Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Karnage84

With the 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select...

Recommended Posts

The Detroit Lions are facing a rather interesting 2019 season. After a lackluster 6-10 season under Patricia's first year, the Lions have a lot of pressure to win games and start knocking on the door of the playoffs. Unfortunately, we are in a very difficult NFC North and have a rather difficult schedule. According to Fanspeak, the Lions will pick #6 overall in the 2020 Draft.

Since it's the summer and there isn't a heck of a lot to talk about right now, I decided to put together a "what if" scenario to see how it might play out.

WHAT HAPPENS TO LEAD TO #6 OVERALL

The Lions are going to have to nearly repeat this past season and even take a step back in the W/L column. A win over the Kingsbury/Kyler Murray Cardinals in Week 1 does not seem to be asking much, however the Lions will be facing the Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs before going on their bye week. We can expect to be looking at a 1-3 Lions team practically out of the gate. The Lions could split the next four games, with losses to the Packers (in Aaron Rodgers revenge) and a revamped Raiders team. The Lions steal a home win from the rival Vikings and the Eli Manning-led Giants. Halfway through the season and we are sitting at 3-5.

Chicago (twice), Dallas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Denver and Green Bay add to the L column. The Lions steal a road win from an up and down Washington team. Detroit finishes the season at 4-12.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

Offense

  • The OL struggles to protect Stafford
  • Leads to a down year for QB1 and he gets shut down in the latter half of the season due to injury
  • The lack of talent and depth at WR shows its cracks
  • Kerryon struggles with injury but is effective when he is on the field

Defense

  • Snacks continues to hold out and is eventually traded for a late round pick. The rush defense takes a slight step back but generally holds up well enough
  • The secondary is developing well enough but there is not a firm grasp on the CB2 position just yet.

With the defense performing at an adequate level, it is the offense that holds the team back. The lack of protection leads to poor production and the offense is unable to keep up with the high flying offenses around the league. The front office still believes that Stafford has a chance to bounce back in 2020 with a better supporting cast. The money on the books (dead cap) helps in that decision. If there is another down year in 2020, we are likely looking at a total rebuild with an eye towards a strong QB class with Trevor Lawrence leading the pack.

2020 DRAFT (Based on Fanspeak's Big Board)

1) Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: The Lions aren't yet ready to give up on Stafford and they are more comfortable with the 2021 QB class if this does lead to a total rebuild. Protection was an issue and likely will continue to be an issue for a future QB. Wagner is not the long term solution at RT and the Lions are still determining whether Decker is the solution at LT. Thomas has the potential to be a book-end tackle for years to come

2) Collin Johnson, WR, Texas: The lack of weapons hurt the offense in 2019. Amendola was a stop-gap and Marvin Jones continued to deal with injury. Kenny G continued his ascent as the WR1 but was hindered by the lack of help at the position. Johnson is far from a burner but was a productive #2 with the Longhorns and should take a step even further as the #1 option. He has really good size and fairly reliable hands down field. TJ Hockenson is expected to develop as the #2/3 option after a decent but unspectacular rookie season.

3) Nate Stanley, QB, Iowa: The injury to Stafford exposed the Lions' weakness at back up QB. Stanley has prototypical size, relatively decent production and a prior rapport with Hockenson while at Iowa. Stanley will have a chance to develop and potentially be a future starter.

4) AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College: A RB in the mold of LeGarrette Blount, Dillon is added to the stable of RB's as a power compliment to Ty Johnson's speed and Kerryon's all around, yet injury plagued ability. The Lions will be moving more towards a RBBC.

5) Bobby Roundtree, LB/Edge, Illinois: At 6'5 and 255 lbs, Roundtree has the size the Lions look for at LB. His production of 7.5 sacks and 7 PD's also bodes well for his ability to be Devon Kennard's eventual replacement.

6) Mike Panasiuk, DL, Michigan State: 6'4 and 285 lbs, Panasiuk has potential as a rotational player at DE.

Without factoring in free agency, the team uses this draft to address some of the major holes on offense: future franchise OT (LT or RT is TBD); a threat out wide; a QB project that could develop into a starter or future trade capital; a RB that can help shoulder some of the load and two guys to help reload the DL. The Lions could address some of the other holes (additional WR depth, interior OL) through FA utilizing the solid amount of cap space they have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

The Lions aren't yet ready to give up on Stafford and they are more comfortable with the 2021 QB class if this does lead to a total rebuild.

Does that mean 2020 becomes a tank for Trevor Lawrence campaign? Do you think Quinn and Patricia have that long of a leash?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Nnivolcm said:

Does that mean 2020 becomes a tank for Trevor Lawrence campaign? Do you think Quinn and Patricia have that long of a leash?

I don't think it would be a "tank for Trevor" campaign, at least not for the first half of the season. In this scenario, the culmination of all the hits has taken its toll on Stafford. If we struggle for the first half of the 2020 season I can see Stafford being traded as the first step towards a rebuild.

I think it would depend on the actual cause of the decline and the perception of said cause along with the rest of the roster. If we hit on guys like Walker, Tavai, Oruwariye, Hockenson, etc. and the losses seem to stem from bad luck or the QB cap hit hinders our ability to sign solid depth then maybe they could survive that. Is Stafford holding back an otherwise solid roster or has Quinn done a lackluster job at stockpiling talent? If they move on from Stafford and then seem to be competitive with a guy like Stanley, I'd say Patricia and Quinn could survive. If it's another clusterf*** year with 4 wins, they're probably going to blow things up with a new HC/GM. If they finish out the back half strong, they might be able to draft their QBOTF.

I think we would need clear evidence of what the problems are in holding the team back. It would have to be a scenario that could be turned around quickly. If we're looking at another 3 year build then the team is probably going to be looking at cleaning house and starting fresh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol if we go 4-12 I want a new qb period.and with that kinda record might as well tank for the number one pick..

And wth are the records of the other teams picking in the top 5...

Think it's gonna be a little obvious they go ol a few decent ones coming out.. I personally would redo the whole freakn line except ragnow if we had that kind of record 

Buuut these guys are to stupid ...... they will again win some meaningless games at the end of the year where the others are obviously trying to lose

Rinse and repeat

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Rockcity2 said:

Lol if we go 4-12 I want a new qb period.and with that kinda record might as well tank for the number one pick..

And wth are the records of the other teams picking in the top 5...

Think it's gonna be a little obvious they go ol a few decent ones coming out.. I personally would redo the whole freakn line except ragnow if we had that kind of record 

Buuut these guys are to stupid ...... they will again win some meaningless games at the end of the year where the others are obviously trying to lose

Rinse and repeat

 

FML... I had a longer response that IE decided to throw away.

Long and short - who do you blame for a 4-12 season? Stafford? Patricia? Quinn? Everybody? When is it financially feasible to move on from Stafford? Who do you replace him with? If we start fresh with a new HC/GM, they will probably want to draft their own QB. So either: the Lions pull the plug quickly and start afresh in 2020; assume Stafford is the issue and draft his successor, buying more time for MP and BQ; give this duo another year and then blow things up with an eye on the 2021 draft under a new regime.

There are several teams with a lot of cap space that could be in need of a new QB in 2020 (in order of cap space, not need): Dallas, Miami, Tampa Bay, New York Giants, LA Chargers, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans.

If Dalls (for example) isn't convinced that Dak is the guy and that Stafford has had a bad rap in Detroit, he could be a target for a team that believes they're in the hunt for the playoffs. Stafford's $31M salary is actually at a discount compared to what Dak's new contract will look like and the Lions would also eat some of that along the way.

OL: I'm not convinced the Lions are sold on Decker and want to wait things out to see on him. He's under contract and becomes a FA in 2021, so they can afford to see how it shakes out.

(Age in 2020) - Free Agency Year

LT: Decker (26); FA - 2021

LG:

OC: Ragnow (24) - FA - 2022/2023

RG: Glasgow (28) - FA - 2020

RT: Wagner (31) - FA - 2022

We'll see how Glasgow performs at RG. LG is still wide open unless we expect Wiggins or someone else to come from out of left field. We have 3/5 starters signed for at least the 2019 and 2020 seasons. The OL could be a major factor in whether we go 4-12 this season or if they overperform expectations and keep Stafford upright.

Edited by Karnage84

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think I'd put most of the blame on Quinn... I hear yada yada about scheme fit but imo you take the talent... all this is gonna do is set us back big time if they are fired.. I mean your telling me we have a defensive minded coach that can't coach up talent... no way if I was a owner of this team that has done nothing would allow this.

I like Stafford but if he needs the world to get it done I'm not paying him and would take the hit.. make or break year for him,for me anyway... And with that shaky line doubt it's much better.. bevell is pretty predictable imo too so there's that 

Injury prone rb.. injury prone wrs..

Are defence better be epic...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Rockcity2 said:

Think I'd put most of the blame on Quinn... I hear yada yada about scheme fit but imo you take the talent... all this is gonna do is set us back big time if they are fired.. I mean your telling me we have a defensive minded coach that can't coach up talent... no way if I was a owner of this team that has done nothing would allow this.

I like Stafford but if he needs the world to get it done I'm not paying him and would take the hit.. make or break year for him,for me anyway... And with that shaky line doubt it's much better.. bevell is pretty predictable imo too so there's that 

Injury prone rb.. injury prone wrs..

Are defence better be epic...

Given that Quinn hired Patricia and is the architect behind this whole 'Patriots - Midwest', I would agree with you. He would be the one to blame if things do go south. If they do decide to break away from the NE tree then Patricia would likely not last as HC either. I think it's a lot less likely that Patricia survives Quinn with a slight possibility that Quinn could survive Patricia. Probably not a very good chance since he picked MP over Vrabel, who has shown more promise in their respective first years.

We haven't seen what Bevell's offense will look like, so I will hold off on any assumptions (positive or negative) just yet. It couldn't have gone well  if we're sitting at 4-12 and the defense wasn't the reason to blame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Pretty sure the house needs to be cleaned and started over if the Lions come with a 4-12 record.

I can't even think of 1 legitimate reason to keep the FO/Coaches if they pull a 4-12. 

Stafford? Eh, might as well trade him too at that point. New FO, new coach, they'll need assets and likely want a different QB. 

To be honest with everyone I'm counting on something like this to happen, straight up expecting it, so, I've been peaking around the corner and looking around the league for top notch FO people that deserve a chance to run a team. Not that it matters, I don't get to hire them, but I just like seeing how incapable the FORD'S are when a guy on his computer can think about hiring better candidates to run my fake team than they can do in real life.

I don't mind being cynical anymore, I completely understand the Lions are just pumping the cow for cash/money vs actually committing/committed and trying to win something. They're no better than the Pistons currently. I don't even plan on watching them come Sundays because... why? I'm expecting 4-12 lol. I'll wait to be pleasantly surprised before I waste my Sundays again this fall. 

Edited by SimbaWho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/4/2019 at 4:57 PM, Karnage84 said:

Given that Quinn hired Patricia and is the architect behind this whole 'Patriots - Midwest', I would agree with you. He would be the one to blame if things do go south. If they do decide to break away from the NE tree then Patricia would likely not last as HC either. I think it's a lot less likely that Patricia survives Quinn with a slight possibility that Quinn could survive Patricia. Probably not a very good chance since he picked MP over Vrabel, who has shown more promise in their respective first years.

We haven't seen what Bevell's offense will look like, so I will hold off on any assumptions (positive or negative) just yet. It couldn't have gone well  if we're sitting at 4-12 and the defense wasn't the reason to blame.

This whole patriots crap does nothing but piss me off.. And will be their downfall.. they think their one step ahead of them when the pats are 5 ahead of them.. I litterly think they are trolling us.. it's been 2 drafts now that when we pick a guy it's oh the patriots liked him... WHO GIVES A CRAP! Then this last one lead to a really bad overdraft.. mean when does it stop.

This is maybe the biggest reason I want them out... does mp really think he can become bb...give me a fn break you gonna turn Stafford into Brady wtf this is just stupid 

Now we are drafting people bc they "heard" they like them.. GTFO go be a slappy somewhere else.. let's get someone who can atleast think for themselves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎06‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 2:37 PM, Rockcity2 said:

This whole patriots crap does nothing but piss me off.. And will be their downfall.. they think their one step ahead of them when the pats are 5 ahead of them.. I litterly think they are trolling us.. it's been 2 drafts now that when we pick a guy it's oh the patriots liked him... WHO GIVES A CRAP! Then this last one lead to a really bad overdraft.. mean when does it stop.

This is maybe the biggest reason I want them out... does mp really think he can become bb...give me a fn break you gonna turn Stafford into Brady wtf this is just stupid 

Now we are drafting people bc they "heard" they like them.. GTFO go be a slappy somewhere else.. let's get someone who can atleast think for themselves

Honestly, I think you're simplifying some of these things and adding negative spin. Quinn was brought up in the tradition of the Pats. That is the system he's used to scouting for and the players he prefers fit in that mold. Matt Patricia ran the defense that Quinn was scouting for and is trying to run it here. If there is a general philosophy in scheme, a player that fits in New England is also likely to be a good fit in Detroit, Miami (now with Flores), etc. When drafting, you do have to anticipate the selections and preferences of the other front office's. The Lions really liked Tavai and didn't expect he would be there for them in round 3. They took a guy that fit exactly what they wanted and they guaranteed he would be on their roster. He could be a Pro Bowler and he could be a bust. Same goes with Greedy. Darius Leonard just won DROY and was considered a reach by the Colts. Jamarcus Russell went #1 overall. Which pick would you rather bust on - a QB at #1 overall or a 2nd round LB?

Every single coach in the league was taught by another coach and utilize the schemes and systems that they were raised in. They will bring their own flavours to it but overall they're running the same schemes and concepts. If we bring in another new HC or GM, they'll also have been taught by another coach and bring in that same system they used before.

We can't go back and change the draft. The players that we selected are going to wind up on the field and will either help us win or lose some games. I'm hoping for more W's but I also will temper my expectations until proven otherwise. That loss to the Jets destroyed any instant optimism I could give to MP. There's a lot of stuff that could go against the Lions favour. It's a tough schedule in a really tough division.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

Honestly, I think you're simplifying some of these things and adding negative spin. Quinn was brought up in the tradition of the Pats. That is the system he's used to scouting for and the players he prefers fit in that mold. Matt Patricia ran the defense that Quinn was scouting for and is trying to run it here. If there is a general philosophy in scheme, a player that fits in New England is also likely to be a good fit in Detroit, Miami (now with Flores), etc. When drafting, you do have to anticipate the selections and preferences of the other front office's. The Lions really liked Tavai and didn't expect he would be there for them in round 3. They took a guy that fit exactly what they wanted and they guaranteed he would be on their roster. He could be a Pro Bowler and he could be a bust. Same goes with Greedy. Darius Leonard just won DROY and was considered a reach by the Colts. Jamarcus Russell went #1 overall. Which pick would you rather bust on - a QB at #1 overall or a 2nd round LB?

Every single coach in the league was taught by another coach and utilize the schemes and systems that they were raised in. They will bring their own flavours to it but overall they're running the same schemes and concepts. If we bring in another new HC or GM, they'll also have been taught by another coach and bring in that same system they used before.

We can't go back and change the draft. The players that we selected are going to wind up on the field and will either help us win or lose some games. I'm hoping for more W's but I also will temper my expectations until proven otherwise. That loss to the Jets destroyed any instant optimism I could give to MP. There's a lot of stuff that could go against the Lions favour. It's a tough schedule in a really tough division.

Ya but like I said he is over drafting guy to fit said scheme... I mean you could of used that 2ndrp so many different ways.. probably could of gotten a player who is succeeding in the league and probably at a pro bowl level... he imo is just filling holes with these top pick at the expense of talent... he is not getting the value of what these picks are worth imo

Drafting purely for scheme does nothing but set this team back even further if they are fired.. idea should be to get the talent not flippn body types... but hey I'm not gonna get to much into it bc I don't see him lasting much longer anyway 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Rockcity2 said:

Ya but like I said he is over drafting guy to fit said scheme... I mean you could of used that 2ndrp so many different ways.. probably could of gotten a player who is succeeding in the league and probably at a pro bowl level... he imo is just filling holes with these top pick at the expense of talent... he is not getting the value of what these picks are worth imo

Drafting purely for scheme does nothing but set this team back even further if they are fired.. idea should be to get the talent not flippn body types... but hey I'm not gonna get to much into it bc I don't see him lasting much longer anyway 

Darius Leonard was also considered to be "over drafted" until he won DROY. I'm not saying Tavai is going to be that guy but he could be. Tavai is going to be on the field and he could win a Pro Bowl like anyone else. These guys are rookies and we have no idea how they will/can perform at the NFL level. We can't predict the future and to write things off already doesn't seem to make sense to me.

I have zero issues in discussing these decisions with the benefit of hindsight. If Tavai winds up being a total bust and Greedy Williams becomes one of the best CB's in the league, we are probably in line to see a new HC/GM coming in.  At least if you wanted to rail on something, the IOL position is one that we have something to chew on. Wiggins, Aboushi and the other candidates could fit the bill but we haven't seen it work out yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Rockcity2 said:

Ya but like I said he is over drafting guy to fit said scheme... I mean you could of used that 2ndrp so many different ways.. probably could of gotten a player who is succeeding in the league and probably at a pro bowl level... he imo is just filling holes with these top pick at the expense of talent... he is not getting the value of what these picks are worth imo

Drafting purely for scheme does nothing but set this team back even further if they are fired.. idea should be to get the talent not flippn body types... but hey I'm not gonna get to much into it bc I don't see him lasting much longer anyway 

My thoughts on this is if you draft talent over scheme fit, you end up with Kyle Van Noy who struggles until he gets to a scheme that fits his skill set.  You have to draft for scheme, but I also get what you are saying. I still think Tavai was a reach and wanted a handful of others at that point but I would say they scouted him to be a 2nd round talent and that would be on the scouts if he is not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My thoughts on this is if you draft talent over scheme fit, you end up with Kyle Van Noy who struggles until he gets to a scheme that fits his skill set.  You have to draft for scheme, but I also get what you are saying. I still think Tavai was a reach and wanted a handful of others at that point but I would say they scouted him to be a 2nd round talent and that would be on the scouts if he is not. 

Agree on all of this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My thoughts on this is if you draft talent over scheme fit, you end up with Kyle Van Noy who struggles until he gets to a scheme that fits his skill set.  You have to draft for scheme, but I also get what you are saying. I still think Tavai was a reach and wanted a handful of others at that point but I would say they scouted him to be a 2nd round talent and that would be on the scouts if he is not. 

Van Noy was only built for a certain scheme.. idk the reason they drafted him. Bad example iyam 

Was always a bad pick for me.. And again obvious better talent was to be had then also

Same goes tho Quinn gets fired we get what a 7thrp for pineapple... when you coulda had better talent that fits any scheme... you imo draft scheme guys later or fa jmo.. or we can continue this cycle of taking one step forward and 5 back.. we've been doing this same rodeo for years now

I mean let's see what you got before you start throwing our high draft picks at scheme specific player... we need a new owner...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  



×