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Official 2020 QB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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30 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

You consider almost 1/3 of the starting QBs in the league to have "elite" arms? 

A top 33.3% isn't an elite percentile by any metric.

There aren't just 32 QBs in the NFL.  There are around 64 on active rosters.  And then when you take into account the teams that carry a 3rd QB on the active roster or practice squad you're looking at over 90 total QBs getting NFL checks every week.

So yes, I do think having a top 10 arm out of the pool of nearly 100 other coworkers is "elite".  That's being in the top 10%.  Which is elite in my book.

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5 hours ago, Xenos said:

The argument was that he did not have an elite arm, which he doesn't. He has a good arm that is bolster by excellent anticipation and touch. The video pretty much shows it. It's not about distance but about the velocity of the throws. Rivers pretty much does the same thing. If you want to see actual cannons look at guys like Josh Allen (who has problems hitting anything), Stafford, Wentz etc.

it doesn't take anything away from Brady. Just that you can be a great QB without a cannon.

I think this is where disagreement about "arm talent" happens.  It's about a lot more than just having a "cannon" for an arm.  Having good velocity is absolutely important, but equally important to be able to control it.  There are so many more factors that go into "arm talent" than just..."throws real hard" with a "cannon".

That clean, quick, natural and consistently repeatable motion is important.  The way the ball comes out, and how quickly they can trigger.  Ability to still get the ball out clean off platform and when disrupted or pressured are important factors too.  The list can go on and on.  There are different types of "elite arms".  Top-end velocity when it's needed is a common theme among all of them...but it's a lot more nuanced than just throwing the ball hard.  Guys who can wing it a million miles an hour after a 15 minute windup...that's not an elite arm to me.  On the other end of things...guys like Brady has evolved into in his prime, may not have had Jamarcus level velocity...but it was way up there and had other elite attributes like the quickness and clean consistent delivery.

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9 hours ago, VanS said:

There aren't just 32 QBs in the NFL.  There are around 64 on active rosters.  And then when you take into account the teams that carry a 3rd QB on the active roster or practice squad you're looking at over 90 total QBs getting NFL checks every week.

So yes, I do think having a top 10 arm out of the pool of nearly 100 other coworkers is "elite".  That's being in the top 10%.  Which is elite in my book.

Wilson

Murray

Mahomes

Carr

Lock

Rodgers

Stafford

Allen

Mayfield

Brees

Ryan 

Newton

All literally have more pure arm talent than Brady, and that's only counting 1 backup and that isn't even a complete list. Your argument actually holds more water by narrowing it down only to 32 starting QBs. No way Brady has a top 10/100 among all Quarterbacks across all rosters and practice squads. Thanks for proving my point. 

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42 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Wilson

Murray

Mahomes

Carr

Lock

Rodgers

Stafford

Allen

Mayfield

Brees

Ryan 

Newton

All literally have more pure arm talent than Brady, and that's only counting 1 backup and that isn't even a complete list. Your argument actually holds more water by narrowing it down only to 32 starting QBs. No way Brady has a top 10/100 among all Quarterbacks across all rosters and practice squads. Thanks for proving my point. 

FTR, I wasn't arguing Brady had a top 10 arm THIS YEAR.  I said over the course of his career his arm was elite and top 10 more times than not.

With that said, your list is laughable for including Brees.  He's got one of the weaker arms for a starting QB.  Also I wouldn't rate Carr or Ryan in the top 10.  Deshaun Watson has a stronger arm than all 3 of them. 

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7 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I think this is where disagreement about "arm talent" happens.  It's about a lot more than just having a "cannon" for an arm.  Having good velocity is absolutely important, but equally important to be able to control it.  There are so many more factors that go into "arm talent" than just..."throws real hard" with a "cannon".

That clean, quick, natural and consistently repeatable motion is important.  The way the ball comes out, and how quickly they can trigger.  Ability to still get the ball out clean off platform and when disrupted or pressured are important factors too.  The list can go on and on.  There are different types of "elite arms".  Top-end velocity when it's needed is a common theme among all of them...but it's a lot more nuanced than just throwing the ball hard.  Guys who can wing it a million miles an hour after a 15 minute windup...that's not an elite arm to me.  On the other end of things...guys like Brady has evolved into in his prime, may not have had Jamarcus level velocity...but it was way up there and had other elite attributes like the quickness and clean consistent delivery.

I guess it does depend on what VanS' definition of "elite" arm strength is then. I'm more traditional in my thinking of arm strength. Certain things that you mentioned like throwing off platform or pressured is true for me as well. Prime Rodgers and now Mahomes fit that definition perfectly.

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13 minutes ago, VanS said:

FTR, I wasn't arguing Brady had a top 10 arm THIS YEAR.  I said over the course of his career his arm was elite and top 10 more times than not.

With that said, your list is laughable for including Brees.  He's got one of the weaker arms for a starting QB.  Also I wouldn't rate Carr or Ryan in the top 10.  Deshaun Watson has a stronger arm than all 3 of them. 

Deshaun Watson probably does have a stronger arm than Ryan. But not over Carr. Despite him being Mr Checkdown a lot, he still has an impressive arm.

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21 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Deshaun Watson probably does have a stronger arm than Ryan. But not over Carr. Despite him being Mr Checkdown a lot, he still has an impressive arm.

I just don't like how Carr tries to loft everything.  He rarely just drives the ball.  He's always trying to throw with touch.

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36 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Deshaun Watson probably does have a stronger arm than Ryan. But not over Carr. Despite him being Mr Checkdown a lot, he still has an impressive arm.

 

51 minutes ago, VanS said:

With that said, your list is laughable for including Brees.  He's got one of the weaker arms for a starting QB.  Also I wouldn't rate Carr or Ryan in the top 10.  Deshaun Watson has a stronger arm than all 3 of them. 

Heyo, Texans fan here. Deshaun Watson has a good enough arm. It's his anticipation and ability to read a defense (i.e. throw where defenders AREN'T) that makes the deep game work so well, though. Watching him week in and week out, his arm strength is definitely better than it was two years ago, or even last year, but he doesn't have a cannon or anything. I'd say Carr and Ryan both have bigger arms than Watson. I'd rate Watson with Garropolo, Darnold and Mayfield (whose arm strength gets overblown, also more of an anticipation thrower). Ahead of guys like Mariota, Alex Smith, and Dalton, but not into the top-tier or maybe even second tier.

Again, his arm isn't bad and isn't a liability by any means, and this year he's throwing with better velocity than in years past, but he doesn't have a stronger arm than Jared Goff or Lamar Jackson.

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1 hour ago, Killashaw said:

This class is REALLY interesting. How many/which teams really need a new starting QB next year?

Tier-1: These are the teams that need a QB TODAY, and have NO succession plan or QBs who could argue for a starting job. Okay, so the Dolphins need a QB for sure. The Buccaneers are, without a shadow of a doubt, getting a new QB this off-season.

Tier-2: These are the teams that probably do NOT have their franchise QB, or a QB that they're comfortable with as the long-term plan. Cincinnati might move on, which we've been talking about for years it feels like. If Jacoby Brissett falters, you can bet the Colts will make a play for a QB, whether it's someone this draft class or TLaw/Fields in 2021. The Titans benched Marcus Mariota. He was really, genuinely good over the course of his first-two seasons, but he looked like a different QB after a season ending injury at the end of the 2016 season. Since then, he's had flashes, like at points during last season, but in between, he had a nerve injury and an elbow injury on his throwing arm, at one point saying that he had lost all feeling in his throwing hand. On top of this, he has developed a fear of hits, causing him to lose significant field-vision in the red zone, especially, where he used to thrive. 

Tier-3: Faces of the Future. Ben might be done, and Rudolph/Hodges might stink it up for the rest of the year, which would add the Steelers to the mix. And then, of course, there's the ever-present questions of succession for several teams. The Chargers and Patriots are omnipresent on this list. The Saints may not have faith in Teddy B long-term, because it would be unrealistic to expect to win every week in the future solely based off of your defense. You can do well, but you'll almost NEVER have sustained success with just an OK QB. I think it's safe to say that Aaron Rodgers is at the point of his career where the Packers need to start planning for the future. Not saying that he'll retire this year or next, but he's aging and could decide to walk away in a couple seasons.

 

I THINK that's it for now. I guess MAYBE the Raiders if Carr has some big-time struggles over the second-half of the season.

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2 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

Tier-1: These are the teams that need a QB TODAY, and have NO succession plan or QBs who could argue for a starting job. Okay, so the Dolphins need a QB for sure. The Buccaneers are, without a shadow of a doubt, getting a new QB this off-season.

Tier-2: These are the teams that probably do NOT have their franchise QB, or a QB that they're comfortable with as the long-term plan. Cincinnati might move on, which we've been talking about for years it feels like. If Jacoby Brissett falters, you can bet the Colts will make a play for a QB, whether it's someone this draft class or TLaw/Fields in 2021. The Titans benched Marcus Mariota. He was really, genuinely good over the course of his first-two seasons, but he looked like a different QB after a season ending injury at the end of the 2016 season. Since then, he's had flashes, like at points during last season, but in between, he had a nerve injury and an elbow injury on his throwing arm, at one point saying that he had lost all feeling in his throwing hand. On top of this, he has developed a fear of hits, causing him to lose significant field-vision in the red zone, especially, where he used to thrive. 

Tier-3: Faces of the Future. Ben might be done, and Rudolph/Hodges might stink it up for the rest of the year, which would add the Steelers to the mix. And then, of course, there's the ever-present questions of succession for several teams. The Chargers and Patriots are omnipresent on this list. The Saints may not have faith in Teddy B long-term, because it would be unrealistic to expect to win every week in the future solely based off of your defense. You can do well, but you'll almost NEVER have sustained success with just an OK QB. I think it's safe to say that Aaron Rodgers is at the point of his career where the Packers need to start planning for the future. Not saying that he'll retire this year or next, but he's aging and could decide to walk away in a couple seasons.

 

I THINK that's it for now. I guess MAYBE the Raiders if Carr has some big-time struggles over the second-half of the season.

if the bucs are in tier 1, i'd put the titans there too. barring some absolute heroics from ryan tannehill (lol) they'll definitely be in the market.

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7 hours ago, Danger said:

Montez is capable of making the throws.... he just almost never does.

I've honestly never seen worse footwork in a clean pocket than from Montez. Literally can be clean pocket and he'll refuse to step into a throw. From an upside perspective, I see why a team could be interested in the mid-rounds, but by god, they have their work cut out for them.

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9 hours ago, VanS said:

FTR, I wasn't arguing Brady had a top 10 arm THIS YEAR.  I said over the course of his career his arm was elite and top 10 more times than not.

With that said, your list is laughable for including Brees.  He's got one of the weaker arms for a starting QB.  Also I wouldn't rate Carr or Ryan in the top 10.  Deshaun Watson has a stronger arm than all 3 of them. 

FTR, "that isn't even a complete list". 

And still, no, Brady has never had "elite" arm strength at any given time in his career. 

You're talking several hundred different quarterbacks who didn't see the field (Cardale Jones), busts (Jamarcus Russell), and guys with Howitzers attached to their shoulder who made solid if not spectacular careers (Rodgers, Stafford, etc.). 

Give me a single year and I can show you a list longer than 10 who had stronger arms than Tom Brady, and probably do so without listing any quarterback for more than 1 season. 

The fact that you say Carr and Ryan aren't top 10 in terms of arm strength but Brady is is just downright laughable. Carr, in particular, might possess one of the top 10 all-time in terms of being able to fling the rock. Dude has a GS-777 attached to his right shoulder.

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