Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
WindyCity

Pre Snap Reads: Trubisky analysis

Recommended Posts

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubisky-has-no-middle-ground/

 

I actually think this is the analysis that hits the Trubisky analysis on the head.

 

Synopsis:

 

His good moments are great/special

 

His bad moments are brutal

 

There was little in between last season

 

In 2019 he will either be bad or one of the elite QBs in the league depending on which way it breaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get linked back to this thread with that link.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another thread where Windy dumps on Trubisky. With no real evidence to back it up. 

It's becoming old. I mean--really old. 

Please...explain to us, in detail, how Trubisky has NO "middle ground".

But, that won't happen, will it? You'll flitter around, without ever actually claiming, or predicting, anything. Whatever. You hate Trubisky. Make substantive threads, or let the claim drop. It's becoming annoying. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

In 2019 he will either be bad or one of the elite QBs in the league depending on which way it breaks.

I would posit that a QB that’s both really good and really bad would be a medium QB- like many QBs in the league. To say he’s going to be bad is 1) suggesting that Mitch is going to regress 2) a disservice to those QBs who actually are bad. 

Cutler was good / bad, and ultimately a middle-of-the-pack QB. Rex was good / bad, and ultimately a below-average QB who led a team to the Super Bowl. Your post makes it sound as if Mitch is worse than those two. 

Im not sure what the straw was that broke your back, Windy, with regards to Mitch. This irrationality is unlike you. 

Edited by yomyyo
phone typing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is almost as bad as the Shaheen thread.  These guys are still growing as players so WTF do you expect.  You want these guys crapping orange frosted cupcakes and pissing navy Kool-Aid?

Nagy, Helfrich, and Ragone have all been raving about how much more off the offense he's digested and how he's now teaching it to others.

Mitch was basically a rookie QB last season.  Whatever experience he got under Fox was more like playing preseason football.  Let's at least get through one more season before we judge either Mitch or Shaheen on past performance. 

Some games last season Aaron Rodgers looked like crap too.  Especially in the second game against.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the link, IDK why the original wasn't working.

 

https://presnapreads.com/mitchell-trubisky-has-no-middle-ground/

 

I think the article is laughable at some points, has some decent points as well though. He has clearly studied film, but I question if he ever played college (or above) and to me never has had to deal with a major staff change or huge player turnover. That or with it being so difficult to quantify he blatantly ignored it.

 

Quote

Individually, he dropped from fifth in depth-adjusted accuracy at 59.8 percent to 30th at 51.4 percent. That despite regularly throwing to receivers who had been schemed into wide open space.

Tru was a dump off maestro his rookie year, as no one respected the deep ball and we had no one to threaten deep. He was inaccurate on deep passes this year, and threw a LOT more deep throws. Not exactly shocking to see his accuracy numbers drop. While there was a good deal of scheming, Nagy also outsmarted himself in some games, like calling for so many deep routes vs the LAR. Seriously, this makes it sound like he was running a 7on7 drill.

 

Quote

His interceptable pass rate was 3.6 percent in 2017, seventh in the league. It dropped to 4.8 percent in 2018, 27th in the league.

So you're saying passes that go 15 yards have more of a chance to get intercepted than screens and crossing routes?!?! Shocking!

 

Says there are many guys schemed open, then shows numerous throws where Tru had to make a perfect throw into small buckets and often timing it before a safety can come down for a big hit, rather than scheming plays open.

 

They use field vision and one play where there are only two guys running routes. Robinson on a deep cross and Gabriel on a vertical. Tru makes a bad decision to throw. But that is part of three things - one is that he should have just thrown it away, but was processing way more info than he could really handle, tho is that it was the AZ game where we were down 14-0 early so he was trying to carry a horrid offense to score, and three is that Nagy called a horrible play - Howard was getting stuffed repeatedly then they only give him 2 receivers? I think Tru from week 8 on sees the coverage nd just throws it out of bounds rather than forcing it. That was a play of inexperience - for Tru AND Nagy,

 

Missing Burton and trying to force - and underthrowing Robinson - I agree with. Though Peterson is the one on Robinson, while I like him he isn't going to stay ahead of Robinson on a fly. The only way you throw deep on a fly between those two is a double move Peterson might bite on or you know Robinson is going to have to box out, like a backshoulder throw. Again I think this is just Tru trying to claw back and do too much, rather than take the easy 10 yards he goes for the 40 yarder.


The next one Tru definitely missed, but by is Cohen even running that route? It is a horrendous play design. RPO, have the QB run right, and then have someone run from the right side of the formation to the left corner? If anything like that is to happen, the player should be a decoy and not a serious receiver on this play. He missed Burton, but seeing as how he was so focused on Cohen that tells me he was a primary option. And that is terrible. Even as a young QB Tru should know that is a poor route to choose, even if it wouldn't have had a safety over the top. That play needs revised or scapped altogether.

 

The first Eagles play is a terrible throw, Shaheen was there for the dump off, no argument there. But it was also a terrible playcall. You have two deep inward routes (seems a post and deep in) going TOWARD each other. Literally crowding the endzone so there are more defenders near the ball regardless of who is the intended receiver. At the end of the play the two receivers are literally 2 yards from each other. This is where there should be some sort of levels concept like NE, NO, and KC have really done a masterful job of. Routes rarely converge, even if they are in the same direction they are at 6-10 yard depth differences, and that keeps congestion of defenders to a minimum while allowing the QB to see "the whole scene" in front of him. If Miller flattens hsi route at 15 yards, that allows a MUCH better look for Tru to see and opens the field exponentially for him to make an open throw. Regardless, it was a horrible decision to make the throw, Shaheen was wide open. Sowell could have gotten 10 yards   lol

 

Bad choice on the curl route by Robinson, agreed. But the CB was 8 yards off at the LOS, why isn't that being audibled to a slant or something that is a higher percentage throw (being that far off a curl is one of the easiest plays to make, you sit and break on the ball, and can keep your eyes on the QB pretty easily)? We saw so many deep outs and curls. 1/4 of his routes were curls or comebacks. Easy to scout that, especially since this was the postseason. Schwartz knew the most common routes by the players, I'd have been happy to see a double move or something to be a "stat-buster" kind of play. Also for being able to scheme open players, I didn't see anyone open there.

 

The overthrow to Miller was bad, but I thought there was a miscommunication on the over throw to Burton in BUF. Maybe I'm mistaken? I thought Tru believed it was a post-corner but Burton sat in the zone, rather than just sailing the ball. Not sure but that was what I thought. The LAR was putrid playcalling all around, Nagy was overaggressive when Tru clearly was not throwing well. He should have taken the Braunecker dump off though. From Tru's release to the receiver the play is a 20 yard out route and the receiver is already outside the numbers before Tru finishes the drop back. That is a hella low percentage throw. Yes he has the arm to do it, but even guys like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes will miss those. The first three are historically accurate and Mahomes has a damn howitzer for an arm. Shaheeen is being held there too, like Mack vs GB held. So the play shouldn't have even stood - but that isn't the matter at hand. The NE throw I am pretty comfortable with. Throwing over their head while no safety over the top? Fine. That means either your guy gets it or no one does. I can live with that, as deep throws like that are lower percentage attempts anyway, I'll take making them low risk. The underthrows bother me more, or the overthrows with safty help over the top. That play I couldn't care much less about.

 

Quote

If Trubisky never develops or regresses from the point he was at during the second season of his career, the Bears will have a very difficult time determining whether they should pay him or not. You can reasonably expect to win a Super Bowl with him, but you’re relying on him getting hot at the right time.

I disagree. Last year was a significant step forward, but if he doesn't improve over the next 2-3 years how the hell do you wrap $100+mil in a guy? Throwing 27 TDs and 11 TDs is good, but being under 3700 yards makes it really hard to throw that much cash out right now (,---- extrapolated from 14 to 16 games). For having a major contract you want a guy who can carry a team, and if he can't do it better in year 3 and 4 of a system than he did year one with all new weapons to develop chemistry with, then uh oh.

If he doesn't develop you are looking at him AND Nagy to see what the issue is, because that is inexcusable. If he doesn't improve, you go after another young QB if you can keep the defense together and playing at a really high level. Of course winning a Super Bowl or deep runs can alter points, but if we are taking one game and dones then Nagy is on the hot seat too.

Quote


Nagy needs to get better with his game management and play calling. Trubisky needs to get better with his decision making and his accuracy.

Even without their first round picks, the Bears have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NFL.

 

Agree on all counts.

 

Quote

If Trubisky is a bad quarterback, they’re talented enough to sneak into the wildcard round again. If Trubisky is average, they could get a first-round bye. If Trubisky is good, they become a legitimate contender. If Trubisky is great, they are immediately amongst the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Health would be their main obstacle in that scenario.

Again no argument, but I think with the talent if Tru is "good" they have the chance to compete in the Super Bowl and be favorites if healthy.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've done my own hand wringing about Trubisky and think he's going to improve. I don't think we've got Aaron Rodgers or anything, but I think this year he's going to clean up the very bad stuff, and get smarter on the field.  Very likely he's going to hover around top 10 QB and that should be enough to have the Bears talking Super Bowl in 2019 and 2020 if healthy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How good does he have to be to be better than what we've had for two decades?

At least he has the OL and WRs/TE Cutler never had.

Like Shaheen and others I'll wait 'til January before I evaluate him again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Another thread where Windy dumps on Trubisky. With no real evidence to back it up. 

It's becoming old. I mean--really old. 

Please...explain to us, in detail, how Trubisky has NO "middle ground".

But, that won't happen, will it? You'll flitter around, without ever actually claiming, or predicting, anything. Whatever. You hate Trubisky. Make substantive threads, or let the claim drop. It's becoming annoying. 

It is a detailed article by someone who does QB evaluations at a high level. What I posted was the synopsis of his key points.

 

So before you go full homer and continue to tear up perhaps look at the detailed breakdown that he does, which is also full of evidence and play breakdowns. I am not claiming that he has not middle ground, that is in fact the exact title of the article.

I will flitter around? It is probably difficult to flitter around when you are running around with your white knight homer shield jumping in front of any criticism that is directed at this team like it is a bullet headed for the President.

I do not hate Trubisky, I think PFF is incredibly unfair to him. I think this article is much more realistic in the "bad was really bad and the good was great" analysis. I think that is the most accurate take of him from a major media member. I do not want to adopt him or give him my kidney like some people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, yomyyo said:

I would posit that a QB that’s both really good and really bad would be a medium QB- like many QBs in the league. To say he’s going to be bad is 1) suggesting that Mitch is going to regress 2) a disservice to those QBs who actually are bad. 

Cutler was good / bad, and ultimately a middle-of-the-pack QB. Rex was good / bad, and ultimately a below-average QB who led a team to the Super Bowl. Your post makes it sound as if Mitch is worse than those two. 

Im not sure what the straw was that broke your back, Windy, with regards to Mitch. This irrationality is unlike you. 

READ THE ARTICLE

 

syn·op·sis
/səˈnäpsəs/
noun
 
  1. a brief summary or general survey of something.
    "a synopsis of the accident"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys havent been listening to his coaches this spring. 

They already said he couldn't do complex pre and post snap reads last year until near end of season.  Which is proper learning curve. He had to learn a ton of stuff in a short time. 

He is way better this year already.  Its all they talk about.  Is he perfect yet? No. But light years ahead of last year at this time.  

Doing a deep analysis of anything like this prior to this season is a complete waste of time.  

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, soulman said:

This is almost as bad as the Shaheen thread.  These guys are still growing as players so WTF do you expect.  You want these guys crapping orange frosted cupcakes and pissing navy Kool-Aid?

Nagy, Helfrich, and Ragone have all been raving about how much more off the offense he's digested and how he's now teaching it to others.

Mitch was basically a rookie QB last season.  Whatever experience he got under Fox was more like playing preseason football.  Let's at least get through one more season before we judge either Mitch or Shaheen on past performance. 

Some games last season Aaron Rodgers looked like crap too.  Especially in the second game against.

That is the entire point of the article.

When he is bad, it is bad, but on the other hand when he is good he is elite. Elite arm strength and making throws that only a handful of other QBs can make.

The inconsistency that Fahey point to is the problem, drive-drive, quarter-quarter, game-game.

 

Personally, I think Mitch is going to take a big step this season. I think if he simply cuts the `what the hell`` plays down, which should come with experience and reps, then the bottom comes up and the top has always been high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

You guys havent been listening to his coaches this spring. 

They already said he couldn't do complex pre and post snap reads last year until near end of season.  Which is proper learning curve. He had to learn a ton of stuff in a short time. 

He is way better this year already.  Its all they talk about.  Is he perfect yet? No. But light years ahead of last year at this time.  

Doing a deep analysis of anything like this prior to this season is a complete waste of time.  

 

 

 

 

Agreed, the easiest thing to do is to cut the really bad plays down. That can come with coaching and experience.

As the article states, the top end of Mitch is elite, something that I think the PFF analysis misses and this analysis hits.

 

There are a couple of plays that are highlighted in the article that show this. This is also one of the few analysts who is steadfast in Trubisky has elite arm talent, which has not been a common position.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Another thread where Windy dumps on Trubisky. With no real evidence to back it up. 

It's becoming old. I mean--really old. 

Please...explain to us, in detail, how Trubisky has NO "middle ground".

But, that won't happen, will it? You'll flitter around, without ever actually claiming, or predicting, anything. Whatever. You hate Trubisky. Make substantive threads, or let the claim drop. It's becoming annoying. 

Thats a bit unfair my dude. I dont get impression that Windy hates MT. 

Windy provides a lot of substantive points on the forum. As much or more than anyone.

Nobody has to agree with all of them. I often disagree. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  



×