Soggust Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Gmen said: As a Browns fan, are you currently writing this with a bag over your head? Dak is a middle of the pack quarterback in this league. He’s a game manager, albeit a very efficient one. No defense facing the Cowboys is worried about stopping the passing game. In fact, they dare the Cowboys to pass because of the running game. Jones can be so much more than a game manager. He has all the tools to be a top 10 quarterback in this league. That is such a flawed argument. We have seen nothing from Jones yet. Until he proves himself at the pro level, I have much more confidence in Dak becoming a top-10 QB than I do a complete unknown. At least Dak has shown the ability to limit turnovers and be smart with the football. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Soggust said: That is such a flawed argument. We have seen nothing from Jones yet. Until he proves himself at the pro level, I have much more confidence in Dak becoming a top-10 QB than I do a complete unknown. At least Dak has shown the ability to limit turnovers and be smart with the football. I’d rather have a complete unknown with Jones’ skill set on rookie contract, over a known average quarterback taking up $35 million per year in cap space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duoathome Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 (edited) I'm a Redskins fan. I agree with Matt's, though. Dak is really too close to Wentz to separate them from each other. They've both been awesome* ! They've both sucked** ! I'd place Goff, Wentz, Prescott, and Watson in the same tier, just ahead of Garropolo, Trubisky, Dalton and Darnold. *With arguably the best supporting cast in the league, or at least top 10 **With arguably the worst supporting cast in the league, or at least bottom-five Edited August 13, 2019 by Duoathome Forgot Dalton. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 47 minutes ago, Buckweath said: Dak's floor is Alex Smith?? More like his floor is that in 3-4 years he will be a backup in this league. Alex Smith during his Chiefs tenure is an excellent comparison for Dak. Don't forget Smith had that one year of borderline MVP play too. They are good game manager QBs who can win a SB but who are/were unlikely to ever win one and need everything around them to be near perfect to get that trophy. It's not fun to read but the truth is Dak Prescott is anything between likely and very likely never to win the Superbowl. But well, it's damn hard to win a SB. Daks first 3 seasons match Alex Smiths last 3 full seasons (including division titles). The difference being Dak had more total TDs and was much better in the playoffs. Daks supporting cast + coaching was worse, which is why I think its his floor. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Alex+Smith&player_id1_select=Alex+Smith&fromyear_1=2015&toyear_1=2017&player_id1=SmitAl03&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Dak+Prescott&player_id2_select=Dak+Prescott&fromyear_2=2016&toyear_2=2018&player_id2=PresDa01&idx=players 35 minutes ago, Soggust said: Zeke faced a stacked box on 25% of his carries. No one with a higher % in the league eclipsed 215 carries. Zeke had over 300. What makes you think the Cowboys don't face a lot of stacked boxes? Zeke was 20th in facing stacked boxes. 25% is not an exorbitant number - its very middle of the pack. The majority of the guys above him where #1 RBs. And theres another 16 backs that were all within 5% below him. Many of those were #1 backs. Zeke carried the ball a ton. But he didnt force stacked boxes at a high rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Gmen said: I’d rather have a complete unknown with Jones’ skill set on rookie contract, over a known average quarterback taking up $35 million per year in cap space. Thats hilarious. Your QB is the most average guy ever and also the highest paid QB ever (after this year). And you have defended him like crazy for years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Zeke was 20th in facing stacked boxes. 25% is not an exorbitant number - its very middle of the pack. The majority of the guys above him where #1 RBs. And theres another 16 backs that were all within 5% below him. Many of those were #1 backs. Zeke carried the ball a ton. But he didnt force stacked boxes at a high rate. I disagree that the majority of guys above him were #1 RBs (unless our definitions of #1 RBs are different). Let's take a look at the guys above him: Clear #1 RBs--------------------- Leonard Fournette Nick Chubb Derrick Henry James Conner Melvin Gordon Sony Michel RBBC---------------------- Matt Breida Alfred Morris Alex Collins Isaiah Crowell Elijah McGuire Backup RBs---------------------- LeGarrette Blount Royce Freeman Carlos Hyde Austin Ekeler Latavius Murray Mark Ingram You may disagree on a placement here or there, but I count roughly 6 legitimate RB1s ahead of him (7 if you make the case for Ingram). Certainly, that is not the majority of people ahead of him. Going even further - in 2018, Melvin Gordon was #20 in rushing attempts. He had 175 attempts (which seems like a decent cutoff for RB1 - top 20). Of this list, 5 RBs were in the top 20 of rushing attempts. Sure if you adjust 5%, things open up, but we are also talking about 25%, so 5% is a big swing. Look, I'm not saying that he had some astronomical anomaly of a year at 25%, but he's certainly seeing his fair share of stacked boxes, especially when you consider his massive workload. Remember, it was originally phrased as "why doesn't he face a lot of stacked boxes". Considering his volume of carries, he actually saw more stacked boxes than anyone else in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 I would also add that these statistics as a whole are pretty misleading. These statistics are what % of the time the RB faced a stacked box and still ran. It doesn’t really tell us what was being discussed about Dak throwing on 8 man fronts. A better metric would be how many times Dak threw vs 8 man fronts but I don’t know if that information exists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, Soggust said: I disagree that the majority of guys above him were #1 RBs (unless our definitions of #1 RBs are different). Let's take a look at the guys above him: Clear #1 RBs--------------------- Leonard Fournette Nick Chubb Derrick Henry James Conner Melvin Gordon Sony Michel RBBC---------------------- Matt Breida Alfred Morris Alex Collins Isaiah Crowell Elijah McGuire Backup RBs---------------------- LeGarrette Blount Royce Freeman Carlos Hyde Austin Ekeler Latavius Murray Mark Ingram You may disagree on a placement here or there, but I count roughly 6 legitimate RB1s ahead of him (7 if you make the case for Ingram). Certainly, that is not the majority of people ahead of him. Going even further - in 2018, Melvin Gordon was #20 in rushing attempts. He had 175 attempts (which seems like a decent cutoff for RB1 - top 20). Of this list, 5 RBs were in the top 20 of rushing attempts. Sure if you adjust 5%, things open up, but we are also talking about 25%, so 5% is a big swing. Look, I'm not saying that he had some astronomical anomaly of a year at 25%, but he's certainly seeing his fair share of stacked boxes, especially when you consider his massive workload. Remember, it was originally phrased as "why doesn't he face a lot of stacked boxes". Considering his volume of carries, he actually saw more stacked boxes than anyone else in the league. He is spot 20 on a list of 36 players from 20% and above. You also missed some people on your list (like Mark Ingram). On another note: PFF says Dak would get $40m on the open market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steelersfan43 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: He is spot 20 on a list of 36 players from 20% and above. You also missed some people on your list (like Mark Ingram). On another note: PFF says Dak would get $40m on the open market. Kirk Cousins who was considered better at this time than Dak right now had not even had that ... of course I know that the salary have risen a lot at this position since but Cousins had only slightly higher than Stafford at this time. The market for QB will become out of control if Prescott has a higher salary than Russell Wilson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Steelersfan43 said: Kirk Cousins who was considered better at this time than Dak right now had not even had that No he wasnt. Maybe by some people, but it wasnt the majority perception. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: He is spot 20 on a list of 36 players from 20% and above. You also missed some people on your list (like Mark Ingram). Nope. He’s there. I even mentioned him in my comment below. Regardless, my point was that Zeke faced more stacked boxes than anyone in the league last year, but again we are arguing something that really doesn’t tell us anything with regards to what kind of defenses Dak threw against, so no point in really hashing it out. I do agree with you that Dak is better than people are giving him credit for. Is he worth 35-40m? I’m not sure, but he’s certainly proved a lot more than Daniel Jones at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 This thread wont age well when Dax thoroughly outplays Mahomes in 2019, but ok guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Soggust said: Nope. He’s there. I even mentioned him in my comment below. Regardless, my point was that Zeke faced more stacked boxes than anyone in the league last year, but again we are arguing something that really doesn’t tell us anything with regards to what kind of defenses Dak threw against, so no point in really hashing it out. I do agree with you that Dak is better than people are giving him credit for. Is he worth 35-40m? I’m not sure, but he’s certainly proved a lot more than Daniel Jones at this point. By that logic, zeke also faced bottom # of stacked boxes (with out looking it up) because 75% of his 300 touches were less than 8 man fronts. Edited August 13, 2019 by Matts4313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocky_rams Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Dak’s floor is Trent Dilfer and his ceiling is Alex Smith (before the horrible injury) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 5 hours ago, Soggust said: That is such a flawed argument. We have seen nothing from Jones yet. Until he proves himself at the pro level, I have much more confidence in Dak becoming a top-10 QB than I do a complete unknown. At least Dak has shown the ability to limit turnovers and be smart with the football. Which starting QB doesn’t have the physical tools to be a top-10 QB, anyway? It’s a pretty pointless point to make. It’s not a very physically demanding position. Majority of NFL QB busts have had the tools to be great, they just never amounted to anything close to that. Unless we’re including “tools” as mental acuity too - in which case, I don’t know how anyone can possibly say, with any legitimate reasoning, that Daniel Jones has any sort of unseen ability that separates him from his peers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.