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The Milwaukee Brewers Thread - CY Burnes, 2021 NL Central Champs


ramssuperbowl99

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55 minutes ago, titans0021 said:

That hurts a whole lot.

Yes, but we couldn't keep winning forever.   We've rarely lost 2 games in a row and we've had good success on the road.  Let's take at least one of these games in LA and see what happens.

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First mock offseason. Just want to get Game 2's taste out of my mouth and start organizing some thoughts.

Roster Housekeeping

Here's the start of offseason 40-man roster, with years of service and either known contract values or estimated arbitration salaries using MLBTR's arbitration estimates from above. Players who do not have enough service time to enter arbitration are listed with just years of service, with the number of minor league options noted if applicable.

For the purposes of this list and offseason mock, Joakim Soria's mutual option is bought out, Jordan Lyles' club option is bought out, Mike Moustakas opts out of his mutual option, and Stephen Vogt retires or is not brought back. I also broke this out into MLB level guys, with prospects that have no MLB service time listed at the end separately. I also kind of lazily stuck guys in the positions they fit in best. There's a ton of room for flexibility with this roster obviously, so don't worry about that much now.

Leaving via Free Agency:
Joakim Soria, Mike Moustakas, Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Curtis Granderson, Stephen Vogt

MLB Level Position Players:
C - Manny Pina (3.046 years, Arb 1, ~$1.8MM)
C - Erik Kratz (4.156 years, Super 2 Arb 3, ~$1.7MM)
1B - Jesus Aguilar (2.082 years)
1B - Eric Thames (3.063 years, $6MM)
2B - Jonathan Schoop (5.027 years, Arb 3, ~$10.1MM)
2B - Hernan Perez (4.079, Arb 2, ~$2.7MM)
SS - Orlando Arcia (2.047 years, 1 MiLB option remaining)
SS -Tyler Saladino (3.053 years, Arb 1, ~$1.0MM, 1 MiLB option remaining)
3B - Travis Shaw (3.088 years, Arb 1, ~$5.1MM, 2 MiLB options remaining)
LF - Ryan Braun (11.129 years, $18MM, with $3MM deferred)
CF - Lorenzo Cain (7.074 years, $15MM, with $1MM deferred)
CF - Keon Broxton (2.038 years)
RF - Christian Yelich (5.069 years, $9.75MM)
RF - Domingo Santana (3.024 years, Arb 1, ~$2.0MM)

Minor League Depth
C - Jacob Nottingham (0.054 years, 2 MiLB options remaining)
SS - Mauricio Dubon (0.000 years, 2 MiLB options remaining)

MLB Level Pitchers:
SP - Jhoulys Chacin (8.054 years, $6MM)
SP - Chase Anderson (4.146 years, $6MM)
SP - Jimmy Nelson (4.104 years, Arb 2, ~$3.7MM, 2 MiLB options remaining)
SP - Zach Davies (3.020 years, Arb 1, ~$2.4MM, 2 MiLB options remaining)
SP - Junior Guerra (2.155 years, 1 MiLB option remaining)

HL RP - Corey Knebel (3.151 years, Arb 1, ~$4.9MM, 1 MiLB option remaining)
HL RP - Jeremy Jeffress (5.104 years, Arb 3 or $3.175MM club option)
HL RP - Josh Hader (1.115 years, 2 MiLB options remaining)

RP - Matt Albers (11.141 years, $2.5MM)
RP - Dan Jennings (5.171, Arb 3, ~$1.6MM)
RP - Xavier Cedeno (5.005, Arb 3, ~1.5MM)
RP - Jacob Barnes (2.098, 1 MiLB option remaining)
RP - Brent Suter (1.161, 2 MiLB options remaining)
RP - Brandon Woodruff (0.161, 1 MiLB option remaining)
RP - Corbin Burnes (0.086, 3 MiLB options remaining)
RP - Adrian Houser (0.031, may earn a 4th MiLB option due to Tommy John surgery)
RP - Freddy Peralta (0.090, 2 MiLB options remaining)
RP - Aaron Wilkerson (0.026, 2 MiLB options remaining)
RP - Taylor Williams (1.026, 1 MiLB option remaining)

Minor League Depth
RP - Marcos Diplan (0.000, 2 MiLB options remaining)

Stats and Summary

Total Players: 36 
16 Position Players (3 catchers)
20 Pitchers (4 LHPs, 16 RHPs)

Guaranteed Payroll with 2019 Contracts: $60.75MM (7/25 spots)
Guaranteed Payroll including Arbitration Salaries: $104.425MM (22/25 spots)

That is...a lot of money already. And with 15 guys going in arbitration, somewhat minimal free agency, and a few long term contracts getting more expensive, how the Brewers manage short term and long term costs is going to be important.

Minor League Free Agency and Rule 5 Draft Eligibility

This was going to be a central component to this offseason post, but then we got good and dealt damn near everybody that I was worried about with our 40-man roster crunch. I posted this last December:

On 12/17/2017 at 2:39 AM, ramssuperbowl99 said:

We're looking at needing to add Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, Luis Ortiz, Cody Ponce, Troy Stokes, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeios, Jordan Yamomoto, Josh Pennington, Jon Perrin, Quintin Torres-Costa, Bubba Derby, Trey Supak, and Devin Williams, who was eligible this year but had TJS and is more likely to be picked once healthy. I probably missed a few guys since there are so many who are eligible.

The Brewers traded the bolded as well as a ton of other guys who would have been involved in this crunch (like the Brett Phillips types). Josh Pennington retired. Jake Gatewood got hurt and now likely won't be picked. This has mostly been addressed between the trades and players not developing.

To add to those guys, we've got Nate Orf, Phil Bickford, Nate Kirby, and Joantgel Segovia who are also Rule 5 eligible. To add to that list, we've got Jett Bandy, Christian Bethancourt, Michael Brady, Nick Franklin, Jake Hager, Nick Ramirez, and Tyrone Taylor who are eligible for minor league free agency.

To make a long potential story short, I keep Quintin Torres-Costa, Bubba Derby, Trey Supak, and Troy Stokes. I don't think many of the other guys would be serious contenders to get picked. Most of them have been passed over on 40 man rosters already, and I'd rather spend the extra $10-20k over the year to keep a guy like Hager around then throw him a 40-man roster spot.

 

Okay the Actual Offseason

All things considered, Milwaukee doesn't really have that many questions in terms of roster spots right now. Stearns could go dumpster diving, let the pitching depth sort itself out, promote the kids, and basically be done. Or he could throw his chips into the middle and aim to be among the best teams in baseball next year. It's all about how much depth they think they have, and how much they're willing to prioritize the next 1-2 years versus the next 5-6. 

But really, there's somewhat limited flexibility in terms of what you would think the Brewers can do. Assuming Ryan Braun will exercise his no-trade clause, the outfield and at least 2 spots in the infield are set. Barring a massive impact move to bring in a top tier SS, 2B, or C, those spots aren't likely changing a whole lot either. It seems like the Brewers generally like what they have, or in the case of 2B, like who they will have. There's a solid enough bench here too with Santana finding his stride as a pinch hitter, but it's not like he restored his value all the way back up to where he's a trade candidate.

The Payroll Situation

If there is any bad news from the roster wrap up, it's that we're effectively running the highest payroll in franchise history the day after the World Series is over. To be fair, that's not really bad news... we're good and virtually the whole team is back. But if you looked at 2018's payroll and said that the goal needs to be to push our chips in, well, financially we don't have as many chips that aren't already spoken for left as you might like. And really, our costs aren't going down any time soon. That $100MM we are locked into is nearly all in at least value-neutral players, with Braun the lone exception, so it's not like we can wait bad contracts like a large market team and have $50MM in payroll space fall into our laps. If this season goes as you would imagine, Orlando Arcia, Jacob Barnes, and Jesus Aguilar are eligible for arbitration next year, while Knebel and Shaw are going to be getting $10M/year salaries sooner rather than later. We get some salary relief in the form of free agency for Thames (2020, net $5MM), Chacin (2020, net $6MM), and a club option on Chase Anderson (net $5.5MM versus 2019 salary), but that gets eaten up by the young guys we've added who deserve to get paid.

In any of these kids of discussions, you need to have an estimate as to what the upper ceiling payroll is. A playoff run generally adds anywhere from ~$10-$75MM in revenues, spread out over the competitive life of the team, depending on how far you make it. I think you can safely place the Brewers towards the lower end of that range today, though winning the World Series could change that. There's also been a new TV deal that went into effect since the last time we maxed our payroll out, which should add about $20M/year in revenue. Between that and natural baseball inflation, I think a realistic maximum here would be around $130MM.

So we're at $104MM with most of the roster filled out already. Let's say $115MM to cover major league minimums, bullpen shuffling throughout the year, and leaving us with another $5M already earmarked for trade deadline acquisitions. So we've got $15MM in room, and that's before any extensions.

I think this is where we need to look at Thames' future on the roster and Chase Anderson's spot in the rotation. Neither is a player I'd be especially inclined to give away. Anderson was a stud last season and is on a very team-friendly contract. Thames is an above average major league hitter who melted down and couldn't adjust to part time duty. He might change that with an offseason, but the Brewers don't really have the luxury they did in prior years of being able to take risks on bounceback guys who need time to audition. Selling low may just be a reality.

We Simultaneously Have too Many and too Few SPs

The following Brewers starters have posted a season of at least 2.5 WAR: Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, and Junior Guerra. We have a top 50 prospect in Corbin Burnes, a top 100 prospect in Brandon Woodruff, and a top 100 prospects in Freddy Peralta who are all MLB ready. That's 8 guys, before Stearns goes dumpster diving, who are some degree of interesting and at least nominally capable of putting up a good season.

Further, we have one of the lowest starting pitcher workloads. We finished 19th in baseball in IP by starters this year. The difference between the Brewers in 19th and the 18th place Yankees was 14 innings, which is the same as the difference between the Brewers and the 26th place Twins. No matter which way you slice it, we've got all the SP we "need". But that doesn't mean we have the caliber of starting pitching we need, and I think that's why half of the Brewer mock offseasons will involve sending 2 guys on this list plus more prospects to the Mets for Jacob deGrom. 

For this offseason, I won't make that deal. It's tempting, especially because we will be favored for the Wild Card game, not the division next year. But at least to start I think it's worth establishing the baseline of where we might be.

Tyler Saladino Should be Offered Arbitration to Smooth the Promotions of Hiura and Dubon

That's a hot take title, but if you looked at the Brewers roster and payroll crunch and have thought, "why are you offering arbitration to Perez, Schoop, and Saladino dummy", this is why. Barring a huge acquisition, the future of the Brewers at 2B is Hiura and the future plan A utility guy is Dubon. There's service time considerations here too, but Dubon will want to show he's back from a torn ACL that likely prevented his call up last season, and Hiura will want to rake in AAA, then show his arm can handle 2B every day (or close to it).

I think we'll go with 13 batters, 12 pitchers at the start of the year given the amount of MLB level SP we have that can go extended innings when needed. We've also got a ton of guys with options, and I fully expect us to bullpen shuttle this year again.

So let's say Thames is traded before the season, with a cheap pinch hitter (or hell, just Broxton) included on the roster.. Let's also say Saladino makes it as the 25th man (since we have so many MLB level SP or extended relief, we go with 12 arms). 

When Dubon is ready, which shouldn't be long, Saladino is optioned. Dubon fits that same role on the team perfectly, and having Saladino as an arbitration guy optioned down all year is perfect because if there are any injury issues in the middle infield, we can call up a perfectly decent defensive replacement that Counsell trusts to have decent ABs, even if he isn't a great hitter.

Eventually, Hiura is brought up in place of the Thames spot. He plays the bulk of the time at 2B, and the infield is set up with a ton of flexibility:

1B - Aguilar gets all LHP, most RHP. Shaw available for defensive replacement, off days, and some RHP.
2B - Hiura gets all RHP. Schoop available for LHP. Dubon (and Perez) defensive replacements.
SS - Mainly Arcia playing. Dubon available as a rotational guy. Perez maybe against LHP with fly ball Brewers pitchers?
3B - Shaw available against RHP. Schoop available for LHP. Perez defensive replacement.

With Perez able to cover the OF, we should be able to get away with only carrying 4 OFs. Or, down the line, if he's not playing the IF, he could get moved if Corey Ray gets promoted.

That type of versatility is what the Brewers love. It's at least 3 deep at every position but 1B. We have 4 righties and 2 lefties, so the balance isn't perfect, but it's close. 2 of the guys could also play CF.

 

Actual Moves

The Brewers Trade Eric Thames to [Insert Rebuilding Club Here] for Salary Relief

Like I said above, you don't want to give Thames away, but the reality is that we need to squeeze every dime out of this roster that we can. Thames at $6M for a pinch hitter is a nice trade for a team who wants to put butts in seats during a rebuild, potentially get a guy to flip at the deadline, and not pay much to do it. With tons of middle infield reinforcements coming, we have enough depth where Travis Shaw should absorb the backup 1B role easily, and the $6M/year savings will get used.

The Brewers Trade Chase Anderson to the Yankees for Sonny Gray

This move is being speculated by, well, everyone. And Brian Cashman has all but confirmed he's getting traded:

It just makes a ton of sense for the Brewers for a few reasons.

First, Derek Johnson was Gray's pitching coach at Vanderbilt, so there is comfort there.

Second, the Brewers wouldn't need him to be an ace and could focus on getting him through 2 times in the order. Historically, that's where Gray has struggled, but has generally been a guy who teams have been comfortable with the 3rd time through the order. If he adopts a "1 time through, then the kitchen sink" mentality, that may be a big help.

Third, and this is the big one, the Yankees as an organization teach their guys to throw fewer fastballs. Gray's fastball usage has plummeted as a Yankee even though his velocity has stayed the same. He needs to get back to throwing his 4-seamer up in the zone, and there aren't many teams that are preaching that as well as the Brewers are right now. 

This is a reclamation project with upside that feels, well, maybe not risk free, but a simple adjustment away from working.

Anderson is the major piece of this trade (and I would expect the Yankees to go on and flip him to a rebuilding team anyway). He just gets left out in the cold, but will have a chance to bounce back in a more pitcher friendly environment where he can try to start preventing some HRs. There might need to be minor prospects going either way to balance this out, so feel free to add or subtract 40 FV type guys to even out the value.

The Brewers Sign Yusei Kikuchi from Saitama Seibu Lions

Kikuchi is widely expected to be posted this year, and is probably the most under the radar big name of free agency. There's uncertainty here for  reasons - obviously he's moving from Japan, but also because there has been shoulder stiffness and a down year on stuff, but the upside is real and the Brewers know about it:

The comparison people are going to throw out there is Patrick Corbin, which is pretty decent as far as comps go. They are both left handed starters with plus stuff that rely heavily on a FB/SL combination, and both are young free agents (Kikuchi will be 28 next year) who a team might mentally slot into the number 2 place in a rotation. The track record on Kikuchi's results is also pretty strong, as a quick check on his career stats shows.

When he's on, it's 92-96 mph from the left side with deception, and he can touch 98. The slider is comfortably plus. He flashes a get me over curveball and a changeup, but really they are change of pace pitches to surprise a hitter who might be locked in.

So why him? Well because the bigger market teams are likely going to go after the more sure-thing in Corbin, and we can help cover Kikuchi's weaknesses. Being able to have him go 5 IP every 5 days should let his stuff tick up versus some of the stupid overuse that Japanese pitchers have to deal with, and his lack of a 3rd pitch becomes much less of a problem if we adopt the notion that he just needs to give us 2 quality times through the order.

I think he'll be available for a total compensation package including the posting fee of around 5/$75M, so let's use that as a ballpark. That'd be about $55MM to the player, and $20MM to the team.

Final Roster

Position Players:
C - Manny Pina (3.046 years, Arb 1, ~$1.8MM)
C - Erik Kratz (4.156 years, Super 2 Arb 3, ~$1.7MM)
1B - Jesus Aguilar (2.082 years)
2B - Jonathan Schoop (5.027 years, Arb 3, ~$10.1MM)
2B - Hernan Perez (4.079, Arb 2, ~$2.7MM)
SS - Orlando Arcia (2.047 years, 1 MiLB option remaining)
SS -Tyler Saladino (3.053 years, Arb 1, ~$1.0MM)
3B - Travis Shaw (3.088 years, Arb 1, ~$5.1MM)
LF - Ryan Braun (11.129 years, $18MM, with $3MM deferred)
CF - Lorenzo Cain (7.074 years, $15MM, with $1MM deferred)
RF - Christian Yelich (5.069 years, $9.75MM)
RF - Domingo Santana (3.024 years, Arb 1, ~$2.0MM)

Starting Pitchers:
SP - Jimmy Nelson (4.104 years, Arb 2, ~$3.7MM)
SP - Yusei Kikuchi (0.000 years, ~$11MM)
SP - Jhoulys Chacin (8.054 years, $6MM)
SP - Sonny Gray (5.061 years, Arb 3, ~$9.1MM
SP - Corbin Burnes (0.086, 3 MiLB options remaining)
LRP - Zach Davies (3.020 years, Arb 1, ~$2.4MM)

Relief Pitchers:
HL RP - Corey Knebel (3.151 years, Arb 1, ~$4.9MM, 1 MiLB option remaining)
HL RP - Jeremy Jeffress (5.104 years, Arb 3 or $3.175MM club option)
HL RP - Josh Hader (1.115 years, 2 MiLB options remaining)
HL RP - Freddy Peralta (0.090, 2 MiLB options remaining)
RP - Brandon Woodruff (0.161, 1 MiLB option remaining)
RP - Dan Jennings (5.171, Arb 3, ~$1.6MM)/Xavier Cedeno (5.005, Arb 3, ~1.5MM)

Bullpen Shuttle
RP - Junior Guerra (2.155 years, 1 MiLB option remaining)
RP - Jacob Barnes (2.098, 1 MiLB option remaining)
RP - Adrian Houser (0.031, may earn a 4th MiLB option due to Tommy John surgery)
RP - Taylor Williams (1.026, 1 MiLB option remaining)

Stats and Summary

Guaranteed Payroll : ~$125MM

I don't think there are many surprises on the position player side. Saladino would be almost immediately optioned, with playing time re-distributed once Dubon and/or Hiura are ready.

You could argue both Gray and Kikuchi are overkill, but why not? There's a good deal of uncertainty in that rotation, but the healthy scenario for those guys is potentially amazing. Burnes makes the rotation over Davies just because he's the top prospect and I don't think moving to the bullpen really improved his stuff all that much compared to the starting repertoire. I think you could argue that Zach Davies would be in somewhat serious danger of not making this roster. The stuff just isn't good enough, and really he was kept more for the value. Guerra had a nice September in the bullpen, and might be a cleaner transition to a long relief role.

Overall, the quality of innings should go up dramatically, and by targeting guys who don't need to pitch a huge quantity of innings (Jimmy Nelson aside), we can go after some players at a relative discount, then cover that up with our bullpen. Which is amazing. 

Peralta is the most natural fit for a bullpen spot. He's just so weird that limiting looks against him and letting him stay more in the 92-95 mph range (which is really more like 95-98 mph with his extension) is just unfair. I think he's a great candidate for the "Hader" role, 30-35 pitches, all out, then at least one day off. Having 2 guys to split those spots means we should be able to actually distribute that workload sustainably. Woodruff would move into a more traditional role, one of Jennings/Cedeno stays on to get lefties out, and the last spot is the bullpen shuttle with at least 3 solid candidates to make sure if we need to cover 2 innings or we go to extras, we're okay.

Pretty good "baseline" for a team to be honest.

Edited by ramssuperbowl99
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9 minutes ago, Herbie_Hancock said:

Should be 3 0, not 2 1, which is what makes this extremely frustrating 

Eh enjoy it. The Brewers have looked like the better team in all three games so far. You just hope you get that 3rd win out of the way without having to use Hader. 

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27 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Eh enjoy it. The Brewers have looked like the better team in all three games so far. You just hope you get that 3rd win out of the way without having to use Hader. 

Assuming the plan is something like:
Gonzalez for 2, so he's PH for when he bats
Woodruff for 3, just conceding that he gets an AB
Burnes for 2
Knebel for 1
Jeffress for 1

With Hader earmarked for Game 5.

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2 minutes ago, PaulWall_23 said:

Buckle up if this is part of the plan! At what point do we try and transition the back end back to Knebel? 

Hopefully that good end to the inning may jump start him a bit but I would trust Knebel at this point above Jeffress unless there is a fairly large lead. 

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