Evaluating and Projecting the 2019 Roster

[swede700]

3 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

I’m a little surprised by Taylor’s complete lack of showing during TC and preseason, given the reports of him during OTAs. 

Agreed.  He just flat out disappeared during TC after leading in the race for 3rd WR during OTAs.  Of course, that could have been just misplaced perception by the media and he actually was never leading the race as perceived by the coaching staff.  

Edited August 27, 2019 by swede700

[vikesfan89]

I know Zimmer likes using 4Cbs during the game but could they get by with all the reps going to Alexander Wayne's and Rhodes with a little bit of kearse until Hughes gets back? Obviously we'd be screwed if one of them got injured but it looks like we will be no matter what

[swede700]

1 minute ago, vikesfan89 said:

I know Zimmer likes using 4Cbs during the game but could they get by with all the reps going to Alexander Wayne's and Rhodes with a little bit of kearse until Hughes gets back? Obviously we'd be screwed if one of them got injured but it looks like we will be no matter what

He can probably get by with them, but if Hughes doesn't come back until Week 3, they're going to have to keep a 4th healthy CB until then...so whether it's Duke Thomas or Craig James really doesn't matter.  If Hughes can come back on Week 2, they'll only need to get through the Falcons game.  

[vikesfan89]

1 minute ago, swede700 said:

He can probably get by with them, but if Hughes doesn't come back until Week 3, they're going to have to keep a 4th healthy CB until then...so whether it's Duke Thomas or Craig James really doesn't matter.  If Hughes can come back on Week 2, they'll only need to get through the Falcons game.  

Right they need someone in the event of an injury but either way it seems to make sense to get Kearse on the field instead of a 4th CB if the other 3 are healthy

[swede700]

2 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

Right they need someone in the event of an injury but either way it seems to make sense to get Kearse on the field instead of a 4th CB if the other 3 are healthy

Agreed, I think that's probably what they'd do...run a lot of big nickel.  

[Krauser]

15 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

I know Zimmer likes using 4Cbs during the game but could they get by with all the reps going to Alexander Wayne's and Rhodes with a little bit of kearse until Hughes gets back? Obviously we'd be screwed if one of them got injured but it looks like we will be no matter what

The 4th corner rotates with the 2 outside starters. Alexander hasn’t been playing outside at all this preseason, and Kearse will also be slot/box only. 

I think they’ll keep Duke Thomas and use him in that role until Hughes is ready. 

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

Catch %?  PFF grade?  There is a reason why I divided the two lists, the upper half was the ones that have produced a lot or could easily make the roster they are on and there is a reason why I said give me Jakobi Meyers or Keelan Doss instead at the end since those two to me have been the most impressive, could throw Preston Williams into that as well.  The rest were guys I liked in college that though were possibly better than the two the Vikings picked late 1st round, they have not done as much preseason wise.

Jazz Ferguson has 6 catches and 78 yards and 1 TD in only two games in the preseason as well and has stood out in those games.  Could include him and he did not play their last game  and or produce and same with Stanley Morgan has 5 catches for 63 yards and did not play or produce their last preseason game.

Damion Willis who I never watched in college has 9 catches and 115 yards as a UDFA this preseason for the Bengals as well not included on the list and I am sure there are a few others that were UDFA WR who are played well.

Has Bisi looked good, yeah he has at times but so has a number of other guys not even drafted.  Take him all you want, cut Treadwell but all the problems of the 3rd WR position will not be solved just because of that.  PS I do not read PFF and honestly dislike it because some stats can be a little deceptive, I mean it is hard to drop the ball when you have only been targeted 6 times compared to many more for some of the other prospects.  But does allow ones name at the top of a list in terms of catch percentage apparently.  Still give me the ability and play of Jakobi Meyers and Keelan Doss over Bisi Johnson two players they could have selected.

Catch percentage isn't a hard concept, or some obscure stat I cherry picked to make Johnson look good. 

Johnson has 5 catches on 6 targets. Those 6 targets aren't much compared to the WRs you're comparing him to (Preston Williams has 13 targets, Doss 14, Meyers 26), but that's the most any WR has been targeted on the Vikings this preseason. The Vikings offense has been run heavy and a lot of targets are going to TEs and FBs (Irv Smith has 11, Blasingame and Conklin 6 each). So the high catch% is one way of showing that Johnson has made the most of his opportunities. 

PFF grades are a useful way of showing how well players performed aside from their stats (which reflect a number of factors out of their control, like the scheme and the quality of QB play or OL blocking or whatever). Bisi Johnson scoring high in PFF grades is a good sign. The only Vikings WR graded similarly this preseason is Thielen. The worst PFF graded WR on the Vikings is Beebe.

More than once since the draft, you've posted a long list of WRs who you wanted the Vikings to take instead of Mitchell and Johnson. The comparison is a little unfair, because you're listing 20-30 names and then picking the few who've looked the best in preseason, in hindsight. At the time, everyone would've been happy to take Emmanuel Hall, who went on IR without playing a snap in preseason. 

Now your comparisons are being made in terms of total catches and receiving yards. That's not the best way to compare a WR who's played over 150 snaps (Meyers) with one who's played 67 (Johnson).

Some of the guys you're talking up here haven't played that well: 

Jazz Ferguson had a good first game, but had a drop and a fumble in the Vikings game (as you might remember) and then didn't put up a catch in his 3rd game despite playing 41 snaps. Preston Williams had a big first game, but in 2 games since (playing 58 snaps) has 1 catch for 7 yards on 8 targets with 4 drops. Stanley Morgan has 2 drops on only 8 targets and missed preseason game 3 due to injury. 

Meyers and Doss have been good, but Johnson has been similarly effective in a smaller opportunity. And he's outplayed basically every other WR on your list, which was my original point. 

Obviously you weren't impressed by Johnson coming into the draft, but I think if you look at his actual performance in the preseason so far, there's a lot to like, and very little to regret in drafting him. 

[vikingsrule]

3 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

I know Zimmer likes using 4Cbs during the game but could they get by with all the reps going to Alexander Wayne's and Rhodes with a little bit of kearse until Hughes gets back? Obviously we'd be screwed if one of them got injured but it looks like we will be no matter what

Depends on Rhodes I'd think. If he keeps getting dinged up or struggles as he has this preseason, a rotation may not be a bad strategy.

[Ozzy]

On 8/27/2019 at 9:45 AM, Krauser said:

Catch percentage isn't a hard concept, or some obscure stat I cherry picked to make Johnson look good. 

Johnson has 5 catches on 6 targets. Those 6 targets aren't much compared to the WRs you're comparing him to (Preston Williams has 13 targets, Doss 14, Meyers 26), but that's the most any WR has been targeted on the Vikings this preseason. The Vikings offense has been run heavy and a lot of targets are going to TEs and FBs (Irv Smith has 11, Blasingame and Conklin 6 each). So the high catch% is one way of showing that Johnson has made the most of his opportunities. 

PFF grades are a useful way of showing how well players performed aside from their stats (which reflect a number of factors out of their control, like the scheme and the quality of QB play or OL blocking or whatever). Bisi Johnson scoring high in PFF grades is a good sign. The only Vikings WR graded similarly this preseason is Thielen. The worst PFF graded WR on the Vikings is Beebe.

More than once since the draft, you've posted a long list of WRs who you wanted the Vikings to take instead of Mitchell and Johnson. The comparison is a little unfair, because you're listing 20-30 names and then picking the few who've looked the best in preseason, in hindsight. At the time, everyone would've been happy to take Emmanuel Hall, who went on IR without playing a snap in preseason. 

Now your comparisons are being made in terms of total catches and receiving yards. That's not the best way to compare a WR who's played over 150 snaps (Meyers) with one who's played 67 (Johnson).

Some of the guys you're talking up here haven't played that well: 

Jazz Ferguson had a good first game, but had a drop and a fumble in the Vikings game (as you might remember) and then didn't put up a catch in his 3rd game despite playing 41 snaps. Preston Williams had a big first game, but in 2 games since (playing 58 snaps) has 1 catch for 7 yards on 8 targets with 4 drops. Stanley Morgan has 2 drops on only 8 targets and missed preseason game 3 due to injury. 

Meyers and Doss have been good, but Johnson has been similarly effective in a smaller opportunity. And he's outplayed basically every other WR on your list, which was my original point. 

Obviously you weren't impressed by Johnson coming into the draft, but I think if you look at his actual performance in the preseason so far, there's a lot to like, and very little to regret in drafting him. 

Sorry if I have my own opinion and do not base it off PFF opinions.  A lot of you gentlemen speak as if I am some idiot, but sorry I follow prospects a lot and have a 7 round mock ranking usually more than a year before it happens and edit that list as the college football season plays out.  You have a list for this up coming draft?  I do and it has been posted since February.   

I have watched Johnson this preseason and I like him more than I did at draft time, he has impressed no doubt.  But fact is have you watched these other receivers play in the preseason outside of Bisi Johnson?  I have got a chance to (free NFL Network) and they have looked just as good to me live game tape as Johnson as if not better many of the cases.

 

Chad Beebe had 9 catches for 95 yards in three preseason games last year and this year is basically doing little to nothing.  So the jump from being a backup playing against backups to being a starter playing against starters is a big deal.  Johnson has not been up against the starters at all times here, and some want him as your 3rd WR potentially starting if and when Thielen or Diggs get hurt?  

 

Will see what happens come cut time.  Even if they keep Bisi Johnson I would then cut Zylstra and keep Treadwell because he does have 3 years of NFL experience and I would not be completely comfortable with Johnson as the 3rd WR on the team.  Bisi is one thing to keep, Mitchell is another, so again he is not even a question on will he be cut or not, another spot they could have picked a potentially better WR but maybe I am wrong.

 

 

 

  

 

 

[Cearbhall]

22 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Even if they keep Bisi Johnson I would then cut Zylstra and keep Treadwell

That we are even discussing keeping Treadwell is a testament to how poorly the Vikings WR position has been stocked. That said, I do not disagree with you. It may be in the team's best interest to keep Treadwell given the current stable to WRs they have to pick from.

And that is just putrid.

[Ozzy]

1 minute ago, Cearbhall said:

That we are even discussing keeping Treadwell is a testament to how poorly the Vikings WR position has been stocked. That said, I do not disagree with you. It may be in the team's best interest to keep Treadwell given the current stable to WRs they have to pick from.

And that is just putrid.

I agree totally, and like others have said since they are going to run a two TE set the WR is less important which is great.  But you do need a 3rd at least because Diggs or Thielen will get injured this season, I would be shocked if they do not.  I did not think they should have picked a WR high in the draft but they could have got some for sure later.  Maybe Bisi is the guy but to me he seems very similar to WRs they already have on the roster.  

Come Friday will tell a lot about what they actually think of the WRs on the roster.  Not to mention the other WRs around the league who will be cut.  Jordan Taylor they cut, that was disappointing he did not play better in the preseason or really do anything like he showed at times on Denver.  Also Benwikere but that is not a surprise, so CB is another big problem for the team potentially with the guys they have out, but again it only matters unless they have an injury to Waynes, Rhodes and Alexander.

 

I got a lot of crap around here when I did not know Jalen Myrick was cut and thought he had some ability and could help in the return game.  Currently he is on the Atlanta Falcons and will see if he can make their roster, they picked him up August 17th I think, not sure if he will make it but had enough ability obviously for another look by a team in the NFL.

 

[Klomp]

One observation. In a study of formations run by the first team in the first two preseason games, one of the more interesting things was that when we ran a set with 2 RB, 1 WR, 2 TE (a run-heavy look), Treadwell was the WR who was in to run block. Didn't use that combo often, but thought it was at least worth bringing up.

I really think the "third WR" will depend on the type of play we're running. Beebe has been the main guy for the role, but I think we could see Johnson and maybe even Treadwell there at times. Also will see plenty of two-WR formations, opting instead for a second RB or TE.

[swede700]

In the end, you don't "showcase" Treadwell if you have any intention of keeping him.  

[Worm Guts]

3 minutes ago, swede700 said:

In the end, you don't "showcase" Treadwell if you have any intention of keeping him.  

 

The idea of showcasing doesn't make a lot of sense to me.   Bad players aren't going to look better by giving them more opportunities, they will just prove they are bad. If Treadwell can be showcased, then maybe we shouldn't trading him.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Worm Guts

[Kparty15]

6 hours ago, swede700 said:

In the end, you don't "showcase" Treadwell if you have any intention of keeping him.  

That doesn’t mean he is a camp cut though.  He could be on the roster until the trade deadline.