Future of NFC North...Cap Stuff

[vegas492]

On 7/2/2019 at 6:12 PM, Packerraymond said:

They won't be over the cap, that number includes all 90 members of the roster, once the top 51 kicks in next year they'll be under. Not a ton but probably 10-15m. There's not really such a thing as being over the cap anymore with the new TV deals. I don't think I've seen a team more than 1-3m over going into an offseason. The Vikings will be fine, they'll have an offseason very similar to this year's, room to re-sign one of their own to a nice deal and then minor outside deals.

 

I finally looked it up...

Spotrac has the Vikes at $30M over in 2020.  OTC has them at $12M over.  The difference is the entire roster versus top 51.

So the Vikes will be $12M over, and have to set aside money for rookies.

Not the end of the world, but thinking that this roster is sustainable past this year simply isn't realistic.  A vet or two will be let go and they are going to lose a couple of their free agents.

Just for funsies...If I screw around with Spotrac and release Griffen/Joseph, while only looking at the top 51....Vikes are $338,000 under.  That is without re-signing their own free agents or restructuring current deals.

To get further under the cap, I had to re-structure Harrison Smith and Reiff.  Now I"m at $12M under.  Room enough to possibly re-sign a corner and most but probably not all rookies.

No real point to this, other than the $12M over the cap only takes into account the top 51 contracts.  They've got this year as their year before things get a little tricky.  Not impossible, but tricky.

[Krauser]

12 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Not the end of the world, but thinking that this roster is sustainable past this year simply isn't realistic.  A vet or two will be let go and they are going to lose a couple of their free agents.

Letting go of a vet or two is not the same thing as the "end of the roster".

Some of their better players from recent years are aging out and will be replaced: Griffen almost certainly in 2020, and likely Joseph and/or Rhodes not long after. No doubt, some of their free agents will move on: probably one of Waynes or Alexander, Treadwell if he isn't cut already this year, and some depth pieces like Rashod Hill, Jayron Kearse and Eric Wilson.

But they will have options to retain the homegrown, prime age talent that has earned a larger role. I expect they will extend Harris and Weatherly and probably Alexander. They can find that cap space by releasing players, getting vets to take pay cuts, and restructuring or extending some of their more expensive contracts to lower cap hits in their short term.

All of those changes can happen organically: the players who get replaced will be the ones who deserve to, based on their recent performances and the emergence of younger talent to take their place. The roster will not be sustained as is, but it never should be -- aging and declining players need to be replaced, and depth players and role players will get turned over.

That process has been ongoing, including last year when Waynes replaced Newman and Hughes/Hill worked into the CB rotation, Harris took over at FS after Sendejo got hurt, Kearse rotated in as a big nickel slot safety, and Weatherly stepped up as a DE starter when Griffen went out. The defense took a small step back with those changes (2nd in DVOA in 2017 to 4th last year) but they were still very good overall.

This year, they will ask more from Harris, Weatherly, Hughes, Hill and their young depth at DT. Defenses do tend to be inconsistent and nothing comes with a guarantee in the NFL. But based on the Vikings track record developing talent on defense, I wouldn't hold your breath for them to drop off too far, even when they do move on from some of their veterans.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

Letting go of a vet or two is not the same thing as the "end of the roster".

Some of their better players from recent years are aging out and will be replaced: Griffen almost certainly in 2020, and likely Joseph and/or Rhodes not long after. No doubt, some of their free agents will move on: probably one of Waynes or Alexander, Treadwell if he isn't cut already this year, and some depth pieces like Rashod Hill, Jayron Kearse and Eric Wilson.

But they will have options to retain the homegrown, prime age talent that has earned a larger role. I expect they will extend Harris and Weatherly and probably Alexander. They can find that cap space by releasing players, getting vets to take pay cuts, and restructuring or extending some of their more expensive contracts to lower cap hits in their short term.

All of those changes can happen organically: the players who get replaced will be the ones who deserve to, based on their recent performances and the emergence of younger talent to take their place. The roster will not be sustained as is, but it never should be -- aging and declining players need to be replaced, and depth players and role players will get turned over.

That process has been ongoing, including last year when Waynes replaced Newman and Hughes/Hill worked into the CB rotation, Harris took over at FS after Sendejo got hurt, Kearse rotated in as a big nickel slot safety, and Weatherly stepped up as a DE starter when Griffen went out. The defense took a small step back with those changes (2nd in DVOA in 2017 to 4th last year) but they were still very good overall.

This year, they will ask more from Harris, Weatherly, Hughes, Hill and their young depth at DT. Defenses do tend to be inconsistent and nothing comes with a guarantee in the NFL. But based on the Vikings track record developing talent on defense, I wouldn't hold your breath for them to drop off too far, even when they do move on from some of their veterans.

Cool thoughts.

You know their roster better than I.

When fans talk about the "window", I feel like this is as wide open a window as the Vikings are going to have.  It is a pretty amazing roster.  Not saying the future won't look good, but I have a hard time believing it will be better than how it looks on paper today.

[Joe]

Sounds like Minny will live and die by Cousins' arm...