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53 Man Roster Predictions 2019 Edition


VonKarman

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7 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

JBURGE - Its not that the Packers don't care, I just think they don't want to allocate those resources to QB2.
The viable vet back- ups like Josh McCown or Fitz are getting $ 10 million plus, and that's a poor use of limited cap space

That's fine, but if Rodgers gets hurt again 6 weeks into the season and we miss the playoffs by 1 game, then what 

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4 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

That's fine, but if Rodgers gets hurt again 6 weeks into the season and we miss the playoffs by 1 game, then what 

The world ends? Seriously, outside of teams with 10m+ backups who can survive their starting QB going down?

Salary cap exists.

 

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I've spent a bit of time compiling a chart of offensive linemen under Kyle Shanahan and LaFleur to help illustrate the athleticism levels of the OL players for the 2016 Falcons (Red), for the 2018 49ers (Orange) and for the 2018 Titans (Blue) compared to ours (White). I think this chart speaks for itself and clearly illustrates the type of OL they prefer for their scheme. 17 of their players were in the top 23. The remaining 7 of their players were in the bottom 16.

c4S2Xop.png

Shanahan has a clear lean towards OL with a certain level of athleticism. He tries to stock as many of them as he can on the roster.  He does sometimes take outliers though so its not impossible that LaFleur will do the same. He kept guards Garnett and Tomlinson, and right around that range are our guards Madison, Pankey and Patrick. I guess I should throw Taylor in there too but if you look at his vert, 3-cone, broad - they are the worst out of everyone on the list. I am actually surprised based on those numbers that Light is getting looks at tackle in training camp but I suspect this will change as training camp goes on.

Now when you begin to take into account LaFleur's Titans OL. Again much of them were in the top half but surprisingly he kept a number of unathletic OL on his roster, this can easily be explained. In 2018 the year LaFleur was hired the Titans had only 4 draft picks and none of them were used on the OL. However they made 3 free agent OL signings - Pamphile, Kline and Su'a-Filo (not ranked as he was cut at 53 roster cut down), all three ranked in the top half - a clear. concerted effort to increase the athletic levels of the OL. We saw this again with us signing Turner and drafting Jenkins. LaFleur clearly favours athletic OL for his scheme.

There's that sweet spot between Gillam and Person where many players falls under. The good news is that three of our starting OL fell within that range but our backups is another story.

If I drew an imaginary cut-off line under Mike Person the majority of the Packers OL is below this line. So that means in terms of depth LaFleur is not going to be able to stock enough OL with the required athleticism. He's going to have to compromise by keeping some of them on the roster.

An interesting thing to note is that Shanahan has strong preference for OL over 6'5".  Whether that means anything for LaFleur I don't know but it's something to remember for next year's draft as he continues to shape his offence. The Packers starting OL tend to be 6'3" or 6'4" (Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Sitton, Lang, Tretter, Evans) only Bulaga was the odd one out. Had Bulaga been on a Shanahan offence he would've been considered the norm. It will be interesting to see if the height requirements changes under LaFleur. 

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3 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

How crazy would it be around here if the Packers took Daniels $ 10 million and spent it on a vet back up QB ?

It's hard to stomach with QB1's salary, but I would support it. 

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Question: Would it be kosher for the Packers to lean heavily on Mercedes Lewis in training camp to teach the young TEs how to block and then cut him just before the season starts? I know they can do it if they want to, I just wonder if it would undermine morale. Maybe they offer him a job on the coaching staff. As little as he was used last year, it's hard to picture him having a significant role this year. When he's on the field, you are telegraphing a running play. 

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4 hours ago, SSG said:

I think Grant and the rookie will have to knock people's socks off at camp for that to happen.  

Dexter, Grant, or whoever would have to outperform Williams, but I think that is in the realm of possibility.

Williams is a career 3.7 YPC back (AJ behind the same line is a 5.5). He's had a large enough sample size to show that he at best is just a #3 replacement level back (falls forward, doesn't make people miss). 

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from The Athletic and Jay Glazer
telling me to pump the brakes on the kizer sucks comments:

"You never know what a team is working on. I compare training camp to sparring. You’re going to work on things that you’re not good at. Sometimes when you see someone is really struggling in camp at a certain position or if a quarterback is not completing a lot of passes, it’s because they are trying to work on certain things and those things take reps to get right. They’re seeing if it works, they’re seeing how it gels, and that’s when you’ve got to knock the kinks out."

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1 hour ago, pacman5252 said:

Dexter, Grant, or whoever would have to outperform Williams, but I think that is in the realm of possibility.

Williams is a career 3.7 YPC back (AJ behind the same line is a 5.5). He's had a large enough sample size to show that he at best is just a #3 replacement level back (falls forward, doesn't make people miss). 

He's pretty good in pass protection though, something AJ has not shown to be very adept at. I like Dexter Williams but not sure he's going to be ready to take on the 3rd down role as a pass blocker.

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2 hours ago, Greg C. said:

Question: Would it be kosher for the Packers to lean heavily on Mercedes Lewis in training camp to teach the young TEs how to block and then cut him just before the season starts? I know they can do it if they want to, I just wonder if it would undermine morale. Maybe they offer him a job on the coaching staff. As little as he was used last year, it's hard to picture him having a significant role this year. When he's on the field, you are telegraphing a running play. 

I think he was criminally underused last year. I have no evidence for this, but I don’t really buy that he’s a bubble guy. 

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4 hours ago, Chili said:

I've spent a bit of time compiling a chart of offensive linemen under Kyle Shanahan and LaFleur to help illustrate the athleticism levels of the OL players for the 2016 Falcons (Red), for the 2018 49ers (Orange) and for the 2018 Titans (Blue) compared to ours (White). I think this chart speaks for itself and clearly illustrates the type of OL they prefer for their scheme. 17 of their players were in the top 23. The remaining 7 of their players were in the bottom 16.

c4S2Xop.png

Shanahan has a clear lean towards OL with a certain level of athleticism. He tries to stock as many of them as he can on the roster.  He does sometimes take outliers though so its not impossible that LaFleur will do the same. He kept guards Garnett and Tomlinson, and right around that range are our guards Madison, Pankey and Patrick. I guess I should throw Taylor in there too but if you look at his vert, 3-cone, broad - they are the worst out of everyone on the list. I am actually surprised based on those numbers that Light is getting looks at tackle in training camp but I suspect this will change as training camp goes on.

Now when you begin to take into account LaFleur's Titans OL. Again much of them were in the top half but surprisingly he kept a number of unathletic OL on his roster, this can easily be explained. In 2018 the year LaFleur was hired the Titans had only 4 draft picks and none of them were used on the OL. However they made 3 free agent OL signings - Pamphile, Kline and Su'a-Filo (not ranked as he was cut at 53 roster cut down), all three ranked in the top half - a clear. concerted effort to increase the athletic levels of the OL. We saw this again with us signing Turner and drafting Jenkins. LaFleur clearly favours athletic OL for his scheme.

There's that sweet spot between Gillam and Person where many players falls under. The good news is that three of our starting OL fell within that range but our backups is another story.

If I drew an imaginary cut-off line under Mike Person the majority of the Packers OL is below this line. So that means in terms of depth LaFleur is not going to be able to stock enough OL with the required athleticism. He's going to have to compromise by keeping some of them on the roster.

An interesting thing to note is that Shanahan has strong preference for OL over 6'5".  Whether that means anything for LaFleur I don't know but it's something to remember for next year's draft as he continues to shape his offence. The Packers starting OL tend to be 6'3" or 6'4" (Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Sitton, Lang, Tretter, Evans) only Bulaga was the odd one out. Had Bulaga been on a Shanahan offence he would've been considered the norm. It will be interesting to see if the height requirements changes under LaFleur. 

Woof.  Curious why you would go through all of that work, only to promote cutting the guy who is 4th on your list (Spriggs) while keeping De Beer and Pankey... who aren't even close?

In other news, Light was taking reps with the 1s at RT and LT today.  Don't think he's gonna be cut.

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10 hours ago, Chili said:

I've spent a bit of time compiling a chart of offensive linemen under Kyle Shanahan and LaFleur to help illustrate the athleticism levels of the OL players for the 2016 Falcons (Red), for the 2018 49ers (Orange) and for the 2018 Titans (Blue) compared to ours (White). I think this chart speaks for itself and clearly illustrates the type of OL they prefer for their scheme. 17 of their players were in the top 23. The remaining 7 of their players were in the bottom 16.

c4S2Xop.png

Shanahan has a clear lean towards OL with a certain level of athleticism. He tries to stock as many of them as he can on the roster.  He does sometimes take outliers though so its not impossible that LaFleur will do the same. He kept guards Garnett and Tomlinson, and right around that range are our guards Madison, Pankey and Patrick. I guess I should throw Taylor in there too but if you look at his vert, 3-cone, broad - they are the worst out of everyone on the list. I am actually surprised based on those numbers that Light is getting looks at tackle in training camp but I suspect this will change as training camp goes on.

Now when you begin to take into account LaFleur's Titans OL. Again much of them were in the top half but surprisingly he kept a number of unathletic OL on his roster, this can easily be explained. In 2018 the year LaFleur was hired the Titans had only 4 draft picks and none of them were used on the OL. However they made 3 free agent OL signings - Pamphile, Kline and Su'a-Filo (not ranked as he was cut at 53 roster cut down), all three ranked in the top half - a clear. concerted effort to increase the athletic levels of the OL. We saw this again with us signing Turner and drafting Jenkins. LaFleur clearly favours athletic OL for his scheme.

There's that sweet spot between Gillam and Person where many players falls under. The good news is that three of our starting OL fell within that range but our backups is another story.

If I drew an imaginary cut-off line under Mike Person the majority of the Packers OL is below this line. So that means in terms of depth LaFleur is not going to be able to stock enough OL with the required athleticism. He's going to have to compromise by keeping some of them on the roster.

An interesting thing to note is that Shanahan has strong preference for OL over 6'5".  Whether that means anything for LaFleur I don't know but it's something to remember for next year's draft as he continues to shape his offence. The Packers starting OL tend to be 6'3" or 6'4" (Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Sitton, Lang, Tretter, Evans) only Bulaga was the odd one out. Had Bulaga been on a Shanahan offence he would've been considered the norm. It will be interesting to see if the height requirements changes under LaFleur. 

I appreciate the time you spent compiling this, but I’d be willing to bet most teams tend to keep the more athletic players...just cause they’re better...athletes. Ya know?

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