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The Milwaukee Brewers Thread - CY Burnes, 2021 NL Central Champs


ramssuperbowl99

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Think it's time for Keston to go to Biloxi.

Ray, Hiura, Gatewood, Erceg, Stokes, Grisham, that offense would have a lot of high picked guys.

And to Biloxi he goes. After a relatively slow start, finishes up in Carolina hitting .316 with a .901 OPS.

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Draft time

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-0/

Quote

21. Milwaukee Brewers – Trevor Larnach, RF, Oregon State

The Brewers are historically one of the most value-oriented, demographically open-minded clubs in the draft and, in this scenario, Larnach has slipped too far. The Brew Crew are also on Adams, Casas, and Scott.

Here are their scouting reports:

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Trevor Larnach (#12 prospect, 50 FV, Med Risk, 109 on Top 100)

TLDR

Larnach is a physical beast with massive exit velos/raw power and surprising contact skills but limited defensive value.

Full Report

Larnach hits low-lying lasers, with several balls off the bat in excess of 115mph during Oregon State's opening weekend in Arizona. If sneaky plus-plus raw power exists, Larnach has it, as he generates it without taking max-effort hacks. There are teams that don't like Larnach in this range because they think he's a bad defender and/or they are concerned about his 20% strikeout rate, But Larnach's career 15% walk rate should help satiate the stat-driven people in draft rooms and his power numbers could take a jump if pro instruction coaxes more lift out of his swing. He checks every box for the risk-averse, analytics-driven clubs, which means he has a lot of potential homes in the 10-20 range.

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Jordyn Adams (#17 prospect, 45 FV, High Risk)

TLDR

Adams is one of the top wide receivers in the country and was a unrefined, middle tier prep prospect until he had a breakout tournament performance in late March. His elite toolset reminds some of Byron Buxton or Royce Lewis, but the track record is very short.

Full Report

Adams was not talked about as a top-3 round prospect in this class before late-March's NHSI tournament in his home town of Cary. Adams wasn't even one of the top dozen prospects at the event when it started, but looked like a sure first day pick by the end of the event. He offers top of the scale athleticism, which you'd expect from one of the top dozen wide receiver prospects in the country. He has 80 speed, a loose swing, plus bat control, projectable raw power and athletic actions. Adams wasn't a top tier baseball prospect entering the spring in part because of limited reps, since he was seen as likely to go to North Carolina to play football, where his father is the defensive line coach. He's now in line for a multi-million dollar bonus offer and is expected to sign. We think he goes in the 10-17 range.

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Connor Scott (#23 prospect, 45 FV, High Risk)

TLDR

Scott looks similar to former prep teammate and Astros prospect Kyle Tucker, but is a 70 runner that's also a top 5 round pitcher. He's had a number of minor injuries this spring so scouts don't have the long track record they'd like, but the upside is among the best in the class.

Full Report

Scott was a big name as a freshman at Plant High School as he was the spitting image of teammate and eventual #5 overall pick Kyle Tucker, with a lanky frame and loose, gloveless, lefty swing. Scott is a superior athlete to Tucker, as Scott has been into the mid-90's on the mound with three average or better pitches and 70 speed that profiles in center field. Scott doesn't appear to like pitching so scouts haven't seen him throw much, but he's easily a top-5 round prospect on the hill. While he's played in some high-profile prep games around Tampa (mostly for scouts who are based in the area), Scott only went to a few national events this summer.

This, combined with a number of minor spring injuries (hamstring and concussion the most notable) have made Scott hard for decision makers to see, and thus slid him down around the 20's rather than around 10, where his tools belong alongside Kelenic and Gorman at the top of the class. Some scouts that got positive preseason looks predicted Scott would be this year's Austin Beck and shoot into the top 10 picks, but that likely won't happen. It's unclear if this uneven track record is predictive of Scott not hitting his upside, but some teams are treating it that way and we also simply didn't get enough looks to pound the table in the top half of the first round.

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Triston Casas (#33 prospect, 45 FV, Med Risk)

TLDR

Massive power, track record of hitting but so patient and pitched around he's been hard to scout this year.

Full Report

Casas has a long track record of production at showcases and with multiple Team USA clubs, but has been hard to scout this spring as he's a patient, famous hitter that's been pitched around. In the past, this has happened to hitters like Jason Heyward and Braxton Davidson. Casas was a 2019 prospect that reclassified to the 2018 class where he's now of roughly of average age for the class. He's appealed mostly to more analytical teams due to his track record of hitting and the big exit velos he posts, due to his power and fly ball-oriented swing. Casas' cut is designed to tap into his top-of-the-scale raw power and he often does, when he swings.

He plays third base now and has a 55 arm that gets into the low 90's on the mound, but he's limited athletically and laterally, fitting at first base only long-term. Some clubs see Casas' mature approach and see a 6 hit, 6 or 7 power future monster that is the rare high school first baseman worth a first round pick while others see a fringy hitter that sells out for power and beats up on non pro-level pitching. There's enough interest that Casas could go as high as 13 and likely finds a spot in the top 30-35 picks.

I'd love any of the 1st 3 guys and would be okay with Casas too. Connor Scott would probably be at the top of my "reasonably available" board. There is no reason he should be available at the back of the 1st round.

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16 hours ago, bkobow05 said:

Here's an interesting question...

What would you guys be comfortable giving up to rent Manny Machado?

I still don't think I'm renting anyone yet that requires significant return. Only player I'm giving up top guys for is Archer because he'd be here for awhile.

This was supposed to be the "last" year we were out of contention when you looked at the rebuild when Stearns first got here. Everyone circled 2019 as the year we started making a run at it. Well we made a pretty damn good run in 2017 and are on pace to do it again. We're way ahead of schedule but I don't let that make us get ahead of ourselves. I'm not giving up Keston or Burnes unless that guy is here for 2-3 more years IMO. Our farm system looks very bleh without those 2.

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6 hours ago, bkobow05 said:

What can you tell us about Joe Gray and Micah Bello @ramssuperbowl99?

Ha I fell asleep right after the Gray pick.

I like this draft. Seems like a mix of upside with 2 guys who fell late in the process but have big tools, and 2 guys who have relatively high floors for HS players. We definitely needed to revitalize the lower part of the farm system, and don't need a whole lot of guys who are near MLB ready at all, so just taking some young guys to get the next wave of players fits our timeline too.

Gray reminds me of Monte Harrison. More baseball reps and the same swing and miss, but the prototypical RF dude.

Ballo...not sure if I have a comp or anything but the guy hits.

This really helps our depth in the lower minors. Between this draft, last year's international FA class, and this upcoming international FA class, we've got a really good group of 16-19 year old position players again.

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2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Looks like a pretty boring day for us today. Suppose that's the downside of being a good team, draft isn't much fun.

Aaron Ashby is really interesting. Full season strikeout rate of more than 1 Josh Hader (where 1 Josh Hader = 18.0 K/9). Late season velocity spike. Plus curveball. Delivery is called funky by scouts but I think it's just that the ball comes out a little later than you'd expect.

I'm intrigued. 

 

Edited by ramssuperbowl99
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