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soulman

Projecting Cody Whitehair’s Coming Extension

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16 minutes ago, soulman said:

I'd just thought I'd add that we may finally have reached that stage where losing at least some higher cost vets in FA in favor of picking up compensatory picks will work in our favor especially with the skills Pace and his scouts have shown picking up younger talent in the middle rounds.

I'm wondering if NFL doesn't change that system soon.  It is helping good teams stay good and their goal is more parody.

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6 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I'm wondering if NFL doesn't change that system soon.  It is helping good teams stay good and their goal is more parody.

Ha ha, not if Belichick and Robt. Kraft can help it.

It is a sneakier way to get really good and stay that way.

The media circus has fans focused on big FA acquisitions and first round picks and no doubt that's where you shop for some "difference makers".  Guy who are a cut above their teammates at their position and become perennial Pro Bowlers.

But there's 22 guys on offense and defense and only a handful fit that description and are affordable.  The rest of the core are guy you sign cheaper and draft later who ascend to become more than they cost you.  Pace has become quite good at finding guys like that both in FA and the draft.

There's also the benefit of having those extra picks to use to make trades for a pick you badly want and allowing team to now trade compensatory picks as well as if anything made the rules even more liberal so I'm not seeing anything yet that tells me they'll change the rules or do away with this.

I don't believe the NFLPA would favor a change either.  Allowing teams to be compensated when a pricey FA leaves makes it easier for that team to allow a player to become a UFA.  It's possible we may see this happen with Floyd if they can't reach and agreement on an extension.

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The Bears need to get Whitehair done over the summer. They can use 2019 as leverage and hopefully get him done around the 10 million mark, rather than letting the market go crazy for him.

Extension: 4 years 42 million/25 guaranteed [Higher guarantee, lower base]

Existing: 1 year 1.5 million

Total deal: 5 years 43.5 million/25 guaranteed

Just under 9 average seems reasonable for everyone involved.

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On 6/24/2019 at 10:35 AM, dll2000 said:

I'm wondering if NFL doesn't change that system soon.  It is helping good teams stay good and their goal is more parody.

They should keep it, but lower everything by a round.

3rd round picks are too high.

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I think Cohen gets extended, but at the expense of money at WR more than RB.

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I expect Whitehair's extension to come this summer following a pattern similar to what Pace has done with other core players in the past.

As for Cohen vs WR cap space one reason I'll be watching the ongoing development of guys like Miller, Ridley, Wims, and even Emmanuel Hall so closely is I suspect Pace has loaded up on WRs hoping one will emerge as a #1 who can replace ARob.  So I tend to agree it's very possible that's where money for Cohen may come from.

The way we spread the ball around in this scheme it's hard to justify paying just one WR so much more than others and if ARob is at $15 mil AAV now what will an extension cost.  I'm not looking to let him go but the reality is some higher priced vets will have to.

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34 minutes ago, soulman said:

I expect Whitehair's extension to come this summer following a pattern similar to what Pace has done with other core players in the past.

As for Cohen vs WR cap space one reason I'll be watching the ongoing development of guys like Miller, Ridley, Wims, and even Emmanuel Hall so closely is I suspect Pace has loaded up on WRs hoping one will emerge as a #1 who can replace ARob.  So I tend to agree it's very possible that's where money for Cohen may come from.

The way we spread the ball around in this scheme it's hard to justify paying just one WR so much more than others and if ARob is at $15 mil AAV now what will an extension cost.  I'm not looking to let him go but the reality is some higher priced vets will have to.

Agreed. I could see Robinson not being re-signed and that money being split between Cohen and Miller when he is extension eligible.

To justify a 15 million + WR he needs to be a the focal point of the offense.

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On 6/26/2019 at 10:51 AM, WindyCity said:

Agreed. I could see Robinson not being re-signed and that money being split between Cohen and Miller when he is extension eligible.

To justify a 15 million + WR he needs to be a the focal point of the offense.

FWIW Robinson came into last year getting only a few weeks worth of TC reps and a half speed preseason game with Mitch prior to week 1 coming off of his ACL tear and was still our best WR in 2018. He gets a full offseason and knows the scheme now.

I don’t know that he’s going to have to be the focal point for our offense but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him throw a 85/1200/10 season out there in 2019 either. Also, most of us are expecting a significant step from Miller in 2019 (myself included) but that needs to actually happen before we assume AR12 may not be long for Chicago too. Robinson has obvious WR1 traits, has had success in the role and is still only entering his age 26 season despite already being a 6th year pro. Miller and Ridley may well max out as guys far better suited to be complementary receivers, where that’s Robinson’s floor. Gabriel if he’s here beyond 2019 is almost certainly only ever going to be a complementary player because of his stature, and really, so is Cohen. 

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On 2019-07-01 at 9:44 PM, AZBearsFan said:

FWIW Robinson came into last year getting only a few weeks worth of TC reps and a half speed preseason game with Mitch prior to week 1 coming off of his ACL tear and was still our best WR in 2018. He gets a full offseason and knows the scheme now.

I don’t know that he’s going to have to be the focal point for our offense but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him throw a 85/1200/10 season out there in 2019 either. Also, most of us are expecting a significant step from Miller in 2019 (myself included) but that needs to actually happen before we assume AR12 may not be long for Chicago too. Robinson has obvious WR1 traits, has had success in the role and is still only entering his age 26 season despite already being a 6th year pro. Miller and Ridley may well max out as guys far better suited to be complementary receivers, where that’s Robinson’s floor. Gabriel if he’s here beyond 2019 is almost certainly only ever going to be a complementary player because of his stature, and really, so is Cohen. 

I don’t doubt his talent.

I doubt that he is ever targeted enough to justify a 15/season salary when guys like Wims or Ridley may present a more significant value for a position that may only catch 75-80 balls.

The question will become is Robinson 14.5 million dollars better than the next guy.

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8 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I don’t doubt his talent.

I doubt that he is ever targeted enough to justify a 15/season salary when guys like Wims or Ridley may present a more significant value for a position that may only catch 75-80 balls.

The question will become is Robinson 14.5 million dollars better than the next guy.

“Only 75-80 balls” would have put him somewhere between 14th to 19th in the league in terms of WR receptions in 2018, and Robinson’s $14M per currently ranks as the 13th highest AAV in the league, so if that’s his production then he’ll be making right at his fair market rate. If Wims or Ridley blow up right away then sure Robinson becomes expendable or at least more expendable after this season, but the far greater likelihood is that they are no higher than 4th on our depth chart in 2019 outside of injury and get only limited run on offense to show that they can sufficiently replace the production of an actual established #1 WR. Only 14 teams had a WR with 75+ catches last year (a few had more than one) - that kind of output shouldn’t be taken for granted at all IMO. 

If I were to wager on it as of right now I think it’s far more likely that Robinson’s 2020 cap hit is reduced significantly as part of a long extension after 2019 than that he’s shown the door. He’s still going to be only 27 in 2020 despite being 6 seasons in. Converting his last year of his deal into part of a new 5 or 6 year deal with significant guarantees for the first 2-3 years is entirely within the realm of reality. 

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8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

“Only 75-80 balls” would have put him somewhere between 14th to 19th in the league in terms of WR receptions in 2018, and Robinson’s $14M per currently ranks as the 13th highest AAV in the league, so if that’s his production then he’ll be making right at his fair market rate. If Wims or Ridley blow up right away then sure Robinson becomes expendable or at least more expendable after this season, but the far greater likelihood is that they are no higher than 4th on our depth chart in 2019 outside of injury and get only limited run on offense to show that they can sufficiently replace the production of an actual established #1 WR. Only 14 teams had a WR with 75+ catches last year (a few had more than one) - that kind of output shouldn’t be taken for granted at all IMO. 

If I were to wager on it as of right now I think it’s far more likely that Robinson’s 2020 cap hit is reduced significantly as part of a long extension after 2019 than that he’s shown the door. He’s still going to be only 27 in 2020 despite being 6 seasons in. Converting his last year of his deal into part of a new 5 or 6 year deal with significant guarantees for the first 2-3 years is entirely within the realm of reality. 

I think an extension is more likely.

But fair market value and what the team can afford are going to be very different things moving forward.

There are going to be some tough financial decisions and in Robinson’s case their appears to be legit talent behind him and at this point his role in the offense is not big enough to warrant huge money. We can’t rule out the possibility that they will save money at WR, especially if Miller takes a step this season.

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10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

If I were to wager on it as of right now I think it’s far more likely that Robinson’s 2020 cap hit is reduced significantly as part of a long extension after 2019 than that he’s shown the door. He’s still going to be only 27 in 2020 despite being 6 seasons in. Converting his last year of his deal into part of a new 5 or 6 year deal with significant guarantees for the first 2-3 years is entirely within the realm of reality. 

I could more easily see this happening than allowing him to leave as a FA.

One thing is certain with nearly every QB in every offense.  They all have a certain WR in whom they have the most trust and want to go to when a game is on the line.  Rodgers had that with Jordy Nelson and others before him.  Nelson left before Rodgers had developed that same confidence with another and the offense stumbled a bit.

By the end of 2019 it sure looked to me like ARob was becoming that guy for Mitch.  If that continues it will be tough to undo so you find a way to keep him even if it means sacrificing elsewhere but ARob has to score more than he has as well.  I'll be looking for more of that this year as the offense adds more dimension and Mitch gets more accurate downfield.

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10 hours ago, WindyCity said:

There are going to be some tough financial decisions and in Robinson’s case their appears to be legit talent behind him and at this point his role in the offense is not big enough to warrant huge money. We can’t rule out the possibility that they will save money at WR, especially if Miller takes a step this season.

I don’t disagree, but to me that’s far more likely to be Gabriel because he’s a complementary piece. Robinson isn’t, plus the rest of the WR besides Gabriel and Robinson are all making basically the minimum. Same for TE except Burton and RB except Davis (who is probably unlikely to be here at his projected 2020 salary if Montgomery is legit). I look at this like the Blackhawks. When they had to pay 19 and 88 they had to dump salary big time, but that wasn’t the top guys - it was multiple guys in that next tier. Byfuglien to keep Keith. Hjalmarsson over Niemi. Ladd to keep Sharp. A year later Campbell to keep Seabrook. It’s WAYYYYY easier to replace your #2 WR than your #1. We already have at least 2 legitimate candidates who could conceivably be our #2 over Gabriel this year. Hell, absent injury last year Miller may have already been our #2 last year at least talent wise. Projecting either Ridley or Wims to replace Robinson is much more of a stretch than Miller and Ridley bumping up a spot. 

Even if Mitch takes a HUGE step this year they’re not going to then turn around and go full blown bargain basement for his weapons though. I’d be SHOCKED. 

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