Future of NFC North...Cap Stuff

[vegas492]

Pretty much down time right now.  Thought I'd use Spotrac and OTC to look at NFC North rosters, cap hits and what not....

Let's get to it.

First up, Green Bay Packers.  I haven't looked at Spotrac or OTC just yet, but I think GB has around $8M or so under the cap for this year.  And without releasing anyone, I don't feel like there's much cap space to make any large moves, except for re-signing Clark.

2019 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has GB with 8.97M under the cap for 2019.  OTC has GB with 8.4M of cap room for 2019.  Either way, GB is in position to make a move if they need to and they have a little room to get an in-year extension done.  They have this space, even after signing 4 starting plays via free agency.  Safe to say that with those 4 (Smith, Smith, Amos, Turner) and two first round picks (Gary, Savage)  GB has positioned themselves to have a new look to their roster to go with their new head coach in 2019.  No cap issues to speak of.

Let's take a look at those $10M players.  Only 5.  Rodgers at $26.5M.  Bakh at $14.2M.  Graham at $12.6M.  (Ungh) Daniels at $10.7M.  That's really not too many.

Key free agents include Daniels, Bulaga, Williams, Crosby, Allison, Spriggs, Fackrell, Lowry, Martinez.  Let's see if there is money for them.

2020 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has GB as 2.59M over the salary cap for 2020.  They list their Max Cap at $188,200,000.  OTC has GB with $13.6M under the cap for 2020.  Their Max Cap is $200M.  So, we can see where the difference comes in.

I like looking at players making $10M plus.  Next year it is Rodgers at $32.6M.  Z Smith at $17.2M, 'Vante at $16.6M (which is going to be a steal), Bakh at $14.2M, P Smith at $13.5M, Graham at $11.6M, Linsley at $10.5M.  That isn't a terribly long list and I think we all know who would be the most likely guy on that list to be released.

GB can save an additional $11M by releasing Bakh and we know that isn't happening, but it shows that he could be a candidate to restructure with a longer term deal and decrease the cap hit to 2020.

GB can save $8M by releasing Jimmy Graham.  GB can save $8.5M by releasing Linsley.  GB can save $4.5M by releasing Lane Taylor.  Looks like OTC is showing Clark with a $7.7M cap hit with no dead money, probably the 5'th year option.  Could simply work out a long term deal and maybe that number gets lowered.

My conclusion?  GB dipped into free agency in 2019.  I expect GB to continue to look at free agency, but they will lack the cap space to do much more than window shop on the early days.  I see it more likely that they use their space to lock up key younger players.  I think that this roster in 2020 will be pretty similar to the roster in 2019.  But there will be turnover, even if releasing Graham, GB will be hard pressed to re-sign all their free agents.   And....I'm very good with that.  Team is in okay shape to get deals done with guys that they need.  Not good.  Not great, but okay.

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Next, let's look at Da Bears.  Outpost has talked about how crippling that Mack contract is...let's see if that is true.  I'm thinking that they are in a pretty tough cap position here in 2019 and 2020 is going to be worse.  They already had to re-do that Mack deal to create space and all that does is kick those costs into the future years. 

2019 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has Chicago with $16.8M of cap space.  Wait...WHAAAT?  Yup.  That is what Spotrac is reporting.  OTC has them with $16.7M of cap space.  Say it ain't so!  Ah, there it is, Mack's cap number is 11.9M this coming season.  Yah, kicked that can down the road a few years.  So while it is "there", I don't think Chicago will be doing much more to their roster this year, including locking up one of their younger guys.  But, we shall see.  Still...I'm pretty amazed at their cap situation in 2019, like someone in their accounting Department needs an MVP trophy or something like that.

I like looking at those $10M plus players.  Chicago only has 4 of them in 2019.  Allen Robinson at $15M.  Kyle Fuller at $13.5M, Mack at $11.9M and Hicks at $10.1M.  Seriously, those are some low cap numbers for Mack and Hicks.  Wow.  

Key free agents...  Trevathan, Long, Daniel, HHCD, Lynch, Whitehair.  Long actually has a club option.  Whitehair is the one that would hurt.  But they could end up with holes on the OL, LB and secondary.  May have to give up Long to retain Whitehair.

2020 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has the Bears as $27M over the cap in 2020.  There's the Mack effect.  OTC has them with $4.8M over the cap.  

Let's take a peek at 2020 for those $10M players.  Only 6.  Mack at a $26.6M hit.  Fuller at $17.5M.  Robinson at $15M. Floyd at $13.2M.  Hicks at $11.8M.  Goldman at $10.8M.  Just missing the cut is Long at $9.6M.

Looks like they have an easy out on Robinson and can save $13M by releasing him.  Floyd looks to be under a 5'th year option and that number can loosen up.  Can free up $8 each by releasing Hicks, Long or Amukamara.

My conclusion?  Sure is nice having a QB on a rookie deal.  Even that Mack contract isn't a killer.  I don't see Chicago being much of player in free agency next year, but they do have ways to slide under the cap without losing too much to that roster.  I think we all know that this team will get better only if it gets better under center.  Going to be interesting to see how the cap works for them as they progress in that Mack contract, yet don't have first round picks to produce on cheaper deals.  It isn't like they are going to get more talent via free agency to replace what they need to lose to be cap compliant.  List of impending free agents isn't overwhelming either.  But, it is going to test the depth of the guys behind them.  And with no higher round draft picks, man, that could be tough.

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How about the Vikings?  I can't believe they paid so much for Cousins and have retained most of their talent.  Let's see how it is shaking out.

2019 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has those Vikes with $5.2M of space.  OTC has them with $5.2M.  So yah, they are under, not comfortably under, but still they are fine.

Let's take a peek at those $10M players.  7 of them.  Cousins at $29M.  Hunter at $13.5M.  Rhodes at $13.3M.  Diggs at $12.4M.  Reiff at $11.7M.  Smith at 10.7M.  Joseph at $10.6M.  Thinking that Barr and Thielen just got new deals, so their hits are probably light, like the Smith's in GB.  Still, gotta give them credit for doing that Cousins deal while keeping all this talent.

Key free agents.  Griffen has a club option.  Waynes.  Harris.  Treadwell.  Alexander. Jones.  

2020 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has them as being $30.6M over the cap in 2020.  OTC has them as being $12M over in 2020.  Yah, looks initially like 2020 is when it will officially hit the fan for Minnesota.

$10M players...  11 of them.  Cousins at $31M.  Diggs $14.5M (steal).  Hunter $14M.  Griffen $13.9M.  Reiff $13.2M.  Joseph $12.9M.  Rhodes $12.9M.  Thielen $12.8M (steal).  Barr $12.7M.  Smith $10.7M.  Kendricks $10M.  Just missing the cut is Rudolph at $9.4M.  Man they have some great players on some really nice deals.  Diggs/Thielen/Rhodes.   Even Hunter.

Looks like they can save $8.8M by releasing Reiff.  $10.5M by releasing Joseph. $8.7M by releasing Smith.  $13.1M by releasing Griffen.  That's the easy one.  Griffen is done after this year, or he's working on a new deal.  Guessing the next one to be addressed is Joseph.  

My conclusion?  2019 is the last run for these guys.  2020 they are going to lose probably 2 players just to get under the cap.  That is without re-signing anyone..  It isn't the end of the world, but cuts are cuts.  The Cousins deal doesn't appear to be crippling them at all.  Rather they have drafted quite well and now are paying those guys.  The turd in the punchbowl, as I see it, is Rhodes.  I think he could make a case that he deserves much more and holdout.  Diggs could do the same thing.  Because of that, despite the fact that they may lose a player or two, I just don't see them being active in early free agency.  No real huge impending free agents, but there is a pass rusher, starting lineman, failed first round pick, solid safety and starting corner.  Actually two corners.  Depth is going to be tested.

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How about those Lions?  Seems to me like they have the least amount of talent, so they should have the most cap space.  Let's get to it.

2019 Cap Outlook  '

Spotrac has them at $22.7M under the cap.  OTC has them with $23.3M of cap space.  Anyway you look at it, they are the leader in the division.

Let's look at their $10M players...  Stafford at $29.5M.  Slay.  $15.9M.  Wagner $11.9M.  Just missing the cut, Marvin Jones at $9.1M.  Uh, yah.  Least amount of $10M players. After seeing this, I wonder if Snacks Harrison is going to hold out for more money?

Key free agents?  Question mark is supposed to be there...Ammendola, Riddick (I'll give you that one), Wilson, Christian Jones, Melvin, CJ Anderson, Kears, A;Shawn Robinson  

2020 Cap Outlook

Spotrac has them with $5.7M of cap space.  OTC has them with $21M of cap space.

$10M players.  Stafford $31.5M.  Flowers at $16.7M.  Slay $13.4M.  Wagner at $11.9M.  Decker at $10.3M.  Just missing is Harrison at $9.2M and Marvin Jones at $9.1M.  Looks like Decker is on an option year and can be re-signed and maybe have a lower cap hit.

My conclusion?  Tough team to figure out.  I don't see much talent here.  Yet they've won a lot of games against GB recently.  They will have some money under the cap to secure any of their free agents that they want.  Not a lot of money left over to big players in early free agency.  Looks like that Slay contract could become an issue in 2020, thinking he deserves more.  Also feel like Harrison will be wanting more money pretty quickly.

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Final Thoughts

2019 is kind of "The" year for Chicago and Minnesota.  Each are going to have some struggles managing that cap moving forward.  

Green Bay really needed those 4 free agents and two first round picks to overhaul that roster.

Lions really needed that centerpiece to their defense.  And I'd argue they need 3-4 more quality players to emerge if they want to contend for a division title.

No matter what, I don't see any of these teams being very aggressive in early free agency this coming year.  I think these rosters are more or less set moving forward.  

And...I like where GB is positioned.  Every fan of every team will say they like their young talent.  But man, I REALLY like our young talent.  And we have some really nice players entering into their primes. 

I have no doubt that Chicago and Minnesota feel like they can win it all.  And they will battle each other hard.  But GB is going to be right there with them this year.  And I think GB will pass them next year.  And the Lions?  Yah, they are still the Lions, which means they will play us really tough, but lose to a lot of other teams.

Thanks for taking the time to read.  Started this out just curious concerning the Packer cap and Viking cap.  Expanded it and enjoyed the process. 

 

 

 

 

[Shanedorf]

6 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Final Thoughts

2019 is kind of "The" year for Chicago and Minnesota.  Each are going to have some struggles managing that cap moving forward.  

nice write-up. Although as Norm likes to say, teams really don't get into cap hell anymore. But there is certainly some tightness
vikes adding Kubiak should be a big plus for their offense/Cousins -  but it may take some time to assimilate.
Kubiak will either save Zimmer's bacon or take his job for the next iteration of the vikes.
Zygi is a huge zimmer fan, but its a production bizness and one-eyed Mike ain't produced squat with the talent at hand.
(3 out of 5 seasons with 8 or fewer wins)

Also; TBSS

[Packerraymond]

Bad time of year to look at future caps, these sites roll the 90 man roster over. They do top 51 for this year but not future years, so every team looks "over" the cap for next year because it's counting all the players of the 90 man roster. After cuts in August it will be more accurate. We will have cap next year. Perry, Daniels, Bulaga come off the books at around 30m, we roll over 8.5 and we can gain 8 from Graham and you have the 10m increase in space we've been seeing. I estimate we'll be in the 25-35m range. We can be players again for 1-2 big guys or just look to bring back much of our own depending on how this year goes.

[vegas492]

3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Bad time of year to look at future caps, these sites roll the 90 man roster over. They do top 51 for this year but not future years, so every team looks "over" the cap for next year because it's counting all the players of the 90 man roster. After cuts in August it will be more accurate. We will have cap next year. Perry, Daniels, Bulaga come off the books at around 30m, we roll over 8.5 and we can gain 8 from Graham and you have the 10m increase in space we've been seeing. I estimate we'll be in the 25-35m range. We can be players again for 1-2 big guys or just look to bring back much of our own depending on how this year goes.

Very interesting and thank you for adding that.

[Joe]

On 6/28/2019 at 7:10 AM, Packerraymond said:

Bad time of year to look at future caps, these sites roll the 90 man roster over. They do top 51 for this year but not future years, so every team looks "over" the cap for next year because it's counting all the players of the 90 man roster. After cuts in August it will be more accurate. We will have cap next year. Perry, Daniels, Bulaga come off the books at around 30m, we roll over 8.5 and we can gain 8 from Graham and you have the 10m increase in space we've been seeing. I estimate we'll be in the 25-35m range. We can be players again for 1-2 big guys or just look to bring back much of our own depending on how this year goes.

So, out of the four teams, it looks like Minnesota is in the worst position. Given your statement, how are they affected?

[Krauser]

9 hours ago, vegas492 said:

How about the Vikings?  I can't believe they paid so much for Cousins and have retained most of their talent.  Let's see how it is shaking out.

Key free agents.  Griffen has a club option.  Waynes.  Harris.  Treadwell.  Alexander. Jones.

...

Looks like they can save $8.8M by releasing Reiff.  $10.5M by releasing Joseph. $8.7M by releasing Smith.  $13.1M by releasing Griffen.  That's the easy one.  Griffen is done after this year, or he's working on a new deal.  Guessing the next one to be addressed is Joseph.  

My conclusion?  2019 is the last run for these guys.  2020 they are going to lose probably 2 players just to get under the cap.  That is without re-signing anyone..  It isn't the end of the world, but cuts are cuts.  The Cousins deal doesn't appear to be crippling them at all.  Rather they have drafted quite well and now are paying those guys.  The turd in the punchbowl, as I see it, is Rhodes.  I think he could make a case that he deserves much more and holdout.  Diggs could do the same thing.  Because of that, despite the fact that they may lose a player or two, I just don't see them being active in early free agency.  No real huge impending free agents, but there is a pass rusher, starting lineman, failed first round pick, solid safety and starting corner.  Actually two corners.  Depth is going to be tested.

Ant Harris (safety next to Smith, excellent last year replacing Sendejo) and Weatherly (DE3 who was good rotationally last year) are likely candidates for an extension heading into training camp. Both will likely get medium term deals for modest prices (~$6M x 3-4 years). 

Treadwell lost his job as the WR3 last year. This year, he's behind Chad Beebe and Jordan Taylor, at least. Good chance he doesn't make the team this year.

Griffen's deal voids if he plays ~60% of snaps or gets more than a handful of sacks, both of which are good bets.  He's pretty strongly attached to the team (credits them with turning his life around coming out of college, and has spoken highly of how they handled his psychiatric breakdown last year), so he might be willing to stay on a cheaper shorter-term deal. If Weatherly plays well enough to earn the starter's job at DE2 going forward, Griffen might take a DE3 contract to stay. If Weatherly disappoints, and/or if they can't work out an extension, Griffen could stay on a reworked contract at DE2 prices. 

Rhodes wasn't good last year. He turns 30 next June. They have a lot of young (Mike Hughes, Holton Hill) and prime age (Waynes, Alexander) CB talent, and Zimmer has an enviable record for developing corners. Decent chance they let Rhodes go in order to keep at least one of Waynes/Alexander, and let Hughes and Hill play more.

They probably won't cut Reiff next year. He's only OK but he's not overpaid. They don't have a replacement LT, unless they move Brian O'Neill over, which would just create a hole on the right side that they can't fill either. 

Diggs' extension only kicks in this year, and runs through 2023. He won't hold out. If he outplays his contract for the next few years, the Vikings will extend him early with 2-3 years left on the current deal to get him more guaranteed money, as they've done to reward other vets outperforming their contracts (Griffen and Joseph, then Thielen this year). 

Smith continues to be excellent. They might actually extend him this year (3 years early) to get his cap numbers down for 2020, give them some flexibility under the cap. Very likely Smith ends up playing his entire career in Minnesota. 

Joseph is a tough call. He was pretty good last year but a step worse than his peak in 2017. His game should age well but it is a limited role as a run stopping NT. He doesn't have an heir apparent: Jaleel Johnson is a NT/DT swing backup who hasn't impressed yet, and Shamar Stephen is a decent run stopper NT/DT but nowhere near as good as Linval. My guess is they find a way to keep Joseph, reworking his deal (which has basically no dead cap money left) to lower his cap number, with more guaranteed money. 

The big move potentially would be to extend Cousins heading into next year, which would lower his 2020 cap number considerably. I don't think that happens unless he puts up top 10 volume and efficiency stats under Kubiak this year (not impossible, similar system to the Shanahan/McVay scheme he played well in in Washington), and the Vikings win a playoff game.

... 

Overall, the Vikings roster is in good shape. Their biggest problem with the salary cap is that they drafted well and have a lot of veterans deservedly paid in the top 10-20 range for their positions.

Fully half of their starters are paid an AAV of $10M or more -- 11 players: Cousins, Thielen, Griffen, Hunter, Diggs, Rhodes, Barr, Joseph, Reiff, Smith, Kendricks -- and that doesn't even count Rudolph ($9M AAV) or Waynes ($9M 5th year option).  10 of those 13 players were homegrown, with only 3 outside UFAs, one of whom (Joseph) is starting his 2nd contract with the Vikings, and has become a fixture. A couple of those expensive players are underwhelming and arguably overpaid (Cousins, Rudolph) and a few more are aging (Griffen, Rhodes, maybe Joseph), but there isn't an outright bad contract in the bunch -- only Cousins' deal is effectively guaranteed beyond year 2, so just about anyone else can be asked to take a pay cut or renegotiated to make cap space (as happened with Griffen and Kendricks this offseason). The Vikings so far have avoided the Perry- or Cobb-style anchor contracts with players falling off dramatically after they get paid, and before they can be easily moved. 

But the upshot is that their roster is top heavy. Most of their depth is day 3 drafted or UDFA players on rookie contracts. They've so far done a good job of developing some of that depth, for instance with Weatherly (2016 7th rounder) and Harris (2015 UDFA) playing at a starter level last year. With Hughes and Hill in the wings at CB, the defense looks to be in good shape going forward, though they do need one of their prospect DTs (Jalyn Holmes, Jaleel Johnson, Armon Watts, and interestingly Hercules Mata'afa) to develop into a starter, within the year. 

The outlook on offense is less clear. The skill positions are in good shape, with Diggs/Thielen, Rudolph and Irv Smith, and Dalvin Cook. The expectation is that Chad Beebe will be the WR3, a possession slot target. 

But of course Cousins is a question mark. I'm not a big fan. I do think he can be effective if supported by scheme and supporting cast, as Keenum was in 2017. He's exactly the kind of QB who should excel in Kubiak's system (he'll love all the rules and restrictions that Rodgers will chafe against in a similar situation), and the Kubiak-Shanahan axis is reportedly high on him (a major reason Kubiak chose to come to the Vikings, reportedly, much as Kyle Shanahan wanted to bring Cousins to SF), which seems like a good sign. 

The biggest problem is that the OL has been a black hole since 2014. They haven't had an unequivocal success of a draft pick in 10 years, with multiple players (Loadholt, Fusco, Harris) suffering career ending or -altering injuries/illneses, while others have declined unexpectedly (Kalil) or lost a year or more to injuries (Sullivan, Easton, Elflein more or less last year). Their UFA additions have been mediocre to bad, and their later round picks haven't panned out at all. While they've recently invested more in OL talent (Elflein 3rd round 2017, O'Neill 2nd round 2018, Bradbury 1st round and Samia 4th round 2019), the jury is out as to whether they're capable of turning those players into even an average unit, let alone a strength.

On paper, the Kubiak system will be a good fit for that group, with the wide zone scheme, and it should be obvious to any Packers fan how important good OL coaching is to player development and the performance of the group as a whole, but I can't imagine any Vikings fan can be honestly confident that the OL this year will be any better than just OK.

The team as a whole is well positioned to contend this year. The defense should be one of the better units in the league again. Between the new scheme and the addition of Bradbury, the OL should at least improve from its latest nadir. If Cousins can take advantage of what should be a good situation, they could have a top 10 offense. I like their chances to win 10+ games though I don't know if they have what it takes to elevate their game and win in the playoffs. As well built as the team has been over the past several years, they've seemingly peaked at very good, not great, with their ceiling limited by bad luck (Teddy's injury, kicker mishaps, etc) and their own inability to raise their game when it matters most. 

 

[Shanedorf]

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals

Over under on win totals for 2019 from Oddsshark:
The vikes are at 9,  bears at 9.5  Packers at 9.5

[vegas492]

On 6/29/2019 at 12:55 PM, Krauser said:

The team as a whole is well positioned to contend this year. The defense should be one of the better units in the league again. Between the new scheme and the addition of Bradbury, the OL should at least improve from its latest nadir. If Cousins can take advantage of what should be a good situation, they could have a top 10 offense. I like their chances to win 10+ games though I don't know if they have what it takes to elevate their game and win in the playoffs. As well built as the team has been over the past several years, they've seemingly peaked at very good, not great, with their ceiling limited by bad luck (Teddy's injury, kicker mishaps, etc) and their own inability to raise their game when it matters most. 

 

Thanks for the write up, guessing you are a Vikes fan and much more in the know that someone like me who just passably follows them and tries to look at the roster and cap from afar.

Your words above...I can't disagree with any of it.  10+ games?  Yah.  I can see that.  Top 10 offense?  Yah, they have the skill guys to put up numbers, though I question just how good that line will hold up, even with Bradbury.  Yes to their defense having the talent to be one of the better ones in the league.

Here's my question for you...given their cap situation next year, over by $12M, they need to do something.  Can't just kick the can down the road with Cousins and still have enough to be under without losing anyone or having room to sign rookies.

To me, Griffen and Joseph are the two guys that could be gone.  While I still really like Griffen and admire what he's done while in the NFL, he's a luxury at this point.  Joseph, I think, is declining some and not what he used to be.  I don't think you create enough cap space by extending them and lowering numbers.  I don't think they take that much less to stay.  And if I'm Rhodes, I know I'm better than any other corner on the roster, I'm getting older and I want to be paid top dollar quickly.

I just don't see them being players in free agency, first wave.  And I see them losing a player or two to get under the cap enough to sign draft picks.  And losing a player or two is not the end of the world, like at all, to that roster as it is just that talented.  The weakness as I see it is still two fold.  Offensive line.  Cousins in games/situation where it really counts.  What does the future tell you?

[Krauser]

23 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Top 10 offense?  Yah, they have the skill guys to put up numbers, though I question just how good that line will hold up, even with Bradbury.  

They got a lot out of a similar or worse collection of OL talent in 2017, thanks to scheme, play design and Keenum improvising.

The 2018 OL on paper shouldn’t have been so much worse (only real drop off in talent was Berger to Remmers at RG) but between Elflein struggling to recover from his injuries, the loss of Sparano (which I think led to the OL looking disorganized and technically unsound), and DeFilippo’s passing scheme and play calling asking too much of the line (pass happy in general, and much of that with Cousins in shotgun throwing from the same spot, with little pocket movement, play action or other deception), they were a real liability. 

With better coaching — OL coaching specifically but also the scheme and play calling hopefully doing a better job of maximizing talent while limiting the effect of weaknesses — I think they can have a good offense even with just a half decent OL, as they did in 2017. 

23 hours ago, vegas492 said:

given their cap situation next year, over by $12M, they need to do something.  Can't just kick the can down the road with Cousins and still have enough to be under without losing anyone or having room to sign rookies.

To me, Griffen and Joseph are the two guys that could be gone.  While I still really like Griffen and admire what he's done while in the NFL, he's a luxury at this point.  Joseph, I think, is declining some and not what he used to be.  I don't think you create enough cap space by extending them and lowering numbers.  I don't think they take that much less to stay.  And if I'm Rhodes, I know I'm better than any other corner on the roster, I'm getting older and I want to be paid top dollar quickly.

The Vikings have a track record of showing loyalty to their players, and getting some flexibility in return. Both Griffen and Joseph were rewarded by the Vikings heading into 2017, with 2 years still left on their contracts, with early extensions that paid them more bonus money and gave them (modest) new guarantees. Griffen has already repaid that to some extent by accepting a pay cut this year. Joseph could be next in line. 

Griffen’s deal will void if he plays anything close to a starter’s role. And if he doesn’t, and the contract is still in force, the Vikings can release him outright (as they obviously would, they’re not going to pay $13M+ in 2020 if he’s not starter caliber in 2019). He might still come back on a cheaper deal as a depth player, assuming Weatherly is extended and is on track to start in 2020. Robison similarly took a cheaper short term deal in a similar situation, in 2016, with Hunter ascending to the starter’s role.

Joseph likewise is highly unlikely to see his 2020 contract as written. I think he’s a good candidate for a pay cut renegotiation with more guaranteed money. 

You’re talking about Rhodes as if he’s underpaid or might have some argument for asking for more money. He actually has the 4th highest CB contract in the league, both by total value and AAV. His cap hit was 8th in 2017, 4th last year and projected at 8th again this year.

And Rhodes didn’t play well last year. He was often hurt and struggled in several games, well off the form he showed in 2017. He’ll be 30 next year and likely to start (or continue) to decline. Waynes and Alexander matched or exceeded his performance last year, and I think that trend will continue. If they develop as expected, Hughes and/or Hill will surpass him too, before long. I’ll be pretty surprised if Rhodes is still on the team for more than 2 more years, and he may be gone before 2020, unless his game improves considerably. The Vikings could use his cap space to retain at least one of Waynes or Alexander (probably Alexander, he was great at the end of last year).

Long story short, I’d expect Griffen, Joseph and Rhodes to be phased out in the next year or two, either released entirely (Griffen quite likely next year), or renegotiated for a cheaper price in a reduced role.

I don’t think that will spell the end of the line for Zimmer’s defense. They’ve already turned over several positions since the defense first gelled into a top unit in 2015:

• Hunter has taken over Griffen’s role as the star edge rusher. He’s still only 24, and signed long term to a sweetheart deal
• Harris took over Sendejo’s role as the free safety, played better than Sendejo ever did. He’s a RFA, in line for an extension
• Alexander upgraded Munnerlyn at NCB. He has one year left on his rookie deal, seems a likely candidate for an extension
• Waynes was promoted to starter after Newman retired and Hughes/Hill played as the rotational 3rd outside CB, without much of a dropoff in quality

Beyond that, Barr and Kendricks are in their primes at LB and signed to long term extensions, so LB is in good shape.

Harrison Smith is 30 now but still playing at a very high level. His game should age well if he stays healthy.

They will need to promote depth to replace Griffen assuming he’s gone. Weatherly looks like he can be a starting caliber DE. They have a few promising depth options including Bower and Odenigbo, both of whom have been excellent in preseason but haven’t had a chance to play in the regular season yet. The Vikings have a great track record coaching up DL talent, so I expect them not to have too much trouble finding a DE3. 

They have a question mark at 3-tech DT but they haven’t had a long-term solution at the position since Floyd’s botched knee surgery. I think Jalyn Holmes and company can probably play at Tom Johnson’s level even if not at Sheldon Richardson’s. 

They do need Joseph to stick around as the early downs NT since I don’t see an comparable replacement on the roster. 

There’ll be some turnover in the CB room but as long as Hughes develops (he had some very nice moments in preseason but then was up and down in games before getting hurt), they should be in good shape there.

Defenses typically aren’t very consistent in the NFL, so I think there will no doubt be some down moments for Zimmer’s group in the years ahead. But I think the personnel will be good enough to expect the Vikings defense to continue to be one of the better groups in the league for the next few years, as long as Zimmer and his position coaches are around. 

The bigger question as you said is whether Kubiak and Dennison can turn their young talent into a solid offensive line, and whether Cousins can finally put it together and elevate his performance in big games. Both of those questions could turn out fine this year, but I don’t think any Vikings fan should be too confident they will.

[vegas492]

4 minutes ago, Krauser said:

 

• Hunter has taken over Griffen’s role as the star edge rusher. He’s still only 24, and signed long term to a sweetheart deal
• Harris took over Sendejo’s role as the free safety, played better than Sendejo ever did. He’s a RFA, in line for an extension
• Alexander upgraded Munnerlyn at NCB. He has one year left on his rookie deal, seems a likely candidate for an extension
• Waynes was promoted to starter after Newman retired and Hughes/Hill played as the rotational 3rd outside CB, without much of a dropoff in quality

 

Sorry for cherrypicking.  And thank you for the detailed response.

The above points out a few interesting things...I really liked Harris, he's in line for a nice payday.  You like Alexander...pay raise.  Waynes...pay raise.

Not counting Griffen, there are 16 free agents.  Notable ones are Harris (S), Alexander (CB), Waynes (CB), Jones (C) and Weatherly (DE).

You don't simply get them back by doing an extension with a player, not when you are projected $12M over the cap.  Cutting $17-18M off of the cap gets you to a point to where you can sign rookies, say nothing about your own, or free agents.

I still don't see how the Vikes keep everyone.  Sure the roster will still be fine, but there is going to be a few vets released.

Very much guessing Griffen and Joseph are two likely candidates.  Then make a decision on Cousins and see if that cap hit can be lowered.  Even then....it's tough.

[Krauser]

I agree there will be some changes. 

I don’t think the decisions will seem especially tough by this time next year. One more year will tell us a lot about how Rhodes, Griffen and Joseph will do in their 30s, which of their prime age players (the CBs, especially) deserve extensions, and who among their younger players are ready to step up. So when the changes arrive, they’ll seem more inevitable than they do from this vantage point.

Next year, they can remove Griffen’s contract, rework Joseph’s so his 2020 cap hit is about half of what it stands to be now, and either release Rhodes in favor of keeping both Waynes and Alexander, or keep him on a reworked deal to lower his cap hit while extending Alexander. 

On top of that, they could release Reiff (but I think they won’t) or Rudolph (probably stays through 2020), extend Cousins in such a way that lowers his cap hit (which they will if the offense is successful this year), and rework existing veteran contracts (extend Smith early, move salary into bonuses for Hunter, Diggs and/or Barr) to move money around. None of those moves will be especially difficult, they can find at least some cap space if they need to. 

I agree that that probably won’t allow them to add anything significant in outside free agency, but when well over half of your current roster is on veteran contracts (Cousins, Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, Reiff, Kline, Griffen, Hunter, Joseph, Stephen, Barr, Kendricks, Rhodes, Waynes (option year) and Smith — that’s 15 of 22 starters), it’s hard to find too many additions that would have to be made at a premium price unless one of the current names was being replaced, in which case obviously taking that player off the books would open up cap space (in almost every case, except Cousins). 

The problem with the Vikings roster is not that they’re too expensive, but that they’re not quite good enough. The defense seems to have peaked or plateaued as very good to excellent but they wilted in the 2017 playoffs when more elite units (2013 Seahawks, 2015 Broncos) carried their teams to championships. The offense has had a few good moments, especially in 2017, but between the uncertainty and inconsistency at QB and the coaching turnover, they haven’t been a reliable unit. And they’ve had horrible luck with kickers, which among other things cost them a playoff game, and injuries, which among other things cost them a franchise QB on a rookie contract. 

Now some of their best players are starting to age out and will need to be replaced. I think they’ll be able to maintain a reasonably good level of performance on defense even during that transition, but I doubt they can somehow find another gear and exceed their recent peak. 

The NFL is insanely competitive, so anything less than a perfect storm of talent, coaching and clutch performance isn’t enough to get the job done. The Vikings have built a strong roster, and they’re a good team, but unless they improve significantly this year, they won’t win it all. 

Edited July 2, 2019 by Krauser

[vegas492]

So you are saying that Rhodes could be a casualty.  Interesting.  I did not realize that he had fallen off that much.

Last year here are a couple corners that I found that got deals.  Justin Coleman, 2 years, $18M.  Kareem Jackson, 2 years, $23M.  Steven Nelson, 1 year $9M.  Robert Alford, 1 year, $9M. 

Don't get me wrong, a couple of those names are good players, but they aren't young AND good.  Not like Waynes and Alexander.  Guessing they are each worth north of $10M/year average. 

For the sake of math, Rhodes is gone after 2019.  $12.9 against the cap, $4.8 of dead money.  That nets out $8.1M.  Maybe, just maybe releasing him gets you to the first year money for Waynes or Alexander.

Say nothing about Harris at safety, whom I admire.  ...or the $12M needed to get under the cap.  ....or the $5-6M needed to sign rookies.

No real point here, other than corners, even just decent ones, are expensive and the Vikes will look somewhat different in 2020.

[Packerraymond]

5 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Sorry for cherrypicking.  And thank you for the detailed response.

The above points out a few interesting things...I really liked Harris, he's in line for a nice payday.  You like Alexander...pay raise.  Waynes...pay raise.

Not counting Griffen, there are 16 free agents.  Notable ones are Harris (S), Alexander (CB), Waynes (CB), Jones (C) and Weatherly (DE).

You don't simply get them back by doing an extension with a player, not when you are projected $12M over the cap.  Cutting $17-18M off of the cap gets you to a point to where you can sign rookies, say nothing about your own, or free agents.

I still don't see how the Vikes keep everyone.  Sure the roster will still be fine, but there is going to be a few vets released.

Very much guessing Griffen and Joseph are two likely candidates.  Then make a decision on Cousins and see if that cap hit can be lowered.  Even then....it's tough.

They won't be over the cap, that number includes all 90 members of the roster, once the top 51 kicks in next year they'll be under. Not a ton but probably 10-15m. There's not really such a thing as being over the cap anymore with the new TV deals. I don't think I've seen a team more than 1-3m over going into an offseason. The Vikings will be fine, they'll have an offseason very similar to this year's, room to re-sign one of their own to a nice deal and then minor outside deals.

[Norm]

39 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

They won't be over the cap, that number includes all 90 members of the roster, once the top 51 kicks in next year they'll be under. Not a ton but probably 10-15m. There's not really such a thing as being over the cap anymore with the new TV deals. I don't think I've seen a team more than 1-3m over going into an offseason. The Vikings will be fine, they'll have an offseason very similar to this year's, room to re-sign one of their own to a nice deal and then minor outside deals.

Pretty sure the Chiefs were over like nearly 20m going into an offseason not many years ago. Saints have been over multiple times going into it well above a couple million.

[Krauser]

6 hours ago, vegas492 said:

So you are saying that Rhodes could be a casualty.  Interesting.  I did not realize that he had fallen off that much.

Last year here are a couple corners that I found that got deals.  Justin Coleman, 2 years, $18M.  Kareem Jackson, 2 years, $23M.  Steven Nelson, 1 year $9M.  Robert Alford, 1 year, $9M. 

Don't get me wrong, a couple of those names are good players, but they aren't young AND good.  Not like Waynes and Alexander.  Guessing they are each worth north of $10M/year average. 

For the sake of math, Rhodes is gone after 2019.  $12.9 against the cap, $4.8 of dead money.  That nets out $8.1M.  Maybe, just maybe releasing him gets you to the first year money for Waynes or Alexander.

Say nothing about Harris at safety, whom I admire.  ...or the $12M needed to get under the cap.  ....or the $5-6M needed to sign rookies.

No real point here, other than corners, even just decent ones, are expensive and the Vikes will look somewhat different in 2020.

Rhodes was pretty bad last year. Maybe he’ll bounce back, but even if he does I think he’s only got a couple of good years left. If he doesn’t, I think they should release him. 

Alexander was very good. He’s a nickel, and the market for NCB is topped by Coleman’s UFA deal with the Lions, for $9M AAV ($36M/4 not $18M/2, for the record). Bryce Callahan was excellent in the NCB role with the Bears and got $21M/3 from Denver. If they extend Alexander early, they could probably keep him to $7-8M.

Waynes has been pretty good. He’d be worth keeping for CB2 money, if they can sign him for that. Amukamara’s deal from last year ($27M/3) adjusted for cap inflation would be something like $10-11M. That’s fair, but I wouldn’t go much higher than that. 

Cap savings for the balance of Rhodes deal would be $36M/3 if he’s released before 2020. $8M+ saved for 2020 would be more than enough room to fit in the first year of an extension for one of Waynes or Alexander. They could even keep both for a minimal increase to the cap over those 3 years with Rhodes gone.

I think they’ll extend Alexander and keep only one of the outside corners (Rhodes or Waynes). Mike Hughes and Holton Hill can be the other 2 outside CBs (Zimmer likes to rotate 3 outside corners excluding the NCB), with one of them starting across from Waynes or Rhodes. Hughes and Hill were respectable as rookies, and Zimmer has a great track record of developing corners, so I don’t think there’ll be a big dropoff in their secondary play going through that change.

There will be some changes, but there already have been similar changes over the past few years, during which the defense has continued to perform well as young guys have stepped into larger roles. No guarantee that trend will continue, but it’s reasonable for Vikings fans to be optimistic that the defense will remain a strength for the next few years. 

Edited July 3, 2019 by Krauser