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Goldfish's Slightly Too Early 2019 Season Predictions - All 32 up


goldfishwars

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11 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

22. Houston Texans

Predicted record 2019:

7-9 – The Texans have a very hard schedule in 2019 and there are just too many questions that need answering to expect a better return than this at this point. Still they've exceed low expectations before, but from top to bottom this is not a well-balanced roster. 

I want to find a way to argue this, bit I really can't - in fact, I think you're a bit generous at times (the secondary is so bad it should be called a fourthary, to be blunt). 

We're nearly a month since the whole Brian Gaine debacle and it's still a confusing debacle to me - and it's a sign that those making the decisions in Houston really don't understand how decisions like this are supposed to work. From what I've heard, Gaine struck out on every major move he was looking to make - the death knells were the misses on OT Trent Brown and OG Roger Saffold, two guys who would would have projected to become starters and represent a significant improvement on a unit desperate for improvement.

It's not that Gaine lost, it's HOW he lost: He basically faxed over contract offers, didn't even try to sell up the city of Houston (rabid fan base who will show up no matter what, no state income tax, affordable cost of living, etc) or the upside of the Texans franchise (young franchise QB, generational defensive talent, etc). Landing FAs is more than pushing out the most money (which Gaine didn't do as well, despite having an excess in cap space) but in selling a city and a vision. If you have a vision you believe in, it's hard NOT to sell it - it should be overflowing in everything you do. From all accounts, Gaine didn't have that vision to sell.

This being said, don't fire the guy with very little deliberation on what to do, or without fully vetting out your next guy (and his contract situation). That's bush league... and bush league is reserved for that flag football league at the Y, not the highest level of the sport.

Outside of that boondoggle - the Texans aren't much different than the team we saw last season. Questions at OL, secondary that lacks any sort of football IQ, really strong front seven and a QB/WR combo that is best in the league. That team was good for 11-5, but the division and schedule have taken a jump up in difficulty. Jacksonville should be able to get some more juice out of that offense with Nick Foles in the mix, and the Titans are finally at a spot to make a decision on Marcus Mariota (as well as a contingency plan to move on from him in the short term with Ryan Tannehill in the wings). Best case scenario, the Texans will be fighting for a WC and watching the Colts take the top spot in the AFCS. Worst case scenario, they have a completely disasterous season in and out of the division, Bill O'Brien/Jack Easterby are fired and a new HC/GM are brought in to build around a pretty talented roster, with loads of cap space at their disposal. (Maybe we look to emulate the Seattle model this time - we tried Denver South with Kubiak, tried Foxboro South with O'Brien - Seattle South actually sounds pretty cool).

One interesting thing I'll add:

Not enough news was made over the Texans hiring QB coach Carl Smith from Seattle. Smith has been working with Russell Wilson for Wilson's entire career and could be credited with a lot of Wilson's success. (Not ALL of it - Wilson is a talented QB with several tools at his disposal, tools that are similar to what Deshaun Watson has at his disposal). Those who watch Wilson know, his situation wasn't too different than what Deshaun Watson has to deal with - the OL isn't good, Wilson has to find escape routes and create passing lanes while avoiding a relentless pass rush. Wilson did that as well as any QB in the league has ever done...and we're going to see if Watson can do the same.

If the Texans are going to succeed, it's going to be on Watson - and the QB coach who built up Wilson is a good start to helping Watson succeed.

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21. Washington Redskins

Image result for haskins redskins

What’s New in 2019:

Former Patriots legend Kevin O’Connell becomes the new OC after two seasons as the team’s quarterbacks coach Landon Collins was the team’s big FA splash move. Ereck Flowers was signed to 'help' the offensive line and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was picked-up to help bolster the secondary. A whole new franchise quarterback to call their very own in Dwayne Haskins via the draft. Washington navigated yet another weird power struggle at the top, to somehow land one of the league’s best rookie classes.

Roster Strengths:

Defensive line – Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne and Matt Ioannidis has a real nice mix of power and disruption to it

Edge – Preston Smith has eloped to Green Bay, but the team still have Ryan Kerrigan who has put together one of the quietest fringe HOF caliber careers you’ll ever see. Last year’s 2nd rounder Ryan Anderson is stout presence on the edge and new 1st round pick Montez Sweat could be an absolute steal where at where he landed.

Elsewhere – The secondary has some bright spots in Josh Norman and FA signing Landon Collins, with some intriguing names at corner who may emerge. Running back too has plenty of talent, albeit viewed through a blurry lens with Adrian Peterson’s rising age and the health concerns around Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson.

Roster Weaknesses:

Middle Linebacker – With no Reuben Foster for 2019, they’ll be searching for starters amongst Mason Foster who has been serviceable (at best) and then you have well-travelled, but not well-liked Jon Bostic and recent later round picks Shaun Dion Hamilton and Josh Harvey-Clemons. Dion Hamilton is probably the most intriguing of that trio.

Free Safety – There’s a bit of a vacancy at free safety in the wake of DJ Swearinger’s departure.

Left guard – Ereck Flowers is pencilled in at this spot currently, which cannot be ideal. Internally they might be hoping rookie Wes Martin can beat him out.

Elsewhere – It’s worth mentioning the Trent Williams situation, because if that’s not settled they potentially go from an all-pro to a back-up caliber player at left tackle in an instant

Breakout Player:

Derrius Guice – The 59th overall pick last year tore his ACL in preseason after a rocky draft season. He could be bring some real juice to the running back position if he can reach full health before the season starts.

How they can win in 2019:

One offense, Dwayne Haskins has to win the quarterback job and have earned the right to it. His ceiling far exceeds his veteran counterparts and can set the passing game alight if Jay Gruden and O’Connell can lay a sensible passing attack around him. A season of good health from Jordan Reed could really open the passing attack and there are young players who can emerge at receiver - finally. Getting good protection is important, because as was well noted during the draft process, Haskins isn’t the most mobile. Trent Williams is obviously hugely important for how this side of the ball performs in both facets and that's a big unknown right now. 

On defense, Manusky can field a very tough front five from snap to snap and that can become the identity of this whole team. Finding a combination that works at linebacker behind that group becomes important and that need to emerge. At cornerback, they just have to identify who their starting group is, obviously Josh Norman is fine on one side of the field. Rodgers-Cromartie could be pencilled in to play free safety according to early reports, which leaves Jimmy Moreland as someone who could be a real x-factor in the slot, but that’s a lot to ask for in year one from a small school 7th round pick and they already have some interesting names there.  Fabian Moreau has been okay as a starter and has space to grow, but needs to take a next step and Greg Stroman is small but has plenty to like.

Predicted record 2019:

7-9 – It could easily be a better year in Washington with a roster full of emerging talent and a favorable schedule, but there are a few too many questions about the shape of the offense to make a sunnier prediction

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20. Tennessee Titans

Image result for mariota titans

What’s New in 2019:

Former tight ends coach Arthur Smith takes over at OC, which isn’t traditionally a move that brings a lot of offensive innovations with it. Outside of that, the biggest off-season move was to bring in Ryan Tannehill to backup Mariota. Tannehill has only been a starter to this point and with Mariota’s health perennially up in the air, it would not be a surprise to see him log serious minutes there. Adam Humphries was also signed in FA to help out in slot duty and he turned down a big offer from the Patriots to do so. 

Roster Strengths:

Offensive Line – Lewan-Saffold-Jones-Davis(?)-Conklin is one very powerful looking unit, that’s a lot of beef to deal with

Safety – Kevin Byard has become one the game’s best players, let alone among safeties. Kenny Vaccarro bounced back with a solid year in Tennessee last season and they re-upped on him for 2019. Amani Hooker and Dane Cruikshank have also have roles to play this year.

Inside Linebacker – Jayon Brown was great last year alongside Wesley Woodyard and 1st round rookie Rashaan Evans came on well down the stretch.

Elsewhere – Jurrell Casey is still very much the jewel of that defensive line. Cameron Wake and Harold Landry feels like it could be a step-up at the edge spots if Wake still has it at 37 and Landry can take another step forward. Derrick Henry quietly accumulated 12 rushing touchdowns in 2018, he can find the end zone if nothing else. 

Roster Weaknesses:

Quarterback – One of the game’s great enigmas, we still really don’t know what we have with Marcus Mariota who is one of the hardest players to evaluate. He still has the talent to lead this team, but his health will play a big part in that.

Explosive Playmakers – It’s a pretty talented group of receivers, but a little one-paced. Corey Davis, AJ Brown and Adam Humphries might all do their best work inside from the slot and there’s an absence of a reliable deep threat and that could limit what they are able to do. Dion Lewis was outplayed in his first season as a Titan, but there’s not a lot of juice outside of him at running back. 

Breakout Player:

Rashaan Evans – Injuries slowed the first half of 2018, but he came on well down the stretch and gives the team some inside/outside flexibility with his ability to rush off the edge.

How they can win in 2019:

Really, of all teams in the league, this one comes down to the play at the quarterback position. Many things are in place for them to have another run at the playoffs and they have a head coach which will squeeze every breath of willing out of this team, but a full healthy season from Mariota is what they need more than anything else. They have an identify in the ground game and an offensive line who can bully their opponents if their starting unit can stay healthy. It's not such a good situation behind them and getting their receivers to mesh with each other will be key and become threats at all levels of the field. Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith might have roles to play as seem busters down the field to get that to work. 

On defense, they look more stout than dangerous. It would be good to see more threats emerging as an attacking defense outside of Casey, who is always disruptive. Landry needs to take a step forward as a starting outside pass-rusher and needs to improve as a run defender to stay as one. Hopefully the Titans can find a role for Cam Wake at his advanced age, even as a pass-rush specialist. The pass defense was pretty good last year, but they'll be facing some premium opposition quarterbacks this year and increased pressure up front can help the stay that way. 

Predicted record 2019:

7-9 - They could very well play better than last year’s playoff team with an improved roster, but it's still a one which could hit a ceiling hard this year with too many questions around the quarterback position and whether their new OC can be creative enough to keep defenses on the back foot without explosive playmakers at his disposal 

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19. Carolina Panthers

Image result for christian mccaffrey

What’s New in 2019:

The 2018 coaching staff remains as is at HC and the coordinator spots. Gerald McCoy was the big FA signing and flexible edge Brian Burns headlined a rookie class that I liked, others did not. Bruce Irvin also joins to try and get the edge play back to where it was.

Roster Strengths:

Quarterback – Obviously the health of Cam Newton is the big shadow over this team in 2019, the early reports are good which is encouraging. When he’s on his game, he’s still one of the most unplayable talents in the league.

Defensive Line – With the Panthers pledging to switch to more three man fronts, a group of Kawann Short, Gerald McCoy, Vernon Butler and Dontari Poe isn’t a bad bunch of names to be able to rotate through

Linebacker – Luke Kuechly is well on pace for a HOF career going into his 8th season and logged an encouraging 16 games last year after concussion issues in prior seasons. Shaq Thompson should finally get a full workload next to him and he’s still got space to grow.

Elsewhere – There’s not a lot around him, but Christian McCaffrey took a big next step in his second season and meshed well with his new OC to offer a different kind of bell cow option in the backfield.

Roster Weaknesses:

Wide Receiver – Outside of YAC specialist DJ Moore and similarly skilled Curtis Samuel - Jarius Wright, Torrey Smith and Chris Hogan are all threatening to log serious minutes. It’s not a particularly exciting group if Moore and Samuel can’t take on a full load between them.

Secondary – James Bradberry has been up and down at one corner spot and Donte Jackson allowed 52 receptions on 73 passes in his rookie season. New signing Ross Cockerell might have been a help, but he broke his leg two weeks ago. Kevon Seymour, Corn Elder and Luke Cole are next in line to log snaps. Eric Reid was solid at safety and returns for another year, but they need to find a regular to play alongside him.

Elsewhere – The offensive line talent is pretty thin behind the starters and that’s considering Greg Van Roten is pencilled in to start at left guard

Breakout Player:

Curtis Samuel – Was a gadget player from the slot or backfield at Ohio State, but showed something as an outside receiver down the stretch last year which was a surprising development. There’s no reason why that shouldn’t continue, unless they revert to type with other prototypical options available.

How they can win in 2019:

I mean, the health of Cam Newton and his re-modelled throwing action is front and center to their fortunes in 2019. That offense looked pretty good for the first few weeks of the season, once the chuckles surrounding Norv Turner’s hiring last year had died down. I guess getting back to that is where they need to be and Newton’s arm needs to not fall off again. Protecting him is paramount early on if they want to avoid any setbacks and the team have a new focal point in Christian McCafrey to help take away his workload. Similarly, if Greg Olsen who struggled with injuries last season, could bounce back from the verge of retirement that could be huge for this offense. Their better young players give the team some dynamism, but they aren’t conventional plug-in players, so they need a game plan to make the best use of what they do well. 

On defense, they can ride that front seven especially if the remodelled edge group in Irvin and the rookies Burns and Miller can get consistent pressure outside. That could be a really exciting development for this team and probably their best route to protecting a secondary which struggled in coverage last season. That whole group was largely maintained in 2019 an additional year of development is all that can be offered as a route to better days in 2019 if that pressure up front cannot dominate. 

Predicted record 2019:

8-8 Health (specifically Cam Newton's) and roster depth are concerns too big to confidently predict a playoff-run this year, but there’s certainly a path to that with the quality they have. 

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On 6/27/2019 at 1:51 PM, goldfishwars said:

5-11 -  I think the Jonah Williams injury is a death knell on their hopes for a bounceback year. There's just too many unknowns elsewhere. 

This is fair.  I'm not sure how the combination of Dalton + the current OL group can succeed much...

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