Forge Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said: Value of this year's first is going to be higher. No guarantee where a team ends up falling to. You see teams trading 2nd rounders for future firsts, but when is the last time you have seen a straight up current 1st rounder traded for future 1st rounder? That's because teams with the potential to be bad aren't dumb enough to make that sort of trade. A future year top 12 pick is significantly more valuable than current year 31 in my opinion, and if you are a team that could fall into that, you can't take that risk. You don't even see teams trading second rounders for future firsts any more. I can't even remember the last time that happened. So it largely just depends on the team. If KC comes calling? Yes, give me next years first + something this year. Someone like Chicago or Denver comes calling? Here's #31, we look forward to having your pick next year. Since Dan specified a team picking in the top 10 of the second round, these are all fairly bad teams. I don't know how you get greedy with that when any of those ten could seriously crap the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Forge said: That's because teams with the potential to be bad aren't dumb enough to make that sort of trade. A future year top 12 pick is significantly more valuable than current year 31 in my opinion, and if you are a team that could fall into that, you can't take that risk. You don't even see teams trading second rounders for future firsts any more. I can't even remember the last time that happened. So it largely just depends on the team. If KC comes calling? Yes, give me next years first + something this year. Someone like Chicago or Denver comes calling? Here's #31, we look forward to having your pick next year. Since Dan specified a team picking in the top 10 of the second round, these are all fairly bad teams. I don't know how you get greedy with that when any of those ten could seriously crap the bed. So curious, what is worth more to you: 31 pick or future years 18th-20 pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said: So curious, what is worth more to you: 31 pick or future years 18th-20 pick? That's not how it works though. If it ends up being the 18th pick, okay, that's fine. Was it worth the trade? Eh, probably close. But I'm trading for a chance at having a much higher pick. Never said that there wasn't a certain degree of risk and gamble with that. If someone said flat out, I'll give you next years 18th pick for this years 31st, I'd think about it (would depend on who is on the board when we pick at 31). But we are talking about a number of bad teams here that could easily pick in the top 12 or better. And that risk is 100% worth getting "stuck" with the 18-20th pick the following year. Look at the Saints trade a couple of years ago where they got Kamara, that basically ended up being a wash. We gave them a third for a pick that ended up being a few slots higher the next year (we gave up the 67th, got back the 59th). Would you make that trade if you knew that was the return? Probably not. But nobody bad mouthed that trade at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Forge said: That's not how it works though. If it ends up being the 18th pick, okay, that's fine. Was it worth the trade? Eh, probably close. But I'm trading for a chance at having a much higher pick. Never said that there wasn't a certain degree of risk and gamble with that. If someone said flat out, I'll give you next years 18th pick for this years 31st, I'd think about it (would depend on who is on the board when we pick at 31). But we are talking about a number of bad teams here that could easily pick in the top 12 or better. And that risk is 100% worth getting "stuck" with the 18-20th pick the following year. Look at the Saints trade a couple of years ago where they got Kamara, that basically ended up being a wash. We gave them a third for a pick that ended up being a few slots higher the next year (we gave up the 67th, got back the 59th). Would you make that trade if you knew that was the return? Probably not. But nobody bad mouthed that trade at the time. No, I'm asking you what you value more, not what it is or isn't going to happen. So if you got 18-20th pick in future year for 31, would you take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just now, J-ALL-DAY said: No, I'm asking you what you value more, not what it is or isn't going to happen. So if you got 18-20th pick in future year for 31, would you take it? I answered that - said it would depend on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 I will say that I would hedge towards taking it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, Forge said: I will say that I would hedge towards taking it though Okay cool. So in that case then you will in most cases accept a first for future first offer. I was looking at probabilities and where you set your baseline at. But if 18-20 work in 2021, then that gives a clearer answer. I would say no to that deal personally. It doesn't add to the draft capital which is important as shown by the Ravens and the pick wouldn't be high enough for me to do it. Now obviously if a team like the Jags offer that deal, you take it. But as stated, they wouldn't be offering that type of deal. Maybe a team like the Chargers if they don't go QB with their first pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinerNation21 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Just did a mock on TheDraftNetwork and these were some of my options at 13: Jeudy Lamb Ruggs Chaisson Kinlaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherm Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 This thread should get a bit more action...lol Can I have a stud DT now at 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GW21 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, NinerNation21 said: Just did a mock on TheDraftNetwork and these were some of my options at 13: Jeudy Lamb Ruggs Chaisson Kinlaw 1 minute ago, sherm said: This thread should get a bit more action...lol Can I have a stud DT now at 13? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherm Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Just now, NinerNation21 said: Just did a mock on TheDraftNetwork and these were some of my options at 13: Jeudy Lamb Ruggs Chaisson Kinlaw I'm not gonna get my draft pants excited about Lamb only have them go deflated. Kinlaw would be awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinerNation21 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Gore Whore 21 said: Honestly, I threw in Chaisson and Kinlaw in the last purely out of value. If we stay at 13, it's Jeudy for me. I think he's everything Shanahan wants. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert or Love fall to our pick and get a nice package of picks for someone to move up and take one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said: Honestly, I threw in Chaisson and Kinlaw in the last purely out of value. If we stay at 13, it's Jeudy for me. I think he's everything Shanahan wants. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert or Love fall to our pick and get a nice package of picks for someone to move up and take one of them. As much as I would love Jeudy....or Lamb, is this really the draft to take a WR@13?? I have to think we're going to parlay #13 into more draft capital. I wouldn't be mad if it was a WR. But that's such a checkers move in a game of chess. I do think going after another stud D-Lineman would take some of the sting out of losing DeFo. It makes a ton of sense. Especially if we keep #31 and address WR there... Edited March 16, 2020 by 757-NINER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinerNation21 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, 757-NINER said: As much as I would love Jeudy....or Lamb, is this really the draft to take a WR@13?? I have to think we're going to parlay #13 into more draft capital. I wouldn't be mad if it was a WR. But that's such a checkers move in a game of chess. I do think going after another stud D-Lineman would take some of the sting out of losing DeFo. It makes a ton of sense. Especially if keep #31 and address WR there... The problem is, there are any stud D-Lineman to pick at 13. Chaisson and Kinlaw would be the best of the bunch. Epenesa's stock is free-falling, and I'm hearing rumors that teams think Derrick Brown is overvalued and not much more than a run stopper. Like I said, if we stick at 13, I think the best value is taking one of Jeudy, Ruggs, or Lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Now I gotta go back and watch some DT tape....hadn't watched one all year. Good thing there's nothing going on sports related that will distract me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts