NFCN Rivals - Packers Thread

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, soulman said:

But I say again.....why would anyone use Mitch's college rushing stats when we have two years of NFL stats to rely on.

Sorry but I'm not gonna let Mr. CWood there frame this debate by cherry picking college stats that are now useless and don't accurately reflect Mitch's rushing average or his mobility.

Jeebus, all anyone had to do was watch a few of his games to see he put up a lot of yardage with his legs.  He was 5th in rushing yardage by QBs but had a higher average per carry than all but Josh Allen.  Higher than Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson.  And this was in 14 games.

So let's put to rest any idea that Mitch isn't a mobile QB.

Because I was using it in comparison to Lamar Jackson and Joe Webb.  Unfortunately, Joe Webb hasn't had any meaningful snaps to use NFL data on, so the only data we have that we can use for all 3 was college stats.  Even if you want to throw Joe Webb out of the discussion all together, Lamar Jackson ran for 695 yards on 147 rushes in 585 snaps.  Mitch Trubisky ran for 421 yards on 68 rushes and in 929 snaps.  Stop trying to make this an argument that I never intended to make it.  I didn't say Trubisky wasn't a mobile QB.  That clearly wasn't the way I was going with the argument.  I was saying he's not the mobile QB that Lamar Jackson or Joe Webb is.  Nothing groundbreaking in that statement.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, soulman said:

OK, now I'll tackle this.

Tell me why comparing Gary to Bullard is bad on "so many levels"?  If there are so many why did you fail to mention even one?  I like facts but then based on our previous back and forths you should know that by now.

I'm basing my comparison on both players being somewhat less than perfect for the position they were drafted to play.  Bullard was too light at 275lb to play as a 3-4 DE and though he's added 20lbs he's never shown the flash and penetration skills he did in college and probably won't be re-signed as others have jumped over him on the depth chart.

Gary is also about 275lbs and are the Packers potentially asking him to play out of position as an OLB when he was more of a 4-3 DE in college?  If he fails to make an impact as an Edge Rusher will they ask him to add weight and move him to a 3-4 DE position?  No one foresaw Bullard failing to be what he was in college until he showed it as a rookie.

Let's start at the very beginning.  As someone who liked Bullard coming out of Florida as a sub-package pass rusher, he was actually kinda productive in his final year with 18 TFL and 6.5 TFL.  Rashan Gary's final 2 seasons at Michigan had a combined 18 TFL and 9 sacks.  Bullard was quite a bit more productive in college than Gary was.  But the bigger issue I have is their body types are nowhere near the same.  Just going down the list, it'll be Bullard/Gary.

Height: 6'3" / 6'4 3/8"
Weight: 285 / 277
Arm Length: 33 5/8" / 34 1/8"
40 Yard: 4.93 / 4.58
10 Yard: 1.65 / 1.63
Vertical: 32" / 38"
Broad: 11'6" / 12'
3-Cone: 7.31 / 7.26
20 Yard SS: 4.56 / 4.29

Just looking at strictly the athletic testing, Rashan Gary is a much better athlete by every metric.  And what Rashan Gary is able to do at his size is what is most impressive about him.  Bullard wasn't nearly as athletic as Gary was at a slightly bigger weight. But the bigger concern I had for Bullard coming out of Florida was that he was a positional tweener.  He was a DT/DE tweeener.  He wasn't stout enough to play DT on a regular basis, because he wasn't going to be able to hold down against the run and he wasn't twitchy enough to be an EDGE rusher.  That's not the case with Gary.  He's twitchy enough to rush the passer as we have seen.  He's an EDGE who can probably come down and play some 5T in obvious passing situation.  Honestly, not a whole lot different than Za'Darius Smith.  That's why the comp is bad.

4 hours ago, soulman said:

I'd also venture to guess we could find quite a few rookie pass rushers who did alright in their rookie year who weren't top 5 picks but then I'm not certain Gary was ever expected to be one anyway.  I'm not saying he can't be but his college stats don't indicate a guy whose coming in as a top pass rusher.  That's something he'll need to develop if he does.

Typically those who are good pass rushers in college have a much better shot at also becoming one as a pro.  This is what pro scouts tells us not something I just made up. It also why I've said all along that Leonard Floyd was not initially cut out to be a great Edge Rusher. He never was in college either so he's had to learn how to become a better one.

With pass rushers, you're taking the athletes with the tools and hoping you can mold them.  Guys with limited athletic tools who get by on pure effort usually don't have a ton of success in the NFL.  Don't get me wrong, you're going to have more than your fair share of flame outs with guys with tools, but you have to have a certain threshold for athleticism to have success.  Other than maybe cornerback, I can't think of a position that requires a baseline athleticism.  You mention wanting productivity in college, and I'll use that 2016 draft as an example.  The 2016 draft saw Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson go in the first round.  In Floyd's final year at Georgia, he had 8.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks.  In Shaq Lawson's final year at Clemson, Lawson had 24.5 TFL and 12.5 sacks.  Based on that logic, shouldn't have Lawson been picked higher and had a better career?  Leonard Floyd has been better than Lawson in the past two seasons.  The problem is Lawson just lacked the athleticism to be a great pass rusher.  His floor was relatively high, but the upside wasn't there.    It was as much about projection with Floyd as any other pass rusher in that draft, but you're not going to get a premier pass rusher by taking limited athletes.

[dll2000]

52 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

The best you've ever seen? Kenny Clark had would've stopped him for a 6 yard gain in the regular season...

Lamar is a fun player and the hurdle at the end was cool but let's slow down with the hyperbole just because it happened against the Packers.

It was an amazing run.  Guy is an amazing runner. 

His short area quickness is as good as any since Barry Sanders.

Has nothing to do with Packers.  He is capable of making anyone look stupid including Kenny Clark.

... Wait, Kenny Clark would have stuffed him you say? - lets watch that again ...

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/video/highlight-lamar-jackson-shows-video-game-moves-on-nullified-touchdown-run

So in regular season Kenny Clark is fast enough to run down Lamar Alexander who has a step on him?  LOLOLOL. Oh please. 

And who was the guy that got hurdled at end?  The best CB in all of football according to Packers fans.  

Let's not act like he did it against the 4th stringers.  Give him some credit.

 

 

 

[TheBitzMan]

57 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

It was an amazing run.  Guy is an amazing runner. 

His short area quickness is as good as any since Barry Sanders.

Has nothing to do with Packers.  He is capable of making anyone look stupid including Kenny Clark.

... Wait, Kenny Clark would have stuffed him you say? - lets watch that again ...

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/video/highlight-lamar-jackson-shows-video-game-moves-on-nullified-touchdown-run

So in regular season Kenny Clark is fast enough to run down Lamar Alexander who has a step on him?  LOLOLOL. Oh please. 

And who was the guy that got hurdled at end?  The best CB in all of football according to Packers fans.  

Let's not act like he did it against the 4th stringers.  Give him some credit.

 

 

 

Did I say stuff him? Watch the play, Kenny is walking after Lamar gets passed the line. He is still within a few feet of him when he gets to the 12 yard line. If he is running, which he would be in the regular season, he tackles him from behind, nullifying what you call one of the best runs ever. 

I said Lamar was a fun player, not arguing that at all. 

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, TheBitzMan said:

Did I say stuff him? Watch the play, Kenny is walking after Lamar gets passed the line. He is still within a few feet of him when he gets to the 12 yard line. If he is running, which he would be in the regular season, he tackles him from behind, nullifying what you call one of the best runs ever. 

I said Lamar was a fun player, not arguing that at all. 

I dunno man... I’ve watched play probably 10 times and even at a full sprint I have a hard time believing Kenny Clark runs him down from behind, both from the obvious speed disparity between the two players and from having to consider that when Clark gave up on the play the OL blocking him did too, and that probably doesn’t happen during the regular season either. 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, TheBitzMan said:

Did I say stuff him? Watch the play, Kenny is walking after Lamar gets passed the line. He is still within a few feet of him when he gets to the 12 yard line. If he is running, which he would be in the regular season, he tackles him from behind, nullifying what you call one of the best runs ever. 

I said Lamar was a fun player, not arguing that at all. 

He gave up because he had no chance of catching him.  Pre season, reg season, Super bowl.

Now would he have hustled more had it not been pre season?  Yeah, but have you seen Lamar's highlights?   Way faster guys than Clark can be literally within arms reach and he still gets away.  Like an illusion.  He needs a warning that says 'object is not as close as it appears'.

No way that Clark touches him once he is 2 yards away like he was.  Clark knows it too, why he started jogging.  Once a rabbit sees you no point in running after it from behind.

 

 

 

[malak1]

19 hours ago, dafreak said:

Looks like Rashan Gary is living up to the hype...

Patriots' Chase Winovich pulling ahead of former teammate Rashan Gary in preseason

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-patriots-chase-winovich-pulling-ahead-of-former-teammate-rashan-gary-in-preseason

NFL teams somewhat took a side between the people participating in the above-mentioned argument, with the Packers taking Gary 12th overall, while Winovich slid to the middle of the third round, where he was selected by the Patriots. So far this preseason, both have been on the field a lot, and thus their production seems to be very similar to their college tape. Gary has played 61 snaps and earned an overall grade of 56.5, which ranks 40th among rookie edge defenders, while Winovich’s grade of 92.2 on 66 snaps leads all rookie edge defenders.

Pass-rush was not Gary’s forte in college, either, and he has yet to make an impact rushing the passer, as he picked up just one hurry on 29 pass-rushing snaps while he also beat his blocker on another play where the QB got rid of the ball before he could have got there. Gary not only failed to make an impact rushing the passer, he also struggled in run defense in his first two games, failing to set the edge multiple times, which led to a run defense grade of 58.4 as he recorded no tackles on 32 run plays.

"But his RAS numbers!!!!!"

[soulman]

6 hours ago, Cheesehawk said:

Alex Smith had 355 yards rushing in his final year in Nagys system... he is one of the great mobile QBs of this generation. 

What does Alex Smith have to do with this or Nagy's "system" for that matter?

If you have a point to make then make it with more than a one liner about another QB.  It's non-sequitur to the subject of Mitch's mobility.

[soulman]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Because I was using it in comparison to Lamar Jackson and Joe Webb.  Unfortunately, Joe Webb hasn't had any meaningful snaps to use NFL data on, so the only data we have that we can use for all 3 was college stats.  Even if you want to throw Joe Webb out of the discussion all together, Lamar Jackson ran for 695 yards on 147 rushes in 585 snaps.  Mitch Trubisky ran for 421 yards on 68 rushes and in 929 snaps.  Stop trying to make this an argument that I never intended to make it.  I didn't say Trubisky wasn't a mobile QB.  That clearly wasn't the way I was going with the argument.  I was saying he's not the mobile QB that Lamar Jackson or Joe Webb is.  Nothing groundbreaking in that statement.

CWood21

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Posted 15 hours ago

16 hours ago, soulman said:

Gary is gonna face a lot of very mobile QBs in the NFL including Mitch twice a year.  The era of the pocket passer statue QB is quickly drawing to an end.  Pretty soon 2/3 of the teams anyone faces will have their own Aaron Rodger is his prime type mobile QBs.

How much weight we give to preseason will always be up for debate but as it stands losing contain is a major flaw Gary will need to correct quickly if he expects to remain a starter or you guys are gonna end up with another Jonathan Bullard type who looked terrific in college but soon found himself over matched as a pro and sliding further down the depth chart.

Very mobile?  Trubisky averaged 3.3 YPC in his lone season as a starter at North Carolina.  And neither Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford are what I'd consider mobile QBs by any means.  They might be able to maneuver around the pocket, but the notion that defenses are going to have to account for any QB inside the division as a legitimate threat to tuck it and run isn't going to happen.  The Packers might not be facing pocket QBs, but they're certainly not going to be facing a gauntlet of run-first QBs either.

 

Well now it would appear that you did sir.  In fact you're quite emphatic about it in your post above even stating his college stats which are now useless since his pro stats can easily be subbed for those.  Mitch is very mobile.

If your point is that Lamar Jackson runs more by design that I can agree with but that's not what you posted and what I responded to.  You questioned Mitch's mobility and I showed by his stats that you are incorrect about it.

You may have thought your argument was clear but it was not and I'm not the only one who corrected you about Mitch's mobility.  In fact had Mitch rushed as often as Jackson based on his ypc he'd have had 911 yard rushing.

I'm glad he didn't though 'cause I much prefer Mitch to a version 2.0 of Bobby Douglass.

Edited August 20, 2019 by soulman

[soulman]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Let's start at the very beginning.  As someone who liked Bullard coming out of Florida as a sub-package pass rusher, he was actually kinda productive in his final year with 18 TFL and 6.5 TFL.  Rashan Gary's final 2 seasons at Michigan had a combined 18 TFL and 9 sacks.  Bullard was quite a bit more productive in college than Gary was.  But the bigger issue I have is their body types are nowhere near the same.  Just going down the list, it'll be Bullard/Gary.

Height: 6'3" / 6'4 3/8"
Weight: 285 / 277
Arm Length: 33 5/8" / 34 1/8"
40 Yard: 4.93 / 4.58
10 Yard: 1.65 / 1.63
Vertical: 32" / 38"
Broad: 11'6" / 12'
3-Cone: 7.31 / 7.26
20 Yard SS: 4.56 / 4.29

Just looking at strictly the athletic testing, Rashan Gary is a much better athlete by every metric.  And what Rashan Gary is able to do at his size is what is most impressive about him.  Bullard wasn't nearly as athletic as Gary was at a slightly bigger weight. But the bigger concern I had for Bullard coming out of Florida was that he was a positional tweener.  He was a DT/DE tweeener.  He wasn't stout enough to play DT on a regular basis, because he wasn't going to be able to hold down against the run and he wasn't twitchy enough to be an EDGE rusher.  That's not the case with Gary.  He's twitchy enough to rush the passer as we have seen.  He's an EDGE who can probably come down and play some 5T in obvious passing situation.  Honestly, not a whole lot different than Za'Darius Smith.  That's why the comp is bad.

With pass rushers, you're taking the athletes with the tools and hoping you can mold them.  Guys with limited athletic tools who get by on pure effort usually don't have a ton of success in the NFL.  Don't get me wrong, you're going to have more than your fair share of flame outs with guys with tools, but you have to have a certain threshold for athleticism to have success.  Other than maybe cornerback, I can't think of a position that requires a baseline athleticism.  You mention wanting productivity in college, and I'll use that 2016 draft as an example.  The 2016 draft saw Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson go in the first round.  In Floyd's final year at Georgia, he had 8.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks.  In Shaq Lawson's final year at Clemson, Lawson had 24.5 TFL and 12.5 sacks.  Based on that logic, shouldn't have Lawson been picked higher and had a better career?  Leonard Floyd has been better than Lawson in the past two seasons.  The problem is Lawson just lacked the athleticism to be a great pass rusher.  His floor was relatively high, but the upside wasn't there.    It was as much about projection with Floyd as any other pass rusher in that draft, but you're not going to get a premier pass rusher by taking limited athletes.

That's much better but I can promise you Bullard wasn't playing at 285lbs as a rookie.  He's said himself he added over 20lbs to now play at 297lbs so coming in he and Gary were about the same weight.  And you'll get no argument from me that Gary is far more of athletic freak for a big man than Bullard which is why he went early in round one and Bullard fell all the way to round three.

But it's the position fit I focused on. Much like Aaron Donald IMHO Bullard should be a 280lb 3 tech DT in a 4-3.  But currently he's not and the extra weight has robbed him of some of his explosion and ability to penetrate as well as he did at Florida.  I don't believe he'll be back with the Bears in 2020 and whomever he signs with may move him to DT where he may be more effective. Who knows?

Gary may have the athleticism to play OLB at 277lbs.  It's possible but not assured.  If he succeeds I see a guy somewhat like Pernell McPhee who gets by mostly on strength and quickness and who can disrupt but coming out of college I don't yet see a kid whose gonna make a major impact strictly as an Edge Rusher.  He didn't show that kind of talent at Michigan either but he plays the run well.

So.....my point was both Bullard and Gary are somewhat poorly suited for the roles they were drafted to play.  Bullard was only able to overcome that by adding significant weight which slowed him down.  He's not a complete bust but in year four he's playing with the backups and may not make the 53 man roster at all.  Bullard has never achieved what initially some thought he could.

Will that also happen to Gary?  I have no idea I just put it out there as to what I saw as some similarities to Bullard.  I've got no skin in the game at all as to whether he becomes and All Pro, a bust, or something in between.  It's only my take and admittedly my take is not likely to be the same as yours.  If Gary does succeed on the edge it will be because he works hard to learn how to be good.

As for Lawson and Floyd there again we have two guys playing different positions in college.  Floyd was not strictly an OLB/Edge Rusher whereas Lawson was.  Many of us, me included, preferred Lawson.  At the 230lbs or so he played at Georgia Floyd was your classic SEC tweener and many of them fail to make an impact in the NFL.  He gained some weight for the Combine then quickly lost it again.

So when he came in as a rookie he was still under 240lbs and lacked NFL strength but like Gary he had enough freakish athleticism to succeed on occasion as an Edge Rusher.  Injuries have slowed his progress but Vic Fangio was also smart enough to begin using him more as he was used at Georgia dropping him in coverage at times and playing contain against mobile QBs.

Floyd is now over 250lbs and has added muscle and strength.  He's become a versatile OLB but not one Pace is gonna pay top dollar to unless he can become a more impactful pass rusher.  Pace exercised his 5th year option but I don't know if he'll ever see that money on a one year deal.  We'll extend him for less but only if he can kick his pass rush up a notch so we'll see how that goes.

But we might also compare Floyd to Gary in that both players did not come in as highly rated pass rushers and needed or will need to be coached up to become one.  That's all I've got.

Edited August 20, 2019 by soulman

[Heinz D.]

11 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Cmon dude, you know as well as I do that Tru was arguably the best running QB in the NFL last year.  He has great eacapability, and he protects himself with sideline or the slide.  Josh Allen ended up overtaking him in yardage at the end of the year, but that was after Mitch got hurt against the Vikings and he pretty much stopped running to protect himself.

You...sure he "knows" that? I mean, Rodgers is probably a 10X better runner than Trubisky. Right?

10 hours ago, soulman said:

PFF has lost all credibility with me.  They're like the Stephen A. Smith/Skip Bayless of NFL analytics......not to be taken seriously.

PFF has become, for the most part, garbage. I'd listen to Stephen A all day before PFF...

[beardown3231]

Guys, I can't stand Green Bay, but as a fan base arguing about how good Gary will be based primarily on combine numbers and what PFF says about him on August 19 makes us look really stupid.

I hope Gary sucks. I really do, because if he figures it out he's going to be a monster. Until then, let's discuss something else or at least have a more knowledgable conversation. Just my 2 cents

[malak1]

3 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Guys, I can't stand Green Bay, but as a fan base arguing about how good Gary will be based primarily on combine numbers and what PFF says about him on August 19 makes us look really stupid.

I hope Gary sucks. I really do, because if he figures it out he's going to be a monster. Until then, let's discuss something else or at least have a more knowledgable conversation. Just my 2 cents

What about how good he will be based on college play?

[dll2000]

10 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Guys, I can't stand Green Bay, but as a fan base arguing about how good Gary will be based primarily on combine numbers and what PFF says about him on August 19 makes us look really stupid.

I hope Gary sucks. I really do, because if he figures it out he's going to be a monster. Until then, let's discuss something else or at least have a more knowledgable conversation. Just my 2 cents

I don't think people are arguIng so much as needling each other.  

IMO Gary is a high upside traits pick. I felt that way before draft and said so, nothing in preseason has changed my mind.   I would not have taken him early based off that.  I felt he was late first, early second round value.  I probably would have went in another direction all together. 

Those guys can go either way and are high risk/high reward.  Too much risk for me.

[beardown3231]

8 hours ago, malak1 said:

What about how good he will be based on college play?

Go for it. Probably pointless too but be my guest