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The Milwaukee Brewers Thread - CY Burnes, 2021 NL Central Champs

ramssuperbowl99

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PaulWall_23

PaulWall_23

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It really came down to Game 2 and 4. Those were the 50/50 games and needed to win one of them. Awesome ride, bats got quiet for too long at certain points in the series. It happened during the season as well, better team probably won. I hate them however and won't watch a pitch of the world series. Go Bucks. 

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N4L

N4L

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On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 10:27 AM, PaulWall_23 said:

It really came down to Game 2 and 4. Those were the 50/50 games and needed to win one of them. Awesome ride, bats got quiet for too long at certain points in the series. It happened during the season as well, better team probably won. I hate them however and won't watch a pitch of the world series. Go Bucks. 

No one hates them more than SF giants fans... come watch them blow it again 

One of my good friends is an absolute nut about the giants, and he was rooting for them to make it to game 7 of the WS because he knew they would lose... I told him to be careful what he wished for, but that was exactly what happened.

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ramssuperbowl99

ramssuperbowl99

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16 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

 

Cue up the John Lackey gifs gents.

It sounds like the Reds made a massive offer and he gave Stearns a chance to match it, but they couldn't. I'll be interested to hear what the numbers are, because when you stack up the money we've spent on crappy pitching versus what you'd expect a pitching coach to make...well it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Or they have a replacement lined up internally.

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ramssuperbowl99

ramssuperbowl99

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On 11/3/2018 at 6:05 PM, Pugger said:

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-hire-andy-haines-as-hitting-coach/c-300199086

I like this hire. Analytically driven guy who has valued patience. I think this is the type of hire that could get the most out of a guy like Aguilar, who needs to walk more.

 

Also, MLBTR released their FA predictions.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

These predictions are mostly wrong on teams, but are reasonably interesting in terms of the dollar figures. Here are a few noteworthy ones:

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12.  Yusei Kikuchi – Padres.  Six years, $42MM.  Kikuchi, a 27-year-old lefty starter, has pitched for Japan’s Seibu Lions for the past eight years.   The Lions will reportedly honor Kikuchi’s request to be posted this winter, thus freeing him to negotiate with any MLB team.  He battled shoulder issues this year and has only once exceeded this season’s innings total of 163 2/3.  Kikuchi profiles as a mid-rotation arm in MLB.  He’ll be the first player subject to the new NPB-MLB posting agreement, which should  serve to lower fees for MLB teams by tying the player’s release fee to the size of his contract.  For example, a $42MM contract would result in a release fee of $7.975MM, placing the total commitment in this scenario around $50MM.  Kikuchi will draw interest from contenders and rebuilding clubs alike.

I put Kikuchi at 5 years/$50M for the player, and miscalculated the total value to about $75MM. If you told me 5/$60MM total, I'd be all over it. If you told me 6/$50MM total, I'd be personally flying out to Japan to finalize the deal. I think this is an underbid by MLBTR, but if they are closer than I was, this is a steal.

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13.  Josh Donaldson – Cardinals.  One year, $20MM.  Donaldson, 33 in December, presents a potential impact bat on a short-term deal.  He’s a late blooming third baseman who became a star for the A’s in 2013 and won the AL MVP award in 2015 after a trade to the Blue Jays.  He missed significant time due to a calf injury in 2017, but went nuts with 22 home runs over the final two months that year.  Donaldson hit the DL this year in April with right shoulder inflammation and then went on the shelf again in late May for his calf.  That involved a 60-day DL stint, with Donaldson being traded to the Indians before he was activated.  Donaldson did make a brief but promising return to action late in 2018 and could land a multi-year deal on the strength of his offensive ability. That said, he’s arguably better served to take a one-year pact and re-establish his health; we’re guessing the famously competitive Donaldson will bet on himself. The Cardinals, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Braves, and White Sox could be options.

Do we decide to trade Schoop for mostly salary relief, then sign Donaldson to play 3B and move Shaw to 2B? Shaw wasn't unplayably bad at 2B, and the next change here is only $10MM increase on Schoop's money, and Donaldson is a better bet to give you a draft pick at the end of the year anyway. But the real win here is that Donaldson is still a monster when healthy. 

If this really is just a 1 year commitment, man that's tempting. A very much not-healthy Donaldson put up 6.4 WAR between 2017-2018 with 165 games played. We have the team depth to get away with resting him enough to keep him healthy, and he's a legitimate 150 wRC+ hitter when he's available. 

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15.  Wilson Ramos – Astros.  Three years, $36MM.  With just a week left in a breakout 2016 contract season, Ramos tore his right ACL — the same one he’d torn four years prior.  Dreams of a monster four or five-year deal evaporated, and Ramos took a two-year, $12.5MM guarantee with the Rays.  He rounded back into form this year, catching nearly 800 innings for the Rays and Phillies and leading all backstops with a 131 wRC+.  The 31-year-old seems primed for a solid three-year deal, perhaps with a team that can give his knees a break with some time at designated hitter.  The Astros, Red Sox, Athletics, Angels, Rockies, or Dodgers could work, as could a return to D.C.

Too rich for me, but that's the cost of a catcher upgrade.

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32.  Brian Dozier – Nationals.  One year, $10MM.  Looking at second basemen from 2014-17, only Jose Altuve was more valuable than Dozier.  He compiled nearly 19 WAR for the Twins, smacking 127 home runs in that span.  A solid four-year deal seemed possible for Dozier at one point, but his bat just died this year outside of July and August.  The Twins shipped him to the Dodgers in the middle of that decent run.  Now, the 31-year-old may be best-served looking for a one-year deal and prioritizing playing time as a way to rebuild value.

33. DJ LeMahieu – Tigers.  Two years, $18MM.  LeMahieu earned the Rockies’ starting second base job in May 2013, keeping the gig by virtue of strong defense despite providing little value at the plate.  LeMahieu bumped up his offensive production starting in 2015, peaking with a batting title in ’16.  Since then, he’s managed a 90 wRC+, which will likely remain his level for the next few years.  The 30-year-old isn’t an exciting option at second base, but he should provide a steady two wins above replacement.  LeMahieu has a chance at a three-year deal. If the Rockies let him go the Nationals, Tigers, and Twins could be options.

All of the non-Schoop 2B.

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34.  Joakim Soria – Mets.  Two years, $18MM.  Soria, 34, continues to find success with his combination of a high strikeout and low walk rate.  He was able to avoid the long ball despite a precipitous drop in ground-ball rate this season, which he split between the White Sox and Brewers.  With a fastball under 93 miles per hour, Soria isn’t a flashy choice, but he still provides plenty of value.

35.  Mike Moustakas – Royals.  Two years, $16MM.  After hitting a Royals-record 38 home runs in 2017, Moustakas’ free agency went terribly awry.  Despite a qualifying offer, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract.  Instead, the third baseman wound up back with the Royals on a one-year, $6.5MM deal.  Sam Mellinger, talking to two league sources, said Moustakas turned down approximately $45MM over three years from the Angels.  Agent Scott Boras told Mellinger, “There was never a multi-year contract offer made to Mike Moustakas by the Angels or any other major-league team.”  Who you believe will color a prediction on what Moose can do this winter, after a slightly worse season but with no qualifying offer.  A multi-year contract is a possibility here, but it seems clear today’s GMs don’t value Moustakas’ high-power, low-OBP profile as a premium skill set.

Both of these seem fairly reasonable. At $8MM/year, Moustakas would be an option, but if we're going to move Shaw to 2B, I'd prefer Donaldson all things considered.

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41.  Brad Brach – Brewers.  Two years, $12MM.  Brach, 33 in April, had success out of the Orioles’ bullpen with a 2.74 ERA and 9.5 K/9 from 2014-17.  He even earned an All-Star nod in 2016.  After a rough 39 innings to begin his 2018 campaign, Brach was traded to Atlanta.  The top line result — a 1.52 ERA — was strong, but Brach’s peripheral stats didn’t support it.  He remains a useful righty arm, but his stock took a hit in 2018.

42.  Wade Miley – Brewers.  Two years, $12MM.  Miley, 32 in November, had a decent run for the Diamondbacks and Red Sox from 2012-15.  His ERA jumped to 5.48 from 2016-17 for the Mariners and Orioles, which is why he settled for a minor league deal with the Brewers in February.  He sprained his groin in the spring but made his way to the big league club in May.  In his second start for the Brewers, Miley strained his oblique, knocking him out for over a month.  Once he returned on July 12th, Miley posted a 2.66 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, and 53.3% ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings across 14 starts.  Miley had a .274 batting average on balls in play and a 5.7% home run per fly-ball rate during that time, neither of which seems sustainable.  It was a useful run for the Brewers, but it’s not clear Miley is a different pitcher than he was before 2018.

48.  Kurt Suzuki – Brewers.  Two years, $8MM.  Suzuki, 35, has been in a job share with Tyler Flowers on the Braves the last two years.  Among catchers with at least 650 plate appearances during that time, Suzuki’s 116 wRC+ is second only to Buster Posey and J.T. Realmuto.  Of course, those catchers played much more than Suzuki did.  Defensively, Suzuki is a below-average pitch framer and has struggled even more to stop the running game.  He’s a bat-first option at catcher — one who can play as many as 100 games if necessary.

I'd pass on Suzuki and Bach at those prices, but Miley for 2 years/$12M isn't the worst thing imaginable. But considering they are predicting an AAV that's only $4M less than Kikuchi's including the posting fee, I don't know why that'd make a ton of sense.

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