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lumberjackchris

53 Man Roster plus more (There's always next year)

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1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Is J Joe out for a while?

I know K Jo out 4-6 weeks... I think J Joe was just banged up

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I can't keep up with it the roster anymore but I think we have Hopkins/Miller/Ellington at WR this week and Anderson/Griffin at TE plus Ervin who has been our 2nd best WR. 

BOB said Blue is back but that he's not really gonna be part of the RB rotation. 

Miller might be cut next year. Foreman is proving himself to be a legit everydown back, so why pay Miller 7 million? Ervin can spell Foreman. 

 

Allen is still out. It's going to be a huge upgrade when he takes over for FILO   I WOULdnt be surprised to see us cut him

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

I can't keep up with it the roster anymore but I think we have Hopkins/Miller/Ellington at WR this week and Anderson/Griffin at TE plus Ervin who has been our 2nd best WR. 

I don't even think of Ervin as a RB anymore. He plays in the slot more than any other position player on the team, and probably sees more snaps at slot than RB. If we could, I'd change his number to 84 and call him a WR going forward. He's clearly got the skills to be a very good slot. 

28 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Miller might be cut next year. Foreman is proving himself to be a legit everydown back, so why pay Miller 7 million? Ervin can spell Foreman. 

I'm OK with cutting Miller, but see above on Ervin spelling Foreman next season. I'd much rather see Ervin on the WR depth chart vs the RB depth chart going forward. RBs are a dime a dozen. Quick slot WRs are harder to find.

30 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Allen is still out. It's going to be a huge upgrade when he takes over for FILO   I WOULdnt be surprised to see us cut him

Susan is gonna stick around simply because the quality and depth of this OL is horrible. Allen is incredibly fragile as well as incompetent, so I expect to see Allen and Susan platoon at G, much like how Aboushi and Susan rotated last season. 

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25 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

Why would we cut Miller? His contract isn't even bad. 

because 7 million for a RB can be spent elsewhere when we have a guy on a rookie deal who is better.

Ervin can play both Slot and RB, he could turn into a very good weapon for us. 

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30 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

because 7 million for a RB can be spent elsewhere when we have a guy on a rookie deal who is better.

Ervin can play both Slot and RB, he could turn into a very good weapon for us. 

Ervin isn't a good RB, and he is unproven at WR. We have a nice 1-2 duo at RB. Cutting Miller will make RB another need for us.

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On 9/21/2017 at 11:34 AM, Texansfan713 said:

Ervin isn't a good RB, and he is unproven at WR. We have a nice 1-2 duo at RB. Cutting Miller will make RB another need for us.

I don't quite get the D'Onta Foreman love around here.  13 rushes for 44 yards, 3.4 average with a long of 9 yards, no catches, no td's, doesn't exactly scream - "we're set - cut the starter."  Showed some flashes in pre-season or more specifically one 41 yard run against backups and the same 3.4 ypc in 15 other nondescript rushes for 52 yards.  Now I've been banging the drum that O'Brien is horribly misusing Miller by constantly running him in between the tackles considering we have the worst set of guards in the NFL and his primary strength is his speed and elusiveness, but that doesn't mean the answer is to just hand the ball to the bigger slower guy and expect him to just run through guys in the absence of holes as that just doesn't work in the NFL.  What is required is to get XSF aka XtraSuperFat & Fat Allen & Breno Suckaweenie off our damn football field, Duane Brown on it, variety and creativity in the playcalling, a TE who can block, using Miller out in space where he can make people miss, and for God's sake - stop thinking running into piles on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 will EVER work for this team.  We have to stretch the field BOTH vertically AND horizontally as we are currently working in very crowded phonebooth largely filled with our fat unathletic lineman.  Foreman can certainly do more damage than Blue (who does most of his damage running into the backsides of our lineman), but let's pump the brakes before switching from blame the QB to blame the HB because Watson is in his honeymoon phase.  We need all the talent we can find at RB to overcome this abysmal line lil Ricky has saddled us with, and Lamar Miller is easily the 2nd or 3rd most powerful weapon we have if used properly.  Helll, still wondering why the hell Jordan Todman is on this team over Akeem Hunt who rattled off of 40 yard kickoff return on his first play back in KC. 

Edited by Apollo Stallion

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1 hour ago, Apollo Stallion said:

I don't quite get the D'Onta Foreman love around here.  13 rushes for 44 yards, 3.4 average with a long of 9 yards, no catches, no td's, doesn't exactly scream - "we're set - cut the starter." 

My take is less about Foreman (who is somebody I'm very high on) and more about Miller being paid as the 4th highest RB in the NFL (behind only Levion Bell, Shady McCoy and DeMarco Murray). 

At this point, production doesn't match the paycheck. We know he's not an inside runner, but everyone in his pay grade is. They're just as effective on the outside runs, too. So, why pay waygu ribeye prices for a burger? Yeah, I like s burger, but not for that price.

College Football is basically a puppy mill for guys like Miller - fast runners with some dynamic ability at the 2nd level, good targets out of the backfield, but not exactly guys who can be the bellcow. You can replace him at a 10x discount with pretty much any back in the PAC 12.

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3 hours ago, EliteTexan80 said:

My take is less about Foreman (who is somebody I'm very high on) and more about Miller being paid as the 4th highest RB in the NFL (behind only Levion Bell, Shady McCoy and DeMarco Murray). 

At this point, production doesn't match the paycheck. We know he's not an inside runner, but everyone in his pay grade is. They're just as effective on the outside runs, too. So, why pay waygu ribeye prices for a burger? Yeah, I like s burger, but not for that price.

College Football is basically a puppy mill for guys like Miller - fast runners with some dynamic ability at the 2nd level, good targets out of the backfield, but not exactly guys who can be the bellcow. You can replace him at a 10x discount with pretty much any back in the PAC 12.

Sorry to fact check ya on this one, but Miller is:

  • #6 by Overall Value (Freeman, McCoy, Doug Martin, Chris Ivory, and Leonard Fournette)
  • #7 by Total guaranteed (McAffery)
  • #7 by Avg Guaranteed yr (Bell, Elliot)

Last year he was 6th in rushing yards amongst those on 2nd contracts/10th overall while missing 3 games largely due to ridiculous overuse early in the season. O'Brien also fails to utilize his strength in the passing game which should add 50 rec / 500 yards as he projected in Miami. The run game improved from 15th to 5th with Miller last year and that's with teams stacking the line begging Osweiler to throw.

Now we can argue about the wisdom of signing FA RBs (rarely works out) or ever resigning and RB to a 2nd contract due to declining productivity at 27-28.  Matter of fact, I have long argued that it never makes sense to resign RBs to long-term 2nd contracts as cycling rookie deals and 1 year contracts is far more efficient, but RB contracts have fallen so much it's not necessarily the case anymore.  For instance, Arian Foster got 5/$45 million with $20 million guaranteed vs 4 yr / $26 million - $14 million guarantee for Miller which is a significant gap straight up, but you have to adjust for the fact the NFL salary cap has gone up nearly $35 million since Foster signed, a 30% increase.
 

 

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If you want to talk value vs. productivity consider for a second that Jeff Allen was signed to a 4 year / $28 million deal w/ $12 million guaranteed despite having lost his job in 2013, starting only 9 games in 2014-2015.  Yes, my friend we pay that fat sack of crap MORE than we pay Miller.  Miller was a top 10 back for us, Allen was the lowest rated starting guard in the NFL by far (#72 of 77 overall).

Number fun aside, Miller's contract is sunk cost this year for sure since cutting Miller makes his cap figure go UP by $2 million in addition to $8.5 in dead space.  Cutting next year would save $4.7 million cap with $2 million dead space.  Cutting in 2019 would save $6.25 with $1 million dead space. 

Remember, it's not like we are up against the cap this year even with Osweiler burning $9 milllion in dead space as we're sitting around with $7.3 million now & $30 million in 2018 and that's before we cut Cushing and free up another $8.5 million.  We have almost no free agents to resign for 2018 with 34 year old Joseph being the only star, and XSF and Mancz the only other starters (if XSF is resigned, I'm done). Clowney is likely resigned a year early and he'll make some coin ($60-$80 million is my guess), but as a #1 overall pick he already counts $13.8 against our 2018 cap, so resigning him will likely REDUCE his cap figure as we'll convert that salary to bonus and spread out over 5 years.  Watt only counts $14 million in cap dollars this year and for all the hype, Clowney has 10.5 sacks into his 4th season while Watt had 57 and was the 2 time reigning NFL Defensive MVP/3 time All-Pro at resigning.

In short, money ain't our problem - talent is.  Having Jeff Allen at RG vs. Brandon Brooks is currently saving us a whole $800,000 in cap dollars. We paid Tony Bergstrom $2.5 million dollars last year to play 3 snaps, folks!  Breno Giacomini is getting $2 million.  We could have AJ Bouye right now getting paid his $5.5 million and still have $2 million in cap to spare. 

 

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Call me crazy but if we're talking salary vs. production it is more insane that Andre Hal is getting paid $5.5 as an average/below average safety, the same cap figure Bouye is getting after a season ranked amongst the elite cover corners in the NFL (Talib, Butler, Harris, Newman, Peterson, Jenkins, Bouye). As a reminder, corners who can't cover get demoted to safety - Glover Quin is still one of the best and is playing on a $13 million deal w/avg guarantee at $2.9 million per year.  Kareem Jackson still can't hold Quin's jock in coverage yet is playing on a $34 million deal average $5 million avg guarantee/season. Franchise tag for safety is the 2nd lowest non kicking position (TE), a full 30% lower than CB as a barometer for elite level safety vs. corner better yet below average safety to elite corner.

Sure paying Bouye elite cover corner money based on one great year was a risk, but I'd rather spend money on something I KNOW was working vs. gambling on Kevin Johnson staying healthy and developing coverage skills he hasn't shown thus far and we already know we lost that gamble.  Even IF he KJo stays healthy next year and transforms into a #1 CB, all that means is we're giving him Bouye money in 2019.   J. Joseph is the best FA signing Rick ever made (or will ever make) and is a bargain at $6.9 million this year, but with his contract expiring at the end of the year and him turning 34 the timing lined up perfectly for the expensive years of Bouye's prime. If we kept Bouye, it's also was the perfect year to transition Kareem Jackson to safety and with his deal up after 2018, after this season we make him restructure at safety appropriate salary in exchange for 3 additional years or we let him play out the final year and let him walk with his $9 million cap figure buying us a top 10 safety or franchise him as a safety which is barely a raise.  What we have instead is a garbage FS in Gilchrist who is our 12 highest paid player getting $2.5 million to job share with barely rosterable guys like Corey Moore, Pleasant, and Drummond.  Our top rated secondary from last year now features bottom of the barrel in-season street FA scrubs Marcus Burley at nickel and Johnthan Banks at dime with Treston DeCoud only on the roster to spare the GM the embarrassment of his 5th round "replacement" for Bouye not make the team.  

Rick Smith's draft record outside the first 2 rounds is appalling enough, but what is even more maddening is that the few 3rd-7th rounders who have earned 2nd contracts have gotten them from other teams.  Brooks, Jones, Crick, Yates, Mitchell, Quin + Bouye.  Strong, Swearinger, Bullock,  Shelley Smith, Chris Jones were all cut during their rookie deals, but latched onto other teams and are still in the league.  Resigning Hal, Prosch, Fido, Griffin this year literally doubled his 2nd contract total with Newton, Garret Graham (cut a year later), McCain (cut 2 years later).  That's 7 of 53 picks 2007-2014 playing football for us 4 years later (13%), and a staggering 40 players - 75% who lasted 4 years or less in the entire league!  BTW - Rick Smith has NEVER resigned one of his 2nd rounders to a 2nd contract (Barwin, Reed, Swearinger all enjoying great success with their 2nd and 3rd teams, Ben Tate flaming out in a few months).   God help me if XSF is the first and hopefully Slick Rick is gone by the time McKinney is up in 2019.

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7 hours ago, EliteTexan80 said:

My take is less about Foreman (who is somebody I'm very high on) and more about Miller being paid as the 4th highest RB in the NFL (behind only Levion Bell, Shady McCoy and DeMarco Murray). 

At this point, production doesn't match the paycheck. We know he's not an inside runner, but everyone in his pay grade is. They're just as effective on the outside runs, too. So, why pay waygu ribeye prices for a burger? Yeah, I like s burger, but not for that price.

College Football is basically a puppy mill for guys like Miller - fast runners with some dynamic ability at the 2nd level, good targets out of the backfield, but not exactly guys who can be the bellcow. You can replace him at a 10x discount with pretty much any back in the PAC 12.

 Final point on this, then I'm out.  Seems to me I've heard very similar arguments before with Ben Tate vs. Arian Foster.  Tate showed up out of shape in 2010  (like Foreman) but still impressed in some pre-season games before getting hurt and redshirted.  Next year Tate is buried on the depth chart early, but injuries to Slaton and Ward bump him up to #2 and he does a solid job salting away leads behind our best o-line ever with Foster winning rushing titles.  Foster is an ERFA in 2012 plenty on this very site were advocating just letting Foster walk and transitioning to Tate since he was the cheaper option and he was the "more powerful" runner.  Well, we resigned Foster and he responded with a 1,424 yard season while Ben Tate moped, got fat again and sat out 2 months with a minor injuries leaving Kubiak to abuse Foster to the tune of nearly 400 touches (and killing his 2013 season). 

The Tate vs. Foster money debate came up again after 2013 when again people on this site and elsewhere were proclaiming that Cleveland got the better back when we let Ben Tate walk and that he'd emerge as the younger healthier franchise back carrying the Browns back to relevance.  Foster ran for 1,246 yards in 13 games that year before Kubiak ran him into the ground again while Tate wore out his welcome in Cleveland in less than 2 months and was cut, lasted another couple games in Minny and was out of the league.   Not saying Miller is all that Foster was, but he also cost 1/2 as much, and not saying Foreman has the flaws Tate did, but he's thrown up some flags getting arrested and showing up out of shape. 

For every Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard, and David Johnson that lives up to the "sleeper" hype to seize the job and make it his there are way more Rashad Jennings, Matt Jones, Chris Ivory types that wow folks as "punishing" backs in limited carries only to completely flop when handed full time jobs because hitting holes and making people miss is how NFL backs not named Marshawn Lynch are successful.  What scares me even more about Foreman is that he is a big back who isn't particularly good inside the tackles, is useless in passing situations as he can't block to save his (or his Qbs) life, and has so little experience as a receiver.  He simply doesn't profile as this every down back people want to annoint him to around here and that's before we start getting into his ball security issues which rendered Steve Slaton useless after such a promising start. I HOPE he proves me wrong and I'll admit to being more conflicted than I was with Tate and Blue (and Kenny Hilliard) who I hated from day one, but even IF he turns out to be an effective thunder, we absolutely still need the lightning Miller can provide in space.  If giving Foreman more early down carries lets us use Miller more in the passing game, I'm all for it.     

 

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7 hours ago, Apollo Stallion said:

In short, money ain't our problem - talent is.  Having Jeff Allen at RG vs. Brandon Brooks is currently saving us a whole $800,000 in cap dollars. We paid Tony Bergstrom $2.5 million dollars last year to play 3 snaps, folks!  Breno Giacomini is getting $2 million.  We could have AJ Bouye right now getting paid his $5.5 million and still have $2 million in cap to spare. 

So depressing 

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On 9/22/2017 at 9:45 PM, Apollo Stallion said:

Sorry to fact check ya on this one, but Miller is:

  • #6 by Overall Value (Freeman, McCoy, Doug Martin, Chris Ivory, and Leonard Fournette)
  • #7 by Total guaranteed (McAffery)
  • #7 by Avg Guaranteed yr (Bell, Elliot)

Allow me to clarify - he's 4th overall in cap hit among RBs. Which is ultimately the most important figure when deciding whether or not the production fits the price - how much does he cost when weighed against cap allocation:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/running-back/

Nonetheless, let's look at the names you mentioned and the names I mentioned - of them, I'd only take Miller over Ivory (and the Jags have taken steps to phase Ivory out of their plans). None of those names above (sans Ivory and the two rookies) is scheme limited - each one of them can be put into pretty much any situation and succeed - run inside, outside, catch passes in the flat (not sure on Fournette, but he more than compensates with his ability elsewhere). 

It's not a slam dunk decision for me, and I'm perfectly fine with letting Miller serve his role for the next 1-2 seasons. I'm not advocating cutting him NOW.

 

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On 9/22/2017 at 11:19 PM, Apollo Stallion said:

We have almost no free agents to resign for 2018 with 34 year old Joseph being the only star, and XSF and Mancz the only other starters (if XSF is resigned, I'm done).

Bernardrick McKinney is also probably due a deal. You don't let an All Pro ILB go into a lame duck year, especially when you're already done with his roided out counterpart. That's going to be a pretty hefty deal in itself.

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