WindyCity Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said: Do you know why the cap went down? Its bc the players % of revenue went from 55% to 48% that's why. I can guarantee you the revenue aint going down from 48%. I know. But we also cannot assume any kind of significant jump, because there is little to no chance it goes significantly up for 48%. We should expect continued steady 8-10 million bumps for the forseeable future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 If you are sure about Mitch, which I think we are still a long way off from, you should extend him after next season. Ideally he throws for 40 TDS and12 INTs and they can take advantage of the cheap years on his deal. If they wait till after year 4 they are not going to have as much flexibility, but that may be worthwhile if they are not sure and they do not want to get caught over their skis. The nightmare scenario is that he has another okay season like 2018, because then you are in a real grey area in terms of money to commit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, WindyCity said: I know. But we also cannot assume any kind of significant jump, because there is little to no chance it goes significantly up for 48%. We should expect continued steady 8-10 million bumps for the forseeable future. On that I would agree. Maybe they can go up to 49% but yeah there is not going to be the massive jump in the cap. But looking 2 years down the line it's probably $24M more than now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, WindyCity said: If you are sure about Mitch, which I think we are still a long way off from, you should extend him after next season. Ideally he throws for 40 TDS and12 INTs and they can take advantage of the cheap years on his deal. If they wait till after year 4 they are not going to have as much flexibility, but that may be worthwhile if they are not sure and they do not want to get caught over their skis. The nightmare scenario is that he has another okay season like 2018, because then you are in a real grey area in terms of money to commit. I dont think he needs to throw 40 TDs bc the number of QBs to have EVER done that is incredibly small. Let's get real. First off, looking at what 10 did in a vaccuum no one would say was just "ok". It was statistically the best season of any QB in the history of this franchise, in his 2nd year. The problem is you (and many like you tbf) dont want to look at his performance in a vaccuum, you have a bad case of mahommes envy. But what you and the others like you need to realize is that what Mahommes does vs what Tru does is not apples to apples and never has been. Mahommes got to learn the system completely before ever taking a snap, Tru had to learn on the fly. Mahommes has one of the best TEs in the game. Tru has a good TE. Mahommes, for 3/4 of the season) had a top 5 rushing/receiving rb. Mahommes had the single biggest game breaker in the league. Mahommes had an offense that had spent 5 years together and he came in as the final piece. If Mahommes hadn't done what he did last year everyone would be talking about the maturation process of Tru and he would be everyone's star on the rise. Unfortunately that isnt the case so he is getting a ton of hate for a probowl season (deserved) and a season where he led his team to the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said: I dont think he needs to throw 40 TDs bc the number of QBs to have EVER done that is incredibly small. Let's get real. First off, looking at what 10 did in a vaccuum no one would say was just "ok". It was statistically the best season of any QB in the history of this franchise, in his 2nd year. The problem is you (and many like you tbf) dont want to look at his performance in a vaccuum, you have a bad case of mahommes envy. But what you and the others like you need to realize is that what Mahommes does vs what Tru does is not apples to apples and never has been. Mahommes got to learn the system completely before ever taking a snap, Tru had to learn on the fly. Mahommes has one of the best TEs in the game. Tru has a good TE. Mahommes, for 3/4 of the season) had a top 5 rushing/receiving rb. Mahommes had the single biggest game breaker in the league. Mahommes had an offense that had spent 5 years together and he came in as the final piece. If Mahommes hadn't done what he did last year everyone would be talking about the maturation process of Tru and he would be everyone's star on the rise. Unfortunately that isnt the case so he is getting a ton of hate for a probowl season (deserved) and a season where he led his team to the playoffs. I am saying if he throws 40 TDs it is a no brainer decision to do it next season, back up the brinks truck. I think you could still extend him after next season with a good season, but I would not be in a rush to do it and may want to see more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLCbear Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 (edited) Currently MT is prob worth 15-22per ..if he eliminates the one or two dangerous throws he seems to make every game and the running game takes off he may evolve into 30/35per ha enjoy the ride ! I see MT becoming a very good QB and giving us a 25per hometown discount ...MT shouldn't ever kill our cap unless he blossoms into Andrew Luck ...which is another great problem to have Edited June 17, 2019 by SLCbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 14 hours ago, WindyCity said: Nothing is wiped out it is added in. Not accurate Windy. If an extension is agreed to prior to the 5th year there is no 5th year option salary period. In Wentz case the remainder of his rookie contract is combined with the extension. That's why his cap hit for the signing bonus is much higher this year. It includes the remainder of his rookie guarantee. The same would be true if Mitch's extension takes place in 2020 as opposed to 2021, his 5th season. Look at Leonard Floyd. We exercised his 5th year option at a cost of $13.22 mil for 2020. If Pace extends his deal beginning in 2020 that goes away and is replaced by whatever the terms of his new deal call for. Typically he'll receive a large signing bonus that will equal or exceed that amount but can be amortized over the life of that contract, 4-5 years, and a minimal salary. For example. Let's say it's a 5 year extension for $60 mil w/$30 mil gtd and a $15 mil signing bonus and a 2020 salary of $1 mil. The 2020 cap hit will be 1/5 of $15 mil = $3 mil plus $1 mil in salary = $4 mil total. So roughly 20% of the cost of a one year option and 25% of the deals AAV. Salary increases and likely roster bonuses will make up the balance of the $30 mil in ensuing years. I'm not saying this is what he will get. It's only an example but my point is there is no 5th year option if an extension is agreed to prior to that season. What Pace and Laine choose to do with Mitch is up to them. I'm not gonna try to predict it now since both Whitehair and Floyd seem to be "next man up" as far as extensions go and a new CBA will impact Mitch and others like Cohen and Jackson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 On 6/17/2019 at 5:20 PM, SLCbear said: Currently MT is prob worth 15-22per ..if he eliminates the one or two dangerous throws he seems to make every game and the running game takes off he may evolve into 30/35per ha enjoy the ride ! I see MT becoming a very good QB and giving us a 25per hometown discount ...MT shouldn't ever kill our cap unless he blossoms into Andrew Luck ...which is another great problem to have Sure, 5 years ago. Those are absolute pipe dream numbers in the present day QB market. There are currently 19 NFL QBs making at least $15M annually, and 14 at $22M or more. Of those 14 contracts at $22M+ only 3 weren’t signed at least 2 years ago: Cousins (whose deal is 100% guaranteed), Brees (who is 40) and Foles. Here are the 5 guys between $15M and $22M: Manning $21M: signed in 2015 Rivers $20.8M: signed in 2015 and working toward an extension likely in the Rodgers/Wilson tier Newton: $20.8M: signed in 2015 Dalton: $16M: signed in 2014 Brady $15M: took an INSANELY team friendly deal surely influenced in no small way by the fact that he and his wife collectively have a $580 MILLION DOLLAR NET WORTH Here’s reality: Mitch is already more accomplished than Garoppolo (27.5M AAV signed in 2018) and at least as accomplished as Carr ($25M AAV signed in 2017). Because of that the 2020 inflation-adjusted AAV for their deals is the absolute floor AAV for Mitch assuming he improves exactly zero from where he is now. Signing a deal in your range would make him literally the lowest paid starting QB not on a rookie deal or in a role as a bridge QB. By the time next offseason rolls around after new contracts for Rivers and Goff we’re gonna be lucky to get him at Wentz’s numbers with even the smallest of continued growth in a period where almost all QBs even those far less naturally gifted are expected to experience at least some improvement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: Sure, 5 years ago. Those are absolute pipe dream numbers in the present day QB market. There are currently 19 NFL QBs making at least $15M annually, and 14 at $22M or more. Of those 14 contracts at $22M+ only 3 weren’t signed at least 2 years ago: Cousins (whose deal is 100% guaranteed), Brees (who is 40) and Foles. Here are the 5 guys between $15M and $22M: Manning $21M: signed in 2015 Rivers $20.8M: signed in 2015 and working toward an extension likely in the Rodgers/Wilson tier Newton: $20.8M: signed in 2015 Dalton: $16M: signed in 2014 Brady $15M: took an INSANELY team friendly deal surely influenced in no small way by the fact that he and his wife collectively have a $580 MILLION DOLLAR NET WORTH Here’s reality: Mitch is already more accomplished than Garoppolo (27.5M AAV signed in 2018) and at least as accomplished as Carr ($25M AAV signed in 2017). Because of that the 2020 inflation-adjusted AAV for their deals is the absolute floor AAV for Mitch assuming he improves exactly zero from where he is now. Signing a deal in your range would make him literally the lowest paid starting QB not on a rookie deal or in a role as a bridge QB. By the time next offseason rolls around after new contracts for Rivers and Goff we’re gonna be lucky to get him at Wentz’s numbers with even the smallest of continued growth in a period where almost all QBs even those far less naturally gifted are expected to experience at least some improvement. Aside from all that, do you think he'll do it for less than 20? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) $20 mil AAV and free Lou Malnati's deep dish for life? Good points AZ. While I can see Mitch going a bit easier on an initial extension that allows Pace to keep his supporting cast and defense strong any deal will still have to be competitive with other top QB deals. His agent will have a fiduciary obligation to negotiate for from that stand point. He and Wentz share the same agent so I have to figure any deal we make will be somewhere in that same neighborhood as Wentz. Edited June 19, 2019 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 On 6/18/2019 at 2:07 AM, soulman said: Not accurate Windy. If an extension is agreed to prior to the 5th year there is no 5th year option salary period. In Wentz case the remainder of his rookie contract is combined with the extension. That's why his cap hit for the signing bonus is much higher this year. It includes the remainder of his rookie guarantee. The same would be true if Mitch's extension takes place in 2020 as opposed to 2021, his 5th season. Look at Leonard Floyd. We exercised his 5th year option at a cost of $13.22 mil for 2020. If Pace extends his deal beginning in 2020 that goes away and is replaced by whatever the terms of his new deal call for. Typically he'll receive a large signing bonus that will equal or exceed that amount but can be amortized over the life of that contract, 4-5 years, and a minimal salary. For example. Let's say it's a 5 year extension for $60 mil w/$30 mil gtd and a $15 mil signing bonus and a 2020 salary of $1 mil. The 2020 cap hit will be 1/5 of $15 mil = $3 mil plus $1 mil in salary = $4 mil total. So roughly 20% of the cost of a one year option and 25% of the deals AAV. Salary increases and likely roster bonuses will make up the balance of the $30 mil in ensuing years. I'm not saying this is what he will get. It's only an example but my point is there is no 5th year option if an extension is agreed to prior to that season. What Pace and Laine choose to do with Mitch is up to them. I'm not gonna try to predict it now since both Whitehair and Floyd seem to be "next man up" as far as extensions go and a new CBA will impact Mitch and others like Cohen and Jackson. Then why is Wentz now signed for 6 years and not 5? 4th year 5th year option year 4 year extension 6 year total deal. Khalil Mack last season 5th year option: 13.5 million 6 year extension: 6 years 141 million Total deal: 7 years 155 million https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/khalil-mack-14414/ That 5th year will get folded in to the terms of the new deal, which helps the team because it is often cheaper than the extension, but the year does not disappear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Todd Gurley 4 year extension-5 year deal Mike Evans 5 year extension-6 year deal Zack Martin 6 year extension-7 year deal The 5th year option just gets folded into the grand total of the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 So if Mitch has a 5th year option worth 23 million and the Bears sign him to a 5 year 150 million dollar extension they essentially have a deal worth 6 years 173 million to deal with and structure how they want. They can structure the 173 however they would like. They would make year 1 significantly lower than the option and choose to eat it on the back end. Based on the Mack deal we will see about 33% of guarantees in signing bonuses and then large roster bonuses when the signing bonuses hits have dissipated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) Windy, all I'm saying is the 5th year option salary is replaced by whatever terms are agreed upon in the extension. That was my point. If a player is extended with two years remaining on his contract whatever guarantees that initial contract has will be wrapped into the extension which is why Wentz current cap hit for his signing bonus is roughly double that of the remaining years. Any guaranteed roster bonus or salary would also be wrapped into the extension. New money is being added to old money. All of Floyd's rookie guaranteed money ($15.334 mil=old money) will have been paid out by the end of 2019. If Floyd agrees to an extension the 5th year option salary of $13.22 mil will not be part of his extension. It will be replaced by new money. Typically his signing bonus and/or year one roster bonus plus his first year salary the sum total of which would be far less than his 5th year option cost lowering his initial cap hit. A 5th year option guarantees each party something. The team retains control. A player cannot become a FA and if no agreement on an extension is reached he's guaranteed the 5th year option salary against any current or 2020 injuries only. If an extension is not agreed upon the team may trade him subject to those terms or they may rescind the option prior to the beginning of the new league year and the player will then become a UFA because his contract has expired. So there's a little in it for both sides but it is exactly what it's named. A revocable team option for a 5th year at a predetermined one year salary. Edited June 19, 2019 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/carson-wentz-18950/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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