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2020 Draft Thread


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10 hours ago, sherm said:

Trautman profile has risen since the end of the football season. He'll probably go mid 2nd rd. Another guy I've been looking at recently is Albert Okwuegbunam from Mizzou. Athletic freak from the TE position. Needs work to become a better run blocker but could help the passing gm in yr 1. Kyle has to love his film when he saw it. Absolute RZ target. 

Dunno anymore. Your first two sentences are something I'd have said with conviction just years back.. only to end up seeing the guy waiting to be selected in the 5th round. 

I'm way ignorant of many prospects. All I read about Albert O is that aside from speed, he's got a ways to go at football. 

 

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I may get some hate for this, not wouldn't be too upset if we take Fulton with the 13th pick. Really talented man corner and has nice athleticism. Not THAT much if anything separates Okudah from Henderson and Fulton. Okudah is more physical in the run game but the other two can cover their a$$es off. 

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25 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I may get some hate for this, not wouldn't be too upset if we take Fulton with the 13th pick. Really talented man corner and has nice athleticism. Not THAT much if anything separates Okudah from Henderson and Fulton. Okudah is more physical in the run game but the other two can cover their a$$es off. 

I've said it before, but I just think it's so much harder to sustain a good team through defense. I Don't think its the way to do it in this day and age. Defenses are subject to much greater volatility in my opinion, which makes it really difficult. I think the way to go about it is to have the great offense with a defense that is basically competent to above average with some ability to step up big when needed. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

I've said it before, but I just think it's so much harder to sustain a good team through defense. I Don't think its the way to do it in this day and age. Defenses are subject to much greater volatility in my opinion, which makes it really difficult. I think the way to go about it is to have the great offense with a defense that is basically competent to above average with some ability to step up big when needed. 

You already know my thinking behind this as I was all for getting OBJ so we could field an elite offense. In 2018, three of the four teams in the conference championship game all fielded top 5 offenses. Last year all four teams had top 10 offenses. So I am fully behind continuing to build off the offense, but you need good pass coverage in today's game. Defense doesn't give to be super elite or anything, but need to have at least a competent pass defense. And if you can field a top level pass defense with a top 5 offense, that almost makes the team unstoppable. So while I prefer Jeudy and Ruggs with our first pick, I would have NO issue at all taking Henderson or Fulton with the 13th pick. 

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

I've said it before, but I just think it's so much harder to sustain a good team through defense. I Don't think its the way to do it in this day and age. Defenses are subject to much greater volatility in my opinion, which makes it really difficult. I think the way to go about it is to have the great offense with a defense that is basically competent to above average with some ability to step up big when needed. 

I agree on some level. It's harder to maintain a dominant defense because it really takes 13-14 quality players to have a good one. Defenses rely much much more on talent than offenses because they are at a disadvantage schematically due to the factthe offense dictates the terms (personnel groups, formations, in addition to the actual plays themselves) Also, if you have a few bad players on defense it can hamstring your entire defense, where as if you have a few bad offensive players you can do things to counteract that much more easily.

So, it takes more good players (and therefore draft/$$$ capital) on defense to have a good defense as opposed to offense. 

Here is the thing though, we could have a really good offense without top flight talent. Our coaching gives us a schematic advantage on that side of the ball. Other teams would need to have more offensive talent than we would to have a similar offense. Because of this, it makes more sense to spend more resources on defense year over year to build in a competitive advantage overall. 

Basically, the delta (change) in offensive production we would gain by having top flight offensive talent is less than the delta (change) in defensive production we will get by having top flight defensive talent. Because of this, it makes the most sense to continue to build our defense. 

 

Essentially what I am saying is KYLE SHANAHAN >>>>> 

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14 minutes ago, Forge said:

I've said it before, but I just think it's so much harder to sustain a good team through defense. I Don't think its the way to do it in this day and age. Defenses are subject to much greater volatility in my opinion, which makes it really difficult. I think the way to go about it is to have the great offense with a defense that is basically competent to above average with some ability to step up big when needed. 

 

For me though i think a great offense is more often about having a great QB, a good OL and a great OC then it is about talent on all positions. On defense its way harder to get by with lesser talent because a good offense will expose a weakness. Which is why spending more draft capital and money on that side is usually a better idea because you can sustain a great offense way easier. 

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11 minutes ago, N4L said:

I agree on some level. It's harder to maintain a dominant defense because it really takes 13-14 quality players to have a good one. Defenses rely much much more on talent than offenses because they are at a disadvantage schematically due to the factthe offense dictates the terms (personnel groups, formations, in addition to the actual plays themselves) Also, if you have a few bad players on defense it can hamstring your entire defense, where as if you have a few bad offensive players you can do things to counteract that much more easily.

So, it takes more good players (and therefore draft/$$$ capital) on defense to have a good defense as opposed to offense. 

Here is the thing though, we could have a really good offense without top flight talent. Our coaching gives us a schematic advantage on that side of the ball. Other teams would need to have more offensive talent than we would to have a similar offense. Because of this, it makes more sense to spend more resources on defense year over year to build in a competitive advantage overall. 

Basically, the delta (change) in offensive production we would gain by having top flight offensive talent is less than the delta (change) in defensive production we will get by having top flight defensive talent. Because of this, it makes the most sense to continue to build our defense. 

 

Essentially what I am saying is KYLE SHANAHAN >>>>> 

I think you overrate the offensive ability just a tad. There's a reason we needed Manny. Our passing offense before Manny was not good. It certainly wasn't super bowl caliber. 

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14 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

 

For me though i think a great offense is more often about having a great QB, a good OL and a great OC then it is about talent on all positions. On defense its way harder to get by with lesser talent because a good offense will expose a weakness. Which is why spending more draft capital and money on that side is usually a better idea because you can sustain a great offense way easier. 

We have one of those three, it's important to remember lol. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

We have one of those three, it's important to remember lol. 

Yeah altough i would even put him above great. Really i wouldn't mind if we went with say a Jordan Love if he was there at our spot to develop him behind Jimmy for a year. Our O-line is average to good in my eyes if you compare it around the league. We can improve on especially the interior but Richburg and Tomlinson where both at least above average last year and Staley and McGlinchey are fine. If Wirfs, Thomas or Wills are at 13 again i wouldn't hate the pick just like i would get why we would take a guy like Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs. However for the most part i am of the camp that drafting D early is more important than O. Simply because you can get by with lesser talent at RB, WR and TE as long as they have a specific skill.

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Just now, Justone2 said:

Yeah altough i would even put him above great. Really i wouldn't mind if we went with say a Jordan Love if he was there at our spot to develop him behind Jimmy for a year. Our O-line is average to good in my eyes if you compare it around the league. We can improve on especially the interior but Richburg and Tomlinson where both at least above average last year and Staley and McGlinchey are fine. If Wirfs, Thomas or Wills are at 13 again i wouldn't hate the pick just like i would get why we would take a guy like Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs. However for the most part i am of the camp that drafting D early is more important than O. Simply because you can get by with lesser talent at RB, WR and TE as long as they have a specific skill.

FWIW, I believe that it's very difficult to objectively quantify offensive line performance through statistics, so I don't like giving the metrics out there a ton of credit, but the strength of our offensive line is definitely in the run game portion of our offense, especially when you consider the added context of Jimmy G being one of the faster players to unload the football as far as quarterbacks go. But FO, PFF, ESPN...not super kind to our pass blocking acumen. FO had us middle of the road, and their's isn't contextualized for time to throw. In pass block win rate, espn rated one of the worst in the NFL, and PFF had us about middle of the road. I do think that if a tackle is on the board at 13, he's on the table. 

I think the quarterback selection is a super fun hypothetical. I don't think that the team would ever change quarterbacks mid stream in a super bowl window, and I don't think that we will draft one, but it's definitely a fun hypothetical to consider. But we also have to give Jimmy more time to grow. Double edged sword there. I think he kind of is what he is, but obviously some people are high on him, and it's not like he was incompetent last year. I think he's just kind of okay. I brought it up on the pod with Y2 on whether or not he would trade JImmy to NE for 2 first round picks and wing it with Cam / Winston / Dalton (and you may be able to throw someone like Derek Carr into that mix). I don't think that you can do that (asking one of those guys to learn and be good in the system right away is asking a lot), but on the surface with regards to talent, I don't know that you actually lose a whole ton (it's just what you lose everywhere else) 

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23 minutes ago, Forge said:

FWIW, I believe that it's very difficult to objectively quantify offensive line performance through statistics, so I don't like giving the metrics out there a ton of credit, but the strength of our offensive line is definitely in the run game portion of our offense, especially when you consider the added context of Jimmy G being one of the faster players to unload the football as far as quarterbacks go. But FO, PFF, ESPN...not super kind to our pass blocking acumen. FO had us middle of the road, and their's isn't contextualized for time to throw. In pass block win rate, espn rated one of the worst in the NFL, and PFF had us about middle of the road. I do think that if a tackle is on the board at 13, he's on the table. 

I think the quarterback selection is a super fun hypothetical. I don't think that the team would ever change quarterbacks mid stream in a super bowl window, and I don't think that we will draft one, but it's definitely a fun hypothetical to consider. But we also have to give Jimmy more time to grow. Double edged sword there. I think he kind of is what he is, but obviously some people are high on him, and it's not like he was incompetent last year. I think he's just kind of okay. I brought it up on the pod with Y2 on whether or not he would trade JImmy to NE for 2 first round picks and wing it with Cam / Winston / Dalton (and you may be able to throw someone like Derek Carr into that mix). I don't think that you can do that (asking one of those guys to learn and be good in the system right away is asking a lot), but on the surface with regards to talent, I don't know that you actually lose a whole ton (it's just what you lose everywhere else) 

Yeah O-line is a hard one to quantify and i would agree our pass blocking is average at best but we are pretty good in the run game. 

 

For the QB situation i think Jimmy is our QB for next year. However not restructuring his contract to make space this offseason really tells me the FO and Kyle aren't 100% commited to him for the longer term. If Kyle loves one of the  other QB's besides Tua and Burrow (simply out of our range 100%) i can totally see us grabbing one at 13. Would i take that trade this year probably not and if i would i think the chance is bigger we roll with Mullens and a rookie. I think the biggest problem with one of the veteran QB's is exactly what you say and that is learning the system so then i would roll with Mullens probably.

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I don't think it needs to be completely black and white in terms of having to take a defensive player or offensive player in the first round. The current rules obviously make it much tougher on the defense so even top defenses tend to get done by elite offenses. You just simply can't hold off elite offenses for long, can just hope to contain them. However, you still need to have a good enough defense, especially pass defense to win it all. All four offenses in the conference championship game per DVOA, were top 10 in offense. But three of the four teams (SF/KC/GB) were also top 10 in pass defense. So it isn't a coincidence to see the teams that ended up making it to the final four.

More than anything, you want to draft for positional value. So just looking at this team, what do we know? Let's start with the defense. While it had a crazy amount of talent on the DL, it was clear the pass rush was not anything close to elite when Ford was out with an injury. Obviously we were hit with injuries on that side of the ball around the same time which didn't help at all. But our pass defense was amazing for much of the season and that was largely due to having really good coverage backers and having two disciplined safeties on the back end. Both Ward and Tartt finally stayed healthy for most of the season and they completely took away the deep shots. Our corners as well were very solid, and Sherman was great, but I think the other factors led to our pass defense being damn near historical for much of the season. 

So do we have any needs at S or LB? No, we are set there with having three capable safeties and LBs. While Buckner was damn good, it is clear that having top level edge players make more of a difference. Bosa and Ford's win rates when they were on the field together was insanely good and there is a reason no offense lit us up when both were healthy....Minus maybe AZ in the first match up. So is there any edge defender worthy to take at #13? I haven't studied many edge rushers in this class but from what I have seen and heard, probably not. While I mentioned CB play in this defense wasn't as important as other positions for the pass defense, I would still take one of the top corners at #13. Why? Because Sherman is on his way out and we have a lot of uncertainty at that position going forward. Spoon started out great but fell apart late in the season and has not yet shown to be consistent for the entire season. Moseley brings his hard hat and will do his job, but there are some limitations there. And say if our pass rush was to slip or we have injuries at safety or LB, having legit cover corners WILL benefit the team big time. So that is why Henderson/Fulton are two players I am high on at #13. As for Kinlaw or interior DL? I just don't see the need for it. Give me good depth and top level edge players any day. We have that unless damn near half the DL gets hurt like last season. 

Offensively, you know that Staley like Sherman is on his last legs and will be gone soon. You have to look for a replacement ASAP. I thought Brunskill proved he at least deserved the opportunity fill that gap when Staley hangs them up, but for some reason the team has elected to play him at guard rather than tackle. Our interior OL is good in run blocking, but really limited in the passing game. For a team that runs as much play actions, that needs to be fixed. This is why I am all in on taking one of the top tackles in the draft that have the versatility to fill in inside until Staley retires. But you cannot ignore just how much better this offense was once Sanders got traded here. We were around the 12th-14th best offense before the trade, but after the trade became a legitimate top 5 unit. That was not by any accident either. The team has a lot of question marks at WR. We don't know if Pettis will ever contribute here after last season and while Bourne is solid....He is just that and better fit to be the 3rd WR than the starter. Having a game changer at WR to go along with Kittle, Deebo and our run game will be special. At that point as long as Jimmy stays healthy and continues to get more comfortable, this will continue being a top level offense. That to go along with the talent we have on defense? You continue fielding a contender.

Basically, you can go multiple ways in the first round and don't need to just be stuck on one thing. But positional value is a real thing and the only three positions I'm considering with our needs are:

WR

OT

CB

Any other position we draft for I will not be happy. Of course the tackle will be presumably playing inside in year one. As for QB, in particular Love? Once again, I just don't see it. I watched plenty of him as he played in the Mountain West, and at best you are going to get a competent QB. A few years down the road you will be hoping he gives you the type of season Jimmy gave us last year. You can say well, that will be a much cheaper option and that's fine if that is the argument, but we have a legitimate shot to win it all in the next few years. Do you REALLY risk that? I don't think so. 

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