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Ragnarok

The 2014 Draft - How Did You Do?

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I was all over the place in this draft. My strongest opinions were either correct or not close.

My two favorite defenders were Donald and Shazier. They didn't look difficult. Defensive tackle is my favorite position. Donald reminded me of a smaller but more active version of some of the great Canes disruptors like Jerome Brown and Warren Sapp.

Shazier had awesome SPARQ numbers, and properly balanced as opposed to one extreme score shoving him to the top. I remember one guy who specialized in SPARQ posting on a Seahawks site that Shazier was almost guaranteed to boom given those numbers.

I thought Khalil Mack and Zack Martin were picked too high. I always use resume as a guideline above subjectivity. When a lower rated recruit like Mack is projected high in the first round, I am going to be a doubter every time. I don't care about the occasional instances where I'll be burned. The philosophy is sound. In picking that high I want someone who has always been ultra elite in relation to his peers.

Martin was a high rated recruit but he redshirted as a freshman. That is a red flag for me. College coaches should want their best athletes on the field immediately. When a player redshirts as a freshman without an injury excuse I am going to be dubious if he becomes a top rated draft prospect. As a Dolphins fan the best example was Ronnie Brown. Talk about stupidity. His resume was telling you he was never worth the second pick in any draft. Great running backs do not redshirt as freshman and spend 5 full years in college. That draft pick convinced me that Nick Saban needed 20-30 high swings per year. If you give him only one then he's error prone just like everyone else. 

I really liked Kyle Van Noy. He was my favorite second round pick and I don't consider that a miss. I loved him at BYU especially his junior season when he was responsible for takeaways of all description and was so instinctive not only while doing it but once he had the ball in his hands. I cringed when he was drafted by the Lions. That franchise seemed normal way back when they played on grass. Ever since they moved indoors it seems like where players go to underachieve and not even look like the same player. It is uncanny. I don't dislike the Lions. I just feel awful for anybody drafted by them. Maybe this new regime can finally establish some normalcy. I really think they need to go outdoors in the elements like the Packers and Bears. 

Van Noy resembling his college form with the Patriots may be the least surprising change in recent league history.

I liked Johnny Manziel, at least in comparison to Ryan Tannehill. I don't mind conceding that. By 2014 anything and anybody would have been preferable to Ryan Tannehill, the human spare. A Johnny Manziel type will let you know soon enough instead of wasting 7 years. 

I knew Manziel could only go to his left. I thought his personality issues were being overblown. Obviously that was a joke. Ryan Tannehill has an exponentially worse bland personality and robotic never-changing answers to every question. 

I was correct about Justin Gilbert as a flop. Draft a Big 12 defender that high. Be my guest. Notice where Big 12 defenders are being drafted these days, and how many of them are being drafted period. 

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1 hour ago, Awsi Dooger said:

Martin was a high rated recruit but he redshirted as a freshman. That is a red flag for me. College coaches should want their best athletes on the field immediately. When a player redshirts as a freshman without an injury excuse I am going to be dubious if he becomes a top rated draft prospect. As a Dolphins fan the best example was Ronnie Brown. Talk about stupidity. His resume was telling you he was never worth the second pick in any draft. Great running backs do not redshirt as freshman and spend 5 full years in college. That draft pick convinced me that Nick Saban needed 20-30 high swings per year. If you give him only one then he's error prone just like everyone else. 

I disagree with this.  I think the argument might hold water for a running back.  However, I think that for OL and DL especially, a redshirt year simply means that they need a year to add strength or fill out a bit.  Which is normal for an 18 year old.  

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Some big hits and some misses. I was huge on Aaron Donald, Zack Martin and Brandin Cooks coming out that year, those were my guys. But I was also one of the few who thought Marcus Smith would be a really good pick and heard about that from Philly fans for years after, I was definitely not right on that. I loved Teddy coming out and to be fair he had his injury at the worst possible time. I also really liked the Calvin Pryor pick and that went south in a hurry. Further down, I thought Weston Richburg would be really good and he's had some injury and form issues. Cody Latimer I thought would be a really good player and he's really sucked. I remember being pretty high on Jimmy G and Trai Turner too. 

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On 6/25/2019 at 9:13 PM, Awsi Dooger said:

When a lower rated recruit like Mack is projected high in the first round, I am going to be a doubter every time. I don't care about the occasional instances where I'll be burned.

That's a crazy philosophy to have. You're going to miss out on a ton of great players doing this. It's not "occasional." It's fairly frequent that lesser known recruits end up in the 1st round.

Guys like Antonio Brown and Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz weren't hardly recruited at all. Lane Johnson is another one. And those are off the top of my head. There are tons of NFL players that weren't highly recruited that are beasts.

In my opinion, you have to judge EVERY SINGLE PROSPECT on their own. It's like that philosophy of, "Well, he's a __________ player coming from _______ school or ______'s system." It's dumb statements like this that cause people to whiff hard on guys. You have to judge prospects without prior biases involved.

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I laughed at Manziel then, and was right about that. 

I thought Bishop Sankey was going to be the best RB in the class.

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11 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Guys like Antonio Brown and Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz weren't hardly recruited at all. Lane Johnson is another one. And those are off the top of my head. There are tons of NFL players that weren't highly recruited that are beasts.

The most glaring example of this Demarcus Ware. Out of high school he was a 6"2" 220 pound 2 star WR prospect.

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On 6/25/2019 at 6:37 PM, HoboRocket said:

I'd agree, but you can bet that there are some homers that would vote Khalil Mack.

I'd say:

1. Aaron Donald

2. Khalil Mack

3. Taylor Lewan

4. Odell Beckham, Jr.

5. Jadeveon Clowney

 

Good top 5 but I think I'd have OBJ over Lewan and possibly Mack as well.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tom cody said:

Good top 5 but I think I'd have OBJ over Lewan and possibly Mack as well.

Right, and I think some people would side with you on that, but Lewan is a stud left tackle with All-Pro ability, and that's a bigger commodity than even a potential HOF wide receiver, in my opinion. Left tackles just get valued higher than receivers in the draft, and so I think that someone like Lewan could even go number one overall in a re-draft, depending on the team. And that's the thing with the 2014 draft. You have an array of players at various positions that could justify going number one overall, with at least three guys who appear to be on the fast track to Canton already, and that's not counting any offensive linemen due to the fact that their careers can't be judged well short-term the way that production players' careers can be.

Heck, you could even argue Derek Carr going number one overall to the Texans, considering that he's already had two MVP-discussion seasons, and was a lot better last year than the touchdown total.

Edited by HoboRocket

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Posted (edited)

2014 Guys I was higher on:

Greg Robinson

Anthony Barr

Johnny Manziel

Chris Borland

Devonta Freeman

Jason Verrett

Kyle Van Noy

Mike Evans

Scott Crighton

Joel Bitonio

Rico Allen

Jemea Thomas

Tom Savage

Jeremy Gallon

------------

2014 Guys I was lower on:

Sammy Watkins

Kelvin Benjamin

Khalil Mack

Allen Robinson

Rashad Hageman

Kony Ealy

Xavier Su’a-Filo

Deone Buchannon

Louis Nix

Jimmy Garoppolo

---------------------------

Dug up some stuff I wrote from the 2014 draft:

Quote

#9. WR Odell Beckham (mock draft)
Farmer got a terrific deal from the Bills. In my eye, Watkins was overvalued and this deal was a no brainer. I don't like Farmer moving back up for Gilbert. Gilbert was only my 4th best CB. I'm not a fan of his finesse style. He plays like Deangelo Hall. (not a good thing.) Best player available that also fits my needs is Beckham. They were rumored to want to trade up with Tenn for #11 for him. I just would have taken him here.

Quote

The more I look at Sammy Watkins the less impressed I am of him as a #1 WR. He's got homerun speed, no doubt, gets to top speed in a blink, and has strong hands, but he's not as elusive as I thought. He runs to daylight in the open field, very physically, almost to a fault, but isn't the shiftiest of guys. His all purpose explosiveness reminds me of Percy Harvin but I also see quite a bit of Josh Cribbs in him. He's like a cross of the two for me.

Quote

Lots of Watkins love in here. I like him too but I've got to pump the breaks a bit. Elite raw talent but he's not near as polished a WR as former top 5 talents. He's superbly explosive but he's been used more like a RB than a wide out. He's more Peter Warrick, Rocket Ismail, Tavon Austin, then he is A.J. Green, Fitzgerald, or Justin Blackmon. The game is different now and I think he'll succeed but I'm not expecting a slam dunk career start-especially if he goes to a team with an average to sub par QB.

The guy I like best for the Browns is Beckham. Great return guy, which we need, and he excels at making clutch catches; a definite need for winning football. And his best friend is a pit bull terrier.

 

Derek Carr

Quote

I've looked some more at old Carr. Oregon in 12' and Ole Miss and 11' and it's striking how much he looks like Josh McCown. For me, that's an improvement, but I still want no part. But at least I won't be as dejected if we take him as when we drafted McCoy.

Logan Thomas

Quote

Call me delusional, but the QB after the top 4 or 5 that has the most upside is Logan Thomas. He's an ideal developmental QB if you've already got a starter. And if he absolutely bombs as a passer he still might make it as a big time pro TE.

Manziel

Quote

John Football's only a rs soph but doesn’t have much more to accomplish in college football. I've looked at the majority of his games, specifically focusing on his arm because I think it'll be the determining factor for him. I've come to the conclusion that there's nothing wrong with his arm. It's an adequate NFL arm right now. Very similar to Drew Brees' arm. The most important aspect in his transition will be the mental, not the physical. It’ll be how quickly he processes the pro game.

Kyle Van Noy

Quote

Van Noy is one of the most versatile LBs in this class. He's like a better Jamie Collins. There's even a little Derrick Johnson in there because he might be best in space. He drops with ease and he's quick and explosive attacking, although he doesn't always break down properly. I think he's one of the more underrated guys out there.

Devonta Freeman

Quote

Doesn't look to have great top end speed but he can look like he's shot out of a cannon at the handoff.
Very good lateral ability and quickness in tight spaces.
Solidhands in the flat.
Runs with a chip but not really a powerful runner at this point and pretty small overall.

Blake Bortles

Quote

Bortles is like a cross between Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Stanton. Not entirely a knock-I've always been high on Stanton.
NFL Comp: Drew Stanton

 

Edited by BrownLeader

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2014 was a rough year for me. Out of the guys I wanted the Chiefs to draft...

Hits: Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry

Miss: Calvin Pryor, Cody Latimer, DeAndre Coleman, Brandon Thomas, Andrew Jackson, Tevin Reese, Ron Powell, Terrence Brooks, Aaron Colvin

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I was super high on Jake Matthews.  Thought he'd be a perennial all pro. Solid player, but not that.

I pretty much pegged Clowney.  Elite physical traits, but his game still needed development and he needed to mature.  Very good, but questionably great player.

Didn't think Donald would be this good, but he reminded me a lot of Geno Atkins.

Looooooved the Dennard pick at the time.  He's an average slot CB.  Meh.

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Dee Ford ended up being solid but flipped for a 2nd rounder.

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@BleedTheClock Don't give up hope on Hageman yet fam we trying to resurrect him 1 last time :D   The guy legit shows dominating performances at times and you can see how seriously talented and bad *** he is.  If he can get out of his own way and put in the effort needed this time around he could very well turn into a monster DT but like always it will be up to him to take that next step.  I really hope he does because even in the nfl when he is on he is almost unstoppable and it's amazing to watch. 

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On 6/24/2019 at 7:46 PM, Ragnarok said:

A couple guys mentioned discussion of past drafts, so I figured we could start here.  Who were you right about?  Who were you wrong about?  And who are you almost too ashamed to bring up? 

Or feel free to talk about your team's draft.

Right about - Khalil Mack, Taylor Lewan, Demarcus Lawrence, Kelvin Benjamin, Eric Ebron, Ja'wuan James.  I thought the first two would turn into studs and they have.  Was very fond of Lawrence as well.  I hated Kelvin and Ebron coming out(although Ebron looks to have turned that around).  I loved Ja'wuan coming out(maybe some Vols homering), and he has been really solid for the past few years.

Wrong about - Jordan Matthews, Ra'Shede Hageman, Haha Clinton-Dix, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans.  Jordan Matthews was my favorite WR in the draft...yeah.  I thought Hageman would turn out to be a really good player.  Haha might have been my favorite player in the draft and I was beyond thrilled when GB got him and he has fallen off hard.  I thought Odell and Evans would be good, but I was wary of Odell for the late rise and wasn't sure if Evans would be able to separate at all.  Wrong on both of them.

Shame - Justin Gilbert/Johnny Manziel - I thought Cleveland did well with those two picks.  

One of two players, along with Tim Tebow, that I said that if he were to be drafted by the Vikings as a QB of the future, I would change favorite teams.

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The only players I was really high on were Khalil Mack, was obsessed with Mike Evans for the Browns, OBJ and Zach Martin. 

Hated the Browns picks. 

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