Goldfish's Slightly Too Early 2019 Season Predictions - All 32 up

[Elky]

5 hours ago, tom cody said:

I think the Chiefs will still be good in 2019 but Mahomes is going to take a step back this year from what he did last year.

Well, duh. Can't expect someone to do 5k+/50+ every year. He's still the best QB in football right now.

[Jakuvious]

10 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Why though? I keep seeing this sentiment expressed without much reasoning behind it. Having Hill on the field changes everything a defense does, makes them way less risk adverse and able to divert resources elsewhere. We haven’t seen how a Mahomes led-offense operates without him. I still think it’ll be a good offense, but with Hill on the field they managed to outscore teams despite fielding a 31st ranked defense in the league. I don't see anything they did over the off-season which tells me that defense is going to be exponentially better as they merely focussed their energies on getting guys that fit Spag’s system rather than improving the personnel. And if your answer is ‘Spag’ is better than Sutton, then cool. But remember Spag’s defensive rankings over his last seven seasons as a coordinator are 29,19,22,32,32,10,31. 

We could score 100 fewer points than we did last year and still field a top 5 scoring offense. That's why many still feel the offense could be elite without him.

[candyman93]

Love reading this.

[Dr LBC]

39 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

We could score 100 fewer points than we did last year and still field a top 5 scoring offense. That's why many still feel the offense could be elite without him.

Not necessarily true.  You could field a Top 5 scoring offense for last year... in a year where several of the more recent regulars in the Top 5 scoring offenses had down years.  Neither of us have any way of knowing whether those other offenses (which unless you're playing them, the Chiefs have squat to do with whether they do or not) rebound or not.  If they do, then no, your no shoe-in to be a top 5 offense if you score 100 fewer points than last year.

[Thomas5737]

11 minutes ago, The LBC said:

Not necessarily true.  You could field a Top 5 scoring offense for last year... in a year where several of the more recent regulars in the Top 5 scoring offenses had down years.  Neither of us have any way of knowing whether those other offenses (which unless you're playing them, the Chiefs have squat to do with whether they do or not) rebound or not.  If they do, then no, your no shoe-in to be a top 5 offense if you score 100 fewer points than last year.

Well, they could score 100 fewer points and be a top 5 offense, which is what he said. Offenses from multiple years ago don't necessarily rebound in the future the roster is likely somewhat different on many teams.

[Jakuvious]

2 hours ago, The LBC said:

Not necessarily true.  You could field a Top 5 scoring offense for last year... in a year where several of the more recent regulars in the Top 5 scoring offenses had down years.  Neither of us have any way of knowing whether those other offenses (which unless you're playing them, the Chiefs have squat to do with whether they do or not) rebound or not.  If they do, then no, your no shoe-in to be a top 5 offense if you score 100 fewer points than last year.

First of all, I never meant to suggest something that definitive. I said, we COULD score 100 points fewer and still be a top 5 offense. That is an absolutely true fact. It is perfectly possible.

And for the record, INCREDIBLY likely. There has been one year in NFL history in which 5 teams have scored more than 465 points. In 2014, 465 points would've put us as the 6th best scoring offense, behind 4th and 5th by about 3 points. Every other single year in NFL history, we would be a top 5 scoring offense with 100 fewer points scored than the 565 that we scored last year. So it isn't just because some top offense's had injuries last year, or something. This isn't some 2018-only point that I'm making here or anything. We could literally lose the entirety of Hill's scoring from last year, and then some, and (odds are) be a top 5 scoring O. We can have an elite O with a huge scoring drop off from last year.

Also....what recent regulars had down years last year anyways? At least, that would impact this kind of stat, anyway? The only teams that have scored that many points in the past three years are the Saints, Chiefs, Rams, and Falcons. And three of those teams did last year. You go back further than 3 years and you get to teams like Arizona (with Palmer), Denver (with Manning), and Dallas (with Romo), so I don't think you mean those.

I just get the feeling you posted this reply to me without realizing how many points 100 less than what we scored last year actually is. This isn't something that like Pittsburgh and Green Bay and New England have been hitting annually, or something. 465 points would still be the 51st most in NFL history. Our year last year was substantial enough that a serious offensive drop off could still be elite. That's my point.

[goldfishwars]

13. Baltimore Ravens

What’s New in 2019:

Marty Mornhinweg was fired after a disaster playoff performance and replaced by Greg Roman. Roman is obviously best known for his work at the 49ers, particularly with Colin Kaepernick. Earl Thomas was a surprise move for a player who looked destined to land in Dallas, it’ll be interesting to see what he has left after his injury. Similarly, Mark Ingram comes over from New Orleans after a long and fruitful career there, mostly in a job share. Those two could be key signings and the Ravens rounded off their off-season with a really fascinating draft haul headlined by Marquise Brown who might have an important role to play as a rookie. 

Roster Strengths:

Defensive Line – Brandon Williams has cemented himself as one of the game’s best run defenders and Michael Pierce isn’t far behind on that front, even if he’s experienced some off-season issues. The Ravens have lost some players, but they’re still incredibly deep at all spots with Chris Wormley, Pernell McPhee, Willie Henry and new rookie Daylon Mack pushing for playing time.

Secondary – The Ravens run four deep at corner with Carr-Humphrey-Smith-Young and also have Athony Averett and Cyrus Jones on the roster. It’s the deepest crop in the league. At safety, Earl Thomas was a huge pick-up in FA and he replaces Eric Weddle alongside the very competent Tony Jefferson who does his best work close to the line.      

Tight End - The Ravens always invest heavily at this position and can rotate through Hayden Hurst, Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle. Andrews could be the surprise of that trio 2019.            

Elsewhere – Running back is well stocked with blunt objects Mark Ingram and last year’s surprise find Gus Edwards, they also drafted rookie Justice Hill who offers some playmaking ability as a receiver and runner. Tight end is well stocked, Marshall Yanda always deserves a mention and there has been a real effort to inject some playmakers at wide receiver via the draft

Roster Weaknesses:

Interior Offensive Line – Matt Skura is slightly under par and Alex Lewis has not been good at left guard. Recent draft picks Brad Bozeman and Ben Powers might help, but those were modest investments

Inside Linebacker – It’s not the vintage position of old on the current Ravens roster with the fairly low ceiling partnership of Kenny Young and Patrick Onwuasor slated to fill the void of CJ Mosely’s departure.

Edge – Terrell Suggs was the sack fetcher in Baltimore for over a decade and his main running partner in recent seasons Za’Darius Smith has also left. The Ravens will rely on a rotation of Matt Judon, who has been a nice surprise for a 5^th round draft pick, Tyus Bowser who hasn’t shown much since he was drafted in 2017, Shane Ray who comes over from Denver after an up and down career there, Tim Williams who has shown little in his two seasons and new rookie Jaylon Ferguson who does his best work when his ankles aren’t heavily involved.

Breakout Player:

Lamar Jackson – Jackson’s play helped elevate the Ravens to an unlikely winning run last season, working in an offense which was still catered to Joe Flacco. This year, they are putting all of their eggs into his basket to ensure he gets what he needs. Jackson is not a conventional player at the quarterback position, but has rare gifts as a runner and this season has an offensive coordinator who knows how to play to his strengths and some dynamic weapons to throw to.

How they can win in 2019:

Last year’s playoff defeat to the Chargers is a good yard stick for the offense because teams will use that defensive set-up as a blueprint until the Ravens can find the answers to it. It’s not fair to lay that defeat at Lamar Jackson’s door, but he has to improve as a passer and for that improvement to come the offense has to be more dynamic around him. And it should be, based on the coaching changes made and the skill-players acquired in the off-season. Speed on the outside is crucial, because that forces the safeties on their heels (providing Jackson can hit those big plays when it’s on) and opens up running lanes underneath. New draft pick Marquise Brown is electric and could be crucial to opening, but it'll all be for nothing if Lamar cannot regularly hit guys over the top. 

On defense, last year’s number 1 ranked team have lost a little of their identity but there’s no reason why they cannot remain dominant in 2019. It's not immediately clear who will emerge on the pass-rush front, it could be a team effort, but they'll stumble into pressure and sacks based on tight coverage on the back end which could be water tight. Replacements have been groomed within this roster for a couple of years in some cases and now it’s their turn for the spotlight, that’s the Ravens model. And if anything has been lost in terms of leadership on the field, having a still reasonably young future hall of fame safety come in should help on that front. Bottom line is that's going to be difficult for teams to run and pass on this defense next year. 

Predicted record 2019:

9-7 I think the Ravens can the playoffs again and if they can find the key to the explosive elements on their offense, this could be a big year for them. But there will be some bumps along the way. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by goldfishwars

[goldfishwars]

5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

We could score 100 fewer points than we did last year and still field a top 5 scoring offense. That's why many still feel the offense could be elite without him.

And how many games would you have won last year with 100 less points? My point wasn't that the offense goes from good to bad, that it goes from elite to top five and whether that is enough to cover up what happens on the defensive side. 

[FalconFan13]

I have no problems with the Falcons being ranked 15th or the 8-8 record.  Although i like most others on here think that the team i represent will do better than that lol. But can see why others want to see it proven and be healthy to make it happen.  

The 1 thing i absolutely do have a problem with that you were wrong on is saying Matt Ryan had a down year in 2018 compared to better seasons in 2016 and 2017.    2017 was not a very good year for Ryan with a 91 rating and 20 td's to 12 int's.  But honestly that whole offense was bad under Sarks 1st year compared to what we normally are.    In 2018 Ryan had one of the best years of his career right there with the 2016 MVP season.  He had pretty much  the same amount of total TD's, yards,, completion %,  and the same amount of Int's in 2018 as he had in 2016.  To me he overall played last year than in 2016 considering he had the same caliber MVP numbers last year he had in 2016 with much less help from the play caller Sark instead of Shannan, With a worse O-line, and a worse RB setup and a worse Defense to help him out.

Edited July 5, 2019 by FalconFan13

[Jakuvious]

26 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

And how many games would you have won last year with 100 less points? My point wasn't that the offense goes from good to bad, that it goes from elite to top five and whether that is enough to cover up what happens on the defensive side. 

Tough to say. In pythagorean wins it drops us down to 9, if you like that stat. Though it's likely that scoring that many points fewer leads to us allowing a chunk fewer too. If we stall at, say, 30 points against the Rams in the 4th quarter, they may have no need for those last two touchdowns. Run out the clock instead of passing down the field. Similar story with New England. Those kinds of games only see point totals that high because both teams keep going. Or we could've scored 20 points less in blowouts each against, say, Oakland and Cincy, and it wouldn't have mattered. I still think we'd sit at about 10 wins there.

But we weren't talking about KC's record. The bold wasn't your point at all. This was the quote chain:

Quote

Hill is obviously an important player for the offense but this offense even without him all season is still absolutely an elite offense. 

Quote

Why though? I keep seeing this sentiment expressed without much reasoning behind it. Having Hill on the field changes everything a defense does, makes them way less risk adverse and able to divert resources elsewhere.

You were absolutely just responding asking why anyone would think KC's offense would still be elite without Hill. Now you're saying they could be, just not elite enough which is a very different argument. Last year's offense certainly doesn't carry us to 12 wins scoring 100 less points or going without Hill. But Buckweath's statement was that the offense would still be elite without him. And that, IMO, is accurate, and is why I was talking about where we rank with that large dropoff in points for. We can talk about wins instead, though that gets into far more than just the offense. Like Boltstrikes suggested on the last page, more points means opposing team's playing more aggressive and aiming to score more. So that big of a point dropoff likely means a lighter load for the defense. How light, I don't know. But again, none of this is what you were replying to, when I replied to you. You replied to a post saying the O could still be elite without Hill, and saying there's no reasoning behind it. There is.

[Danand]

I believe the Ravens are ranked at little too high, which is due to a tough schedule where week 3-12 is especially rough. While I do agree that Lamar and the offense has a lot to prove, I believe the criticism towards him as a QB is overblown. While he sometimes had some wild errant throws, he also avoided pressure and sacks that would have buried the offense, and instead found ways to convert key downs with both his arm and legs. Too many neglect that Lamar was able to convert and keep the offense alive in situations, where Rosen, Darnold and others would have been sacked.

The playoff game is a bad game to judge Lamar as the Ravens offensive line was manhandled in that game. The Chargers blew up the running game and had a very efficient pass rush, which most QB's would have struggled with. 

That directs me to one of your points regarding the oline, because we have some big questions imo on that line that needs fixing. While Stanley, Yanda and Brown are great players, Skura, Lewis, Hurst, Bozeman never managed to prove they are more than average. Especially the LG spot is up for grabs, but I wouldn’t be surprised of also Skura could lose his spot.

Depending on who you ask, the Ravens could be counted among the teams with the worst receiving group in the league – which is mostly due to us having one proven veteran/player in Willie Snead. Chris Moore showed glimpses and has some speed to do some damage, but besides those two, all our receiving options are rookies or second year players. I believe the Ravens will field the receiving group with the absolute least combined yards in the NFL.

While Snead and Moore are locks, Brown, Boykin, Lasley, Scott are the most likely to make the roster and none of them have played in an NFL game. Andrews might be the biggest receiving threat and hopes is Hurst with a healthy TC can become a bigger part of the offense.

Lamar had a combined 2000 yard season on the air and ground, and in the last 7 games he started, he had a combined 1680 yards, 10 TD's and 3 interceptions and 10 fumbles. It should be noted, that all fumbles in hand off exchanges counts as Lamars although it could be the runningback who made the wrong read/decision. The biggest issue here is obviously the fumbles and the unnecessary hits he took last year.

With a decent group of running backs and a blocking tight end in Nick Boyle and Greg Roman as DC I believe the Ravens run game should be fine.

Several Ravens fans hope we spread out the field with more receivers and tight ends, which should give Lamar more room to run and find receivers on scrambles/roll outs.

Imo the Ravens issues on defense are overblown. The biggest losses will be Suggs from a leadership standpoint and Zadarius Smith’s production.

At inside linebacker the Ravens are confident they have a great young group in Young, Peanut and Board who all play faster than Mosley – but will have to prove themselves. The Ravens secondary is among the strongest in the league, which lead to the pass rush. The fat guys in the middle can stop the run and Urban could be replaced by a Wormley or a Sieler who proves some more upside.

The pass rush is where the Ravens have to figure out what to do, and I believe you are right about it being a sack committee as none of the players seem to be primed for a breakout season. A breakout season would come from out of the blue.

Martindale did a much better job as a DC in his first year than many expected, and also learned from game to game. For example he chose to be conservative to hold a lead against the Chiefs and the Ravens lost because Mahomes/Hill was insane, and against the Browns to hold the lead he dialed up pressure.

That was a huge relief for many of us, as we was used to Dean Pees defense that blew leads after leads late in games because he called a conservative game.

Something that should be noted is that Ravens lost special teams coordinator Jerry Rosburg. He has coached one of the best units in his years with the Ravens. It will be interesting to see if new ST coach Chris Horton can coach to the level of Rosburg.

[berlin calling]

very fair evaluation, gj. next time you might want to add Tucker though as he will remain a big contributor to the offense.

[DreamKid]

Fair assessment of the Ravens, you have a good grasp of their roster for being a non fan. With so much turnover and so many young/unproven players stepping up in 2019. There really isn't much more faith we can demand of early rankings such as these.

This is the only take I'd disagree with-

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

Inside Linebacker – It’s not the vintage position of old on the current Ravens roster with the fairly low ceiling partnership of Kenny Young and Patrick Onwuasor slated to fill the void of CJ Mosely’s departure.

Both are young, athletic, and from a modern off ball LB perspective- they excel in every area you want. I see no reason to put a cap on their potential. Young was a Rookie revelation for us last year, and Peanut was a safety convert that had the light come on for him in a big way in year 2 as a starter. There's still so much room for growth. They can mirror backs & Tight Ends, disrupt passing windows, and both are monster blitz pieces that rack up pressures. I have no issues with them against the run either. Big time range for both of them, and Young especially consistently flashes as a backfield play maker. 

They are unproven as season to season forces, sure. I don't feel comfortable slapping that low ceiling label on them though. 

As always, I appreciate the work you put into these projects. 

[goldfishwars]

16 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

They are unproven as season to season forces, sure. I don't feel comfortable slapping that low ceiling label on them though. 

 

That’s fair, perhaps low-expectations (fair or not) in line with their experience and resume?

 

[DreamKid]

3 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

That’s fair, perhaps low-expectations (fair or not) in line with their experience and resume?

 

Yea, that's a perfectly reasonable position.