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Bold prediction: Chargers AFC Super Bowl LIV representative

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Buckweath said:

Here we go again.

 

Have you checked the NFL odds? The Chiefs are rightly heavy favorites to win the AFC West and pretty much co favorite with the Pats to win the AFC. Anyone who thinks the Chargers are neck and neck with the Chiefs to win the West should put a huge bet on them. They're not.

Of course the Chargers have a pretty good team and do have a chance to win the West but winning the AFC certainly fits the bill of a bold prediction. I mean they are probably a top 5 team in the AFC but a few teams look equal or better right now.

Odds are just how betters are placing their early money, it means nothing. Most experts have Chargers clearly winning the west. Chargers are clearly better than the Chiefs.. i cant even see a logical argument otherwise. Please Chargers are QUICKLY closing those odds. By the season start, they will likely over take KC as odds on favs. Chargers are just flat out better.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/chargers-gaining-ground-chiefs-afc-west-odds-minicamps-open/

 

Right now, just because of pedigree only team in the league who can really be placed over the Chargers is NE. That is more so due to pedigree. 

Chargers were 12-4 last year with a number of big injuries, they only got better this year by proxy of health and some potentially key rookie contributors. They didnt lose much.

They were the most balanced team last year and most talented. I dont expect that to change. With the NFL nothing is a lock and Chargers can end up garbage like any team. But based on whats on paper and last years production... there isnt really much of an argument someone can make for any team in the league over them. If there is, id love to hear it.  But keep your hope alive.... it's amusing. 

Edited by Bearerofnews

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7 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Odds are just how betters are placing their early money, it means nothing. Most experts have Chargers clearly winning the west. Chargers are clearly better than the Chiefs.. i cant even see a logical argument otherwise.

Right now, just because of pedigree only team in the league who can really be placed over the Chargers is NE. That is more so due to pedigree. 

Chargers were 12-4 last year with a number of big injuries, they only got better this year by proxy of health and some potentially key rookie contributors. They didnt lose much.

They were the most balanced team last year and most talented. I dont expect that to change. With the NFL nothing is a lock and Chargers can end up garbage like any team. But based on whats on paper and last years production... there isnt really much of an argument someone can make for any team in the league over them. If there is, id love to hear it.  But keep your hope alive.... it's amusing. 

I can only laugh at a Chargers fan who really think his team is superior to the Chiefs. You might as well enjoy the offseason because once the season rolls around you are very likely to be 2nd best. The Chargers are a pretty good team but the Chiefs will be a juggernaut this season. 

I'm not going to get into how the Chiefs are better. I know better, having exchanged with you before on the topic.

But just so you know, the professionals who determine the Vegas odds are better at predicting the outcome of a game, season, etc. than the vast majority of random fans like you and I and better than the vast majority of media analysts.

That's not to say they are always right, far from it, but if you think you could go head to head against them and predict future games better than they do, I guess you just don't know much about sports betting.

We can still discuss and disagree with those odds and that's all fun but if someone thinks those odds are clueless, well that someone is probably the one who is clueless.

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Buckweath said:

I can only laugh at a Chargers fan who really think his team is superior to the Chiefs. You might as well enjoy the offseason because once the season rolls around you are very likely to be 2nd best. The Chargers are a pretty good team but the Chiefs will be a juggernaut this season. 

I'm not going to get into how the Chiefs are better. I know better, having exchanged with you before on the topic.

But just so you know, the professionals who determine the Vegas odds are better at predicting the outcome of a game, season, etc. than the vast majority of random fans like you and I and better than the vast majority of media analysts.

That's not to say they are always right, far from it, but if you think you could go head to head against them and predict future games better than they do, I guess you just don't know much about sports betting.

We can still discuss and disagree with those odds and that's all fun but if someone thinks those odds are clueless, well that someone is probably the one who is clueless.

 

 

 

 

Like i said, as of June... Chargers are QUICKLY closing out those odds and by season start, look for Chargers to be the majority of all the expert's picks (like they currently are) and vegas' pick.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/chargers-gaining-ground-chiefs-afc-west-odds-minicamps-open/

Im trying to be as grounded as possible and reasonable. But i honestly dont think its even gonna be close once the season starts and it hits Thanksgiving. I've been wrong aloooot, so i might be again. But everything from a logical perspective, even when i put away the homer goggles says i wont be wrong. But we'll see.

Edited by Bearerofnews

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I will say, 2020... i can see Chiefs being very good. I think 2019, they take a considerable dip. 

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45 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

No, but they have a great one. HOF Rivers. Who has a better passer rating in the playoffs than more then 2 handful of SB qbs.

Postseason
Record: 5-6
Pass ypg: 241
Comp pct: 59%
QBR: 84%
TD/INT: 14/10

Yeah, that's some HOF stuff right there for a 15 year vet.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Postseason
Record: 5-6
Pass ypg: 241
Comp pct: 59%
QBR: 84%
TD/INT: 14/10

Yeah, that's some HOF stuff right there for a 15 year vet.

The record is result of team play. 7 of 11 post season games Rivers has played were on the road. Half the Chargers losses of the 6 are vs NE.  In 2 of his 6 losses, which were 3 point losses each, his kicker missed 4 FGs.

I look at his performance and the best most tangible indicator of a QBs performance is passer rating and his is better than or as good as atleast 11 qbs who have made the SB. It is slightly lessor than a number of other qbs who made the SB and are HOFers.

 

So yes, HOF. When you actually look at context and not "hE Is 5-6 hE Is a cHokEr".

Edited by Bearerofnews

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I mean Steve Young alone was 8-6 in the playoffs in games where he had atleast more than 5 attempts with a 85.8 passer rating. Context matters..

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Posted (edited)

Warren Moon is 3-7 in the playoffs with a passer rating of 84.9. "bUt hE hAd a hIsTorIcAl iMpAcT oN tHe lEaGuE". Context matters.

Edited by Bearerofnews

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11 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

and the best most tangible indicator of a QBs performance is passer rating

Image result for charlie murphy gif

 

OP: This is definitely a bold prediction and I commend you for it.

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Let's not make this about fans.

Tks.

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13 hours ago, Buckweath said:

Here we go again.

 

Have you checked the NFL odds? The Chiefs are rightly heavy favorites to win the AFC West and pretty much co favorite with the Pats to win the AFC. Anyone who thinks the Chargers are neck and neck with the Chiefs to win the West should put a huge bet on them. They're not.

Of course the Chargers have a pretty good team and do have a chance to win the West but winning the AFC certainly fits the bill of a bold prediction. I mean they are probably a top 5 team in the AFC but a few teams look equal or better right now.

You realize that Vegas odds are like a horrific predictor of anything right? Look at some of the preseason odds of previous years and see how laughable some of them are. Obviously there are always going to be teams that surprise in both ways, but Vegas odds are made based on how oddsmakers think the public will bet. The general public is not necessarily the smartest when it comes to making predictions.

 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

They have a good postseason QB on the roster now?

Sorry I wasn't aware Rivers gave up 35 points on 5 straight TD drives to the Pats offense to start the game.

People act as if Rivers is Andy Dalton who flat out tanks in postseason games. Narratives are always a certain way until they aren't. 

Edited by Bolts223

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