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Who will have a better season? Mitchell Trubiski or Baker Mayfield


mdonnelly21

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76 members have voted

  1. 1. Who would you take this upcoming NFL Season?

    • Mitchell Trubiski
      5
    • Baker Mayfield
      72


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6 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

I think Baker has 4800 yds 37 tds and 14 ints around 66% comp and 102 passer rating 

I think Mitch has 4640 yds 35 tds 10 ints 68% comp and around 103 passer rating 

Mayfield will need to improve his yards per start by 29 to get there, Trubisky by 60 per start.

Mayfield will need to increase his TDs by .25 per start, Trubisky by .5.

Mayfield will need to decrease his interceptions by .075 per game, Trubisky by .85.

Trubisky certainly has to make the bigger jump to match your predictions.

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26 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Trubisky certainly has to make the bigger jump to match your predictions.

By a much bigger margin if you take into account that Mitch massively padded his stats against the Buccaneers who legit weren't even playing football that day.

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1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

I'm not saying you are wrong but why was Trubisky sacked twice as often (10-5 over each of their final 8 games) once Freddie took over game calling?  If not offensive line or coaching, who gets credit? All Mayfield?

Kyle Long missed the last half of the season and the Browns traded away arguably their best lineman. Kitchens also has a lot more responsibility now and no one really knows if he's cut out for it.

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1 minute ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Kyle Long missed the last half of the season and the Browns traded away arguably their best lineman. Kitchens also has a lot more responsibility now and no one really knows if he's cut out for it.

Yeah we've all heard Freddie talk and we're hoping Freddie doesn't punt on 2nd down and stuff like that. Honestly I'm fully confident in Freddie, he has the perfect personality for the job and has been in the business forever. He is anti-Hue Jackson (willing to change things up, be honest etc...) so if Hue is the worst the opposite has to be better.

Zeitler is a good guard, I don't know if he is better than Bitonio but yeah we likely downgraded there. Mayfield was sacked 19 times in his first 5 starts with Zeitler playing. Once Freddie took over the offense he was sacked 5 times in 8 starts, I think that drastic of a difference has everything to do with playcalling.

Some of the playcalling was done by players. Landry's bomb to Perriman was drawn up by Landry. That kind of stuff vests even more interest to the players succeeding because they want their plays to succeed. May not get to do it in meaningful games like the playoffs but imo that is good coaching and understanding players. I have no doubt OBJ and Landry will both be tossing passes this season. Mayfield will play receiver on a play or two. Someone's play will fail and look ridiculous and get scrapped. Players should have some fun out there and that should lead to high energy which should lead to offensive success. Browns fans are excited for a reason, not just because of odds or hype either. Something special has been built and as long as Mayfield stays the course and remains healthy the offense will do their job. We may give up 6 yards per carry on defense, that is a wait and see but the offense looks bright as does the pass rushing/pass defense potential so we need to get leads and rush the passer. That is how the Browns and Freddie will succeed.

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52 minutes ago, Danger said:

By a much bigger margin if you take into account that Mitch massively padded his stats against the Buccaneers who legit weren't even playing football that day.

Yeah well Mayfield played the Bengal defense that didn't give effort either.

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On 6/9/2019 at 2:57 PM, Danger said:

By a much bigger margin if you take into account that Mitch massively padded his stats against the Buccaneers who legit weren't even playing football that day.

I've already disproved this.  MT10 finished w/ 24/12.  If you remove his best game and his worst game (only fair way to do it, and removes outliers), prorate over 16 games, he finishes at 24/12.  There is no stat padding.  Trubisky was a 24/12 QB last year.  Not bad for a 2nd year QB and in his first in a new offense.

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17 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

I've already disproved this.  MT10 finished w/ 24/12.  If you remove his best game and his worst game (only fair way to do it, and removes outliers), prorate over 16 games, he finishes at 24/12.  There is no stat padding.  Trubisky was a 24/12 QB last year.  Not bad for a 2nd year QB and in his first in a new offense.

Uh, you don't.

Removing the Rams game and the Bucs game

12 Games played,
254/378 (67.2%) 17 TD, 9 INT, 2759 Yards (93.6) Rating

If you take this to 16 games played:
339/504 (67.2%) 22.7 TD, 12 INT, 3769 Yards (93.6) Rating

Compared to his actual stats at a 16 game rate:
330/496 27.4 TD, 13.7 INT, 3683 (95.4) Rating

When factoring out his best and worst game, he drastically cuts down on his TD numbers and only modestly cuts down on his Interceptions. 2 points in passer rating from 2 games out of 16 isn't a small swing. It's even greater if you simply ignore the Bucs game as an outlier, but I'll give you the Rams game still. 

The numbers I see from his prorated without Bucs/Rams. If I'm being honest, are pretty lackluster and pedestrian. Average, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill type numbers. He still needs to improve by a decent margin, he didn't make the kind of jump Jared Goff and Carson Wentz (when healthy) made in their 2nd year, even if he did improve.

Edited by Danger
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On 6/9/2019 at 3:16 PM, Bearerofnews said:

I think Baker has 4800 yds 37 tds and 14 ints around 66% comp and 102 passer rating 

I think Mitch has 4640 yds 35 tds 10 ints 68% comp and around 103 passer rating 

lol, neither one of them are putting up stat lines like that. 

 

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3 hours ago, game3525 said:

lol, neither one of them are putting up stat lines like that. 

 

Yeah there's literally no way. Especially trubs. I'm not as down on him as some, but right now he's generously a mediocre to below average starter. He can get a lot better, but watching the bears last year, you could plug in most any quarterback and that team would still make the playoffs. He's going to need to step up next year if the Bears want to win the North. Especially with the additions the other teams have made.

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9 hours ago, game3525 said:
On 6/9/2019 at 3:16 PM, Bearerofnews said:

I think Baker has 4800 yds 37 tds and 14 ints around 66% comp and 102 passer rating 

I think Mitch has 4640 yds 35 tds 10 ints 68% comp and around 103 passer rating 

lol, neither one of them are putting up stat lines like that

Baker's stats from last year per start would put him at 4350 yards and 33 TD over 16 games. Also 17 interceptions.

Certainly attainable depending on circumstances and his play of course. Adding OBJ has to count for something. I personally don't think he reaches 4800 yards because of game circumstances but I think 37 TD is extremely likely. OBJ/Landry/Callaway/Higgins/Njoku/Duke?/Hunt... 11/7/6/4/6/0?/3. That is 37 with fairly conservative TD reception estimates.

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Baker's stats from last year per start would put him at 4350 yards and 33 TD over 16 games. Also 17 interceptions.

Certainly attainable depending on circumstances and his play of course. Adding OBJ has to count for something. I personally don't think he reaches 4800 yards because of game circumstances but I think 37 TD is extremely likely. OBJ/Landry/Callaway/Higgins/Njoku/Duke?/Hunt... 11/7/6/4/6/0?/3. That is 37 with fairly conservative TD reception estimates

I think you are been overly optimistic with that kind of projection. 37 touchdowns is a lot and you are generally approaching 600+ attempts to get that kind of production. 

Quote

8 qbs in 2019 will have 40 tds.  Remember i said that. And 6 will have 5000 yds.

 

2019 will be the most prolific passing season in NFL history by a good margin.

Doubt it.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if offenses in general take a step back. The average amount of touchdowns was the highest it has been in a couple of years, so regression towards the mean is in order. 

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