First Down Passing To RBs Key To 2019 Offensive Success

[soulman]

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be

By JJ Stankevitz July 18, 2019 1:04 PM

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/david-montgomery-tarik-cohen-mike-davis-jordan-howard-chicago-bears-running-backs-pass-catching-receiving-what-to-watch-for-training-camp-bourbonnais

 


How much better Mitch Trubisky will be is the defining question for the 2019 Bears. But we won’t begin to know the answer to that question until September — it’s not something that’ll be easily discernible during training camp practices in Bourbonnais or a handful of snaps in preseason games. Those can sometimes produce false positives and false negatives.

The Bears believe in Trubiskiy, of course, and you’ll likely hear Matt Nagy and players laud their quarterback’s growth over the coming weeks. But belief is one thing; tangible production is another. And we won’t truly get to see that growth until the night of Sept. 5 at Soldier Field. 

But there are a few things to look for in Bourbonnais that could clue us in that a big-time leap is coming for No. 10. We’ll begin this mini-series leading up to the start of training camp next week with this: Better success from running backs catching passes on first down. 

It’s a narrowly specific angle, but one that carries plenty of weight. Consider this excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview:

“First down has long been perceived as a running down. In 2017, the league-wide average run-pass split on first down was 47-53. It was 50-50 last season, but that was still well below the 59-41 league-wide split on all downs. Yet passing to running backs on first down is significantly more effective.

“In 2018, there were 6,248 running back rushing attempts on first down. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry, minus-0.01 Expected Points Added per attempt, and a positive play rate of 41.3%. When teams threw to running backs on first down, they averaged 6.02 yards per target, 7.8 yards per receptions. 0.08 EPA per attempt — slightly more efficient than the average of all passes regardless of down at 0.05 EPA — and a positive play rate of 52.3%.”

The larger point here (especially if your eyes glazed over some of those numbers — which, we promise, make sense) is this: Scheming more throws to running backs on first down is an area in which almost every team in the NFL can improve. It's worth noting the Kansas City Chiefs' most effective play on first-and-long in 2018, per Sharp, was a pass to Kareem Hunt. 

And the good news is the Bears re-worked their running back room in a way that could optimize their success throwing the ball to David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on first down. 

The 2018 Bears simply didn’t have the personnel to do that regularly or successfully.

Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). 

Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. 

And for the crowd who still believes Nagy wasn’t willing to establish the run: The combined rushing attempts on first-and-10 of Howard, Cohen, Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell totaled 182; the combined pass attempts by Trubisky and Chase Daniel in that down-and-distance was 176, per Pro Football Reference’s play index. 

The Bears, in 2018, averaged 5.5 yards per play on first-and-10, tied for 24th in the NFL. Yet only three teams — the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts — averaged fewer yards-to-go on third down than the Bears’ mark of 6.9. That’s a sign of Nagy’s playcalling prowess and the talent on this offense, and it’s not a stretch to argue an improvement of first-and-10 success will have a significant impact on the overall success of the Bears’ offense. 

So back to the initial point about passes to running backs in these situations: The Bears believe both Montgomery and Davis have some untapped potential as pass-catching running backs. Montgomery caught 71 passes in college at Iowa State, while Davis was targeted the most by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018 on first down (17 of 42 targets). Cohen, of course, is already an accomplished pass-catcher. 

The “Run DMC” backfield needs to have more success carrying the ball on first-and-10 than last year’s group did, of course. But if you’re in Bourbonnais or watching a preseason game, keep an eye out for how effective the Bears are at passing to their running backs — especially if those passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage (another inefficiency noted by Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview). 

If you start seeing Montgomery making defenders miss after catching a pass, or Davis looking fluid with the ball in his hands, or Cohen breaking off some explosive gains — those will be significant reasons to believe in Trubisky and the Bears' offense in 2019. 

[dll2000]

Quote

 

Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). 

Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. 

 

This was the problem Nagy faced in a nutshell.  On first down Howard wasn't a threat out of backfield and running the diminutive Cohen in that situation wasn't ideal.  So for defense it was first key Howard run, if Cohen key pass.

The back ups sucked. 

I still would have played Cohen more.  

[dll2000]

So when Howard is in Lbs are more aggressive in filling and when Cohen is in they can wait and make sure they can surround on run and cover on pass.  

But now what if Cohen is in game and Patterson is in game?  That changes things as they are both a threat to run or catch.  Cohen is no longer only run threat.  If you dont go nickel Bears should be able to pass with a mismatch of LB on Cohen or Patterson.  If you go nickel Bears should be able to run with either Cohen or Patterson and have an advantage. 

[soulman]

What sticks out like a sore thumb to me is we gained only 3.7 ypc on 1st down/ten behind Jordan vs a league average of 4.7 ypc.

I was not aware we'd done that poorly and clearly blocking was not the only issue.

Nagy's inability to feel comfortable throwing to Howard in 1st/ten resulted in more longer yardage calls on 2nd and 3rd down.

That should change dramatically this year and for once is nice to see how well Pace and Nagy are responding to the tweaks that need to be made in order to make this a top ten offense to match a top ten defense.

[Sugashane]

The biggest key to me is that Tru connects on more of his deep passes. If they can keep safeties honest they don't fill as hard, which opens up the short game more. Tru already showed great accuracy and decision making on throws under 10 yards. Now you are adding a weapon out of the backfield and the short game becomes a bigger threat. 

 

Plus we had a lot of times where safeties were coming downhill hard vs the run game, almost disregarding the deep ball. If Tru can hit those long passes more often the running lanes should open up more. Rather than make one guy miss and have a safety right in your face  (Like last year) they can have 3-5 yards of space. Doesn't sound like much but that is a hell of a difference for first downs through the game and lets the HB make a read and cut or turn on the jets. 

 

The Bears HB position is absolutely improved, but Tru is the key cog. He will set the ceiling and the floor. I'm pretty comfortable with that actually.