CW21's 2020 NFL Draft Thread (RB Watch List - Page 2)

[Daniel]

11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

My early QB thoughts, and watch list.  Any guys I'm missing?

Jarrett Guarantano.  No eye popping numbers last season, but he was behind the worst offensive line in the SEC, but still was the second highest rated QB in the SEC per PFF's metrics (85.9 to Fromm's 84.7 and Tua's 90.8).  Running threat, made great strides as a QB from 2017 to 2018, and took a ton of hits.  He also had the highest completion rate among SEC QBs when throwing under pressure.

He's unlikely to come out this year, but with Jim Chaney running the offense, and the offensive line being way better, he's certainly about to have a career year.  Not likely to be in the first round discussion if he did come out this year, but he was the number 1 dual threat QB in his class.  He's worth paying attention to this season.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Jarrett Guarantano.  No eye popping numbers last season, but he was behind the worst offensive line in the SEC, but still was the second highest rated QB in the SEC per PFF's metrics (85.9 to Fromm's 84.7 and Tua's 90.8).  Running threat, made great strides as a QB from 2017 to 2018, and took a ton of hits.  He also had the highest completion rate among SEC QBs when throwing under pressure.

He's unlikely to come out this year, but with Jim Chaney running the offense, and the offensive line being way better, he's certainly about to have a career year.  Not likely to be in the first round discussion if he did come out this year, but he was the number 1 dual threat QB in his class.  He's worth paying attention to this season.

I saw him listed somewhere and I took a brief look at him.  Doesn't seem to be much of a chance he declares unless he blows up this year, which is possible.  A few things I noticed with him.  First, his eyes tend to lock onto his target very early.  That's going to be an issue in the NFL, and that's probably the biggest room for improvement you want to see out of him.  He's listed at 6'4", 209 but he barely looks like he's over 200.  There needs to be more weight put on that frame, even if it comes at the sacrifice of some of his elusiveness.  Not sure how PFF comes up with their metric of Guarantano outproducing Fromm.  Fromm has him beat on just about every statistic other than INT%, which isn't surprising.

[Daniel]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I saw him listed somewhere and I took a brief look at him.  Doesn't seem to be much of a chance he declares unless he blows up this year, which is possible.  A few things I noticed with him.  First, his eyes tend to lock onto his target very early.  That's going to be an issue in the NFL, and that's probably the biggest room for improvement you want to see out of him.  He's listed at 6'4", 209 but he barely looks like he's over 200.  There needs to be more weight put on that frame, even if it comes at the sacrifice of some of his elusiveness.  Not sure how PFF comes up with their metric of Guarantano outproducing Fromm.  Fromm has him beat on just about every statistic other than INT%, which isn't surprising.

Probably the amount of time Guarantano spent under pressure is my assumption.  Fromm had a lot more talent around him and a stellar offensive coordinator.  Guarantano didn't.

For the record, I'm a believer in Fromm, and he's definitely a way better pro prospect than Guarantano by a large margin.  Like you said, he's still got a long way to go, but if you watch him in 2017, the strides he made were significant.  I thought he was about to be replaced by Keller Chryst going into 2018 because he really didn't look good, but he made big strides in 2018.  I expect he'll make more this year and be a prospect to watch for 2021, but he will be eligible in 2020, and sometimes players come out earlier than they should.  Also, he claims that he put on about 20 lbs this offseason too, so his frame should be more filled out.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Probably the amount of time Guarantano spent under pressure is my assumption.  Fromm had a lot more talent around him and a stellar offensive coordinator.  Guarantano didn't.

For the record, I'm a believer in Fromm, and he's definitely a way better pro prospect than Guarantano by a large margin.  Like you said, he's still got a long way to go, but if you watch him in 2017, the strides he made were significant.  I thought he was about to be replaced by Keller Chryst going into 2018 because he really didn't look good, but he made big strides in 2018.  I expect he'll make more this year and be a prospect to watch for 2021, but he will be eligible in 2020, and sometimes players come out earlier than they should.  Also, he claims that he put on about 20 lbs this offseason too, so his frame should be more filled out.

I'm not even sure it's that.  That's something that young QBs have a tendency to do, especially when they're coming from high school where pure arm talent would overcome 99% of the defenses they'd face.  In college, the speed goes up and you can't telegraph those passes like you could in high school.  In high school, you could tell a defender that the ball is coming their direction, and they'd probably be nowhere near able to make a play on the ball.  The looking off defenders isn't something that's really going to be affected by OL play.  That's something they generally develop with time.  Hopefully we see that change this year.  But he's probably a guy you're stashing as a '21 QB potentially as a mid-round pick.

[Daniel]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not even sure it's that.  That's something that young QBs have a tendency to do, especially when they're coming from high school where pure arm talent would overcome 99% of the defenses they'd face.  In college, the speed goes up and you can't telegraph those passes like you could in high school.  In high school, you could tell a defender that the ball is coming their direction, and they'd probably be nowhere near able to make a play on the ball.  The looking off defenders isn't something that's really going to be affected by OL play.  That's something they generally develop with time.  Hopefully we see that change this year.  But he's probably a guy you're stashing as a '21 QB potentially as a mid-round pick.

I was referring to PFF's rating, not him staring down receivers.

[Ozzy]

On 7/22/2019 at 9:24 PM, CWood21 said:

My early QB thoughts, and watch list.  Any guys I'm missing?

I don't think Mond comes out but he did make a heck of an improvement from his FR to SOPH year, will see if that keeps up.
 

I do feel you missed some guys on the list

 

 

Khalil Tate Arizona - Is well worth paying attention to, is a big time athlete who can really run and has a very strong arm I feel.  Can just flick it and the ball zips off his hand, needs some more work for sure and is a project but could easily have a fine season this year and be drafted no question about it.

 

Deondre Francois FAU RS - Kid still has potential, was amazing early in his career at FSU.  Obviously had some off the field issues but could have a big year with the lower competition level FAU plays.  Last chance to show what he can do but the kid has talent clearly and could easily be worth a late round pick after a good season this year.

 

Elijah Sindelar Purdue RS - Not a huge fan of his but kid has a big arm and will be interesting how he does.  Big body for sure, will see if he learned and improved last year while mostly sitting behind Blough.

 

Ryan Willis Virginia Tech RS - Long shot but had some flashes last year I thought, good competitive kid and decent athlete and mobility in the pocket, see if he can improve.

 

Tommy Stevens Miss State RS - Long shot for sure again, see if he wins some time but always thought he had a lot of upside at Penn State. Good athlete and knows this system of course, could do ok and worst case is a position change to TE potentially.

 

Brandon Wimbush UCF - Did show flashes at Notre Dame and might be the man this year with two QBs injured on UCF.  Can run around and do some things, see if he can progress this year.

 

Nick Tiano Chattanooga - Saw him a few years back but the kid is huge 6-5 240, need to watch him more but has some tools and is worth a look as a small school guy no doubt.  Will see how he plays this year.

 

 

 

 

 

[ClutchDJ]

I cannot wait to laugh at the team that drafts Jake Fromm in the 1st round.

[Awsi Dooger]

6 hours ago, ClutchDJ said:

I cannot wait to laugh at the team that drafts Jake Fromm in the 1st round.

Same. But I have to believe sanity will prevail and he'll drop out of the first round. 

Fromm has 8.75 hands, at least as measured at the Army All Star game three years ago.  That is considered a disqualifying number. I've been surprised the subjective listings have ignored it and kept him so high for so long.

Jordan Love has considerably more upside than Jake Fromm. But Utah State has huge amount of personnel and coaching staff turnover on offense, kind of like Josh Allen faced during his senior year at Wyoming. It will be interesting to see how Love deals with it, and how scouts deal with it, compared to what they saw of Love with an excellent (for that level) supporting cast in 2018.

[Tetsujin]

2 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said:

Jordan Love has considerably more upside than Jake Fromm. But Utah State has huge amount of personnel and coaching staff turnover on offense, kind of like Josh Allen faced during his senior year at Wyoming. It will be interesting to see how Love deals with it, and how scouts deal with it, compared to what they saw of Love with an excellent (for that level) supporting cast in 2018.

The post season activities will be muy importante for this guy regardless, I feel. 

[CWood21]

On 7/25/2019 at 4:01 AM, Awsi Dooger said:

Same. But I have to believe sanity will prevail and he'll drop out of the first round. 

Fromm has 8.75 hands, at least as measured at the Army All Star game three years ago.  That is considered a disqualifying number. I've been surprised the subjective listings have ignored it and kept him so high for so long.

Jordan Love has considerably more upside than Jake Fromm. But Utah State has huge amount of personnel and coaching staff turnover on offense, kind of like Josh Allen faced during his senior year at Wyoming. It will be interesting to see how Love deals with it, and how scouts deal with it, compared to what they saw of Love with an excellent (for that level) supporting cast in 2018.

I can't speak for his hand size, but has Fromm ever had issues with fumbles?  Most of the time the hand size is an issue, it's because they have fumbling issues.  And most want a more updated number before we "disqualify" him.  He's been productive in arguably the toughest CFB league.  As long as he hits those minimum benchmarks, he'll go off the board in the first round.  He's probably behind Herbert and Tua, but there's little doubt he'll go in the first round.  We're in a QB-starved league.  Nobody is doubting that Love has more upside, but he's also got more risk.

[Daniel]

Put me down as a Fromm fan.  Especially since he's the likeliest replacement for Mariota if we go that route, based on the assumed order of QB prospects.

[CWood21]

On 7/22/2019 at 12:13 PM, CWood21 said:

RB Watchlist (in no particular order)

Travis Etienne [RB; Clemson]*
Jonathan Taylor [RB; Wisconsin]*
D'Andre Swift [RB; Georgia]*
Eno Benjamin [RB; Arizona State]*
Ke'Shawn Vaughn [RB; Vanderbilt]
Cam Akers [RB; Florida State]
A.J. Dillon [RB; Boston College]
J.K. Dobbins [RB; Ohio State]*
Trey Sermon [RB; Oklahoma]
Najee Harris [RB; Alabama]
Zack Moss [RB; Utah]
Kylin Hill [RB; Mississippi State]*
Chuba Hubbard [RB; Oklahoma State]
Joshua Kelley [RB; UCLA]
Anthony McFarland Jr. [RB; Maryland]
Salvon Ahmed [RB; Washington]
Stephen Carr [RB; Southern California]
Trey Ragas [RB; Louisiana-Lafayette]
Ty Chandler [RB; Tennessee]
Patrick Taylor [RB; Memphis]
Clyde Edwards-Helaire [RB; LSU]
Reggie Corbin [RB; Illinois]
Lamichal Perine [RB; Florida]
Larry Roundtree [RB; Missouri]
Scottie Phillips [RB; Ole Miss]
A.J. Dillon [RB; Boston College]

Early Thoughts: After last year's brutal RB class, this year's class might be a breath of fresh air for those who want to see the NFL revert back to a more balanced offense.  Right now, I've got DeAndre Swift and Travis Etienne vying for the top RB in this year's class and they both come with significantly less questions than my top ranked RB last year in Josh Jacobs.  After those two, you have a slew of RBs who are going to find themselves a long career in the NFL.  Jonathan Taylor has been incredibly productive at Wisconsin, but I'm not a a big believer that hat his success in college will carry over to the NFL.  J.K. Dobbins hasn't really taken like most thought he would be.  Guys like Trey Sermon should find themselves solid careers.  Overall, it's a much better class than a year ago, which I don't think is a high bar to clear.

RB watch list is up.  Anyone I should keep an eye on?

[badgers0821]

On 8/12/2019 at 8:52 PM, CWood21 said:

RB watch list is up.  Anyone I should keep an eye on?

What makes you think Taylor’s game/success won’t transfer to the NFL?

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, badgers0821 said:

What makes you think Taylor’s game/success won’t transfer to the NFL?

CWood21 can answer this I am sure but I will take a shot at it as well.

 

His ball skills are suspect at best, all the top backs in the NFL currently can catch the football out of the backfield and make plays that way.  He has a big time fumbling issue also and has been ran into the ground over the past three years potentially on Wisconsin unless they will cut his carries this year and I doubt that.  There will be not a lot of "tread" left on those tires when he gets to the NFL which could scare teams off.

He needs to improve his versatility out of the backfield and secure the football a lot better.  Awesome college back but that is nothing new, Wisconsin usually has super productive backs and outside of Melvin Gordon and James white to some degree, all of them have failed in the NFL.  

 

Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, John Clay, Anthony Davis, PJ Hill, Brian Calhoun, Michael Bennett, Corey Clement.  James White has been a success but that is because he has been a good 3rd down back and is a fine receiver that can make people miss in the open field.   Also helps playing in the best organization in the NFL with the best head coach and best QB ever.  Again Gordon also but clearly no one is jumping all over paying him big bucks but he is arguably the best back to come out of Wisconsin because of his speed and big play ability.  

It will be very interesting how Taylor does this year without those two super consistent and experienced guards much less Edwards and Dietzen as well.  Sure have the best center in the nation back which helps and some other promising tackles but not proven quite yet.  

 

He is a power back but when you can get a big time tough power back like Benny Snell who carried a program to new heights in the 4th round, yeah RB for some is not all that valuable.  The pros is about versatility with backs and all the top ones are weapons in the pass game and run game.  Now maybe he can improve that and improve his quickness in the open field but will see, he is not great at making people miss.  Leonard Fournette was great in college at times, at least Taylor does not get injured as much as Fournette.  But Fournette's lack of versatility arguably has hurt him a lot in the pros so far in his career compared to the likes of everyone else like Elliott, Barkley and Gurley.  Taylor might be the same way, and honestly in college as a prospect I would be a lot more afraid of tackling the likes of Elliott than Taylor in the open field, Taylor is powerful but does not break as many tackles as you think and again relies on that Wisconsin O-line to do a lot of the work for him.  

Will be curious if they have him on a pitch count like Penn State did with Barkley his last year.  But good for Taylor he has avoided any major injuries with getting so much of the work load.  Take Alexander Mattison from Boise State last year, great season and great tough physical runner.  But to think he would not have been even better on the Wisconsin team behind that O-Line, and not sure Taylor would be quite as good behind the Boise State O-line.  Will see if he is just another product of the system.    Still I have him as a 1st round pick and unless Harris has a great season on Bama probably the 1st RB taken, that is preseason though and things might change as well as overall team needs and who even wants a back in the 1st.  

 

 

[badgers0821]

1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

CWood21 can answer this I am sure but I will take a shot at it as well.

 

His ball skills are suspect at best, all the top backs in the NFL currently can catch the football out of the backfield and make plays that way.  He has a big time fumbling issue also and has been ran into the ground over the past three years potentially on Wisconsin unless they will cut his carries this year and I doubt that.  There will be not a lot of "tread" left on those tires when he gets to the NFL which could scare teams off.

He needs to improve his versatility out of the backfield and secure the football a lot better.  Awesome college back but that is nothing new, Wisconsin usually has super productive backs and outside of Melvin Gordon and James white to some degree, all of them have failed in the NFL.  

 

Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, John Clay, Anthony Davis, PJ Hill, Brian Calhoun, Michael Bennett, Corey Clement.  James White has been a success but that is because he has been a good 3rd down back and is a fine receiver that can make people miss in the open field.   Also helps playing in the best organization in the NFL with the best head coach and best QB ever.  Again Gordon also but clearly no one is jumping all over paying him big bucks but he is arguably the best back to come out of Wisconsin because of his speed and big play ability.  

It will be very interesting how Taylor does this year without those two super consistent and experienced guards much less Edwards and Dietzen as well.  Sure have the best center in the nation back which helps and some other promising tackles but not proven quite yet.  

 

He is a power back but when you can get a big time tough power back like Benny Snell who carried a program to new heights in the 4th round, yeah RB for some is not all that valuable.  The pros is about versatility with backs and all the top ones are weapons in the pass game and run game.  Now maybe he can improve that and improve his quickness in the open field but will see, he is not great at making people miss.  Leonard Fournette was great in college at times, at least Taylor does not get injured as much as Fournette.  But Fournette's lack of versatility arguably has hurt him a lot in the pros so far in his career compared to the likes of everyone else like Elliott, Barkley and Gurley.  Taylor might be the same way, and honestly in college as a prospect I would be a lot more afraid of tackling the likes of Elliott than Taylor in the open field, Taylor is powerful but does not break as many tackles as you think and again relies on that Wisconsin O-line to do a lot of the work for him.  

Will be curious if they have him on a pitch count like Penn State did with Barkley his last year.  But good for Taylor he has avoided any major injuries with getting so much of the work load.  Take Alexander Mattison from Boise State last year, great season and great tough physical runner.  But to think he would not have been even better on the Wisconsin team behind that O-Line, and not sure Taylor would be quite as good behind the Boise State O-line.  Will see if he is just another product of the system.    Still I have him as a 1st round pick and unless Harris has a great season on Bama probably the 1st RB taken, that is preseason though and things might change as well as overall team needs and who even wants a back in the 1st.  

 

 

Just a few heads up statements as you go through your analysis.

Wisconsin is not a team that utilizes their back in the pass game often. MGIII, James White or Corey Clement didn’t come out of school with that I their repertoire and it was a huge knock on Gordon but he and the other two have made that a strength.

The “Wisconsin backs fail in the NFL” is such a tired narrative that isn’t even relevant anymore. The last three that have come out have all done well and carved out a significant role with their teams.

“Sure have the best center in the nation back which helps and some other promising tackles but not proven quite yet.“ LT Cole Van Lanen is more than promising he is 100% proven, he was one of the highest rated tackles in college football last year. He didn’t start because they wanted to get Dietzen some reps but he played the majority of games.

“He is a power back but when you can get a big time tough power back like Benny Snell who carried a program to new heights in the 4th round”  You know Taylor is more of a speed back than a power back right? 

It also sounds like you said Elliot, Barkley, and Gurley did everything on their own and had terrible OL, do you actually believe that?

I definitely appreciate the effort but this was a pretty brutal read with a lot of inaccuracies and statements that really don’t hold any water if the review and analysis had been done, but again I appreciate the effort and thanks for taking the time to put in your two cents.