Daniel Jones is looking better than Haskins

[HTTRDynasty]

2 hours ago, suffering_succotash said:

(Honest disclaimer: I am a Giants fan)

"Struggles against preseason D’s reliably tells us the player isn’t ready yet to succeed."

So, I do agree with this point. The topic of the thread is DJ vs Haskins. To that point, Haskins _has_ struggled against preseason defenses, while DJ has not. So, at the very least, shouldn't we be able to say that Haskins is not ready to start, and Dj might be?

Then if we take that to be true, can't we then admit that Gettlemen made the right decision in drafting Jones over Haskins? Isn't the QB who _might_ be ready to play against NFL starters worth more than the QB who definitely isn't?

This is the sort of short-term thinking that can ruin a franchise’s future. Discounting the fact that the two QB’s are being asked to do different things from each other within their respective schemes this preseason, it’s always been the case that Haskins was considered a long-term project rather than a day 1 starter, given his lack of experience at the college level. Jones has widely been regarded as the more “pro-ready” of the two, and he’s looked the part so far. That does not make Gettleman’s decision “right”, especially given the fact that he doesn’t even plan to start Jones going into the season, which lessens the benefit of drafting a “pro-ready” QB. 

Haskins has some things to clean up (all of which are coachable) but the reason the majority of people preferred him over Jones was due to what he could become if he had time to clean those issues up.  Looks like he’s going to be given that time this season, which makes me a happy fan. If Giants’ fans want to gloat about their “pro-ready” guy looking more ready for the pros during their first few preaseason games, and use that as a reason to justify the pick, be my guest, but don’t be surprised when people call you out for missing the point. 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, suffering_succotash said:

(Honest disclaimer: I am a Giants fan)

"Struggles against preseason D’s reliably tells us the player isn’t ready yet to succeed."

So, I do agree with this point. The topic of the thread is DJ vs Haskins. To that point, Haskins _has_ struggled against preseason defenses, while DJ has not. So, at the very least, shouldn't we be able to say that Haskins is not ready to start, and Dj might be?

Then if we take that to be true, can't we then admit that Gettlemen made the right decision in drafting Jones over Haskins? Isn't the QB who _might_ be ready to play against NFL starters worth more than the QB who definitely isn't?

Also, I think it's true that if DJ was playing the way Haskins has played, it would be used as validation for the criticism Gettleman has faced. I don't see why Haskins not playing well can't be used as vindication for the pick of Daniel Jones. If only in response to those who said that Haskins should have been picked in Jones stead.

The reasons why Jones could fail are different than the reasons why Haskins could fail.  

With Jones he’s the most pro-ready.  His placement / accuracy & toughness are already unquestioned.   Safer floor for sure because at worst he’s a 10-year backup.   The Q on whether he becomes a franchise level foundation QB is if his tools will succeed long term vs. NFL-starter speed and closing distance where the throwing windows are smaller.  And the complexity of the D schemes (which I believe he will learn to read but the processing required shortens the windows even more).   The fact Jones took long to succeed in college suggests this is still very possible.   The preseason level of competition doesn’t tell us much on either issue.  

Re: Haskins his tools are off the charts.  Placement / accuracy PLUS NFL caliber arm strength.   But the processing, read progression and D reading skills are way behind.   It’s why taking Haskins came with the disclaimer he would need a year to develop before being ready, given he was barely a 1-year starter at OSU.   He wasn’t supposed to be ready week 1.   How his processing skills develop over time will determine if he can become a franchise level foundation QB.   But it was always going to be that he wasn’t NFL-ready yet.   The physical tool ceiling is so much higher that if he does get there - bigger impact.    

The 2019 draft class was considered weak at the top because the top projection-tool guys were nowhere close to ready (Haskins, Lock) and the readiest guys had the lowest perceived ceiling because of the tool limits (Jones, Grier age 24).   Grier being sushi raw is a problem because he should be more pro ready and at age 24 it’s surest late.   And to clear  - guys with limited tool ceilings can break this evaluation if their intangibles counter the limits placed on their average physical tools (Watson exhibit A for arm strength).  So please don’t say I’m saying Jones will fail.  It’s just we haven’t seen the tests for this yet.

If the 2 guys had the same strength / weakness profile it might mean something.   But given what their weaknesses are...no, the preseason doesn’t tell me much on their NFL success path to be an impact starter.    If this was preseason 2020 and this was the result, sure.   But this early?  Only tells me that 2019 week 1 Jones is readier.  But that should have been the conclusion on draft day too.   It’s not the start that matters it’s the finish - but ppl keep wanting to get to the finish line now.  Patience. 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Broncofan

[Gmen]

I’m curious why several teams with questionable quarterback situations (Raiders, Broncos, Bengals) also passed on Haskins. We can speculate about which teams between 6 and 17 wanted or didn’t want Jones, but we know for a fact that they didn’t want Haskins. If the Redskins don’t take him, there’s a good chance he’s joining Drew Lock in the second round. 

[suffering_succotash]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

the reason the majority of people preferred him over Jones was due to what he could become if he had time to clean those issues up.

To use the line that Giants fans heard a lot this offseason: "Haskins could turn into anything, even a pro-ready QB!!"

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

That does not make Gettleman’s decision “right”, especially given the fact that he doesn’t even plan to start Jones going into the season, which lessens the benefit of drafting a “pro-ready” QB.

The reason why pro-ready QBs are so valuable (and they are valuable, prospects labeled as projects do not get drafted highly) is because how absolutely difficult it is to be "pro-ready". That title means a lot. It means that you can start (and by starting win games) in the NFL. Not something that a majority of QBs drafted could put on their resume. Using it to disparage Jones makes absolutely no sense. Pro-ready means you're floor is an NFL starter. You don't have to improve to become one, you are one, right now.

 

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Jones has widely been regarded as the more “pro-ready” of the two, and he’s looked the part so far.

This is false. Very few people gave that distinction (notably Charlie Casserly did) and sports illustrated thought the opposite. The narrative was not Jones is pro-ready and Haskins has potential. The narrative was that Jones stinks and probably shouldn't even be drafted in the first round, let alone top 10.

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, Gmen said:

I’m curious why several teams with questionable quarterback situations (Raiders, Broncos, Bengals) also passed on Haskins. We can speculate about which teams between 6 and 17 wanted or didn’t want Jones, but we know for a fact that they didn’t want Haskins. If the Redskins don’t take him, there’s a good chance he’s joining Drew Lock in the second round. 

The Raiders are a bit of a different situation given where they were picking, the fact that they still have Carr, etc. I won't begrudge them for thinking that Haskins wasn't good enough to be considered in the top 5, but they may have taken him with one of the other two first round picks if they weren't sold on Carr (though I never thought they should be taking a quarterback in this draft anyway - but I still have some confidence in Carr). We dont' know if they were ever looking at quarterback for the draft. 

The Broncos always seemed to be tied to Lock. That may have been an elway preference thing. Unsure about the Bengals- they may not have been looking at quarterback at all. 

I do think the online scouting community did seem to be higher on Haskins than the NFL 

[Broncofan]

27 minutes ago, Forge said:

The Raiders are a bit of a different situation given where they were picking, the fact that they still have Carr, etc. I won't begrudge them for thinking that Haskins wasn't good enough to be considered in the top 5, but they may have taken him with one of the other two first round picks if they weren't sold on Carr (though I never thought they should be taking a quarterback in this draft anyway - but I still have some confidence in Carr). We dont' know if they were ever looking at quarterback for the draft. 

The Broncos always seemed to be tied to Lock. That may have been an elway preference thing. Unsure about the Bengals- they may not have been looking at quarterback at all. 

I do think the online scouting community did seem to be higher on Haskins than the NFL 

For DEN & Lock (really Elway / Lock) absolutely.  Beat reporters had that duo link since the fall of 2018

The fanbase was terrified Lock would go 1.10 then 1.20.   Even 2.42 fans were split we wanted Risner so much.  Trading back up to 2.43 to get Lock is a result most of us can live with - not because we are more convinced in Lock than Haskins - but the risk taken by getting him as our 3rd player behind Fant & Risner makes it a lot more palatable if Lock fails.  

But yeah DEN was all in on Lock - for a lighter price.  IMO the talk of being Rd1 worthy was crazy.   So glad we didn’t spend that capital on him.   Remember they signed Flacco as a stop gap with essentially 3 1-year contracts with no dead money.   I’m known to be one of the biggest Lock skeptics to be clear - so it’s not like I’m selling him.   More that I can live with the cost spent.   I didn’t think any QB available was worth the 1st rounder.  Lock included.  

I’ll let CIN fans like @theJ, @TheVillain112 or others speak up, but I recall they seemed set on OL vs. the Devins at 1.11 and QB was nowhere near their radar predraft, just developmental Day 2/3 projects.      Thinking 2020 was the year to hit QB with Dalton locked up.   Their loyalty to Dalton is curious but it’s there.  

Edited August 28, 2019 by Broncofan

[suffering_succotash]

17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The reasons why Jones could fail are different than the reasons why Haskins could fail.  

With Jones he’s the most pro-ready.  His placement / accuracy & toughness are already unquestioned.   Safer floor for sure because at worst he’s a 10-year backup.   The Q on whether he becomes a franchise level foundation QB is if his tools will succeed long term vs. NFL-starter speed and closing distance where the throwing windows are smaller.  And the complexity of the D schemes (which I believe he will learn to read but the processing required shortens the windows even more).   The fact Jones took long to succeed in college suggests this is still very possible.   The preseason level of competition doesn’t tell us much on either issue.  

Re: Haskins his tools are off the charts.  Placement / accuracy PLUS NFL caliber arm strength.   But the processing, read progression and D reading skills are way behind.   It’s why taking Haskins came with the disclaimer he would need a year to develop before being ready, given he was barely a 1-year starter at OSU.   He wasn’t supposed to be ready week 1.   How his processing skills develop over time will determine if he can become a franchise level foundation QB.   But it was always going to be NFL-ready.   The physical tool ceiling is so much higher that if he does get there - bigger impact.    

The 2019 draft class was considered weak because the top projection-tool guys were nowhere close to ready (Haskins, Lock) and the readiest guys had the lowest perceived ceiling because of the tool limits (Jones, Grier age 24).   Again - guys with limited tool ceilings can break this evaluation if their intangibles counter the limits placed on their average physical tools (Watson exhibit A for arm strength).  So please don’t say I’m saying Jones will fail.  It’s just we haven’t seen the tests for this yet.

If the 2 guys had the same strength / weakness profile it might mean something.   But given what their weaknesses are...no, the preseason doesn’t tell me much on their NFL success path to be an impact starter.    If this was preseason 2020 and this was the result, sure.   But this early?  Only tells me that 2019 week 1 Jones is readier.  But that should have been the conclusion on draft day too.   It’s not the start that matters it’s the finish - but ppl keep wanting to get to the finish line now.  Patience.

You know, I really don't disagree with this post. Other than that I don't believe Jones was the consensus "Pro-ready" guy before or after the draft.

I also am curious about your opinion developing arm strength in the NFL. It seems to be the one trait that you think is a plus for Haskins over Jones (not that I disagree). Do you think it's possible for a QB to develop a stronger arm?

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I’ll let CIN fans like @theJ, @TheVillain112 or others speak up, but I recall they seemed set on OL vs. the Devins at 1.11 and QB was nowhere near their radar predraft, just developmental Day 2/3 projects.      Thinking 2020 was the year to hit QB with Dalton locked up.   Their loyalty to Dalton is curious but it’s there.  

 I think if you take a quarterback at 11, you're committing to a "rebuild". And while we as outside fans would understand that decision at the particular point in time, my interpretation of the Bengals and their front office (formed from conversations with Bengals fans over potentially trading AJ Green) is that the Bengals FO is not ready or willing to dive into, and admit, to a rebuild at this current point in time. 

[Broncofan]

26 minutes ago, suffering_succotash said:

You know, I really don't disagree with this post. Other than that I don't believe Jones was the consensus "Pro-ready" guy before or after the draft.

I also am curious about your opinion developing arm strength in the NFL. It seems to be the one trait that you think is a plus for Haskins over Jones (not that I disagree). Do you think it's possible for a QB to develop a stronger arm?

Not if a guy is 22-23, skinny as hell for his frame, or has awful mechanics that are responsible.  Cutcliffe’s tutelage ensures Jones training and mechanics aren’t the issue.  Part of the Q on his ceiling.  Brady was wiry and his mechanics needed fixing.   Jones is fully grown and his mechanics appear solid to me and smarter ppl confirm. 

But I think there are a clear way to overcome average arm strength and be an elite franchise QB - if the processing / anticipation skills are elite.  It’s what we are seeing with Watson & obv Joe Montana is the gold standard for this type.   Jones is bright & smart and has great accuracy / placement in short - intermediate throws.   So it’s not like it’s a blind hope.  But it’s also way more commonplace that the guy isn’t quite great enough in the other areas to overcome the physical limits.  And injury is more likely to be career altering given there’s no physical reserve to meet the minimum threshold to play effectively left (why a serious Watson injury is a nightmare long term, not just that season).  

If there’s a QB who can be elite with average arm strength, its guys with great  accuracy / placement and elite processing skills.    Jones already has the placement / accuracy.   But if those other processing skills aren’t elite just OK to good then that’s how you end up with an Andy Dalton type level of play (not exact skill profile but outcome it’s useful to note).  And we just can’t tell from the preseason where those are at.   

 

PS - if ppl didn’t think he was polished then they were piling on.  That was never the Q IMO.  Read our DEN Forum Draft QB thread it’s littered with posters all recognizing this.   Myself included.  Like I said even in our DEN forum thread in the spring - Jones clearly had the  safest floor with his skill profile.  The Q is whether it’s franchise QB level outcome or not.  Day 2-3 prices the floor is an OK outcome.  But Rd1 it’s franchise level or bust.  And nothing we see so far in the preseason really speaks to that...for any rookie QB.  

Edited August 28, 2019 by Broncofan

[suffering_succotash]

21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Not if a guy is 22-23, or has awful mechanics that are responsible.  Cutcliffe’s tutelage ensures Jones training and mechanics aren’t the issue.  Part of the Q on his ceiling. 

But I think there are a clear way to overcome average arm strength - if the processing / anticipation skills are elite.  It’s what we are seeing with Watson & obv Joe Montana is the gold standard for this type.   Jones is bright & smart and has great accuracy / placement in short - intermediate throws.   So it’s not like it’s a blind hope.   But if those other skills aren’t elite just OK to good then that’s how you end up with an Andy Dalton type level of play (not exact skill profile but outcome it’s useful to note). 

Gotcha. Thanks for the response. The waiting to see is whole point of sports fandom, right?

[NJC33]

20 hours ago, Gmen said:

 Darnold sucked as a rookie, yet he's getting a pass because of the predraft hype.

Darnold experienced a roller coaster of a rookie year, as should’ve been expected from the youngest starting QB in nfl history. I don’t think anyone who actually watched him play would say he “sucked”. Did you miss his final 4 games of the season? Are you blindly looking at year end statistics?He has flashed more than enough to this point to warrant the hype.

 

As for Daniels Jones, his accuracy/arm strength have been far more impressive than originally advertised and that should translate to regular season games. However, that doesn’t neglect the fact that it’s preseason. Can we wait till we see him against actual competition to pass judgement? You do realize he wouldn’t be the first rookie to flash in preseason/camp and flop in the regular season? 

 

Giants fans should be thrilled at what they’ve seen from Jones so far. He’s been excellent. People who hated the pick ... can still hate the pick. Both are possible. No one is right. Not yet at least .. 

 

[theJ]

53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I’ll let CIN fans like @theJ, @TheVillain112 or others speak up, but I recall they seemed set on OL vs. the Devins at 1.11 and QB was nowhere near their radar predraft, just developmental Day 2/3 projects.      Thinking 2020 was the year to hit QB with Dalton locked up.   Their loyalty to Dalton is curious but it’s there.  

It's true.  They didn't seem to be considering QB at all in that spot.

[TheVillain112]

56 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 I’ll let CIN fans like @theJ, @TheVillain112 or others speak up, but I recall they seemed set on OL vs. the Devins at 1.11 and QB was nowhere near their radar predraft, just developmental Day 2/3 projects.      Thinking 2020 was the year to hit QB with Dalton locked up.   Their loyalty to Dalton is curious but it’s there.  

There was some talk that the Bengals liked Daniel Jones, which I could see with Zac Taylor's system.  But nothing (legitimate) regarding Lock that I can recall.  You are correct the Devins and OL is where their focus was...

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, suffering_succotash said:

To use the line that Giants fans heard a lot this offseason: "Haskins could turn into anything, even a pro-ready QB!!"

Umm, okay... good one?

1 hour ago, suffering_succotash said:

The reason why pro-ready QBs are so valuable (and they are valuable, prospects labeled as projects do not get drafted highly) is because how absolutely difficult it is to be "pro-ready". That title means a lot. It means that you can start (and by starting win games) in the NFL. Not something that a majority of QBs drafted could put on their resume. Using it to disparage Jones makes absolutely no sense. Pro-ready means you're floor is an NFL starter. You don't have to improve to become one, you are one, right now.

You're definitely over-hyping the "pro-ready" title here.  There are a lot of veteran backups in the league that were pro-ready when they came out.  So no, the floor for "pro-ready" QB's coming out of college is not an NFL starter. 

1 hour ago, suffering_succotash said:

This is false. Very few people gave that distinction (notably Charlie Casserly did) and sports illustrated thought the opposite. The narrative was not Jones is pro-ready and Haskins has potential. The narrative was that Jones stinks and probably shouldn't even be drafted in the first round, let alone top 10.

You must not have watched or read much draft coverage.  Just because people thought he wasn't deserving of a 1st round pick didn't mean they didn't think his skill-set was pro-ready, especially more pro-ready than Haskins.  Then again, pro-ready to you means automatic starter, so I could see why you would think that.

[Gmen]

55 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Not if a guy is 22-23, or has awful mechanics that are responsible.  Cutcliffe’s tutelage ensures Jones training and mechanics aren’t the issue.  Part of the Q on his ceiling. 

But I think there are a clear way to overcome average arm strength - if the processing / anticipation skills are elite.  It’s what we are seeing with Watson & obv Joe Montana is the gold standard for this type.   Jones is bright & smart and has great accuracy / placement in short - intermediate throws.   So it’s not like it’s a blind hope.   But if those other skills aren’t elite just OK to good then that’s how you end up with an Andy Dalton type level of play (not exact skill profile but outcome it’s useful to note). 

I’ve posted several quotes and articles praising Jones specifically for his arm strength and deep passing. A beat writer who was in Philly for Wentz’ rookie season  wrote an article saying that Jones has more arm talent than Wentz. There are numerous videos from Giants camp of Jones dropping dimes 50 yards downfield.  Combined with your assessment, it would appear Jones doesn’t have a real weakness.  I guess nobody should be surprised that he’s been lighting it up. 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Gmen