The Run Game doesnt matter

[matt79511]

Breathing matters, too. Hopefully we don’t run out of oxygen

[Matts4313]

2 hours ago, DaBoys said:

And once again this means nothing.

Most of the time when the QB checks down to the RB, it isn't by design. Not every RB catch is a screen play. Most of the time he is a last resort. 

So yes, when the designed pass play doesn't work out, and your options are dump it to the RB or get sacked, then it's what we, in the football world, call a busted play. That's not the RBs fault. Everyone knows passing to the RB isn't the big key to winning, strawman. 

 

Imagine the mental gymnastics you have to perform to let a cherry picked stat convince you that Saquan Barkley was a below average receiver last year. 

 

 

 

You didnt read the article, did you?

 

1 hour ago, DaBoys said:

And the Patriots aren't the only team investing in RBs.

 

It shouldn't be a conundrum. You have a bunch of nerdy dudes that have never played the sport sitting around a spreadsheet telling us that running backs don't matter at all. Meanwhile there isn't a current or former player/coach or GM that will tell you a running back is worthless, and there isn't a team on the planet at any level that plays without a RB on the roster/ or runs 100% empty back sets.

It doesn't exist because RBs are valuable to an offense. 

 

Literally every single GM is tell you that by their action. And former players/coaches have also spoken to is. So this is just... false. 

[DaBoys]

2 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

You didnt read the article, did you?

 

Literally every single GM is tell you that by their action. And former players/coaches have also spoken to is. So this is just... false. 

Give me a quote, with a link, from an actual football player or coach saying that “RBs don’t matter.”

 

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, DaBoys said:

Give me a quote, with a link, from an actual football player or coach saying that “RBs don’t matter.”

 

They dont say those exact words. Obviously. You are smarter than to think they would. 

Its how they talk about the passing game. What they focus their improvement on. What they spend their draft capital.

If you work at a big corporation, they dont say "Hey the line level employees dont really matter. Easily replaceable"

They just fire them when they outlive their usefulness. 

--------------------------------------------------

But maybe tomorrow I will see if any of the analyst from these sites are former players. 

[DaBoys]

 

12 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

They dont say those exact words. Obviously. You are smarter than to think they would. 

Its how they talk about the passing game. What they focus their improvement on. What they spend their draft capital.

The Patriots just spent a 1st on a RB and won the SB.

The Cowboys(the team you like) drafted two this year in the same draft, plus spent a top 5 pick on one recently.

The Seahawks have battled the Patriots more than anybody in these SBs and they just spent a 1st rounder on Penny. Or is it the Giants that have battled the Patriots more than any NFC team? Doesn't matter... they just spent the 2nd overall pick on Barkley.

Gurley in the first round, Founette, etc... other teams are doing it as well. Bad teams, good teams, and the best team.. all drafting RBs. Doing it early and often. 

 

Speaking of often... there were 25 RBs drafted last year. Only 11 QBs were selected, and only 13 the year before that, which is par for the course. Meanwhile 20 plus RBs are drafted year in and year out.

 

Again... nobody argued that RBs are the most important aspect of football, but to say they don't matter at all is ignorance.

Edited August 17, 2019 by DaBoys

[Matts4313]

Quote

Do Running Backs Matter?

There is a growing consensus in the analytics community that “running backs don’t matter.” That statement probably shouldn’t be taken literally, but it rests on several pieces that have been empirically established at this point:

• The run game is inefficient compared to the passing game. This is straightforward; NFL teams in 2018 averaged 6.4 net yards per pass attempt (includes lost yardage due to sacks) and 4.4 yards per rushing attempt. Every single team passed more effectively than it threw the ball.
• To the extent the run game does matter, the running back is only one piece; he is not going to go far without quality blockers in front. Johnson led the NFL in touchdowns in 2016, but averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry in 2016. Gurley is coming off two First-Team All-Pro seasons, but he averaged 3.2 yards per carry in 2016 with a brutal supporting cast.
• Moreover, rushing efficiency is heavily determined by number of defenders in the box.
• Some running backs are effective pass-catchers, but in general, throwing to running backs is less efficient than throwing to wide receivers or tight ends.
• Play-action passes are perhaps the best plays in football, but there is no correlation between running frequency or efficiency and play-action passing efficiency.
• Lastly, and most importantly, recent history suggests that running backs are one of the easier positions to replace. The Pittsburgh Steelers had success on the ground without Bell, plugging in James Conner when Bell held out for the season. The Los Angeles Rams grabbed C.J. Anderson off the street and watched him perform comparable to Gurley down the stretch when Gurley’s balky knees acted up. The Denver Broncos used a high pick on Royce Freeman only to see undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay outperform him. Note that this point is difficult to quantify and remains largely anecdotal.
• There are a bevy of other reasons people will offer as to why the running game matters (controlling the clock, wearing down defenses, setting up the pass, etc.); this Twitter thread from Ben Baldwin debunks them individually.

The running game has its place; no one thinks teams can run pass 100% of the time and still be effective, and certain situations (short yardage, goal line, leading big, against light boxes) dictate that a team should run more. Some of the best football minds still place value on running backs, as evidenced by the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots using first-round picks on RBs in the 2018 draft. But the evidence is clear that teams should run less and pass more, and that running backs do not have as large a role in offensive performance as commonly believed.

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/teams-nfl/nfc-east/dallas-cowboys/2019/09/13/45221/

 

Quote

OK, But This is Zeke

The statistical case is clear in general, but what about the specifics? Zeke Elliott isn’t your average running back; he’s led the NFL in rushing yards per game in each of his three seasons. He stands with Jim Brown as one of only two backs to average more than 100 yards on the ground per game for his career, with his 101.2 yards per game just nudging ahead of Barry Sanders (99.8) and Terrell Davis (97.5). And he’s no one-trick pony; he added 77 receptions to his ground work in 2018, and is well-regarded for his pass protection.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the analytics community has a less-rosy take on Elliott. Over the past two seasons, Elliott has averaged 4.4 yards per carry, which is pretty close to the league average over that span. His 77 catches went for only 567 yards, a 7.4 yards per catch mark that ranked 127th in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranked Zeke just the 30th-best back in the NFL in 2018, factoring in his six fumbles, a surprising lack of broken tackles, and his good fortune in running behind a quality offensive line. His red zone performance was below-average in 2018. PFF’s Kevin Cole estimated Elliott’s value as more consistent with a $6-$8 MM RB than the contract he actually received, nearly double.

 

[canadaluvsdallas]

this has now evolved into QB vs RB position war value.

thank god the nfl season is here boys good lord

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, canadaluvsdallas said:

this has now evolved into QB vs RB position war value.

thank god the nfl season is here boys good lord

It was from the beginning kinda. 

And there is no war. QBs matter. Running game doesnt.

[Runaway Jim]

Analytics are dumb. Running game RULES!!

[eagles suck]

27 minutes ago, Runaway Jim said:

Analytics are dumb. Running game RULES!!

Tell that to Barkley, Mixon, D. Johnson, AP and McCaffrey 

[DaBoys]

So was it Dalvin Cooks 21 carries 100+ yards and 2 TDs that got the Vikings the win last week?

Or was it Kirk Cousins 8 completions on 10 attempts?

 

Would love to hear you guys spin this 

Edited September 14, 2019 by DaBoys

[DaBoys]

8 minutes ago, eagles suck said:

Tell that to Barkley, Mixon, D. Johnson, AP and McCaffrey 

I don't get it. Barkley was the best part of the Giants offense. Mixon got hurt and barely played. The Lions threw for way more yards than the Cardinals and tied them. AP, didn't play week 1 at all. Tampa Bay beat the panthers, out rushing them 100 yards to 39.

 

 

[eagles suck]

19 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

I don't get it. Barkley was the best part of the Giants offense. Mixon got hurt and barely played. The Lions threw for way more yards than the Cardinals and tied them. AP, didn't play week 1 at all. Tampa Bay beat the panthers, out rushing them 100 yards to 39.

 

 

I speaking career wise. They all are good Rbs but just not as important enough to win games for their respective teams 

[quiller]

Wow. I guess I will chime in two of the Best Qb’s of all time never won the super bowl.     There are a ton of ways to win running passing ....

but it all comes down to making the plays when you have to not making mistakes at the wrong times and a bit of luck.  

[Matts4313]

3 hours ago, DaBoys said:

So was it Dalvin Cooks 21 carries 100+ yards and 2 TDs that got the Vikings the win last week?

Or was it Kirk Cousins 8 completions on 10 attempts?

 

Would love to hear you guys spin this 

You cant spin an argument that you still dont understand after like 3 months or whatever.... 

Or really like 5 years that the analytics have been pushing the narrative.