2019 Season Preview (Pre-training camps)

[dll2000]

All of this is on paper circa July 2019 and pre-catastrophic team changing injuries that always tend to pop up. 

This may take awhile, but I will start with top teams and work my way down.  

Tier One)   The Favorites.

Eagles: 

Why they can win: 

When healthy and with an offseason Carson Wentz has shown he is one of best QBs in the league.  He has great weapons to throw to in Alshon Jeffrey, Desean Jackson, and Zach Ertz.  Nelson Agholor is an above average third WR option.  His Oline is one of the best in the league and with first round draft pick Dillard can withstand an injury.   

Barnett, Cox, Jernigan, Jackson, Graham comprise arguably the best defensive line in the league.  Cox is second best interior d-lineman in the league and is having a HOF career IMO.  He is virtually unblockable, the best player on the team and one of leagues top players regardless of position.  

They have one of the best coaching staffs in the league even after many guys have been poached.  Front office and staff are on the same page.

Why they may lose:

Many of key players are injury prone or aging.   Not generally fair to list injuries as why a team may lose as that could happen to anyone.  It is fair when players have had a history of injury and missing games.   Wentz is injury prone.  Barnett is injury prone.  Jeffrey is injury prone.  Jones is injury prone.  Jason Peters is 37 years old.  Jackson is 32.  Jenkins is 31.  Curry is 31.   The back half of the defense is suspect.  Jenkins is a stud, but rest of guys play poorly at times and without frontline dominating would be exposed.

Howard had trouble running from the shot gun in 2018 and the rookie Sanders has already been injured.   Good news is they have arguable best O line in the league to work with.  

Obviously Wentz is the key, with Foles gone if Wentz goes down again the Eagles are toast.

Two most indispensable players:  Wentz and Cox.  

Saints:

Why they can win:

They have a HOF QB still playing near top of his game.  They have one of best WRs in the game in Michael Thomas.  They have one of best dual threat RBs in the league in Alvin Kamara.  They have one of the best Olines the league.  That tri-fecta along with the O-line virtually guarantees they can score a lot of points.

Jordan, Rankins, Brown and Davenport give them a well above average D line.   While Apple, Bell, Williams and Lattimore give them one of best, as a group, secondaries in the league to pair with it.

Why they may lose:  

Brees is 40 years old.  He is going to hit a wall at some point, maybe this year.  They have a lot of no names next to and behind their star and elite players.  They have been mortgaging a lot to win in this window and it is costing them depth.

They need to stay remarkably healthy or it could turn from another SB run to disaster in a hurry.

Two most indispensable players:   Brees and Thomas.  Lattimore a close third.

Rams:

Why they can win:

Superbowl and Bears game not withstanding, Rams still have an elite offense.  Goff has an elite arm, even if he doesn't always make best decisions with it.  They have one of most underrated WR corps in NFL in Cooks, Kupp, and Woods, losing the not talked about Kupp was devasting to them last year and they may be 2018 Superbowl champs but for that injury.  

Their TEs are very underrated as well, at least as receivers in Everett and Higbee.  They drafted college football's most explosive RB in Henderson and Gurley's legs should be healed at least for a time.  This is arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy.

They have the games most dominant defensive player in Aaron Donald.  They have other good players on dline as well in Brockers and a rejuvenated, reinvented Fowler.  Weddle, Talib, Peters and Roby give them a play making secondary on paper.  

Why they may lose:

When running game isn't clicking or scary Goff goes from looking elite to a bum.  Suh was just a guy most of year, but late in season and in playoffs he was a beast.  Losing him is not nothing.  The defense was kind of awful without Talib despite a lot of big names and Donald dominating.  When Talib returned to play the defense really turned around, but it did expose some guys as overrated or at least needing help.  Likewise losing Kupp really hurt the offensive production more than anyone would expect. 

Super bowl hangover may bite them like it has so many others.  Their division mostly sucked last year and this year it seems vastly improved or at least dangerous. 

Two most indispensable players:  Donald and Goff, but also Talib and Kupp it seems.

Bears:

Why they can win:

Bears revamped most of offense in 2018 both in scheme and personnel.  They were playing many first or second year players, an extremely inexperienced QB. and their no. 1 WR was coming off an ACL.  Despite all that they managed to score a lot of points.  Some games they looked great, some medicore and some really bad.  However, experience alone should see them better and more consistent in 2019 as almost everyone of note is returning and they have revamped running game to fit their system with additions of Patterson, Davis and Montgomery.  

The O line is adequate on outside in Leno and Massie and potentially elite on inside with Long, Daniels and Whitehair. The WRs are very good albeit underrated on paper in Robinson, Gabriel and Miller with excellent depth behind them. 

The defense is the best in the league on paper and has historic potential relative to new offensive dominated league.  Many are saying they will regress without their former DC, but the talent is undeniable led by Mack, Hicks and Goldman upfront, Trevathan and Smith in middle and Fuller and Jackson on backend.  They have legit stars on all three levels of the defense and high end talent manning almost all the other positions.  

Why they may lose:

The RBs are unproven in career back up Mike Davis and rookie Montgomery.   At TE Burton is coming off sports hernia surgery and Shaheen has been injury prone.  Long has not been able to stay healthy for many seasons.   Buster Skrine, the presumed starter replacing Callahan, has not been great in coverage for the NY Jets.   Lack on consistent accuracy has plagued their QB in his young career to date.A

Two most indispensable players:  Trubisky and Mack.  

Chiefs:

Why they can win:

Patrick Mahomes is the best young QB in football.  That alone means they can score points.  They have most explosive offensive player in game in Hill and arguably the games best TE in Kelce  Their O line is adequate

Defensively Chris Jones may be most underrated DL in the game.  A 6'8 300 lb. plus monster who can move.  They added great play makers in Frank Clark and Mathieu.  Fuller is a player on the rise.  

Why they may lose:

They lost their best RB to discipline issues last year.  This year they are going to lose their best WR and playmaker for who knows how many games.  Their gambles on character paid off for a time, but seem to be back firing now.   

Mahomes is dynamic, but the pressure on defenses Hill creates with his elite speed is what generates the crazy stats for this offense.  They don't have Hill the come down to Earth several pegs.

Two most indispensable players:  Mahomes and Hill (Jones a close third)..

Cowboys:

Why they can win:

Their oline may finally be healthy enough to return to the elite status of some years ago.  They have second most talented RB in the league in Elliot who isn't going to be suspended for being a ******.  Cooper's return to his early high end form rejuvenated the Cowboys receiving core and provided them with missing ingredient they needed to score points.   Their QB can put pressure on you with his arm or his legs and while he isn't upper tier or elite, he plays pretty well when running game is going well.  They should be able to score points at a reasonable clip. 

They ended season playing really well defensively and no reason to think that won't continue in 2019.  They managed to resign their best pass rusher in Lawerence and have a top 3 LB unit in Vander Esh and Smith.  

Why they may lose:

Their QB is wildly inconsistent.  After many years in same system and starting he has lost excuse of inexperience and maybe he just isn't that good.   The defensive line lacks depth and talent and so does much of the secondary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[soulman]

Bears.....Super Bowl or Bust.   If they don't win and I lose a bet I may have to wash dishes at Aaron Rodgers restaurant. 

[beardown3231]

I disagree on Skrine. Stats show he was better in 2018 than Callahan. Regardless good write up except you forgot the champs and the team that IMO is the best in football (Chargers).

[dll2000]

13 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I disagree on Skrine. Stats show he was better in 2018 than Callahan. Regardless good write up except you forgot the champs and the team that IMO is the best in football (Chargers).

When we picked up Skrine I watched a bunch of his games on coaches tape. He is good blitzer, but did struggle in coverage a lot.  Callahan wasn't all world, just good, so its not like he was several magnitudes better, but Callahan was better in coverage and Skrine is better blitzer IMO. Actual stats may be different, I don't reallly know, but watching them that is how I saw it.  Hardcore Jets fans seem to agree and I am sure they watched every snap multiple times.  I am not worried if Skrine is starter because of Mack and Jackson.  They will make anyone look better.  Skrine better be on top of his game too because Shelley is coming for his job. 

I had a Chargers write up in there, but then I started looking at their oline and thought to myself no one has ever won a SB with a bad o line and that o line looks pretty bad. That and their only good RB seems really serious about holding out for season like Bell and SD doesn't like to give in. 

Patriots just don't seem quite talented enough top to bottom this season despite Brady and Belichick  I think that slows them a bit.  That's been said before though. They will compete and their division still sucks which helps, but I think like Chargers they are second tier. 

I honestly think biggest problem Bears have is their brutal division and attrition it may cause on roster this season.  NFCN may be best division top to bottom in football this year regardless of how actual records turn out.  If they played in weak division I think their odds are much higher.  

They can't lose Mack or MT.  

 

 

[beardown3231]

44 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

When we picked up Skrine I watched a bunch of his games on coaches tape. He is good blitzer, but did struggle in coverage a lot.  Callahan wasn't all world, just good, so its not like he was several magnitudes better, but Callahan was better in coverage and Skrine is better blitzer IMO. Actual stats may be different, I don't reallly know, but watching them that is how I saw it.  Hardcore Jets fans seem to agree and I am sure they watched every snap multiple times.  I am not worried if Skrine is starter because of Mack and Jackson.  They will make anyone look better.  Skrine better be on top of his game too because Shelley is coming for his job. 

I had a Chargers write up in there, but then I started looking at their oline and thought to myself no one has ever won a SB with a bad o line and that o line looks pretty bad. That and their only good RB seems really serious about holding out for season like Bell and SD doesn't like to give in. 

Patriots just don't seem quite talented enough top to bottom this season despite Brady and Belichick  I think that slows them a bit.  That's been said before though. They will compete and their division still sucks which helps, but I think like Chargers they are second tier. 

I honestly think biggest problem Bears have is their brutal division and attrition it may cause on roster this season.  NFCN may be best division top to bottom in football this year regardless of how actual records turn out.  If they played in weak division I think their odds are much higher.  

They can't lose Mack or MT.  

 

 

Skrine gave up 7.4 yards/target and a 63% completion percentage against. Callahan's was 8.4 and 67% respectively.

LAC's OL isn't good, you're right, but they are so strong everywhere else. The Chargers were 4-0 without Gordon last year, IIRC. They'll be fine with or without him, imo.

I feel like we say that about NE each year but unless Brady or Belichick die, they have as good of a shot as anyone else.