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Eagles Extend Carson Wentz


chiefs82

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Could either do this now and save 

or do this next year, which would go two ways.

He has another MVP level season and we pay him way more, losing this season to spread out the money. 

He gets hurt and they have the tough road of figuring out his value with an injury. 

Either way they are gonna pay him. He’s too talented not to. 

This will look affordable before the expensive years even start.

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16 minutes ago, Kiltman said:

Could either do this now and save 

or do this next year, which would go two ways.

He has another MVP level season and we pay him way more, losing this season to spread out the money. 

He gets hurt and they have the tough road of figuring out his value with an injury. 

Either way they are gonna pay him. He’s too talented not to. 

This will look affordable before the expensive years even start.

Wentz is a higher injury risk than they would like, but he is a legit qb, with top 5 potential. 

If they let him walk they would be morons, if they didnt resign him now it would cost a lot more later.

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1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

That's not how dead money works. The dead money isn't mitigated by the ghost years. You're trading cap space now for dead money later. Those ghost years make the dead money more likely and more impactful, not mitigated.

When you add those ghost years, it stretches the signing bonus out. So a $15M signing bonus on a 3 year deal would mean $5M per year in cap hit from the bonus. Add the two ghost years, and it makes it $3M per year in cap hit from the bonus. But those last two years of bonus will accelerate onto the cap when the deal autovoids. So you pay less for the 3 actual years of the contract, but in year 4 when it voids you have to pay the remainder, the $6M. So there's more dead money from that kind of contract structure, it just hasn't hit yet because Howie has mostly been doing this for the past two years or so.

If you want to see this in reality, go to overthecap, and look at the Eagles cap in distant years like 2022. Any player you see with a prorated bonus, but without a salary for that year is on a ghost year, and the dollar value listed is going to become dead cap when those deals autovoid, when they get cut, when they retire, etc.

The fundamental thing that should always be remembered when we talk about how good or bad GMs or teams are at cap management, is regardless of what they do, you cannot pay a player without paying it on the cap. You can very easily change when it's paid, you can change what kind of hit it is (bonus, salary, or dead money), but you can't pay a player without it hitting the cap. So if something isn't hitting the cap now, it will eventually.

Adjusted for cap inflation and the fact that the cap can be rolled over into an expanded cap, absolutely makes it mitigated. Not completely obviously but enough to help some year to year. Just the most recent signings for the Eagles; Jackson, Jackson, Darby and Graham all have “guaranteed voidable years”. Which saved them around 7M in this years cap alone. If those contracts were paid in full over three years or in Darby’s case, one year, that’s significantly less money they’re able to roll over. So, instead of 20M in salary rolling over, there’s only 13M. 

That cap room saved can be used for a big signing (Carson) next year when it rolls over while some of the owed money to those previous players can be paid when the cap is expanded, lessening the effect. I mean, what the hell do you think he does it for? Just to defer it? No. It’s paid but at a discount. Howie’s too calculated to get caught up. The money is paid at a later date when the cap is more forgiving. And, it gives him flexibility to move those bonuses into salaries at a later date if he chooses if/when he’s got the space to do so. 

So, what about when the money is owed or becomes dead? You’re right, it becomes accelerated. However, it’s like paying back a loan with a negative interest rate. He’s basically borrowing money from tomorrow and paying back less when it’s actually owed. This is because the cap is always expanding. Instead of dollars, think about it more in terms of percentages. In your example, a guy that takes up 5M of your money in 2019 with a cap of 190M is 2.63% of your cap. Deferring that pay into 2022, with the cap expanding at about 10M a year is only 2.27% of your money. Add into the numbers of that saved cap that rolls over and it’s entirely more valuable. So, in the end it absolutely mitigates the impact of the initial cap hit. 

So, yes the money is kicked down the road, for those that like to use that term. But it’s not exactly accurate. Signing those guys to straight up contracts would tie up valuable money today. Using the deferred method allows Howie to do what he does best, manipulate the cap. Which allows us to do this: 

 

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@Jroc04

That is *literally* what we did and how we justified it under the Phillips HC debacle. The cap was ~$100m/yr and we signed something like $250m+ in contracts over 2-3 years. We moved around all the chess pieces. We kept ahead, we played the game.

And then one day we looked at the roster and it was really old and really overpaid. We fired our HC and gutted our roster. 

You might remember that time as "lol Jason Garrett 8-8 lol, he sucks amirite" era. 

Probably made it worse that Romo was so damn good he kept us from completely tanking. 

How good is Wentz?  

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12 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

@Jroc04

That is *literally* what we did and how we justified it under the Phillips HC debacle. The cap was ~$100m/yr and we signed something like $250m+ in contracts over 2-3 years. We moved around all the chess pieces. We kept ahead, we played the game.

And then one day we looked at the roster and it was really old and really overpaid. We fired our HC and gutted our roster. 

You might remember that time as "lol Jason Garrett 8-8 lol, he sucks amirite" era. 

Probably made it worse that Romo was so damn good he kept us from completely tanking. 

How good is Wentz?  

Sure, but theres responsible ways of doing it. I.E. Eagles. And then selling your soul to the devil way. I.E. Saints and Brees. Cowboys with Ware, etc. 

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5 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

Adjusted for cap inflation and the fact that the cap can be rolled over into an expanded cap, absolutely makes it mitigated. Not completely obviously but enough to help some year to year. Just the most recent signings for the Eagles; Jackson, Jackson, Darby and Graham all have “guaranteed voidable years”. Which saved them around 7M in this years cap alone. If those contracts were paid in full over three years or in Darby’s case, one year, that’s significantly less money they’re able to roll over. So, instead of 20M in salary rolling over, there’s only 13M. 

That cap room saved can be used for a big signing (Carson) next year when it rolls over while some of the owed money to those previous players can be paid when the cap is expanded, lessening the effect. I mean, what the hell do you think he does it for? Just to defer it? No. It’s paid but at a discount. Howie’s too calculated to get caught up. The money is paid at a later date when the cap is more forgiving. And, it gives him flexibility to move those bonuses into salaries at a later date if he chooses if/when he’s got the space to do so. 

So, what about when the money is owed or becomes dead? You’re right, it becomes accelerated. However, it’s like paying back a loan with a negative interest rate. He’s basically borrowing money from tomorrow and paying back less when it’s actually owed. This is because the cap is always expanding. Instead of dollars, think about it more in terms of percentages. In your example, a guy that takes up 5M of your money in 2019 with a cap of 190M is 2.63% of your cap. Deferring that pay into 2022, with the cap expanding at about 10M a year is only 2.27% of your money. Add into the numbers of that saved cap that rolls over and it’s entirely more valuable. So, in the end it absolutely mitigates the impact of the initial cap hit. 

So, yes the money is kicked down the road, for those that like to use that term. But it’s not exactly accurate. Signing those guys to straight up contracts would tie up valuable money today. Using the deferred method allows Howie to do what he does best, manipulate the cap. Which allows us to do this: 

 

Oh, I certainly understand the premise. But when someone characterizes it as, dead money is minimal because of ghost years, ignoring the fact that ghost years are what creates the dead money, I'm going to reply, because that seems like someone just not understanding how the cap handles those years.

Though I do disagree with you on one point. Part of the reason for what he's doing absolutely is just to defer the money. Some of it absolutely is just to defer the cap hit. It's pretty clear from a look around the league that the consensus strategy for teams trying to win a superbowl is to get a great QB on a rookie contract and go all in before you have to pay them. That's why the Rams got guys like Suh and Talib, it's why KC remade the defense, it's also part of why Philly makes splashes in free agency and defers some of the payment. So some of it is definitely to maximize the talent you can have now before you have to take the cap hit from Wentz. And Howie's increased tendency to do this definitely aligned with Wentz coming on.

This also isn't necessarily a bad thing, but I do think some of the money movement is just to pay it later, and go more all in now.

To be clear here, I'm not in the camp of "LOL the Eagles are so cap screwed," but I do think their situation is sometimes mischaracterized, in posts like the one I reply to. The money is always paid, and it's often implied that the "magic" Roseman does with the cap has no cost, and it certainly does. Though I don't think it will necessarily cripple them, as some suggest, either. It will certainly hurt their cap space in future years (even if 2.3% of 2022 is less than 2.7% of 2019, it is still more than 0% of 2022.) I think the Eagles way of doing things is a way to do it. It's hard to criticize so far because it has net them a superbowl. But I'll always maintain anyways that's it's all a minor impact compared to drafting. Doesn't matter how well you manipulate cap if you draft like garbage as time goes on. And vice versa.

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On 6/6/2019 at 8:26 PM, 49erurtaza said:

I really think Rams won't extend Good franchise him twice then let him go or trade him.

 

On 6/6/2019 at 8:35 PM, ACO said:

I don't see that happening. I would be really shocked. He has done very well for them and when you have a successful QB you keep him.

Particularly as that would make the cap hits more severe sooner vs. a long-term deal (which doesn’t make sense if you think your window is now through 4/5 years from now). 

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17 hours ago, El ramster said:

lol The NBA had like 7 teams in that span. 

Doesn't matter. They've won in almost every decade I believe. It's either them or the Lakers.

The Pats have had a good run here but before Brady they were average or worse as a franchise.  

Historically, it's the Canadians, Celtics, Lakers and Yankees.

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On 6/6/2019 at 6:44 PM, Matts4313 said:

No, its exactly as I said. Dak was better the first 20-25 games. And they were tied the last 11. Dak has been >/= Wentz in 30+ out of the the 48 available games. Wentz has played 40 of them. 

here's the thing.. almost everyone disagrees with your stance that Dak is better than Wentz... Wentz is just a better all around talent.  Dak wasn't even ranked in the 2017 top 100 voted by players... if that doesn't scream not worth a huge contract... then i don't know what does... IMO Dak will always be a QB  who can manage an offense well but the Cowboys will forever look for a better replacement. 

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34 minutes ago, eagles18 said:

here's the thing.. almost everyone disagrees with your stance that Dak is better than Wentz... Wentz is just a better all around talent.  Dak wasn't even ranked in the 2017 top 100 voted by players... if that doesn't scream not worth a huge contract... then i don't know what does... IMO Dak will always be a QB  who can manage an offense well but the Cowboys will forever look for a better replacement. 

Heres the thing. Almost no one disagrees with me that they are in the same ballpark (10-15 range). 

Here is also the thing, I never said Dak > Wentz in terms of ability, I said Dak is better statistically (true) and in durability (true).

Here the thing, Dak lost his LT for parts of the year, C, new LG, no #1 WR for a good stretch (Dez was hurt, didnt have Cooper to start the year).  His OL was ranked 28 and his WR's ranked 32. A worse situation than the Cardinals, Browns, Fins, whomever.

Heres the thing, those ~10ish games were horrific. The other almost 30+ games.... Dak = or > Wentz statistically. 

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8 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

People discount it when you say statistically. Say he has been more productive. That is still stats driven but sounds much prettier. 

You are right. Let me stat it another way:

23 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Dak's camp: "Oh, Carson got how much?"

- 3rd most wins in the league
- 2nd most GWD's
- Two division titles
- Playoff win
- Better stats than Wentz
- Better h2h record vs Wentz
- Never missed a game

"Pay up, Jerruh." Seriously, Dak's value won't be higher than it is right now.

There we are. 

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