jebrick Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Switzer was money last year on 3rd downs. Rogers needs to show he has fully recovered from his injury. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, jebrick said: Switzer was money last year on 3rd downs. Rogers needs to show he has fully recovered from his injury. Switzer and Rogers had the same percentage of their receptions go for 1st downs last year - 41% Smaller sample size for Rogers, but for that let’s go back to his first year when he was healthy. It was 50%. Seems like that’s a fairly even battle, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 I just truly believe people are not remembering Switzer’s year correctly in 2018. Eight games with double digit catches, 3 of which never made it over 10 yards, another that went for less than 20. Only 1 game over 32 yards (the 32 yard game took 7 catches). Seven games averaging 5 yards or less yards per reception. His best production game was against the Broncos with 3 plays over 10 yards and 2 muffed punts. This all scream lock to anybody? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 3 hours ago, Dcash4 said: I just truly believe people are not remembering Switzer’s year correctly in 2018. Eight games with double digit catches, 3 of which never made it over 10 yards, another that went for less than 20. Only 1 game over 32 yards (the 32 yard game took 7 catches). Seven games averaging 5 yards or less yards per reception. His best production game was against the Broncos with 3 plays over 10 yards and 2 muffed punts. This all scream lock to anybody? Lock in general? No...but based on our current receiving corps, I think it's close to one. I personally just believe he will get a spot over Rogers....but the FO likes both of them, so who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 3 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said: but based on our current receiving corps, I think it's close to one. I personally just believe he will get a spot over Rogers But why? What Has Switzer done to be considered “close to a lock” and that makes you think gets gets the spot over Rogers? Hes a slot receiver on a team that’s full of them (and is by far the least productive outside of the rookie), a rookie was just drafted who was a talent returner, he hasn’t made any use of his PR abilities and his short area quickness in a game to date, and his game log reads like a guy who doesn’t last very long in the league. He’s short, white, and quick. Fun! He had 3 drops in 39 chances because he likes to arm catch things. He doesn’t create a ton of separation despite his “short area burst” which leads to his small averages because he isn’t getting away from anyone - before or after the catch. There is less than a yard difference between Switzer and Rogers career PR averages. I just don’t get it. Ive mentioned it before, but I really hope to see Switzer break a play or 2 this preseason, because it’s that ability that truly makes him different that Rogers. Trouble is, we seem to THINK he has that ability....but he has yet to show he can turn these 3 yard catches into 20+ yards yet. (Switzer had 1 catch over 20 yards last year, Eli had 11 in year 1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Some stats on this stuff. Now mind you that YAC and eYAC is dependent on route calling, pass location, and a few other things. Switzer: 5.8 average cushion, 3.5 average separation, 4.1 YAC, 5.3 eYAC, -1.2, 81.8% catch rate, 3.1 target air yards Rogers: 5.7 average cushion, 3 average separation, 4.5 YAC, 6.1 eYAC, -1.6, 72.7% catch rate, 9.7 target air yards So in talking about the 'big plays' Rogers has more because he was targeted much deeper than Switzer is, but has a 10 point lower catch rate, doesn't create as much post catch as is expected from him, doesn't get as much separation as Switzer. As for returns, that 1 yard per return is pretty big. And want to hear something crazy in the return department? Antonio Brown has the same fair catch rate as Switzer and has the same difference in yards per return as Switzer/Rogers. And Switzer did that with barely any chance to get in synch with the return team. (Both Brown and Switzer fair catch about 45% or PR's, Rogers did it on 65%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Does separation account for route as well? I honestly don’t know, so please enlighten me. Because if Switzer plays more at and behind the line, a CB giving 5 yards off the line at the snap and a catch at -1 yards is a 6 yard separation. By my knowledge it does not, it’s just where the defender is at the time of catch but I’m not sure how your site is defining it. 20 minutes ago, warfelg said: has a 10 point lower catch rate This is the least surprising thing here. If I play more downfield Your obviously going to have a lower catch rate. Switzer had a 93% catchable ball rate last year. That’s nuts, but also driven because of how simple the majority of his throws are. 22 minutes ago, warfelg said: doesn't create as much post catch as is expected from him Same goes for Switz...which when you don’t play downfield, is a striking issue. In terms of punt returns, nothing surprising there. Tomlin does not value the return game as anything more than transactional. Just get the ball back to the offense. That’s it. Ya red light/ green light. They did that will AB as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Dcash4 said: Does separation account for route as well? I honestly don’t know, so please enlighten me. Because if Switzer plays more at and behind the line, a CB giving 5 yards off the line at the snap and a catch at -1 yards is a 6 yard separation. By my knowledge it does not, it’s just where the defender is at the time of catch but I’m not sure how your site is defining it. 26 minutes ago, warfelg said: Cushion is the starting position of defender and separation accounts for the distance created while running the route. For example, DeSean Jackson who runs lots of 9 routes, starts with a 7.3 yard cushion and gets only 2.7 yards of separation. That means over the course of the average route, he makes up 11 yards on his defender. So Switzer makes up 9.4 yards on his defender and Rogers makes up 8.3 yards. Switzer DVOA and VOA -11.1% -14.5% Last time Rogers played DVOA and VOA -22.3% -20.6% Both are below replacement player averages. (Explanation of DVOA and VOA here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa). Both are JAGs, Switzer just a slightly more versatile JAG. I don't know why you are so bent out of shape over it. So what if people prefer Switzer because of these little things. Clearly there's something there that Ben is complementing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Same goes for Switz...which when you don’t play downfield, is a striking issue Sorry for the double post but wanted to quote this and comment on it because IMO it's a silly thing to comment on. I said it last year in season that we were using a committee approach to replacing Bell. Staying close to the LOS and being a safety blanket for Ben was something Bell did really well. Switzer stepped in and became that for Ben. You need guys like him in an offense, especially when you have a gun slinging QB. Using lack of downfield targets and catches as a 'knock' on a guy is somewhat ignorant of coaching, usage, offensive design. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, warfelg said: So Switzer makes up 9.4 yards on his defender and Rogers makes up 8.3 yards. My question is how that separation number relates to stay passes and bubble screens. You don’t create separation, separation is given to you. Is that accounted for? 1 hour ago, warfelg said: I don't know why you are so bent out of shape over it. Why do you keep coming back to defend Switzer then? You admit yourself he is just a jag. I don’t believe he is more versatile but okay, maybe you say that because he can return kicks? Sure. But what little things have translated? None at this point. His defense for a roster spot is he is quick and versatile? When has he used those things to success yet? He hasn’t. He has been an extremely replaceable player who hasn’t earned anything more than anyone else. If you like Switzer just because...that’s fine. But you can’t sell on him being a better player than anyone else on the “little things” because there is nothing to sell. His “versatility” and “quickness” produced nothing that’s not highly replaceable. Which is why I hope he can show that he does have some big play ability. I just don’t understand the overwhelming feeling that he is on the team - and over other players - because of what he did last year. He didn’t do anything, but there’s a perception that he’s the choice and I want to know why. Quicker and more versatile isn’t an answer if it hasn’t translated. 1 hour ago, warfelg said: Sorry for the double post but wanted to quote this and comment on it because IMO it's a silly thing to comment on. I said it last year in season that we were using a committee approach to replacing Bell. Staying close to the LOS and being a safety blanket for Ben was something Bell did really well. Switzer stepped in and became that for Ben. You need guys like him in an offense, especially when you have a gun slinging QB. Using lack of downfield targets and catches as a 'knock' on a guy is somewhat ignorant of coaching, usage, offensive design. The RBs actually filled that role adequately, almost entirely by themselves. Basically, to better results too. They did use a committee, in which Connor, Samuels, McDonald, and James all shared roles as well. Switzer was not some life saver in this department and his contributions were minimal. Do you really believe that if Eli played the entire year that he would have had WORSE success than Switz? I sure don’t. Also seems you don’t understand what I’m saying in regards to not playing downfield, seeing as you think it’s ignorant. More is expected of a player who’s receptions come closer to the line to be able to create on their own after the catch (see by quote of you saying Eli doesn’t create POST catch). Switz had a worse YPR than Bell did the year before. He doesn’t use his “quickness and versatility” to make people miss near enough to justify continuing to use him at any sort of higher rate in that capacity. That’s where I want to see him take a leap this pre-season. Make things happen. Otherwise your just another guy, which we had seen this offense with Ben churn out success with whoever is the next guy in line. Edited July 28, 2019 by Dcash4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Also go back and check the numbers for DVOA on Rogers his first year - the year he really contributed. If you want to have that conversation, it’s not even close. 18.3% DVOA and VOA the year he was a true contributor before playing 4th fiddle to Bryant, JuJu, and Brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 looking forward to seeing Diontae Spencer speed in preseason action 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Dcash4 said: My question is how that separation number relates to stay passes and bubble screens. You don’t create separation, separation is given to you. Is that accounted for? Yes. The difference between cushion and separation. I applied it the wrong way in that previous example. But the defender stays roughly the same distance from them at the snap (5.8 vs 5.7); but at time of release Switzer has an extra half yard on his defender than Eli (3.5 vs 3). Yes that is accounted for. Defenders gain more ground on Eli vs Switzer no matter the situation. Quote Why do you keep coming back to defend Switzer then? You admit yourself he is just a jag. I don’t believe he is more versatile but okay, maybe you say that because he can return kicks? Sure. But what little things have translated? None at this point. His defense for a roster spot is he is quick and versatile? When has he used those things to success yet? He hasn’t. He has been an extremely replaceable player who hasn’t earned anything more than anyone else. Because you keep on making it out like people are saying he's some superstar player and we're not. I can count on one hand how many times Eli has lines up in the backfield vs Switzer, that's versatility. Pittsburgh WR's are required to play the X, Y, and Z, so there's no leg up for either or there. Switzer being more reliable in terms of ST is for sure more versatility. His defense for a roster spot is his skillset potentially contributes more to something that can be valuable to the offense. Again, yes he's a replaceable player. Guess what replaceable players make roster with? Ability to contribute in other facets of the game. Quote If you like Switzer just because...that’s fine. But you can’t sell on him being a better player than anyone else on the “little things” because there is nothing to sell. His “versatility” and “quickness” produced nothing that’s not highly replaceable. Which is why I hope he can show that he does have some big play ability. I just don’t understand the overwhelming feeling that he is on the team - and over other players - because of what he did last year. He didn’t do anything, but there’s a perception that he’s the choice and I want to know why. Quicker and more versatile isn’t an answer if it hasn’t translated. Why do you feel big play ability is the only way to show a player is the right guy for the team? Especially after years of how all or nothing it is, or 3rd down are always deep throws? It's because we haven't had guys like this in a while. Heck....Heath Miller is the last guy that did stuff like this and people reacted the same way that he wasn't worth it because he couldn't make a big play. Not saying you don't need them. But having a guy quick in space to run the short crossings to keep the defense honest, a WR that can line up in 4-5 different spots, that's an asset to have. Quote The RBs actually filled that role adequately, almost entirely by themselves. Basically, to better results too. They did use a committee, in which Connor, Samuels, McDonald, and James all shared roles as well. Switzer was not some life saver in this department and his contributions were minimal. Do you really believe that if Eli played the entire year that he would have had WORSE success than Switz? I sure don’t. No he's no some lifesaver and I've said it was a by committee approach to replace Bell, so yes Connor, Samuels, and James played into that. Yet Samuels contributed on a per game bases the same as Switzer. I believe that in the role they wanted from them Eli would have done worse than Switz. 100%. Because they are different players with different roles. Reason I'm optimistic about Switz is there were little flashes of things, became more comfortable as the season went on. And ha was traded to us with 12 hours before final cuts. To me, coming in that late in the process and doing what he did is a positive. We got Vance at about the same time the year before and he contributed 14 catches for 188 yards in 10 games. Put that over the full 16 and that's about what Switz did. That's why I'm optimistic on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 2 hours ago, warfelg said: Yes. The difference between cushion and separation. I applied it the wrong way in that previous example. But the defender stays roughly the same distance from them at the snap (5.8 vs 5.7); but at time of release Switzer has an extra half yard on his defender than Eli (3.5 vs 3). Yes that is accounted for. Defenders gain more ground on Eli vs Switzer no matter the situation. They run different routes, as alluded to in your numbers before at depth of target. These numbers are largely irrelevant in comparison and why I asked the questions in regards to separation. Eli played more downfield than Switz. That means Eli moves TOWARD defenders, while Switz stays further away. These things are not created equal and doesn’t add enough context to make their separation numbers comparable enough to compare one against the other. 2 hours ago, warfelg said: I can count on one hand how many times Eli has lines up in the backfield vs Switzer, that's versatility I stopped here with this paragraph. If you think Switz is versatile because they put him in the backfield...I don’t know what to tell you. It’s honestly laughable. There’s a difference between doing something and being able to do something. Give me Jaylen Samuels all day over whatever that Switz backfield experiment was this year. 2 hours ago, warfelg said: Why do you feel big play ability is the only way to show a player is the right guy for the team? Because the ability to make plays on your own is quite literally the difference between replaceable dudes and guys that have 6+ year careers. Your missing my desire to see him be able to make a big play with thinking all I want is big plays. If Switz best role is being someone to catch 1 ball a game and average 5 yards...we can replace that today. With someone not currently on any roster. If they are going to keep feeding him 3 yard passes or - use him in the backfield 😂😂) - then he needs to give reason for it. He doesn’t make people miss. That’s what I want to see. Because if he can’t do that, there’s no reason for him. The ability I want to see is him turning a 3 yard catch into 10+. He hasn’t done it. It’s why I say his quickness and explosiveness hasn’t shown up yet. That’s being able to make a play. 2 hours ago, warfelg said: Heck....Heath Miller is the last guy that did stuff like this and people reacted the same way that he wasn't worth it because he couldn't make a big play If you don’t understand the difference between Miller and Switzer and what expectations of them would be. I’m not sure where we go from here. It’s an awful comparison. 2 hours ago, warfelg said: We got Vance at about the same time the year before and he contributed 14 catches for 188 yards in 10 games. Vance also missed considerably time with injury. These two things are also not considered equal. 2 hours ago, warfelg said: Reason I'm optimistic about Switz is there were little flashes of things, became more comfortable as the season went on. I don’t share the view w/ the flashes, but I’m optimistic too. I think he had the opportunity based on skill set to be the most dangerous while providing solid play, but I think he really needs to show he has more to his game than 5 yards per. It’s why I have him on my 53 prediction, but I want to see the ability before I crown him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: I want to see the ability before I crown him. I only picked this line because who's crowning him? No one. Unless saying a roster spot and likely the 4th WR is "crowning him". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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