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I bet GB to win the SB, Here's why (Defensive version)


Rainmaker90

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Let me preface a few things. I am a Packer fan that leans towards to the optimistic side. I also do not view the Packers as a favorite in the NFC, they're not. The NFC is going to be a absolute bloodbath with every game mattering and a few good teams being left out of the play-offs. I do however feel there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about our chances both offensively and defensively. Given the odds I got, 15-1, I feel like it's a very strong bet. It's my second favorite next to Philly at also 15-1. So I'm going to make a few posts on why I feel we could make it to the SB . And I will start with the defense. 

 

1. Mike Pettine and Mike Smith- It's the second year under Mike Pettine and last year I truly believe he over-preformed in his first year. He had a lack of talent, dealt with a plethora of significance of injuries, had very few turnovers, had a lack of depth, and had a offense that did not do him many favors. In spite of that, he put together a very respectable season. This year is quite different. A significant amount of talent has been added, the depth has improved everywhere (except ILB) , and hopefully the injuries and turnover numbers go back to average. Pettine has a tremendous resume and knows how to run a defense, I believe he has the pieces to do so now. Last year he got next to nothing out of our EDGE rushers, even Fackrell's season wasn't as good as his numbers suggest, enter in another great coach Mike Smith who pro-bowl players like Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston rave about. With the talent he has now, if our EDGE rushers are a plus unit, the whole defense is going to be much better, because they were so bad last year.

 

2. The Free Agents- It was a weird FA season for GB. They were very aggressive and acquired three starters on the defense. Adrian Amos, Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith. Three players in their mid 20s with a history of success and might not have played their best ball yet. If we get what these guys produced last year, it's a significant improvement already. If these guys improve upon their play it's an astronomical improvement. I'm not even saying these guys are elite at their position. I'm saying they are very good players and who we had out there last year were very bad. I think all of these players have a very high floor and a pretty good ceiling as well which is a very stark difference from the players we had last year.

 

3. Addition by subtraction- We had a lot of black-holes on defense last years. Guys who were just terrible football players, playing important positions, getting a ton of snaps. At safety alone we had three very bad players, HHCD, Kentrell Brice and Jermaine Whitehead. A lot of Bears fans think we Packer fans are dogging HHCD because he's not a Packer anymore,  well why don't we look at the actions of Washington who traded a 4th rounder ( which isn't worthless) for a half season work, and didn't even want him back. In fact, no team gave him a multi year deal because he's not any good. He's a below average tackler, who takes terrible angles and  can only create a turnover if the ball is thrown right at him. He's living off his 1st round pick status, and even that is running out. Idt anyone would view Brice or Whitehead as plus players as well. Brice was a constant disappointment, playing slow, being in the wrong position, making bonehead penalties and Whitehead did nothing of value as well. That's a entire position full of terrible players. Tramon played admirably but still below-average at the position. That group thankfully has been overhauled and cannot be any worse. Adrian Amos has been one of the most consistent players in the league. If this group is considered average, it is a significant improvement. Another atrocious group were the EDGE rushers. Nick Perry and Clay Matthew had little production. And when I say little, their pressure rate was terrible and they finished with a whopping 5 sacks between the two despite playing a significant amount of snaps. As I said before, Fackrell's pressure rate wasn't that great either. If The Smith's can play league average ball, and basically do what they have done in their careers thus far, it again is a significant improvement that will be noticeable.

4. The rookies. I'm not saying these guys are going to be all-pros in year one, but I expect both Gary and Savage to make this defense better in year one. Gary is going to be the  3rd, 4th rusher. He's going to be fresh, and the attention is not going to be focused on him, he's going to make some plays probably late in games too where the line is worn down, and Gary is relatively fresh. He has a long way to go to be a complete pass rusher, but there is a lot of things going for him next year. The snaps he takes this year will be productive, and I'll venture to say be better than any of our EDGE rushers last year. As I already said, the safety position was atrociously bad. It's not going to take much to improve upon their play. Savage has the speed, attitude, ball skills, and apparently brain to be a significant player in year one. Davante and Tramon has already praised the guy, two players whose opinion carries significant weight. He's going to have Adrian Amos to cover for the rookie mistakes, a good pass rush and a good CB group. I think he's in a good position to be impactful early. At the very least, he'll be better than the dumpster fire we had there last year.

 

5. The young players stepping up- Every team has young guys they are relying on to improve, but I think we have a couple guys on the verge of stardom. 

Kenny Clark- Already is one of the top DTs, at only 23, Clark could be a dominant player at a very important position. We have lacked a blue chip player on defense for years; Kenny Clark is a blue chip player. I hope they extend him ASAP because he's going to cost a boatload.

Jaiere Alexander- This guy has the making of star for a long time. He had one heck of a year, not just for a rookie but for a corner.  I can't say enough about his game. He's everything you want in a CB, fast, quick, instinctual, tough, great cover skills.  If we see a improvement in year two, which is a likely bet, we have a shutdown corner on our hands.

Kenny King- Another guy who when on the field is a very good player. Before everyone says how injury prone is, let's consider the fact the we knew he had shoulder issues in Washington. Shoulder injuries do not go away quick. They linger for quite some time, and it wasn't shocking that it bothered him his rookie year. Last year he had groin and hamstring problems, that's just bad luck. It's nothing that will affect him this year. His injury risk isn't much different than other CBs. But since he hasn't proven yet, it seems like it is. If he stays healthy, with Jaire, we could have one hell of a CB duo,

Blake Martinez- I'm a fan of Martinez. I think he's a solid player and would be happy with his play like he did last year. This off-season he's said to have gained 7 pounds and lost 3.5% body fat, and that's extremely significant. He should be faster, quicker, and he will shed blocks better. He's going to be a better player because of the shape he's in. With the defensive-line, and the EDGE guys this year, to go along with Blake's physical transformation, he's going to be in for a better year and could be one of the better ILBs.

 

That's not counting on guys like Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, Tony Brown, Dean Lowry who I wouldn't be shocked if any of them turn out to be plus players this year. And if one or two of them are will be icing on the cake.

 

Summing it all up: Defensively, I think this is going to be the best unit we have since 2010. We have the coaching, the talent, depth, blue chip players and other guys trending up. We have replaced terrible players with guys who will almost assuredly be better than the guys of past. And we should have a offense that will be more helpful. I'm not going to say it's going to be top 5 or top 10 or anything, but I'm going to say I think this unit will be a SB level defense, and could be a unit that could carry the team there. Very high ceiling with a  high floor.

 

Hope you all enjoyed. Please let me know what you agree or disagree with. 

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20 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Let me preface a few things. I am a Packer fan that leans towards to the optimistic side. I also do not view the Packers as a favorite in the NFC, they're not. The NFC is going to be a absolute bloodbath with every game mattering and a few good teams being left out of the play-offs. I do however feel there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about our chances both offensively and defensively. Given the odds I got, 15-1, I feel like it's a very strong bet. It's my second favorite next to Philly at also 15-1. So I'm going to make a few posts on why I feel we could make it to the SB . And I will start with the defense. 

 

1. Mike Pettine and Mike Smith- It's the second year under Mike Pettine and last year I truly believe he over-preformed in his first year. He had a lack of talent, dealt with a plethora of significance of injuries, had very few turnovers, had a lack of depth, and had a offense that did not do him many favors. In spite of that, he put together a very respectable season. This year is quite different. A significant amount of talent has been added, the depth has improved everywhere (except ILB) , and hopefully the injuries and turnover numbers go back to average. Pettine has a tremendous resume and knows how to run a defense, I believe he has the pieces to do so now. Last year he got next to nothing out of our EDGE rushers, even Fackrell's season wasn't as good as his numbers suggest, enter in another great coach Mike Smith who pro-bowl players like Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston rave about. With the talent he has now, if our EDGE rushers are a plus unit, the whole defense is going to be much better, because they were so bad last year.

 

This is the PackIRs.  Normal is TJ Lang playing Dline and Letroy Guion playing Oline.

Edited by Arthur Penske
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I bet more for fun than to win large sums. I bet £20 this year that GB wins the SB, at odds of 16/1 (meaning if I win I get £20x16 = £320). I thought that those were good odds for GB who, because of the last two years, are longer odds this year (otherwise I'd have expected them to be between 8 and 12 to 1). Obviously you are hoping a lot of things go right, but there is a new vibe, an infusion of talent, and maybe just a bit of G&G goggles.

Edited by OneTwoSixFive
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If LAF is able to get this offense back to it's dominate self I don't mind the bet.  I thought about sending some $ with a buddy to Vegas to put down a homer bet for me on the Packers.

I'm not a sure fire believer in this defense yet but it's certainly should be better than last year's defense.  We need the potluck of middling pass rushers to develop into a dominate pass rush.  I also think we need Kevin King to stay healthy and develop into that stud we drafted him to be.  

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18 minutes ago, SSG said:

If LAF is able to get this offense back to it's dominate self I don't mind the bet.  I thought about sending some $ with a buddy to Vegas to put down a homer bet for me on the Packers.

My dad bets on both the Packers and Mizzou every year.  If that Mizzou ever hits... $$$$$$$$$$$$!

 

I still think that 2020 is when the Packers are going to be dangerous.  

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7 hours ago, Golfman said:

How much did you bet? In order to get to the Super Bowl, we'll almost have to be a top 10 defense, maybe top 5. 

It's a pretty sizeable one. I really think this is a safe bet to be a plus group. It should be our best defense since 2010 in all honesty. Like I said before, if we limit the major injuries I do believe this group can lead us to the SB if needed. They have everything what you're looking for. Coaching, top tier talent, depth. 

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Packers aren't winning the Super Bowl after two years without playoff experience and in a head coach's first year. 

LaFleur - 0 playoff experience.

Hell, I just looked. 

Rodgers, Adams, Allison, Davis, Graham, Lewis, Bulaga, Linsley, Taylor, Spriggs are the only offensive players with any playoff experience. 

Tramon, Kyler, Blake, Za'Darius, Adrian, Kenny and Mike are t he only defensive players on our roster with any playoff experience. 

There are three things that matter when it comes to winning the Super Bowl: 

1. Experience.
2. Experience.
3. Defense. 
 

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1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

Packers aren't winning the Super Bowl after two years without playoff experience and in a head coach's first year. 

LaFleur - 0 playoff experience.

Hell, I just looked. 

Rodgers, Adams, Allison, Davis, Graham, Lewis, Bulaga, Linsley, Taylor, Spriggs are the only offensive players with any playoff experience. 

Tramon, Kyler, Blake, Za'Darius, Adrian, Kenny and Mike are t he only defensive players on our roster with any playoff experience. 

There are three things that matter when it comes to winning the Super Bowl: 

1. Experience.
2. Experience.
3. Defense. 

 

In 1999, sure. I just don't think it's imperative to have elite defenses anymore in the playoffs. That hasn't been the case the past few years at least. 

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Just now, BlondeonBlonde said:

In 1999, sure. I just don't think it's imperative to have elite defenses anymore in the playoffs. That hasn't been the case the past few years at least. 

Lol, yes it has. 

Below are the defensive points per game allowed by all 52 Super Bowl winners in their post seasons. 

The average defensive points allowed over 52 years of Super Bowl history is 13.3 points per playoff game. 

Only 4 quarterbacks (Montana, Warner, Brees, Roethlisberger) have won a Super Bowl when their team has allowed over 19 points per playoff game. 

The highest average defensive points allowed to win a Super Bowl was Joe Montana at 24 points per game.  In his other two Super Bowl games, he only needed to score an average of 8 points and 7 points in order to win. 

The 85 Bears had the best average.  They allowed a whopping 3.3 points per game in their three playoff games. 

I was going to factor in defensive points scored by Super Bowl winning teams, and I might do that at some point, but I think what I've got is enough to prove my point. 

This entire QB thing has got to go.  You need a good QB to win a Super Bowl.  As this list proves, you don't need a great one.  Most of the years the greatest ones won, the QB didn't even have all that great a postseason.  Peyton won one while throwing 2 total touchdowns and an interception (including 0 Super Bowl touchdowns) throughout the postseason.  He won his other one while throwing 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in the postseason.  Aaron Rodgers had his worst game in the NFC Championship game.  Tom Brady was carried to his first Super Bowl win that kicked off a dynasty and helped make Brady who he is. 

Keep in mind the Patriots held the Chargers to 7 points in the first half and gave up a TD in garbage time up 41-22 against the Chargers.

They also held the Chiefs to 0 points for the entire first half. 

If you think the Patriots beat the Chiefs in Kansas City without shutting down the Chiefs offense for an entire half you're out of your mind. 

Patriots - 20.6
Eagles - 16.6
Patriots - 18.0
Broncos - 14.6
Patriots - 18.3
Seahawks - 13.3
Ravens - 18.0
Giants - 14.0
Packers - 19.0
Saints - 19.6
Steelers - 19.6
Giants - 16.3
Colts - 12.8 (You think any QB is winning a Super Bowl throwing 3 TD/7INT in 4 games without that defense?)
Steelers - 15.5
Patriots - 17.0
Patriots - 19.0
Buccaneers - 12.3
Patriots - 15.6
Ravens - 5.7
Rams - 19.6
Broncos - 10.6
Broncos 16.3
Packers - 16.0
Cowboys - 18.3
Niners - 18.3
Cowboys - 17.0
Cowboys - 15.7
Redskins - 13.7
Giants - 11.7
Niners - 15
Niners - 7 (Joe Montana was so fantastic only having to score an average of 8 points)
Redskins - 12.3
Giants - 7.7
Bears - 3.3
Niners - 6.3 (Montana was so fantastic only having to score an average of a touchdown)
Raiders - 11.0
Redskins - 10.3
Niners - 24 (This one was the most impressive Super Bowl win from a QB from a points against perspective, but Montana threw 6 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in 3 games).  
Raiders - 12.5
Steelers - 13.0
Steelers - 12.3
Cowboys - 7.7
Raiders - 14.0
Steelers - 12.3
Steelers - 9.0
Dolphins - 8.7
Dolphins - 10.3
Cowboys - 5.3
Colts - 10.0
Chiefs - 4.3
Jets - 12.3
Packers - 10.3
Packers - 18.5 (two games)

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And the great Tom Brady threw 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the entire postseason this past year.  They don't even get out of the divisional round without an elite postseason defense. 

The highest points per game in Super Bowl history was this past year at 20.6 points per game allowed.  If you watched the Patriots first half performances against the Chiefs and Chargers and you honestly believe that an elite defense isn't tantamount to Super Bowl success, you have been fooled by an NFL that is trying desperately to make quarterbacks more important than defense and has been failing every single year. 

Defense was, is and always will be the most important factor to winning Super Bowls.  Why? 

Because every rule break the offense gets bridges the gap between what it takes to be a great QB and have success in the post season. 

And that's good news for us because Gute clearly sees that defense, not offense, is key to winning Super Bowls.  It's why we invested everything into fixing our defense since he took over. 

Now maybe our defense makes that leap this year.  It won't matter because, as the Bears proved, it takes experience in the playoffs regardless of how good your defense is. 

We don't have it, and Rodgers isn't good enough in the playoffs to overcome it. 

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1 minute ago, Outpost31 said:

Lol, yes it has. 

Below are the defensive points per game allowed by all 52 Super Bowl winners in their post seasons. 

The average defensive points allowed over 52 years of Super Bowl history is 13.3 points per playoff game. 

Only 4 quarterbacks (Montana, Warner, Brees, Roethlisberger) have won a Super Bowl when their team has allowed over 19 points per playoff game. 

The highest average defensive points allowed to win a Super Bowl was Joe Montana at 24 points per game.  In his other two Super Bowl games, he only needed to score an average of 8 points and 7 points in order to win. 

The 85 Bears had the best average.  They allowed a whopping 3.3 points per game in their three playoff games. 

I was going to factor in defensive points scored by Super Bowl winning teams, and I might do that at some point, but I think what I've got is enough to prove my point. 

This entire QB thing has got to go.  You need a good QB to win a Super Bowl.  As this list proves, you don't need a great one.  Most of the years the greatest ones won, the QB didn't even have all that great a postseason.  Peyton won one while throwing 2 total touchdowns and an interception (including 0 Super Bowl touchdowns) throughout the postseason.  He won his other one while throwing 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in the postseason.  Aaron Rodgers had his worst game in the NFC Championship game.  Tom Brady was carried to his first Super Bowl win that kicked off a dynasty and helped make Brady who he is. 

Keep in mind the Patriots held the Chargers to 7 points in the first half and gave up a TD in garbage time up 41-22 against the Chargers.

They also held the Chiefs to 0 points for the entire first half. 

If you think the Patriots beat the Chiefs in Kansas City without shutting down the Chiefs offense for an entire half you're out of your mind. 

Patriots - 20.6
Eagles - 16.6
Patriots - 18.0
Broncos - 14.6
Patriots - 18.3
Seahawks - 13.3
Ravens - 18.0
Giants - 14.0
Packers - 19.0
Saints - 19.6
Steelers - 19.6
Giants - 16.3
Colts - 12.8 (You think any QB is winning a Super Bowl throwing 3 TD/7INT in 4 games without that defense?)
Steelers - 15.5
Patriots - 17.0
Patriots - 19.0
Buccaneers - 12.3
Patriots - 15.6
Ravens - 5.7
Rams - 19.6
Broncos - 10.6
Broncos 16.3
Packers - 16.0
Cowboys - 18.3
Niners - 18.3
Cowboys - 17.0
Cowboys - 15.7
Redskins - 13.7
Giants - 11.7
Niners - 15
Niners - 7 (Joe Montana was so fantastic only having to score an average of 8 points)
Redskins - 12.3
Giants - 7.7
Bears - 3.3
Niners - 6.3 (Montana was so fantastic only having to score an average of a touchdown)
Raiders - 11.0
Redskins - 10.3
Niners - 24 (This one was the most impressive Super Bowl win from a QB from a points against perspective, but Montana threw 6 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in 3 games).  
Raiders - 12.5
Steelers - 13.0
Steelers - 12.3
Cowboys - 7.7
Raiders - 14.0
Steelers - 12.3
Steelers - 9.0
Dolphins - 8.7
Dolphins - 10.3
Cowboys - 5.3
Colts - 10.0
Chiefs - 4.3
Jets - 12.3
Packers - 10.3
Packers - 18.5 (two games)

I'm not even going to read the rest of your post when you start it off like this. Why are you unable to engage in civil discourse? I lurk often and I notice this is a reoccurring issue with you. Even if you have a better understanding of the game than others, why must you be so arrogant? It's obnoxious. I bet you're super fun at parties. 

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