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Top QB/WR Duo for the 2019 season


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3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

In all seriousness, those are good stats/things to look at.

People like to bring up the OL situation - seriously, can it get worse? I mean, they could go all David Carr/expansion season Texans, and that still would only mean an extra 10 sacks over a 16 game season. I GUESS it could be worse if the Texans didn't even put an OL on the field... just go 6 vs 11 on offense, like a skeleton drill? 

8 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

 

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Down the hall, three forums to the right. That's the basketball forum. Kthx.

(What is that man thinking? Can he even think?)

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31 minutes ago, ET80 said:

How anyone can pick against these two is mind blowing. They've produced at the highest statistical level possible of these pairings, all while having nearly no other assets or protection to rely on in that time. Just THINK of what can be done if Max Scharping turns into a good OT, or if Will Fuller plays a full 16 and takes bracket coverage away from Hopkins...

I see them as having more weapons available. To me that means the ball will be spread around more.

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38 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

I wouldn't expect much, if any, suspension. 4 games max imo.

With that in mind, my answer is Mahomes/Hill with Brees/Thomas being 1a.

 

Really? Adrian Peterson was suspended for doing less. NFL isn't tied to the legal system - and if the legal system can't arrest Hill, then it's a massive failure anyways.

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33 minutes ago, ET80 said:

A few things to bring up:

- The Texans had the worst OL in the league; Watson was under pressure on close to 50% of his drop backs, hit 126 times, sacked 62 times last season.

- The Texans WR unit lost Will Fuller after seven games, got only seven games out of Demaryius Thomas, two games out of Keke Coutee. For a few parts of the season, the Texans #2 WR was Vyncient Smith, a UDFA out of Limestone College and the #3 WR was Joe Webb - who was also the #3 QB on the roster.

- TE group was made up of Ryan Griffin and two rookies, a clear team weakness.

So, with a weak OL and a substandard secondary options to keep defenses honest... Watson/Hopkins still ended up 2nd among QB/WRs in receptions (behind Michael Thomas) yards (behind Julio Jones) and 4th among QB/WRs in TDs (Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill).

They're the only duo that's top five in EACH of these categories - Brees/Thomas and Ryan/Julio don't get the TDs, Mahomes/Hill lacks the receptions, Rodgers/Adams and Roethlensber/Brown lack the receptions/yards. Not saying those are the end all/be all measures, but it says something.

How anyone can pick against these two is mind blowing. They've produced at the highest statistical level possible of these pairings, all while having nearly no other assets or protection to rely on in that time. Just THINK of what can be done if Max Scharping turns into a good OT, or if Will Fuller plays a full 16 and takes bracket coverage away from Hopkins...

 

Watson to Hopkins is up there - although (and this is not necessarily fair) - part of what's holding this back is that any QB/Hopkins would be a top duo. I don't think Watson is that great personally so that impacted my thinking.

Midway through last year I decided that I felt Tyreek Hill was the best WR in the NFL - so this was an easy call to make for me.

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20 minutes ago, ET80 said:

People like to bring up the OL situation - seriously, can it get worse? I mean, they could go all David Carr/expansion season Texans, and that still would only mean an extra 10 sacks over a 16 game season. I GUESS it could be worse if the Texans didn't even put an OL on the field... just go 6 vs 11 on offense, like a skeleton drill? 

Down the hall, three forums to the right. That's the basketball forum. Kthx.

(What is that man thinking? Can he even think?)

The dude was accepted into DUKE UNIVERSITY. That’s mind blowing.

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21 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

I see them as having more weapons available. To me that means the ball will be spread around more.

Fuller, sure (absolutely, in fact - if he can play a full 16, he probably gets into top 15 WR discussions). Coutee, yeah (he was incredibly productive in those few games he played). The TE group is still really young and and unknown (I love Jordan Thomas as an in-line guy and I think Kahale Warring will be a nice move TE) and the run game is still relying on the corpse of Lamar Miller and a hope that D'Onta Foreman and his ankle can stay intact for 150+ carries.

This offense is one Will Fuller soft tissue injury from going back to "throw it to Hopkins 10 times a half" status. It's probably the reason why the Texans were quick to fire Brian Gaine after this off-season; He really sat there and did nothing to improve anything outside of the OL, and even those improvements are questionable.

25 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

Watson to Hopkins is up there - although (and this is not necessarily fair) - part of what's holding this back is that any QB/Hopkins would be a top duo. I don't think Watson is that great personally so that impacted my thinking.

I can't change your view - but if this was true, why didn't Tom Savage turn into a top QB throwing to Hopkins? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Case Keenum? The one we shall never speak of?

Hopkins has been productive with everyone QB he's worked with, save for the one we shall never speak of - but only one of those QBs was productive overall in terms of yardage, TDs and TD/Int ratio, and that was Watson. 

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1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

Really? Adrian Peterson was suspended for doing less. NFL isn't tied to the legal system - and if the legal system can't arrest Hill, then it's a massive failure anyways.

Except the evidence is showing that Hill is innocent in this case. But that's not what this thread is about and I won't comment on it further to keep this thread form de-railing. When news is released of Hill's suspension status, hopefully it can be discussed in a civil manner then.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 6/27/2019 at 11:46 AM, ET80 said:

They're the only duo that's top five in EACH of these categories - Brees/Thomas and Ryan/Julio don't get the TDs, Mahomes/Hill lacks the receptions, Rodgers/Adams and Roethlensber/Brown lack the receptions/yards.

Oooh--Cherry picking stats--lovely.

How easy would it be to say "Watson/Hopkins don't get the YPC/YAC."  

How about not being top 5 in...

WR YAC, WR Fumbles, QB Total Yds, QB Total TDs, QB Rating, among others

Jones had 3 less TDs and 100 MORE yds, and higher YPC.

AB had 4 more TDs, and AB didn't play in all 16 games, and isn't with Ben anymore, AND had to share targets with another top 10 WR in the league, as opposed to Hopkins, who had more targets than the next four best receivers on Houston combined. Receptions??  Really?  AB had 1 less game and 11 less receptions but four more TDs? He's AVERAGED 7.76 Rec/Gm over the last five years--Hopkins had 7.19 Rec/Gm in just ONE season (his best, BTW, and lower three of AB's seasons). AB's also produced more TDs/season over the last three seasons than Hopkins--not just one. And AB has also avg'd/accumulated more yds in fewer games over the past three, four, five, six seasons, than Hopkins.The two combined avg's 11 TDs...hmm...that's as many as Hopkins had, 2 LESS than Adams...

Speaking of Adams, 4 less Receptions, and nearly 1400 yds, and 150+ YAC, and, two more TDs??  He's avg'd almost three TDs/season more than Hopkins over the last three years

So how can you possibly even be so bold to say that Ben/AB lack the Receptions/Yds...based upon one season??  Juju had only 150 less yds, #1 WR in YAC of 175% (240+yds more than) of Hopkins, and has a statistically better first two years in the league than Hopkins had, and, has the better QB throwing him the ball.

And Tyreek Hill bested Hopkins in YAC, TDs, YPC.

And that's just the WR side of the house...haven't even addressed that Watson isn't even a top 10 QB--11th in Yds, 12th in TDs, and out of the Top 5 in YPA, Comp %, etc.

After ONE season, you are ready to proclaim that duo as besting Rodgers/Adams, Brees/Thomas, Ben/Juju, Mahomes/Hill and the most egregious of all, Ryan/Jones?

Based upon more-than-one-season of work, I'd put Watson/Hopkins behind those 4 easily. And regarding QB Pressures??  Ben endured that, for multiple seasons.

I can appreciate your fervor for your 'guys', but the simple fact is, you are basing that whole conclusion on one season's production. Do you honestly believe that the better QB/WR pairing of Watson/Hopkins is better than Ryan/Jones??  Ben/Juju??  Rodgers/Adams?? Brees/Thomas??  Brady/...heck, pick one?? All based upon 3 TDs here, or 4 receptions there, or being Top 5 in your cherry-picked stats, while dismissing those Hopkins, and/or Watson do not excel at????

Sustainability.  I'm not saying you can't be correct in your assertion; I'm saying, you are basing this assertion off of just one season's statistics...which, BTW, Hopkins did not lead a single one of the stats/categories you mentioned, nor did Watson. The only somewhat relevant stat Hopkins led was 1st Downs...by just one single 1st Dn.

 

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4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Oooh--Cherry picking stats--lovely.

I went off the top three stats that most rely on, receptions, yards and TDs - my intention wasn't to get into sub stats that are reliant on these three bulk stats, but here we go:

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

WR YAC

I'd argue this is a function of how a WR can manipulate in the open field, and doesn't really provide insight on how a QB operates within the context of that play. You can factor it in if you'd like, but I don't.

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

WR Fumbles

So, isn't NOT being in this top five a GOOD thing? 

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

QB Total Yds

Again, not a function of the QB/WR relationship, as this is more a function of the QB and ALL of his pass catchers, which we've already identified as less than average in the case of the Texans. When Joe Webb is taking snaps as a #3 WR, it's not good.

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

QB Total TDs

See above.

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

QB Rating

See above, again.

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

AB had 4 more TDs, and AB didn't play in all 16 games, and isn't with Ben anymore, AND had to share targets with another top 10 WR in the league, as opposed to Hopkins, who had more targets than the next four best receivers on Houston combined

You argue that it's an issue of sharing targets, I argue it's a case of drawing coverage away to more favorable looks. Who else is there on the Houston offense to be wary of? Yet, he's still producing, and at an efficient rate at that (100% catch rate on catchable passes last season).

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

So how can you possibly even be so bold to say that Ben/AB lack the Receptions/Yds...based upon one season?? 

Do you understand the topic? It's the best QB/WR tandems for 2019. I can say with 100% certainty that Watson to Hopkins will be more productive than Ben to Brown in 2019, because Ben to Brown is DEAD. Ben to Juju might have an argument but we don't know what Juju will look like as a #1 WR yet, and Carr to Brown might have a chance (but I'm not betting on that). But THAT IS how I'm bold on this... because I know Ben/Brown is going to be 0/0/0 next season.

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

And that's just the WR side of the house...haven't even addressed that Watson isn't even a top 10 QB--11th in Yds, 12th in TDs, and out of the Top 5 in YPA, Comp %, etc.

Going to ask again - do you understand the topic? How this is in relation to a specific QB/WR unit? So, mentioning stats that measure productivity across all targets isn't really telling us anything about the specific topic, right?

You're creating strawman after strawman on this one. 

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

I can appreciate your fervor for your 'guys', but the simple fact is, you are basing that whole conclusion on one season's production.

Yes - one seasons' production. Because they've only played...one season. And this is a discussion on how they will do NEXT season, not how they've done up to this point.

I sincerely feel as if you missed the entire point of this thread. If you're looking for a discussion on who has been more productive over the course of three/five/seven years, yeah - I'm taking Ben/Brown or Ryan/Julio.

Going forward, your leaders in the clubhouse have to be Watson/Hopkins and Mahomes/Hill, and Hill's legal issues have to put a damper on his odds. Mayfield/Beckham is in the discussion as well, but we don't know how this plays out - it's probably due to be pretty big, but it's an unknown as of right now.

4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Sustainability.  I'm not saying you can't be correct in your assertion...

THIS is the crux of the ENTIRE thread. Like, this is the entire reason we're having this discussion - who is going to be able to sustain this going into 2019. 

Hope this helps clarify.

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3 hours ago, ET80 said:

So, isn't NOT being in this top five a GOOD thing?

Haha...no, I meant 'fewest' fumbles...he had 2, and both were lost, but I see your points on some of what you are refuting, but are we not talking about entire package here? YAC gains yds; potentially leading to scoring opportunities.  Are half their connections out-routes/sideline throws, or is your QB not leading your WR?? Or can he not take advantage when he gets the ball in his hands.

And regarding, Sustainability, allow me to clarify.  Lots of players have a really good season; Hopkins has not been necessarily, shall we say, consistent.  2017, his catch rate was pretty poor; 2018, it jumps by nearly 15% points...5-10%, back and forth??  Okay, but 15%??  Is that simply because i took a year for Watson/Hopkins to find their groove? Or is it an anomaly.  Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson looked as if they were forming a beautiful relationship following the 2015 season.  Bortles was getting hammered, the Jags running game was all but inconsistent in 2015, and 2016 was to be the portent of happy future days for the Jags...then 2016 happened...Bortles regressed, as did Robinson, even though sack numbers dropped by 1/3?  And yes, Robinson had one heck of a season in 2015--14 TDs, 1400 yds...then...

Take a look at Luck, after his 3rd season...he looked as if he was turning the corner...then, he started off the 4th season pretty poorly, sustained a few injuries through the year, sure, but it's not like he started the season with a bang.

That's my point about sustainability.  Just because Watson had a decent sophomore season, does not mean it will continue. 

I know I may have come across a bit snippish, but really, I was just trying to point out that the 5 QB/WR pairings you alluded to, have proven more than one season of success, yet based upon that single season, you claim that they will be the best in 2019. I'm sorry, I just cannot subscribe to that theory--basically, what I am saying is, I'll play the odds that the 5 better QBs will have a better chance at helping their WRs, who, lets face it, the crux of your argument was primarily based upon Hopkins, under the guise of it being the duo.  If I had to guess, I would say thatHopkins has likely done more for Watson, than Watson for Hopkins, and while that may  continue, I have my doubts, and believe that Ryan/Jones, Ben/Juju, Rodgers/Adams, Luck/Hilton, Brees/Thomas, 

A total of 10 reception separate Hopkins from 3 other QB/WRs, while another single WR from that list, had 10 more receptions than Hopkins. Three of those QB/WR duos avg within 3 TDs, while two separate duos, accrued more TDs than Houston's duo.  Three of those 'duos' accrued 1400+ yds (just 100-150 yds shy of Watson/Hopkins), and one duo of them had nearly 1700yds, which was also 100+ yds more than Watson/Hopkins.

My point is, Watson/Hopkins were not as dominant as you portrayed them, IMO.  I think they are all very close, and again, if I'm taking odds, I'm taking one of the duos who have done it for more than one season, or, a QB that has with another WR.  That's my point.

Again, apologize if I came across too snarky or snippy; I simply meant to just point out that they are all closer than you alluded, and a few of them have more than one season of success.  I would not pick Mahomes/Hill, either. Doesn't mean they are doomed, but I've seen too many times over the decades, where a player, or a QB/WR duo, or a RB, lit it up one season, then failed to ever repeat.  Josh Gordon, anyone?? David Johnson??  Rashard Mendenhall??  Jordan Howard??  Emmanuel Sanders??  Jeremy Maclin??  etc. etc.  

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38 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

Haha...no, I meant 'fewest' fumbles...he had 2, and both were lost, but I see your points on some of what you are refuting, but are we not talking about entire package here? YAC gains yds; potentially leading to scoring opportunities.  Are half their connections out-routes/sideline throws, or is your QB not leading your WR?? Or can he not take advantage when he gets the ball in his hands.

Understand on the fumbles thing - get it that Hop isn't top 5, but two lost in a season isn't something I'd crucify someone for, regardless of team. 

As far as the YAC - I don't think Hopkins' game is really geared for that. He's a pristine route runner, has a great catch radius, is very physical in his routes but he doesn't exactly break into the open field and outrun the defense. 

You mention the out routes, and it's actually one of the staples of Hopkins and any of his QBs - the out route to the sideline is Hopkins' best route because he's got a Spider-Man like reach, he just snags passes and toe taps for a big gain. 

38 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

And regarding, Sustainability, allow me to clarify.  Lots of players have a really good season; Hopkins has not been necessarily, shall we say, consistent.  2017, his catch rate was pretty poor; 2018, it jumps by nearly 15% points...5-10%, back and forth??  Okay, but 15%??  Is that simply because i took a year for Watson/Hopkins to find their groove? Or is it an anomaly.  Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson looked as if they were forming a beautiful relationship following the 2015 season.  Bortles was getting hammered, the Jags running game was all but inconsistent in 2015, and 2016 was to be the portent of happy future days for the Jags...then 2016 happened...Bortles regressed, as did Robinson, even though sack numbers dropped by 1/3?  And yes, Robinson had one heck of a season in 2015--14 TDs, 1400 yds...then...

Remember, the majority of 2017 was with Tom Savage and TJ Yates as his QB - Watson played 5.5 games, and those two went on a tear when both were in the line up. Savage as the starter (with that Texans OL, no less) yielded the results you'd expect. You'll see that the drop rates for Will Fuller and Ryan Griffin dropped in similar fashion following the QB change, I'd surmise. (Probably a more drastic drop rate for Fuller, who has major drop issues already).

38 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

That's my point about sustainability.  Just because Watson had a decent sophomore season, does not mean it will continue. 

I don't discount this, but then I look at what Hopkins has done with guys like Yates, Savage, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, etc - and I think in context of those two in a vacuum, they'll be fine. Watson might regress, but he'd have to regress to a Brock Osweiler-level of futility to really put a dent in Hopkins' production based on what we have seen.

38 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

I know I may have come across a bit snippish, but really, I was just trying to point out that the 5 QB/WR pairings you alluded to, have proven more than one season of success, yet based upon that single season, you claim that they will be the best in 2019

I do buy into this - it's not just the numbers those two produced, but the circumstances behind those numbers. You have a QB who just spent his off-season rehabbing a torn ACL, you have the worst OL in the league, you have a team with no WR depth (so you know where the ball is going on majority of passing plays) and you still had this duo do some BIG things. 

What happens when those two can digest the playbook together and get reps in immediately? What happens if the OL improves? What happens if you get a presence at WR/TE that can take away double coverage? I'm an optimist, but I'd think any QB/WR unit would benefit from such improvements to their systems. 

38 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

My point is, Watson/Hopkins were not as dominant as you portrayed them, IMO.  I think they are all very close, and again, if I'm taking odds, I'm taking one of the duos who have done it for more than one season, or, a QB that has with another WR.  That's my point.

My take is that with some of those duos, you're approaching a point of diminishing returns. I like Matt Ryan, but I'm anticipating a decline in his play over the next few seasons. I'm not thinking a complete fall from grace a la Joe Flacco, but a gradual slide from his spot. Ditto for Rodgers, who is still great with a decline, just not the wizard he once was. Same with Ben, if we're being honest - time simply isn't beaten (unless you're talking about Brady, who is an anomaly) and I'll always put a premium on the younger QBs (or any position, really) in a question of who will perform at a high level in upcoming seasons. 

38 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

Doesn't mean they are doomed, but I've seen too many times over the decades, where a player, or a QB/WR duo, or a RB, lit it up one season, then failed to ever repeat.  Josh Gordon, anyone?? David Johnson??  Rashard Mendenhall??  Jordan Howard??  Emmanuel Sanders??  Jeremy Maclin??  etc. etc.  

A lot of these have to do with things not seen on the field - Gordon looked every part the player in NE, but he had demons that he can't shake. David Johnson has injury issues, we can't really anticipate those things. Mendenhall didn't really like the game and retired quickly, IIRC... Sanders had some big years with Denver, and is/was still productive up until his ankle injury last season and Maclin... well, he wasn't that good IMO.

I'm willing to put a bit more faith in these guys.

41 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

Again, apologize if I came across too snarky or snippy

I mod General, I'm totally used to it. 

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