Player Rankings

[ny92mike]

So @RTTRUTH and I have been working on a player ranking system based purely on stats.

We're still trying to find the right layout but right now we're just looking for some feedback.

Currently we're got quarterback, running back and receiver set up to view. Again we're still refining this process. When looking this over keep in mind that in the Passing List sheet, that the player is only being graded on pass related stats. His name will be found in the Rushing List for those types of stats.

We also included end of season ProFootball Focus (PFF) rankings to use as a comparison. I tried to keep all of our rankings located in column G&H under the title TCMD.

Hope you guys enjoy looking it over and we look forward to hearing what you've got to say as we look to get some constructive criticism.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NX3s04GKLjSQoMhFMpTt2nt5qPtGZGDQ7JjHrzMts1E/edit?usp=sharing

[ny92mike]

Here are the top 20 for qb, rb and wr/te

PFF Rank	PFF Grade	TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	NFL Rnk	Player	Team	Pos	Comp	Att	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	Int	1st	1st%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	Rate
2	93.2	1	98.6%	369	2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	383	580	66	36.2	5,097	8.8	318.6	50	12	237	40.9	89	75	15	26	113.8
11	84.3	2	97.1%	381	3	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	422	608	69.4	38	4,924	8.1	307.8	35	7	236	38.8	75	56	9	42	108.1
16	78.2	3	95.7%	386	1	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	452	675	67	42.2	5,129	7.6	320.6	34	16	248	36.7	97	61	16	24	96.5
1	94.7	4	94.3%	386	13	Drew Brees	NO	QB	364	489	74.4	32.6	3,992	8.2	266.1	32	5	199	40.7	72	58	6	17	115.7
8	85.5	5	92.9%	374	4	Jared Goff	LA	QB	364	561	64.9	35.1	4,688	8.4	293	32	12	233	41.5	70	69	9	33	101.1
6	89.9	6	91.4%	364	6	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	372	597	62.3	37.3	4,442	7.4	277.6	25	2	200	33.5	75	55	16	49	97.6
3	92.2	7	90.0%	341	5	Andrew Luck	IND	QB	430	639	67.3	39.9	4,593	7.2	287.1	39	15	236	36.9	68	53	7	18	98.7
4	91.2	8	88.6%	380	8	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	347	508	68.3	31.8	4,308	8.5	269.2	32	12	213	41.9	75	60	10	32	105.5
5	90.7	9	87.1%	362	7	Tom Brady	NE	QB	375	570	65.8	35.6	4,355	7.6	272.2	29	11	205	36	63	53	8	21	97.7
15	79.3	10	85.7%	374	10	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	425	606	70.1	37.9	4,298	7.1	268.6	30	10	218	36	75	47	7	40	99.7
31	64.3	11	84.3%	361	9	Eli Manning	NYG	QB	380	576	66	36	4,299	7.5	268.7	21	11	206	35.8	58	57	10	47	92.4
13	80.7	12	82.9%	342	11	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	345	505	68.3	31.6	4,165	8.2	260.3	26	9	202	40	73	51	8	62	103.1
7	89.2	13	81.4%	378	18	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	280	427	65.6	26.7	3,448	8.1	215.5	35	7	156	36.5	66	47	13	51	110.9
21	73.4	14	80.0%	396	12	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	381	553	68.9	34.6	4,049	7.3	253.1	19	10	197	35.6	66	52	7	51	93.9
9	84.5	15	78.6%	395	17	Baker Mayfield	CLE	QB	310	486	63.8	34.7	3,725	7.7	266.1	27	14	171	35.2	71	52	9	25	93.7
14	79.4	16	77.1%	369	21	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	279	401	69.6	36.5	3,074	7.7	279.5	21	7	159	39.7	58	37	5	31	102.2
20	74.1	17	75.7%	366	15	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	356	526	67.7	32.9	3,885	7.4	242.8	22	8	184	35	90	39	9	56	96.9
17	77.8	18	74.3%	369	16	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	367	555	66.1	34.7	3,777	6.8	236.1	21	11	198	35.7	67	44	6	40	89.9
23	70.9	19	72.9%	389	19	Cam Newton	CAR	QB	320	471	67.9	33.6	3,395	7.2	242.5	24	13	180	38.2	82	44	3	29	94.2
26	69.5	20	71.4%	396	14	Case Keenum	DEN	QB	365	586	62.3	36.6	3,890	6.6	243.1	18	15	179	30.5	64	52	11	34	81.2

 

PFF Rank	PFF Grade	TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Att	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	Lng	1st	1st%	20+	40+	FUM
16	78.8	1	99.5%	374	3	Todd Gurley	LA	RB	256	18.3	1,251	4.9	89.4	17	36	70	27.3	11	0	0
3	85.9	2	99.1%	361	6	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	261	16.3	1,307	5	81.7	11	78	50	19.2	16	7	0
23	75.3	3	98.6%	366	2	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	304	20.3	1,434	4.7	95.6	6	41	73	24	11	1	6
17	78.2	4	98.1%	393	4	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	237	16.9	1,168	4.9	83.4	8	51	60	25.3	11	3	0
27	72.8	5	97.7%	386	9	James Conner	PIT	RB	215	16.5	973	4.5	74.8	12	30	56	26	9	0	3
5	84.7	6	97.2%	378	5	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	247	17.6	1,151	4.7	82.2	9	61	61	24.7	8	1	3
6	84.1	7	96.7%	386	22	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	194	12.9	883	4.6	58.9	14	49	57	29.4	1	1	0
11	81.6	8	96.2%	396	13	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	192	12.8	1,037	5.4	69.1	9	65	49	25.5	8	3	0
2	87	9	95.8%	353	15	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	215	13.4	1,059	4.9	66.2	12	99	51	23.7	4	2	0
1	87.5	10	95.3%	395	20	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	192	12	996	5.2	62.2	8	92	47	24.5	11	4	0
7	83.8	11	94.8%	380	10	Melvin Gordon	LAC	RB	175	14.6	885	5.1	73.8	10	34	47	26.9	9	0	0
9	82.8	12	94.4%	389	14	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	219	13.7	1,098	5	68.6	7	59	53	24.2	6	3	2
35	70.8	13	93.9%	341	7	Marlon Mack	IND	RB	195	16.2	908	4.7	75.7	9	49	50	25.6	7	1	1
30	72	14	93.4%	370	24	Jordan Howard	CHI	RB	250	15.6	935	3.7	58.4	9	42	53	21.2	5	1	2
18	77	15	93.0%	366	17	Adrian Peterson	WAS	RB	251	15.7	1,042	4.2	65.1	7	90	47	18.7	5	3	2
		16	92.5%	369	8	Kareem Hunt	KC	RB	181	16.5	824	4.6	74.9	7	45	46	25.4	7	1	0
27	65.5	17	92.0%	363	32	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	89	7.4	631	7.1	52.6	8	45	41	46.1	8	1	5
19	76.6	18	91.5%	362	11	Sony Michel	NE	RB	209	16.1	931	4.5	71.6	6	34	54	25.8	4	0	1
52	63.6	19	91.1%	392	23	David Johnson	ARI	RB	258	16.1	940	3.6	58.8	7	53	51	19.8	2	1	2
12	81.4	20	90.6%	364	21	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	133	11.1	728	5.5	60.7	8	67	41	30.8	4	1	1

 

PFF Rank	PFF Grade	TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
6	89.6	1	99.8%	369	15	Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	87	1,479	17	92.4	75	12	27	8	60	69	0
1	92	2	99.6%	342	3	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	WR	115	1,572	13.7	98.2	49	11	23	4	81	70.4	2
13	84.3	3	99.4%	385	17	Mike Evans	TB	WR	86	1,524	17.7	95.2	72	8	26	6	69	80.2	1
25	79.3	4	99.2%	386	9	Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	104	1,297	12.5	86.5	78	15	17	6	63	60.6	0
3	90.9	5	99.0%	381	4	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	113	1,677	14.8	104.8	58	8	24	2	80	70.8	2
10	87.8	6	98.8%	364	6	Davante Adams	GB	WR	111	1,386	12.5	92.4	57	13	18	5	64	57.7	0
7	89.5	7	98.6%	374	4	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	113	1,373	12.2	85.8	68	9	17	3	74	65.5	1
16	81.8	8	98.4%	386	6	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	111	1,426	12.8	89.1	97	7	18	5	68	61.3	1
2	91.3	9	98.2%	386	1	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	125	1,405	11.2	87.8	72	9	17	2	75	60	2
1	89.8	10	98.0%	387	14	George Kittle	SF	TE	88	1,377	15.6	86.1	85	5	20	6	60	68.2	0
8	88.5	11	97.8%	341	24	T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	76	1,270	16.7	90.7	68	6	22	6	55	72.4	0
3	88.6	12	97.6%	369	10	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	103	1,336	13	83.5	43	10	18	2	68	66	2
23	79.7	13	97.4%	374	21	Brandin Cooks	LA	WR	80	1,204	15.1	75.2	57	5	22	4	56	70	1
9	88	14	97.2%	374	17	Robert Woods	LA	WR	86	1,219	14.2	76.2	39	6	20	0	66	76.7	0
12	84.6	15	97.0%	393	24	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	76	1,028	13.5	73.4	49	7	21	1	54	71.1	0
14	82.3	16	96.8%	378	54	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	57	965	16.9	60.3	52	10	17	6	37	64.9	1
18	81.1	17	96.6%	369	31	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	70	1,063	15.2	70.9	60	5	19	3	56	80	1
4	90	18	96.4%	361	22	Odell Beckham	NYG	WR	77	1,052	13.7	87.7	51	6	17	3	51	66.2	0
9	75.8	19	96.2%	369	2	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	116	1,163	10	72.7	34	8	13	0	66	56.9	1
4	90	20	96.0%	380	12	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	97	1,196	12.3	74.8	54	6	13	1	62	63.9	1

[Thomas5737]

I dunno, Eli is ahead of guys who are statistically superior, vastly even. Unless attempts per game are weighted extremely heavy I'm not sure how he is ahead of (or close to) Watson.

[SBLIII]

If you take the average, Mahomes, Barkley and Nuk were the best at their respective position. That feels right.

[ny92mike]

5 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

I dunno, Eli is ahead of guys who are statistically superior, vastly even. Unless attempts per game are weighted extremely heavy I'm not sure how he is ahead of (or close to) Watson.

Agree.  That 11 is to high for Eli and changing the attempt weight will drop his a few spots.

[Thomas5737]

I'd also try to soften the bulk stat effect  as much as possible. Use TD% and INT percentage instead of the actual number.

[ny92mike]

14 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

I'd also try to soften the bulk stat effect  as much as possible. Use TD% and INT percentage instead of the actual number.

I did something along those lines in the past and players that had limited stats, like 2 attempts ranked really high.  I'll give it another go and post the results.

Appreciate the feedback.

[ny92mike]

48 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

I'd also try to soften the bulk stat effect  as much as possible. Use TD% and INT percentage instead of the actual number.

I'm sure there is a way to calculate this so that it doesn't put the lessor stats at the top, but I haven't figured it out yet.  When I use the stats divided by the number of attempts the ranking is drastically changed.  It does put Eli at 28, but the entire ranking order looks horrible from top to bottom to the point I'm embarrassed to even show it...haha.  

This is just the top 10 calculating the stat/attempt method applied to the following Yards, TD, INT, 1st, 20+, 40+ and Sck.   If you'd like to see the complete list let me know. 

TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	NFL Rnk	Player
1	98.6%	363	51	Matt Barkley
2	97.1%	369	71	Nate Sudfeld
3	95.7%	369	2	Patrick Mahomes
4	94.3%	386	13	Drew Brees
5	92.9%	389	50	Kyle Allen
6	91.4%	385	28	Ryan Fitzpatrick
7	90.0%	369	67	Chad Henne
8	88.6%	380	8	Philip Rivers
9	87.1%	392	53	Mike Glennon
10	85.7%	374	4	Jared Goff

  

I still believe that bulk stats are important when ranking, there is a reason Drew Brees early on was throwing the ball 600+ 7 seasons in a row, and why the past two seasons those numbers are on the decline yet still extremely high compared to the league average.  He's amazing one of the best.  I don't think just any quarterback can have that many attempts and still post solid numbers.  Getting too balanced with every statline removes this from the equation, imo.  Also, keep in mind that players like Alex Smith and C. Wentz are graded lower because they weren't playing a full season, raising them above others that were playing doesn't seem right either.  

 

 

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, ny92mike said:

I'm sure there is a way to calculate this so that it doesn't put the lessor stats at the top, but I haven't figured it out yet.  When I use the stats divided by the number of attempts the ranking is drastically changed.  It does put Eli at 28, but the entire ranking order looks horrible from top to bottom to the point I'm embarrassed to even show it...haha.  

This is just the top 10 calculating the stat/attempt method applied to the following Yards, TD, INT, 1st, 20+, 40+ and Sck.   If you'd like to see the complete list let me know. 

 

TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	NFL Rnk	Player
1	98.6%	363	51	Matt Barkley
2	97.1%	369	71	Nate Sudfeld
3	95.7%	369	2	Patrick Mahomes
4	94.3%	386	13	Drew Brees
5	92.9%	389	50	Kyle Allen
6	91.4%	385	28	Ryan Fitzpatrick
7	90.0%	369	67	Chad Henne
8	88.6%	380	8	Philip Rivers
9	87.1%	392	53	Mike Glennon
10	85.7%	374	4	Jared Goff

  

I still believe that bulk stats are important when ranking, there is a reason Drew Brees early on was throwing the ball 600+ 7 seasons in a row, and why the past two seasons those numbers are on the decline yet still extremely high compared to the league average.  He's amazing one of the best.  I don't think just any quarterback can have that many attempts and still post solid numbers.  Getting too balanced with every statline removes this from the equation, imo.  Also, keep in mind that players like Alex Smith and C. Wentz are graded lower because they weren't playing a full season, raising them above others that were playing doesn't seem right either.  

 

 

You would have to get rid of non-qualifying players like under 300 pass attempts. If you play half of a year extremely well and are injured the other half it would still show how well you did for the half season it would just be a smaller sample size so a couple big games or terrible ones may skew the stats over what would likely happen over a full season but it is still an indicator of how well they played. Mahomes/Brees at 1 and 2 make sense and statistically. Fitz had some great games in his half seasonish so that makes sense and Goff/Rivers had good years so that partial list doesn't look bad if you remove the non-qualifiers.

[ny92mike]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

You would have to get rid of non-qualifying players like under 300 pass attempts. If you play half of a year extremely well and are injured the other half it would still show how well you did for the half season it would just be a smaller sample size so a couple big games or terrible ones may skew the stats over what would likely happen over a full season but it is still an indicator of how well they played. Mahomes/Brees at 1 and 2 make sense and statistically. Fitz had some great games in his half seasonish so that makes sense and Goff/Rivers had good years so that partial list doesn't look bad if you remove the non-qualifiers.

This is the list, after removing pass attempts less than 300.

 

TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	NFL Rnk	Player	Team	Pos
1	96.8%	386	13	Drew Brees	NO	QB
2	93.5%	369	2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB
3	90.3%	380	8	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB
4	87.1%	374	4	Jared Goff	LA	QB
5	83.9%	381	3	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB
6	80.6%	369	21	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB
7	77.4%	342	11	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB
8	74.2%	378	18	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB
9	71.0%	385	22	Jameis Winston	TB	QB
10	67.7%	386	1	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB
11	64.5%	395	17	Baker Mayfield	CLE	QB
12	61.3%	341	5	Andrew Luck	IND	QB
13	58.1%	389	19	Cam Newton	CAR	QB
14	54.8%	362	7	Tom Brady	NE	QB
15	51.6%	353	26	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB
16	48.4%	393	25	Andy Dalton	CIN	QB
17	45.2%	370	20	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	QB
18	41.9%	374	10	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB
19	38.7%	361	9	Eli Manning	NYG	QB
20	35.5%	396	12	Derek Carr	OAK	QB
21	32.3%	364	6	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB
22	29.0%	366	15	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB
23	25.8%	366	31	Alex Smith	WAS	QB
24	22.6%	389	27	Joe Flacco	BAL	QB
25	19.4%	369	16	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB
26	16.1%	352	23	Sam Darnold	NYJ	QB
27	12.9%	369	24	Blake Bortles	JAX	QB
28	9.7%	396	14	Case Keenum	DEN	QB
29	6.5%	363	32	Josh Allen	BUF	QB
30	3.2%	392	29	Josh Rosen	ARI	QB

Edited June 9, 2019 by ny92mike

[Thomas5737]

58 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

This is the list, after removing pass attempts less than 300.

 

TCMD Rank	TCMD Grade	SOS - Pts	NFL Rnk	Player	Team	Pos
1	96.8%	386	13	Drew Brees	NO	QB
2	93.5%	369	2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB
3	90.3%	380	8	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB
4	87.1%	374	4	Jared Goff	LA	QB
5	83.9%	381	3	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB
6	80.6%	369	21	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB
7	77.4%	342	11	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB
8	74.2%	378	18	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB
9	71.0%	385	22	Jameis Winston	TB	QB
10	67.7%	386	1	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB
11	64.5%	395	17	Baker Mayfield	CLE	QB
12	61.3%	341	5	Andrew Luck	IND	QB
13	58.1%	389	19	Cam Newton	CAR	QB
14	54.8%	362	7	Tom Brady	NE	QB
15	51.6%	353	26	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB
16	48.4%	393	25	Andy Dalton	CIN	QB
17	45.2%	370	20	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	QB
18	41.9%	374	10	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB
19	38.7%	361	9	Eli Manning	NYG	QB
20	35.5%	396	12	Derek Carr	OAK	QB
21	32.3%	364	6	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB
22	29.0%	366	15	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB
23	25.8%	366	31	Alex Smith	WAS	QB
24	22.6%	389	27	Joe Flacco	BAL	QB
25	19.4%	369	16	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB
26	16.1%	352	23	Sam Darnold	NYJ	QB
27	12.9%	369	24	Blake Bortles	JAX	QB
28	9.7%	396	14	Case Keenum	DEN	QB
29	6.5%	363	32	Josh Allen	BUF	QB
30	3.2%	392	29	Josh Rosen	ARI	QB

Not perfect but certainly not terrible either. I think it looks better than the original. You won't get the best QB list just the best production from the one specific year. There are a couple spots I'd like to move around but the numbers are the numbers. One example would be Brady but he was 15th in passer rating so even though he jumps out at you he fares better here than there.

[ny92mike]

6 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Not perfect but certainly not terrible either. I think it looks better than the original. You won't get the best QB list just the best production from the one specific year. There are a couple spots I'd like to move around but the numbers are the numbers. One example would be Brady but he was 15th in passer rating so even though he jumps out at you he fares better here than there.

It doesn't look bad, I won't say it's better than the previous but I also won't say it's worse either.  I'd be cool with this ranking system if I could use it for the majority of the players.  I hate the idea of having to remove so many from the ranking because they skew the data due to low attempts.  Perhaps, including Games played and Game starts could get worked into the formula.

  

 

[Thomas5737]

15 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

It doesn't look bad, I won't say it's better than the previous but I also won't say it's worse either.  I'd be cool with this ranking system if I could use it for the majority of the players.  I hate the idea of having to remove so many from the ranking because they skew the data due to low attempts.  Perhaps, including Games played and Game starts could get worked into the formula.

  

 

Maybe but you would be punishing a QB that is sitting week 17 because they already wrapped everything up. It's yours though so obviously you get to make those decisions. You're doing a good job.

[ny92mike]

2 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Maybe but you would be punishing a QB that is sitting week 17 because they already wrapped everything up. It's yours though so obviously you get to make those decisions. You're doing a good job.

Week 17 is one thing, missing half the season is something else.  

Now this is just one example and I'm sure you can find other examples to negate it, but check out Russell Wilson's career stats.  I think he's a great quarterback opinion wise and stat wise.  He does seem to produce a better qb rating when given fewer attempts and he hasn't missed a single game.  Don't get me wrong I think you're right about using the percentages but I also think something can be said for players that have more attempts.  Let me play around with the numbers some more to see if I can work in a formula to account for this without messing up what you are suggesting. 

Thanks man.

[TedLavie]

Hey Mike:

QB: Russ way too low, Eli way too high. Otherwise I can get behind those rankings as basically every QB aside from Mahomes had uneven seasons

RB: Kinda shocked about Mixon at 4. Conner at 5 seems a tad too high. I'd rank McCaffrey a bit higher, but I think you're taking into account only running stats, not receiving right?

WR: ODB and AJ Green are criminally low. Do you take into account injuries? Neither played 16 games and it seems to make them drop in your rankings. Not surprised to see Evans this high given you're taking only stats into account, but I'd put him in the Juju/Thielen/Thomas tier instead of the Nuke/Brown/Julio/Tyreek tier.

 

That being said, aside from those cases, I think those rankings reflect well the dynamics of the 18 season. Good work