on that OU roster.  Again I will wait till he plays a great defense and see how he performs this year.  Crap logic?  Watch him throw, it is not the same as Kyler or Mayfield.  You do realize Mayfield beat Tennessee on the road as a RS SOPH right early in the year?  Then as a RS JR a ranked Houston team looked decent even in a loss, then a ranked Ohio State team as well, then the next year played Ohio State on the road and beat them as a RS SR.  Yeah pretty impressive competition early season and performance from RS SOPH year on.  Sure Kyler did not have those opportunities but has a rare type of arm talent and that is also shown in his ability to play baseball.  Also if Kingsbury was not the coach at Arizona and needed a QB like Kyler and liked Kyler for his system so much, he probably would have not been the 1st pick overall anyway, 1st round probably but no way 1st overall.  

Will be very interesting how Jalen does as the year goes on, I know tons love his production currently and say he is the clear Heisman favorite which I disagree with.  But honestly a ton of QBs are playing well and Jalen is what 14th overall in passing yards in the nation when people are acting like he is #1 overall and destroying the record books.  Again will wait and see how he looks against a real defense, not Texas Tech.  His completion percentage and rating is super high sure but again in that system apparently anyone and everyone can succeed as long as you have a little ability, kind of like Washington State, Gordon has come out of no where just like Minshew did last year and is leading the nation in passing.  Guess one should not be surprised by that type of thing anymore in systems like that.  

I mean, I wouldn't say Oklahoma is super flush with talent.  They're rebuilding nearly their entire OL outside of Creed Humphrey (who is a future top 96 pick).  Their receiving corps is CeeDee Lamb (a future FRP) and a couple of 5* freshmen.  The rest of their WR corps isn't anything special, and probably don't have much of a future in the NFL.  As for TE, Grant Calcatarra is a nice H-Back, but that's not going to make him much more than that in the NFL.  Again, you can criticize the player without using circumstances to do so.  And that's my problem.  You're criticizing Hurts for something he legitimately can't control.  These games were scheduled years before Hurts even considered transferring to Oklahoma.  So why should we penalize him?

The issues with Jalen Hurts are clear.  He's doesn't nearly have the arm talent that Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield had.  You see it with the velocity in which he throws it, and you also notice that when he's throwing the ball down the field it doesn't quite have that drive you'd like to see.  That's not to say he can't make all the throws needed, but he's never going to be a QB whose going to threaten you deep.  He's more of a dink and dunker.  Which is fine if that's what your offense calls for, but if you're in an Air Coryell-based offense, he'll likely struggle.  But the notion that somehow because he played some cupcake schedule he's a mediocre prospect is an awful take.  If you want to take a wait and see approach, I'm always game for that.

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4 hours ago, Daniel said:

With revisionist history that year, maybe (over Goff, Wentz, and Bosa is tough, and if he really expects $40 million a year, then I wouldn't touch him).  Looking at what I thought of him as an NFL prospect?  Absolutely not.  I thought he was a fringe first rounder, based on what I'd seen, and that was before his DUI.  Being wrong doesn't change how he was as a prospect.  It's the same with Pat Mahomes.  Him blowing up and turning into a monster immediately doesn't change the fact that he was from a gimmicky system that hadn't produced an NFL QB, and had no impressive wins in his history.  He wasn't a god-like prospect that everyone miffed on, he's a guy who fell into the right situation to be way more successful than it looked like he would.  That's why we talk about upside and floors all the time.

Players outperform their evaluations all the time.  It doesn't necessarily mean that they were better prospects than people gave them credit for.

Jalen has some bad looks to make up for, and four games against nobody schools in a QB friendly system is not enough to overcome that.  If we'd never seen him play before, you'd have a point, but not in this situation.  He needs to show that he can play that well against tough defenses before I think he's even a fringe first rounder.

Based on his career so far?  Absolutely you would.  And that's the upside of what you'd theoretically see in Jalen Hurts.  But you also have to weigh the floor of him as well.  The floor is he's out of the league in a year.  So that being said, you could easily make an argument that he's a FRP but would you go so far as to pick him top 3?  Probably not.  You're scouting skillsets, not production.  Usually there's a correlation between the two, but the skillset comes first.

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Quote

 Not a ton of upside and not a ton of physical projection, but a guy who is going to make good reads and limit turning the ball over.  Would you take Dak Prescott in the top 3?

I agree that Dak is the best comparison for Hurts, but I also think once the combine comes around Hurts is going to show he is a much better athlete than Dak.

Prescott ran a 4.79 40 w/ a 32" vert, I expect Hurts to be closer to 4.55 w/ a 36". Pretty significant, and it shows on the field.

Everyone say Kyler, Baker and Lamar as R2 prospects around this time the year they were drafted. I think Hurts is unquestionably going to be a R1 pick, and would love to add a more athletic Dak to my Broncos. Then again, after the past few seasons I don't feel the privilege of looking for the next elite QB. That's aiming too high. Speedy Dak will do just fine.

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Based on his career so far?  Absolutely you would.  And that's the upside of what you'd theoretically see in Jalen Hurts.  But you also have to weigh the floor of him as well.  The floor is he's out of the league in a year.  So that being said, you could easily make an argument that he's a FRP but would you go so far as to pick him top 3?  Probably not.  You're scouting skillsets, not production.  Usually there's a correlation between the two, but the skillset comes first.

I think you look at production to see part of the skillset. Watch Mariota against the Falcons and you would think he’s a pro bowl QB: he didn’t take sacks, got the ball out quickly, and was really accurate. It’s easy to do everything right when you aren’t facing any adversity. Watch him last week and you’ll wonder how he’s even starting.

Production against tough opponents matters.

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22 hours ago, Daniel said:

I think you look at production to see part of the skillset. Watch Mariota against the Falcons and you would think he’s a pro bowl QB: he didn’t take sacks, got the ball out quickly, and was really accurate. It’s easy to do everything right when you aren’t facing any adversity. Watch him last week and you’ll wonder how he’s even starting.

Production against tough opponents matters.

Except we're not talking about a singular game.  We're talking about the context of his entire season, and to a lesser extent his career.  IF Hurts can continues this high level of production, he's going to push into the first round especially with how well Dak Prescott has played for the Cowboys.  Hurts was a game manager at Alabama, but he's actually looking like the best player on the field for Oklahoma.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Except we're not talking about a singular game.  We're talking about the context of his entire season, and to a lesser extent his career.  IF Hurts can continues this high level of production, he's going to push into the first round especially with how well Dak Prescott has played for the Cowboys.  Hurts was a game manager at Alabama, but he's actually looking like the best player on the field for Oklahoma.

I think we agree there.  If he does continue to play like this all season, then sure.  The notion I'm arguing against is that he's in the conversation to be a top 3 pick right now.  He ain't there.  He might get there, but as you say, it will take a whole season of this.  It will also take Baker looking more like Week 4 Baker than Week 1-3 Baker as well.  If he falls off this season, then it'll drag down Hurts too.

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Haven't been watching college football much, but Trevor Lawrence's stats don't look quite so good this year (by his lofty standards, obviously). What's going on? Nothing to worry about, right?

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50 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

Haven't been watching college football much, but Trevor Lawrence's stats don't look quite so good this year (by his lofty standards, obviously). What's going on? Nothing to worry about, right?

Too many other people bought into his hype and he's showing to be mortal. 

As for worries, unless you were expecting Madden-like stats and teams to start Losing for Lawrence 2 years in advance, no, none to be had. 

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2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

Haven't been watching college football much, but Trevor Lawrence's stats don't look quite so good this year (by his lofty standards, obviously). What's going on? Nothing to worry about, right?

He is 34th in passing yards in the nation, 73th in completion percentage, 39th in yards per attempt, 55th in passing TDs, 19th in INTs, and has a 143 rating and Tua has a 225 rating for example.  How has he played this poorly despite having better WRs to throw to than last year?  

Well honestly his OL is a problem, tackles are not good and is getting hit more it seems.  The INTs seem to be a concern also but he did well against A&M and Syracuse.  UNC game was odd but Surratt killed them and he got tons of QB pressures and deflected passes.  I remember people ripping Watson a lot on Clemson his last season there and clearly that was a non issue and he is just fine in the NFL.  Lawrence sucks now?  No not really, but yeah the expectations are gigantic for him, to win every game by 30 to 40 points especially in the weaker ACC.  Will be interesting how he handles it as the year goes on and even next year.  In terms of himself of course having the high expectations and being National Champions, every team they ever play it is their Super Bowl really, outside of if they play Alabama.  

Also hurts that the D is not the same as last year, Simmons has been great but clearly the DL is not the same and the leaders on the team are not the same, Wilkins was an amazing leader for that team and that entire DL was.  Without them around and the offense getting less chances because the D is on the field more.  Was surprised how Terrell got beat against UNC and the other corner is nothing amazing, Muse has been ok at times but other times not so much that is why I think Simmons still plays a little safety for them to cover up for Muse in the back end.  

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On 10/3/2019 at 10:00 AM, Jtownsfine5t said:

I've been seeing some reports about Jordan Love being a 1st rd QB? Is he that good?

He had 3 ints and looked awful today. On otherhand is Joe Burrows a NFL QB? He had 5 TDs today.

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1 hour ago, Classic said:

He had 3 ints and looked awful today. On otherhand is Joe Burrows a NFL QB? He had 5 TDs today.

I think that Love had the best 3 INT day you could see.  He played much better than the stats say.  

While Burrows didn't play near as well as the stats said.  

I consider both 2nd rounders right now.

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